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be prepare another time bomb from china ,hk
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mike8057d
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24-Jan-2008 11:21
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China GDP Expands 11.2%, Supporting Global Growth (Update1) By Nipa Piboontanasawat and Li Yanping Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy expanded more than 11 percent for the fourth straight quarter, supporting global growth as a recession looms in the U.S. Gross domestic product rose 11.2 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31, compared with 11.5 percent in the third quarter, the statistics bureau said in Beijing today. That was less than the 11.3 percent median estimate of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. About $7.6 trillion has been wiped off the value of stocks worldwide this year on concern that a U.S. slowdown will spread. That is complicating efforts by China, the other main engine of global growth, to curb lending and rein in consumer prices that rose 6.5 percent in December, stoking social tensions. ``Tightening too much when the U.S. is heading for a recession would be a double hit for the global economy,'' said Wang Qing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. ``Inflation is the key challenge.'' The yuan traded at 7.2260 per dollar at 10:10 a.m. in Shanghai, from 7.2250 before the report. ``The economy still faces outstanding problems, including the risk of shifting from growing rapidly to overheating, and rising inflationary pressure,'' the government said in a statement today. ``Structural problems are still prominent, growth is not efficient enough and the economic system needs further reform.'' Rising Inflation China's consumer prices advanced 4.8 percent in 2007 from a year earlier, outstripping the government's 3 percent target, statistics bureau said today. Fitch Ratings forecast today that inflation will average more than 5 percent this year. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch & Co. have forecast a U.S. recession and the prospect prompted the Federal Reserve to make an emergency 75 basis point cut to its benchmark interest rate to 3.5 percent this week. China's benchmark rate now stands at 7.47 percent. The Fed's rate cut increases the chances of ``hot money'' flooding the economy, Yu Yongding, director of the World Economics and Politics Institute in Beijing, said in Davos, Switzerland yesterday. The interest rate cut will ``have a neutralizing effect on China's tightening monetary policy.'' Weaker U.S. demand has already contributed to a slowing of exports from China, a manufacturing base for Motorola Inc. mobile phones and Samsung Electronics Co. televisions. Overseas shipments rose at the slowest pace since 2002 in the fourth quarter. Reduced export incentives, particularly on products made by polluting industries, were also a factor. Food Stampedes While inflation cooled from an 11-year high of 6.9 percent in November, the pace remains more than double the central bank's annual target. Soaring costs have triggered stampedes at sales of discounted cooking oil and eggs, price controls on staple foods and memories of the unrest before the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests and crackdown. Inflation ``is quickly spreading from `just' an economic issue to a potential social instability threat,'' said Michael Kurtz, an equity strategist at Bear Stearns Ltd. in Hong Kong. The government's pledge of a ``tighter'' monetary policy in 2008 after six interest-rate increases last year and the raising of banks' reserve ratios to a 20-year high increases the risk of a sudden slowdown in the world's fourth-biggest economy. Factory Spending A slowdown would expose industrial overcapacity, leading to bad loans, job losses and the possibility of deflation, according to Sun Mingchun, an economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. Factory and property investment in urban areas climbed 25.8 percent in 2007 from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said, up from the 24.5 percent pace in 2006. Industrial output rose 17.4 percent in December, compared with 17.3 percent in November. Faster currency appreciation may become a more important tool this year for cooling an economy awash in cash from record trade surpluses. Quicker gains or a wider trading band for the currency could accommodate the central bank's policies of tightening credit and curbing inflation, Xia Bin, a director at the State Council Development and Research Center said according to a report in the People's Daily's overseas edition yesterday. The yuan's gains versus the U.S. dollar accelerated to 7 percent last year, double the pace in 2006. It's up more than 14 percent since a fixed-exchange rate was scrapped in July 2005. A stronger currency lowers import costs and pushes up export prices. Global Growth China's economy grew 11.4 percent in 2007 from a year earlier, the fastest pace in 13 years, to 24.7 trillion yuan ($3.4 trillion). The nation accounted for 17 percent of global growth, the same as the U.S., according to United Nations estimates. The government has the means to stimulate the economy if necessary. Tax revenue soared 31 percent last year to 4.94 trillion yuan and rising consumption is another shield. Retail sales climbed 20.2 percent in December from a year earlier. ``China will still be well insulated at home in a U.S. recession,'' said Jonathan Anderson, global emerging markets economist at UBS AG in Hong Kong. He forecasts China's economy will grow 10 percent in 2008 and 9.5 percent in 2009 as domestic demand softens the effect of any export slowdown. source: Bloomberg |
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mike8057d
Veteran |
23-Jan-2008 14:00
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Yuan gains, stocks continue to slideBy Dong Zhixin (chinadaily.com.cn) Updated: 2008-01-23 11:11 Chinese stocks rebounded temporarily on Wednesday before continuing to slide, and the yuan reached a new high against the greenback, after a hefty US interest rate cut. Before trading started, the People's Bank of China set the yuan central parity rate at 7.2350 to the US dollar, the highest level since China ended its peg to the dollar in July 2005.
However, the rebound did not last long, as panic selling resumed, sending the index down 0.59 percent to 4,533.06 points at the end of the morning session. Stock investors' initial confidence came from the Federal Reserve of the United States who slashed the federal funds rate by 0.75 percent, the biggest cut on record, to avert a recession. The drastic move eased fears for a while that the housing market slump and the sub-prime crisis might drag the world?s largest economy into recession, thus affecting global economic growth. Such concerns were believed to be a key reason behind a worldwide meltdown in the equity market. In response to the Fed's move, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered from a 465-point loss to close the day off 128 points. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 1.11 percent, while the Nasdaq composite index lost 2.04 percent. That indicated investors remain wary of the prospect of the economy, which may force the Fed to cut the rate further. In fact, the US central bank did make such hints when announcing the rate cut. Any further cuts will add to the pressure on the yuan to rise in value. The Chinese currency has appreciated more than 12 percent against the dollar since July 2005. Chinese analysts expected an 8 to 10 percent rise in the yuan's value this year, as Western countries are demanding for faster appreciation. Adding to the pressure, China may have to resort to further interest rate hikes after 6 increases in 2007 to prevent the economy from overheating and to tame inflation. At the end of last year, China's policymakers shifted the country's monetary policy to "tight" from "prudent" faced with a runaway economy and rising inflation. The world's fourth major economy expanded 11.5 percent in the first three quarters and inflation accelerated to 6.9 percent in November, the highest in 11 years. Key economic figures for the whole of 2007 will be released Thursday. However, figures for December will be postponed till February, including the consumer price index, earlier reports said. |
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
23-Jan-2008 10:38
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be technically sound...and fundamentally equipped...savvy about the latest news and sentiments to see where the trend is heading to...yes we can actually see and hear what others have to offer on forums...however we need to double ensure with our personal knowledge how credible a source is ...reliability is 1 impt factor... however keep dependability on yourself as priority | |
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ten4one
Master |
23-Jan-2008 10:34
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Aiyah, every forums are full of Drummer Boys when the Bull keeps running and Cursers when they got injured by the bear's claws. Therefore, as an Investor or Trader, must try to know how to filter out the magnified NOISES! Cheers! | |
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hohokit
Veteran |
23-Jan-2008 10:24
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Reported Bank of China post tax profit rose last year fyi. | |
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mike8057d
Veteran |
23-Jan-2008 10:23
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good that you do that......but again, not everyone will come to this thread...cheers | |
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Lazyhorse
Senior |
23-Jan-2008 10:18
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mike8057d. Yap. Just sounding out warnings to others who might think otherwise. : )) |
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mike8057d
Veteran |
23-Jan-2008 10:15
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Lazyhorse, this is the forum where anyone can write anything......so believe in yourself. | |
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Lazyhorse
Senior |
23-Jan-2008 10:11
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This guy has been going all over the forum recommending to buy this share, buy that share, this share got good fundamental, that share got good fundamental. Must hold for a few months. Then the next moment, he will tell you that he sold off everything already. | |
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
23-Jan-2008 09:58
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there might be some true in certain rumours....however how high the probability is to have a hear-say? it will be more credible with concrete evidences.... | |
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ultronex
Member |
23-Jan-2008 02:07
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i'll be an idiot to listen to someone who is buying and issues a sell call and selling when he/she issues a buy call. ang mo or no ang mo i'm sure that i trust myself better. p |
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
23-Jan-2008 01:16
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is this base on hear-say....rumour................................on any basis | |
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louis_leecs
Elite |
23-Jan-2008 00:53
Yells: "half cash" |
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too bad a lot of ppl organise a lot of battalion of army to buy when market open,,,,,some of kanshitui jump in hope for cheong ,,,,,,,im still slideline,,,,,,,,,my ah moh remiser cash is king........wait for another week sell off,,,,,,,strong hide at chamber is safe at least asia bank havent write off yet,,,,china bank...hcbc and japan bank will thw next tumble target,,,,,ah moh borrow to short them | |
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jackjames
Elite |
22-Jan-2008 23:59
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Good call, this is not hard to imagine, the next target it CHINA! property sky rocket like never ends, as well as shares... it is time ! |
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louis_leecs
Elite |
22-Jan-2008 23:56
Yells: "half cash" |
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i heard that bank of china will ann relate to sub prime heavy write off,,,,,,,if true that evey body better take cover in safety chamber,,,,,,now the time bomd is nearest to us get ready to esplosure,,,,,,that why china authority prevent government pension fund buy usa bank,,,,,their back yard on fire and termasek sell and run away first,,,,,,,,,,, |
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