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TA-FA "Contest"
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gentledove
Member |
02-Oct-2007 16:46
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Hello all the sifus if you can spare say 100k for stocks at the current position when the st index is at or almost at all time high would you still put this money in stocks and if so, please share your choice of counters probably will give the best capital appreciation say within a time frame of 1 year. Thanks. |
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billywows
Elite |
29-Aug-2006 23:27
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You TA experts out there can figure below out to be true? For your interesting calculation (but count me out) .... ----------------------------- KBH - KB Home Date: August 28, 2006 Current Price: $41.70 3% rise from today: $42.95, 3% rise from recent low on July 20, 2006 of $38.82 is $39.98. Dividend Yield: 2.40% The Company A top five homebuilder based on number of homes sold. Caters primarily to the first-time and first move-up buyers. Primarily serves the markets in AZ, CA, CO, FL, NV, NM, GA, NC, TX, SC and Chicago (the last two through acquisition). KB Home Design Studios are an industry standard to providing customers with a way to select from the vast array of options. Pros Focuses primarily on first-time and first move-up buyers. This is the largest segment of home buyers, providing a good opportunity for growth through market share gain. Reliant on purchasers who don't own a home or are moving, people for whom buying a home is more mandatory than discretionary (i.e. - more inclined to buy than someone who already has a home and doesn't need to move to another city). Industry leading marketing prowess. Design studio approach imparts value on home buying process. In other words, allowing customers to pick exactly the options they want in a home and leave out the unnecessary items that might drive the price higher. Important when trying to keep a monthly payment low in these times of higher (relatively) interest rates. This could lead to a lower per-home revenue, but will encourage more home sales than otherwise might have occurred. Solid homebuilder, with management that has been through home building downturns and come through them. They know how to keep the company in good shape through this difficult period. Should be able to support the dividend and ride out the downturn. It's not like they're not selling any homes at all. Still building and selling homes, just at a slower pace and with less upward pressure on price. Strong fiscal management, does not de-value the land it owns by offering cut-prices just to sell houses. Believes the value of premium land will offer a better return later at better prices, and therefore won't sell it at a discount now. Starting to expand its offerings to luxury, active-adult homes, high-density and mixed-use homes. Diversifying a bit. Constant assessment of consumer preferences and market opportunities. Focuses on efficient use of working capital. Cons/Risks Macroeconomic factors conspiring to make this a tough environment for homebuilders to grow at their previous pace. Factors influencing less than desirable market for homebuilders: large housing supply, higher interest rates making homes less affordable, slowdown of people buying homes as investments (fewer "Flippers"). KBH's backlog (previously ordered homes) could be at risk if competitors offer incentives, which mitigate the cost (loss of deposit) of canceling the order and buying from another builder. Its primary target market is pretty sensitive to any factors that increase the cost of home ownership, higher interest rates come to mind first. KBH owns up to half of its lot inventory at any one time, making it susceptible to write-downs if land prices decline. In newly entered markets, the land purchased by KBH will have a higher cost than land owned by competitors, limiting ability to compete based on price and, at the same time, maintaining a decent margin. Reason for the Price Drop The homebuilding industry is in a state of oversupply. As of the end of July, there was a 6 1/2 month supply of homes for sale nationwide. So if the homebuilders decided to stop putting up houses today, they could continue to sell their current stock for almost 7 months. Of course, they won't just stop, but should slow down, so supply should gradually decline a bit, though maybe not to the low levels seen in the past 8 years or so. An increase in interest rates helped to contribute to the oversupply due to the cost of owning a home increasing. Upward Catalyst Catalysts include demand catching up to supply, stability of interest rates, and a general return to normal in the housing market. Financial Snapshot/Valuations EPS CAGR is 26.57% from 1997 to estimated EPS of 7.70 for FY 2007. FY2007 EPS estimate is 7.70, a 30% decrease from FY2006 estimate. Current CAGR of stock price over past 10 years is 10.6%. KBH has a debt/equity ratio of 1.2. Dividends were steady at .60/year until 2003, since then they've increased to $1/share, 2.4% yield. Payout ratio is 10%. Current price: $41.70 Ave CAGR Price: $70.02 P/E Valuation FY2007e Trading Range: $33.45 to $64.87 Dividend Valuation FY2007e Trading Range: $54.15 to $110.33 Graham Intrinsic Value (at 7.70 EPS for 2007): $183.22 (yeah, right) Discount Cash Flow: $??? - current price represents a % discount S&P Target Price: $57 - as of 6/19/2006 - today's price is an 25% discount to target. AG Edwards Price Objective: $60 - as of 7/10/2006 - today's price is a 30% discount to objective. BMW Metrics Today / At time of purchase: 16-year chart Ave CAGR = 13.3% Current CAGR = 9.5% RMS = -1.80, RF = 1.71 http://invest.kleinnet.com/bmw1/stats16/KBH.html Potential Sell Prices at Ave CAGR of 13.3%, based on mklein charts: Ave CAGR Price +1 RMS Price Conclusion I think this is a classic case of a good company that is near the bottom of a down cycle and will eventually come back up. Little chance of going bankrupt. It has enough cash to sustain the current dividend. It's survived down cycles before with current management, so they know how to pull through the current slowdown in good shape. The big question is, how much worse can the housing industry get? And the obvious follow-up is how far will KBH fall if the housing market stays in the doldrums? How much of the uncertainty is priced in already? Tough questions. And ones I can't really answer, obviously. Sources: S&P Stock Report AG Edwards Stock Report |
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shplayer
Elite |
29-Aug-2006 17:29
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Depends on what the 'X covered' is referring to. It could be 'Interest cover' which will be Net Profit/Interest Expense. |
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tanglinboy
Elite |
29-Aug-2006 15:53
Yells: "hello!" |
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I believe its something like this - Net Profit after Interest and Taxes / Dividends Issued |
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as963725
Member |
29-Aug-2006 10:53
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Hi, can somebody educate me on this.. if a company is X times covered, as shown in the financial result.. what does it mean ? Which ratio do we use to indicate the number of coverage ? Thanks for your education |
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derekchong
Veteran |
29-Aug-2006 10:16
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hi Sporegal, Since you are good in trading, why don't do it full time.You can have more income and more time to guide / advise all the du ti in this forum.We hope to learn from you and make some profit. |
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Sporeguy
Elite |
29-Aug-2006 09:23
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Hi Sporegal, The Chinese saying "Going up the mountain too often, bound to meet a tiger one day". So be extra careful if your boss is unforgiving. Some bosses just turn a blind eye if your work are up to mark and schedule. Also some colleagues may report on you in order to consolidate their position. |
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shplayer
Elite |
29-Aug-2006 07:45
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singaporegal, Thanks for your response. |
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FORREST
Member |
28-Aug-2006 22:16
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shr fu, allow me to toast you a cup of chinese chrysanthemum tea, pls. accept me as your unworthy toothie. (du ti). :) as my first lesson, i thank you for teaching me the art of Alt-Tab. :) i sincerely hope and wish to learn more from you from today onward. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
28-Aug-2006 21:29
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Hi FORREST, Yeah... I'm a desk bound employee and I do have a boss. I only trade and monitor the market closely in the afternoon after 3-4pm when I feel that the market position for the day is more or less established. The rest of the time, I just browse the SJ forum..... :) and contribute when I feel like it. I do my stock screening at night by looking at charts. I take around 3 mins or less to come to a decision whether buy/sell a stock. So its pretty fast. So far, I use the ALT-TAB frequently to switch screens so as not to get caught... hehehe.. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
28-Aug-2006 21:25
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Hi shplayer, Regarding your question on Chaikin, it works like this - if you study the mathematics, Chaikin can actually be used as a leading indicator of accumulation/distribution (AD). I use it mostly to double check on the AD to ensure that the AD is still continuing on its present trend. Regarding your second question on XD - I don't think there are distortions to the charts. In fact, when there is XD or CD coming, you'll find that the market sentiment is reflected accordingly in the TA charts. |
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shplayer
Elite |
28-Aug-2006 20:48
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singaporegal, Sorry, but one more question. When the counter goes xd, the share price will fall to the reflect this, thereby causing distortions to the various charts...Bollinger, RSI, Will%, Acc/Distr, etc. How do you handle/compensate for these distortions? Thank you. |
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FORREST
Member |
28-Aug-2006 20:42
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singaporegal shr fu, i want to make you my shr fu bec. i wanna know how u can be working in another job and yet still have time to trade? and more importantly, not get caught by the bosses (presumably you work for someone) for eating snake and doing other things like monitoring stocks hor? what's the secret ah? gump |
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shplayer
Elite |
28-Aug-2006 16:09
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singaporegal, From your experience, how do you differentiate the indicators from Acc/Dist and Chaikin Osc? They both try to capture an accumulation or distribution (selloff) trend but using different methodology. Reading the Theory behind them, they both seem logical. However, which indicator do you give more weighting on in your decision making. Thank you. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
28-Aug-2006 07:34
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Hi FORREST, Hahaha...I'm not a full time trader... only a retail investor like most people. My trading pattern may not be suitable for many people because I have strict rules in trading - like how I was sharing with Nostradamus in another thread. I do very well during bull run times, but when its a bear period like now, the criteria I use keeps me out of the market. Anyway, I'm no sifu... I just read the charts. :) If you're interested, go buy a Larry Williams book. He's the real guru and I use many of his methods and subscribe to his philosophy. |
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marksman
Member |
28-Aug-2006 01:39
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SGX: shortterm in retracement, looking to buy at below 3.8-3.7. S1=3.8, S2=3.7, will face stiff upside resistance at 4.2 verdict: wait&c |
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FORREST
Member |
27-Aug-2006 23:18
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singaporegal, can i "Pai ni wei shr fu"..i'm serious!....you seem to quite successful in your trading....how many years have u been trading full time? |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
27-Aug-2006 22:09
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Hi hippoo, I mostly use Accumulation/Distribution, RSI, Chaikin and Williams %R. I also look closely at the bar charts and volume charts. I find that this combination works pretty well together. |
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hippoo
Member |
27-Aug-2006 22:07
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Thanks singaporegal. :). By the way, which indicators do you used mostly? |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
27-Aug-2006 09:06
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Hi hippoo, You don't have to get TA indicatros from brokers.. you can get some of the most used TA indicators right here at SJ. Anyway, if you want to download the stock data, you can get it from Yahoo Finance. |
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