Latest Forum Topics / SingShipping Last:0.24 -0.005 | Post Reply |
SP Ships Fully Valued?
|
|
shplayer
Elite |
14-Jul-2006 15:39
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Sorry, ...typo error in my last post...last line of last par should read ...."OCBC has not made any attempt to clarify their assumptions." |
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
OngHuiH
Member |
14-Jul-2006 15:29
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Dear Shplayer, truely, I am very impressed with your deep knowledge of this counter and taking the trouble to share your expertise. Truely appreciate. |
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
|
shplayer
Elite |
14-Jul-2006 14:59
|
x 2
x 0 Alert Admin |
OngHuiH, Report by OCBC? If that is the one, the analyst Choon Teck seems to be biased, misleading and erronous in his research. If you read his report carefully his valuation of 50cts is based on xd. Current NAV is 52cts. Upon xd, NAV is going to be 40cts.So, at P/B of 1.25, fair xd value is 50cts. So, with this assumption, the cd fair value, according to Choon Teck, is 62cts. MISLEADING But bear in mind, by xd, SpSh would have completed 1Q FY07. Fcst eps for FY07 is 2.2cts. Taking this forecast, as @ 30 Jun06, NAV should be 52.5cts. Currently, SpSh main business is chartering out 3 RoRo vessels.... 2two of them 100% owned and the other 30% owned. They have another vessel on order (50/50 owned with Wallenius) which is scheduled to be delivered in Jan 2007. Now if you look at his financial analysis, revenue forecasts for FY 07 and 08 are flat. Surely, this new vessel, which is already contracted, will contribute to revenues. My estimate is 2-3% for FY07 and 20% for FY08. ERRONOUS Lets address fcst P/E (assume price of 50cts) for FY07 and FY08. Eps for FY07 should come in at about 2.2cts. which make fcst P/E 07 of 22.7x. My estimate Eps for FY08 is about 3.4cts...fwd P/E 08 of 14.7x. Bear in mind, the Co. is flush with cash and zero debt. Today, its cash and near cash per share is about 46cts. Mgmt has in the past been generous with div payout. So, I expect div for FY07 to be at least 2cts (Yield of 4%) and FY08, 3.5cts (Yield of 7%). In my opinion, this is a classic case of an analyst trying to talk the price down....the way its presented, it stated the fair value based on xd but released the report during cd. Furthermore, their financial analysis is glaringly erronous. Mind you, I have communicated this observation to Choon Teck but OCBC has made any attempt to clarify their assumptions. BIASED LESSON - NEVER MAKE YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS BASED WHOLLY ON ANALYST REPORTS. |
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
OngHuiH
Member |
14-Jul-2006 12:12
|
x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
Reported, is fully valued @ 0.50. Any recommendation? Still can buy or should sell in view of the 12 cents dividends. What is the predicted price after XD? Thanks. |
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me |