Latest Forum Topics / SingShipping Last:0.24 -0.005 | Post Reply |
SP Ships - What do buyers have in mind?
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shplayer
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02-Aug-2006 21:53
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This article in today's BT. No effect on share price but think the double Hungry Ghost month is bad luck for Ow. Man working on recovery of Mitsui ship killed in fall
(LONDON) A member of the recovery team sent to assist a Mitsui OSK cargo ship that foundered off Alaska was killed during a fall, Mitsui said. (LONDON) A member of the recovery team sent to assist a Mitsui OSK cargo ship that foundered off Alaska was killed during a fall, Mitsui said. The man died from injuries suffered when he fell onto the ship's deck while returning from an inspection of the vessel, Mitsui said on Monday. Mitsui's Cougar Ace, which lies 140 miles south of the Aleutian Islands, overturned on July 2 when it began to take on water while emptying its ballast tanks. The vessel has at least 4,700 Mazda Motor Corp vehicles on board, worth US$117.5 million. The ship remains stable, with no damage to the engine room or to cargo on the two decks the team was able to survey, Mitsui said. The Cougar Ace has 14 cargo decks for carrying cars. The first of five other vessels dispatched to right and then tow away the ship was scheduled to arrive on Monday. - Bloomberg |
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sandbox
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27-Jul-2006 13:46
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Hi shplayer, No worries. Thanks for the clarification. Cheers. |
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shplayer
Elite |
27-Jul-2006 13:10
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sandbox, Ref my earlier thread, I reviewed the numbers in my forecast....the forecast eps for FY07 should be 2.2cts (instead of 2.46cts).......the reason for this is cos I forgot to minus off the reduction in cash hoard after paying out the 12cts divident. As such, @ 42cts fair value upon xd, the P/E is now 19X All the other numbers remains the same. Apologies for the error. |
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Nostradamus
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27-Jul-2006 11:03
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Yes. | ||||||||||
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sandbox
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27-Jul-2006 09:32
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So does the dividend of 0.12 still stand? | ||||||||||
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Nostradamus
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26-Jul-2006 19:55
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Sing Ship's sharp fall in net profit was entirely due to the disposal of the fleet of container and multi-purpose vessels, which had reflected in exceptional profit of $40.64m a year ago. Key point is that the $0.03 "normal" dividend, costing about $10m, is secure. Reasons: - underlying annual profit of about $12m, unless it acquires more ro-ro vessels, as the Chairman had earlier indicated he would if prices for car carriers were to decline - it has retained profit (revenue reserves) of $185m, and liquid assets of almost $200m ($174.5m cash and 25.4m short term investments), which will however decline to about $150m after the stock goes X-D. |
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shplayer
Elite |
26-Jul-2006 14:20
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sandbox, Actually the 1Q 07 numbers turned out better than I expected......my earlier expectation for FY07 was eps of about 2.2cts. However, from the 1Q result, it would seem that co. could have posted about 2.7cts eps. Now, with the loss of Cougar Ace (CA), my forecast is for SpSh to post eps for FY07 of about 2.46cts...... The report OngHuiH referred to...where the analyst put a fair value of 42cts is based on xd....which is also the xd NAV. Thereby, the analyst is inferring the fair value now...cd...is 54cts. Based on xd of 42cts, cash or near cash is 34cts + whatever $$ Co. can get for CA from insurance......I estimate this will add another 2.2cts to the cash pile. However, at 42cts, FY07 P/E is 17X....which seems abit high....but it is backed by a huge cash pile. Looking at the historical price movements of SpSh, co. declared 5.0cts (less tax i.e. 4cts) div for FY05. Prior to xd, share price peaked at 60+cts. Subsequently, after xd, price hovered at sub 50cts.....as low as 46cts.....for most of FY06. ....even thought NAV was 54cts (pre divestment of Cougar Log). In conclusion, given the current situation, my take is the price will fall below NAV after xd as the market does not favour companies sitting on too huge a cash pile and not using it to generate higher returns (1Q cash generated about 3.8% pa interst). Of course my assessment will change if the co. announces new investment with the cash. The above is just my personal opinion. |
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sandbox
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26-Jul-2006 10:51
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shplayer, you the expert. Your take? My view is that there is strong support at 0.55 although there were announcements of drop in profits and the lost of one ship. Shows strong fundamentals and the dividends may be making the difference. |
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OngHuiH
Member |
26-Jul-2006 09:37
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Extracted from this morning ..... reported lower earnings YoY for 1Q07 primarily due to the divestment of vessels ... ...accounted for the sharp 93% fall in net profit. SSCL's fair value has been revised down from 50 cents to 42 cents. At the current share price of S$0.57, the equivalent ex-dividend share price is 7% above our fair value estimate. you expert view pse. Thanks. |
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shplayer
Elite |
26-Jul-2006 07:34
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Another report of Cougar Ace. I think market will react to this incident today.
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elizlow
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25-Jul-2006 23:36
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Good evening Sandbox, I am a new bie in this forum. Thanks for yr advice. I bought 10 lots at 0.535 and I am just wondering should I take profit now or sell after xd based on yr calculations. Many thanks again. | ||||||||||
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elizlow
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25-Jul-2006 23:29
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Good evening Sandbox, I am a new bie in this forum. Thanks for yr advice. I bought 10 lots at 0.535 and I am just wondering should I take profit now or sell after xd based on yr calculations. Many thanks again. | ||||||||||
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shplayer
Elite |
25-Jul-2006 18:15
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Co. made following announcement to SGX: The Board of Directors of Singapore Shipping Corporation Limited wishes to announce that MV Cougar Ace, a vessel owned by an associated company in which the Group has 30% interest, was involved in an incident on 24 July 2006 on its voyage from Japan to Canada, causing it to list severely. All the crew are accounted for and have been safely airlifted from the vessel. This incident has no material impact on the Group's financial results for the year ending 31 March 2007. By Order of the Board Rebecca Marie Stephanie Tai-Yeo Hsiu Erh Company Secretary 25 July 2006 I am sure loss of vessel is covered by insurance but I can't see how Co. can say it has no material impact for FY2007, albeit SpSh owns 30% of vessel. From my understanding, insurance does not cover loss of earnings. My estimate is this will impact 2007 revenue by about 12%. |
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sandbox
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25-Jul-2006 17:21
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shplayer, Thanks for the info. Will look at the options ASAP and monitor the price closely tomorrow. They may also need to announce the approval of the dividend and hold back the news like what you said. elizlow, Correct me if I am wrong: Based on 0.57 at 10 lots with the div of 0.12. Breakeven price would be 0.45 (not including trading fees). This means that if the price of this counter can stay above 0.47 after xd, you will be still looking at a very, very small gain. Otherwise, its going to hurt real bad. Are you vested? |
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shplayer
Elite |
25-Jul-2006 17:14
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This is latest I have of Cougar Ace. Current situation of M/V Cougar Ace still lying on her portside about 85-90 deg. for the last 4 hrs. Cannot contact w/ the capt. probably due to battery failure. Weather Condition as of 0900H LT (2000UTC) 24th July 2006 Wind - WSW / 5 Overcast / with fog in patches Swell SW 3-4 Mtrs. Barometer 1004 Temp. (air) 11 deg. C (dry) / 10 deg. C Sea water temp. 10 deg. C. Visibility - 3 NM and deteriorating Position: (M/V Cougar Ace) Lat. 48-11.6N, Long. 173-56. |
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shplayer
Elite |
25-Jul-2006 17:01
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sandbox, Checked with a friend in the shipping industry.... he says ship is listing very badly. In his words...' No hope'....i.e. it is unlikely the ship can be rescued. |
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elizlow
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25-Jul-2006 16:36
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Hi Sandbox, appreciate yr help on how to work out the stock price of Sp Shipping when ex div based on today's price at 0.57. Many thanks. | ||||||||||
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sandbox
Senior |
25-Jul-2006 16:35
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Thanks shplayer. Will wait for the news and see how it goes. May need to do some calculations and see if its better to exit before xd or otherwise. Hope all goes well. Cheers. |
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elizlow
Senior |
25-Jul-2006 16:34
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shplayer
Elite |
25-Jul-2006 16:24
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Company will have to make an announcement sooner or later......looks like they will hold out till the last possible time. If you read the article, the ship sent out SOS on Sun Night...which is our Monday. So, this news is already a day old. Once news is out, logically, it will have a negative effect on share price. The irony of it is, Sp Ship AGM is today...1430hrs. They would have approved the divident payout. |
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