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Latest Forum Topics / Swiber  Post Reply
Swiber - recommended as a buy by Westcomb
knightrider
Elite
26-Dec-2006 09:25     
 
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Preferred service provider with integrated offshore services: Swiber prides itself over its ability to offer both offshore marine support services and offshore engineering, procurement, construction, installation and commission (EPCIC) services to customers in the offshore oil and gas industry. It will be the preferred service provider with dual capabilities as it has better control over the coordination and streamlining of work processes of the offshore oil and gas projects, and is able to reduce the risk of potential project disruption or delay and achieve cost efficiency.

Enhanced offshore EPCIC capabilities: The group's offshore EPCIC services in the installation of mooring systems for FSOs or FPSOs, installation of SPM buoys and jackets or topsides, laying of offshore pipelines and launching of jackets during the development phase of an offshore oil and gas project, as well as in the maintenance and refurbishment of SPM buoys and mooring systems during the production phase, will continue to be in strong demand, mirroring the current boom in oil and gas exploration, development and production activities. Its enhanced offshore EPCIC capabilities will elevate the group's positioning to undertake more complex and higher value projects.

Aggressive offshore marine support vessel fleet expansion: With an increased fleet size and a wider spread of vessels, from nine vessels as at Sept 17 to 21 vessels plus one pipelay barge by FY07, the group is now ready to reduce its reliance on third-party vessels and increase the utilisation of its own fleet. Its move up the value chain with specialised vessels, coupled with the upward trend in chartering rates, will give a boost to the group's performance.

Risk of oversupply of offshore marine supply vessels and cost overruns for offshore EPCIC projects: Any adverse development in the markets where the group operates, which leads to an oversupply of offshore marine supply vessels and a corresponding reduction in charter rates, will adversely affect the group's profitability. Further, there is the risk of cost overrun if the project is not properly managed. The group may also have to bear the risk of delays arising from weather conditions or shortage of skilled labour or raw materials.

Growth potential from existing markets and new market, India, in particular: Growth will continue to be driven by its three key markets - Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. Contributions from India, its next significant growth market, will increase rapidly as the group has already secured contracts from BG Exploration India, and has formed a JV company in India to establish a stronger foothold in India.

Valuation and recommendation: Swiber will emerge as a leading player in offshore services, following its aggressive business expansion and timely positioning to ride on the vibrant offshore oil and gas industry. Net earnings will grow at a CAGR of 68 per cent over FY06-FY08, reflecting the positive impact of its capacity expansion and the robust industry dynamics.

Based on estimated net earnings of US$10.2 million in FY06, US$18.3 million in FY07, and US$28.7 million in FY08, it is currently trading at PEs of 16.7 times for FY06 (based on weighted share capital), 11.8 times for FY07 and 7.5 times for FY08. Forward valuation is attractive. Pegging its valuation at 13 times blended FY07-FY08 earnings, our 12-month price target is S$1.25.
BUY, by westcomb
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tanglinboy
Elite
22-Dec-2006 20:03     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Thanks rogue_trader! I have posted your table in another thread! Good work man!
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rogue_trader
Master
22-Dec-2006 19:46     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Thanks for the good post & comments. Just hope that the chart can be of a wee wee bit of usefulness to fellow forumeers. If still need anything can let me know as I on and off will go and do/find this types of info for easy reference. Sometimes my reminsers will also forward me a lots of info which I find it very "hard" to digest.
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iPunter
Supreme
22-Dec-2006 13:15     
 
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Rogue-trader...

You are simply marvellous , man !...

It's great to have you in this hangout... Well done, friend.
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Ricardo
Member
22-Dec-2006 11:07     
 
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Hi rogue-trader, Senior,

Thanks for the well tabulated info. Great...
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rogue_trader
Master
22-Dec-2006 02:57     
 
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Name

Last
Done
($)

IPO
Price
($)

List Date

ChinaEnergy

0.935

0.830

21/12/2006

Babcock&Brown

1.010

1.060

20/12/2006

Chemoil US$

0.525

0.450

14/12/2006

First REIT

0.720

0.710

11/12/2006

CapitaRChina

1.770

1.130

08/12/2006

HsuFuChi

1.050

0.850

01/12/2006

Riverstone

0.280

0.260

20/11/2006

Sitra

0.305

0.210

17/11/2006

Gems TV

1.380

1.080

10/11/2006

Swiber

0.900

0.355

08/11/2006

StraitsAsia

0.650

0.600

03/11/2006

Ouhua

0.470

0.380

03/11/2006

TexchemPack

0.310

0.400

02/11/2006

BerlianLaju

0.280

0.320

30/10/2006

ChinaBearing

0.490

0.320

20/10/2006

SinoTechfib

1.180

0.565

20/10/2006

Plastoform

0.190

0.230

12/10/2006

ChinaKangda

0.450

0.460

09/10/2006

Epure

1.490

0.650

06/10/2006

Pan Hong

0.465

0.350

20/09/2006

ChinaPDye

0.220

0.270

07/09/2006

Synear

1.440

0.540

18/08/2006

Cambridge

0.740

0.680

25/07/2006

CDL HTrust

1.450

0.830

19/07/2006

FrasersCT

1.450

1.030

05/07/2006

Yanlord

2.150

1.080

22/06/2006

BanyanTree

1.440

0.970

14/06/2006

Gallant

0.920

0.500

06/06/2006

OrientCent

0.870

0.350

01/06/2006

THBEV

0.285

0.280

30/05/2006

PacShipTr US$

0.420

0.450

26/05/2006

Link Hi

0.195

0.250

22/05/2006

Lorenzo

0.210

0.220

11/05/2006

Hengxin

0.640

0.250

11/05/2006

NatCool

0.300

0.200

10/05/2006

ChinaPreci

0.390

0.300

08/05/2006

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singaporegal
Supreme
21-Dec-2006 07:35     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hi all,

Was reading your conversation about using TA for this counter. I wouldn't use TA for this counter yet because there's not enough numerical data yet. At least 6 months worth of data would be needed.
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iPunter
Supreme
21-Dec-2006 07:33     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Not information.... just a listing of all the IPO's in 2006 so friends here can have a convenient reference... :)
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rogue_trader
Master
21-Dec-2006 01:57     
 
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 Alert Admin 		iPunter, what are the informations that you need in those IPOs "floated" in 2006?
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iPunter
Supreme
21-Dec-2006 01:54     
 
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Just a suggestion...

For our benefit, it would be useful if someone well-versed in IPO issues can come up with a table of all IPO's floated in the year 2006 so we can do some comparison on them.

Anyone willing to do us forummers a favour?...  :)
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rogue_trader
Master
21-Dec-2006 01:44     
 
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 Alert Admin 		The trading time frame for this counter is too "short" to be able to do an accurate TA on it as there is no "obivious trend" to be read from the indicators. If one applied A/D Lines & Chaikin, one can see that the prices respond "quite well" to the indicators but one can't be able to "derive" the trend.
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bunbun
Senior
21-Dec-2006 01:09     
 
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hikitty, thanks for your advice. i will 'react' accordingly :)

merry christmas!
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hikitty
Master
20-Dec-2006 16:32     
 
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Hi bunbun - it depends on your time frame and "risk appetite"whether to take profit at any point of time.  Westcomb's posting, or my comments  shd not be treated as an inducement to buy or sell.   Gurus - pse advise whether TA on this share is possible (just started being traded on 8 November 2006)?

Hi Lawrenchoo - has been "relishing"  the fate of the daredevil short sellers and the contra players.  Sometimes either party can be caught on the wrong feet and lose $$$.  This is why I advise buying the quantity that one can afford to hold  at the present "lelong price" for  its potential (not guaranteed, pse) gain  next or next few months.  Pse don't panick to sell any share when  selling (by short sellers or contra players) takes place if the earnings growth is positive.  It's irrational to assume that in a selldown (accumulating at low price) or buy-up,  everyone who bought will definitely lose, unless the company is on the verge of receivership (e.g. China Aviation Oil).   Agree?
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bunbun
Senior
20-Dec-2006 15:35     
 
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Hi Kitty, i tried to do the TA for swiber last night but faced some difficulties (which some of the gurus had advised me kindly on how to do it). nonetheless, i still went in last night to q. Was very tempted to take the profits and run off this morning but resisted.

i do hope you are right on this :)
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Lawrenchoo
Member
20-Dec-2006 14:50     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hi Kitty, you seem very interested in this counter, be it short or long.
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hikitty
Master
20-Dec-2006 10:07     
 
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Targeted price of $1.25 is achievable because of its positive earnings growth.  According to Westcomb's report, Swiber, its positive earnings growth is positve based on estimated net earnings of US$10.2m in FY 06, US$18.3m in FY07 and US$28.7m in FY 08 (juz according to its new businesses confirmed recently - more contracts may be in the pipeline)  It is currrently trading at PE ratio of 16.7x for FY06(based on weighted share capital), 11.8x for FY07 and 7.5x for FY08. Forward valuation is attractive
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hikitty
Master
20-Dec-2006 09:28     
 
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Christmas year-end  lelong sale!  Grab them at the present low prices b4 the big players  do very quickly!   Buy what you can afford to hold for the targeted price of S$1.25 (juz  my group's thinking - it may hit this price in January 2007 for all u know) according to Westcomb broker's report on 18 December 2006. 
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