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This theory is the "father" of all theories
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hikitty
Master |
18-Sep-2006 00:23
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Sorry, lah. Font must have have "hijacked" by Internet Explorer. Difficulty in reading - why not read it with a magnifying or reading glass? Or sleepy? Then go to bed and try reading it tmr. With Firefox server, font has not been "hijacked" before. |
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teeth53
Supreme |
17-Sep-2006 23:44
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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It is very difficult to read lehh.......What Fonts & Size U used ahh...?? |
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hikitty
Master |
17-Sep-2006 19:07
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Thanks everyone for the very learned responses. Consistently high volumes with gradual increases in price are USUALLY not DEFINITELY signs of support, NOT a sudden surge in price and volume. But at times, the uptrend will continue dip to because of T + 3 or T+5. The lesson is always to trade with caution as the tide often turns against technical analysis. Traders often use the slightest fresh lead reported in the media or circulated by rumourmongers to play up or down any stock for a few days when the leadt affects its fundamentals one year ahead.!!! An example in point not to be fooled by the foregoing observation is LMA with the following misleading trading pattern: 22Aug closed 755 cts Total volume 2186 lots high 76 cts low 745 cents 23Aug closed 80 cts Total volume 3122 lots high 80 cts low 755cts 24Aug closed 785cts Total volume 3571 high 84 cts low 785cts The upsurge did not continue thereafter, although support has continued with low volumes with low prices from 76cts to 77cts, a sign that a breakout may occur soon. The only catch - when? The point is so long as one is NOT a trader, it is OK to buy it now as may be a sign of trend reversal (It is AN undervalued fundamentally strong stock. Its IPO price in March 2005 was 88 cents ) It may also dip again to weed out the weak holders. Agree? |
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ten4one
Master |
17-Sep-2006 17:23
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If you could get 2 out of 3 right you're very good as a Trader. Another point to remember is it is not how many rights or wrongs you made when you trade. It is the size of your bets when you're right against your wrongs.Cheers!!! |
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Sporeguy
Elite |
17-Sep-2006 10:25
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In the MMI thread, it is estimated that height of wave 3 is $1.03. It ended up at Max Price at $1.02 which is very close to $1.03. So if one can predict 2 correct out of 3 stocks, then that would be good enough. |
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ten4one
Master |
17-Sep-2006 09:48
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On papers everything is clear as crystal captured by our eyes and digested by our brains in one dimension. When you come to the 'real thing' your brain don't have the leisure to freeze the picture as seen by your eyes. Once the Market opens, you'll know whether you're on the right side or wrong side. Prior to that it is all predictions and market consensus. It is this herds instinct that consents and moves the Markets at that point of time. Therefore, if you could predict that event or know b4 hand, which, of course, is almost impossible you coud be a very rich guy/gal long ago. Cheers!!!!!!! You won't know for sure the result until it happens, right??????????? |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
17-Sep-2006 09:46
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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I agree with allantachc on this point -when prices break new high with significant volume, it usually continues to scale new highs.I have found the above to be true most of the time. It just reaffirms that price trends do exist. I do not use support or resistance levels because I don't see the need to do so... I just follow the trend. Trend is everything. As for cutting loss, I have a stop loss rule at 3-5% loss from the last price peak. |
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Sporeguy
Elite |
16-Sep-2006 22:32
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It was stated in the forum that according to research that one should cut lost if price dropped by 8%. This may not tally with some other retracement theory. Take the case of MMI, the 3rd wave travelled from 66c to $1.03 which gave an increase of 37c. One theory stated that the support will be at 61.8% retracement of the increment, i.e 0.618x37=23c. Thus the support price will be at $1.03-23c=80c. But 92% of $1.03 is 93c if one follows the cut lost at 8%. Anyone care to discuss further? |
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allantanhc
Veteran |
15-Sep-2006 16:33
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There are good reasons for stocks to break new high. Improvement in earnings that exceeds market expectation, new products/innovations that will propel the company's future earnings, new contract or successfully venturing into new markets, company restructuring with new management or new products/services are just few of these reasons. Hence, when prices break new high with significant volume, it usually continues to scale new highs. This is partly due to the herd instinct of market followers who will jump in to have a slice of the action and profit. The price will ultimately correct itself when it runs ahead of its fundamentals. I do not think anyone can predict how long will the uptrend last. Most will not care any how as long as they can go in and get out in time and make a profit. So, on your point : when any stock has rallied upwards for too long (look at its chart to detect its trend, discounting the effects of geopolitical situations) and remains range bound (trading band), it may not be the time to buy it. I think this is being prudent as we do not know whether its next move is up or down. However, if the price again breaks out of its range and scale new high, should we buy? I think the answer is yes. What if it turns out to be at the peak? It is possible and the way out is to recognise that we have made a wrong trading decision and get out as soon as it breaks our stop loss point which is not more than 8% of our entry price. This strategy has been addressed many times in this forum by other more informed and learned members before. Personally, I have practised it and am convinced that this is a good strategy. Do you agree? |
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hikitty
Master |
15-Sep-2006 15:35
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A stock at its peak, however, rosy its fundamentals, will dip, say at least 30% after usually a maximum of two peaks because individual syndicates or funds cannot continue to hold it (or stomach it) at high prices forever. When its clients serve notice to sell (of at least seven days), or before the fund reaches its maturity date, it has to liquidate its entire holding of that particular stock. They may need to rotate their funds to buy undervalued stocks which are just on the upswing. In both instances, it may then tumble like dominoes. When any stock has rallied upwards for too long (look at its chart to detect its trend, discounting the effects of geopolitical situations) and remains range bound (trading band), it may not be the time to buy it. Agree? |
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