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Time to take profit or cut loss. 28 Dec 2007
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Pension
Elite |
31-Dec-2007 14:03
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i am busy counting profit this morning. |
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Louisxiii
Member |
31-Dec-2007 12:45
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Pension did you overslept and forgot to 'short' down all the index counter so that STI will close in RED?????? |
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Pension
Elite |
29-Dec-2007 12:10
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sti close in red, monday it will close in red oso. |
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Pension
Elite |
28-Dec-2007 18:23
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Citigroup, Goldman Cut LBO Overhang With Discounts Up to 10% By Bryan Keogh and Pierre Paulden  Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are offering discounts of as much as 10 cents on the dollar to clear a $231 billion backlog of high-yield bonds and loans. ``The market can absorb all of these deals,'' said John Eydenberg, head of leveraged finance for the Americas at Deutsche Bank AG in New York. ``It is a question of time and price.'' While lenders reduced the overhang by 32 percent since July, they are struggling to unload debt from this year's record $438 billion of leveraged buyouts after losses from securities linked to subprime mortgages reduced demand for higher-yielding assets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They sold some bonds at a discount of 10 percent to face value and loans at 5 percent below par, according to London-based Barclays Plc. Bankers led by Goldman and Citigroup hold $17.5 billion of debt they couldn't sell from the purchase of Little Rock, Arkansas-based wireless carrier Alltel Corp. Lenders including Bank of America Corp., Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan committed to lend $22.3 billion next year for the purchase of Las Vegas-based casino company Harrah's Entertainment Inc., according to filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Banks including Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley will provide $22.1 billion for the acquisition of radio broadcaster Clear Channel Communications Inc. in San Antonio. Banks including Citigroup and Toronto-Dominion Bank are on the hook for $34.3 billion for Montreal-based telephone company BCE Inc., according to SEC filings. `Golden Era' Toronto-Dominion, based in Toronto, monitors the number of its deals so it isn't holding too many if there's a market disruption, said spokesman Nicholas Petter. ``You only take risks when they're transparent and you can measure them,'' Petter said. ``We're comfortable with where we are.'' Goldman spokesman Michael Duvally, Morgan Stanley spokeswoman Jennifer Sala and JPMorgan spokesman Brian Marchiony declined to comment. Citigroup spokeswoman Danielle Romero- Apsilos didn't immediately return calls seeking comment. All are based in New York. Christopher Feeney, a spokesman for Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America, also declined to comment. LBOs declined to $101.9 billion in the second half from $336.4 billion in the first six months as the subprime market collapsed. The extra yield investors demand to own high-yield bonds, those rated below BBB- by Standard & Poor's and Baa3 by Moody's Investors Service, rather than Treasuries widened to 5.64 percentage points yesterday from a record low of 2.41 in June, Merrill Lynch data show. Absorbing an Elephant Interest rates on loans rated B rose to 4.28 percentage points more than the three-month London interbank offered rate, a lending benchmark, from a low of 2.13 in February, according to S&P. Libor is 4.83 percent. Lower premiums earlier in 2007 allowed private-equity firms led by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and Blackstone Group LP to pursue the biggest LBOs ever. Henry Kravis, head of New York- based KKR, said at a conference in Halifax, Nova Scotia, in May that the business was in a ``golden era.'' Buyout groups, which use their own funds and debt to pay for takeovers and then improve profit by boosting sales, selling assets and cutting costs, required lenders to provide funds while subprime contagion spread. The collapse closed the high- yield market for much of July and August. Banks have $161.9 billion of loans and $69.6 billion of bonds left to distribute, according to JPMorgan data. ``A python that swallowed an elephant is being absorbed through the system,'' said Mario Gabelli, chief executive officer of Rye, New York-based Gamco Investors Inc., which has $31.6 billion in assets under management. Biggest Deals Lenders began to tackle the backlog in September, when KKR's banks sold $9.4 billion of loans to finance the LBO of Greenwood Village, Colorado-based credit-card processor First Data Corp. The loans, offered at a 4 percent discount, cost Zurich- based Credit Suisse Group, Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank and four others about $360 million, data compiled by Bloomberg show. They issued $2.2 billion of bonds at a loss of $114 million, based on the price of the securities, leaving them with $10.4 billion of debt that still needs to be sold. Banks scratched $51 billion off the list after firms including New York-based J.C. Flowers & Co. and Cerberus Capital Management LP abandoned deals. Clear Channel, Alltel Lenders for Bain Capital LLC and Thomas H. Lee Partners LP need to sell $2.6 billion of bonds and $19.5 billion of loans that will pay for the purchase of Clear Channel. Banks are raising as much as $23.1 billion in loans and $11.3 billion of notes to fund BCE's takeover by the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, the biggest-ever LBO. They have $17.5 billion of debt for the Alltel purchase. Alltel issued $3.2 billion of its $14 billion in planned loans on Nov. 16 at 96 cents on the dollar. A sale of $7.7 billion of notes failed to attract enough investors, and Alltel pulled that deal. It later sold $1 billion of notes at 91.5 cents on the dollar. ``It will be important to get this Alltel deal done in an orderly fashion,'' said Manny Labrinos, who helps oversee $2 billion as a bond fund manager at Nuveen Investment Management in Los Angeles. It may take until October to sell all the debt, he said. |
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Pension
Elite |
28-Dec-2007 18:20
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European, Asian Stocks Drop; Daimler, Alcatel, Toyota Decline By Adria Cimino Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- European and Asian stocks fell, led by automakers and technology companies, on concern a U.S. economic slowdown will curb corporate profits. Daimler AG, the world's biggest truckmaker, and Alcatel- Lucent, the largest telecommunications-equipment maker, retreated in Europe. Toyota Motor Co. slumped the most in a month in Asia, while Samsung Electronics Co., South Korea's biggest exporter, also declined. The MSCI World Index slipped less than 0.1 percent to 1,589.62 at 9:04 a.m. in London, trimming its gain for the year to 7.2 percent. The index is heading for its worst annual performance since 2002 on speculation the biggest U.S. housing slump in 16 years and credit-market turmoil will drag down the global economy. ``The economic outlook for the next six months is very mixed,'' said Vafa Ahmadi, who helps oversee $38 billion at CPR Asset Management in Paris. ``Housing data is the thermometer that takes the temperature of U.S. households. A decline is not reassuring for the stock market.'' Sales of new homes in the U.S. fell in November, approaching an 11-year low and signaling no end to the housing recession, according to estimates by economists before a report set for 10 a.m. in Washington. In the U.K., house prices slipped for a second month in December, Nationwide Building Society said. Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index were little changed today. The S&P 500 lost 1.4 percent yesterday, as did the Dow Jones Industrial Average, after U.S. government reports on durable goods and unemployment added to evidence that the economy is slowing. The reports ``brought the Dow down, reinforcing fears of a recession in the world's largest economy,'' Oliver Stevens, head of dealing at IG Markets in Melbourne, wrote in a note. European Stocks Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index dropped 0.4 percent to 363.63 today, extending its 2007 slide to 0.5 percent. European government bonds gained, snapping three days of declines. Ten-year Treasury notes rose for a second day. The yen rose against all 16 of the most-actively traded currencies as the slide in global stocks prompted investors to reduce holdings of higher-yielding assets funded by loans from Japan. European automobile shares, which have posted the third- best performance among 18 groups in the Stoxx 600 this year, slid the most today, dropping 1 percent. Daimler slipped 1.2 percent to 65.71 euros. PSA Peugeot Citroen, Europe's second-largest carmaker, lost 1.2 percent to 51.89 euros. Continental AG, the region's second-biggest tiremaker, fell 1.5 percent to 86.62 euros. Alcatel-Lucent retreated 2.2 percent to 5.01 euros, the biggest drop in almost two weeks. Toyota, Samsung The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.6 percent to 156.20, its steepest decline since Dec. 17. The benchmark has risen 11 percent in 2007, its smallest annual gain in five years. Toyota slid 2 percent to 6,040 yen, its biggest decline since Nov. 21. The stock fell 24 percent this year, its worst annual performance since 2000, on concern consumer spending in the U.S., its biggest market, will slow. Samsung Electronics lost 2.5 percent to 556,000 won. Micronas Semiconductor Holding AG sank 2.7 percent to 10.9 francs. Switzerland's biggest maker of computer chips said it plans to close its Internet television business in the first quarter of 2008. Alitalia SpA slipped 0.8 percent to 73 cents. Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi said protests from unions and politicians won't prompt the government to delay its decision on whether to sell its stake in the state-controlled airline to Air France-KLM Group or Air One, an Italian rival. Prodi reiterated a pledge to make the decision by the middle of January. |
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Pension
Elite |
28-Dec-2007 18:18
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Japan Inflation Quickens to 0.4%, Fastest Since 1998 (Update3) By Mayumi Otsuma  Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's inflation rose at the fastest pace in more than nine years in November and industrial production and household spending declined, signaling rising oil costs may derail the economy's longest postwar expansion. Core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food, climbed 0.4 percent from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo. Factory output slid 1.6 percent from a month earlier. Households cut spending 0.6 percent, the first drop since July. Wages fell and employment prospects worsened as job seekers outnumbered vacancies for the first time in two years, the Labor Ministry said today. Surging energy costs rather than consumer spending are driving inflation, making it likely the Bank of Japan will refrain from raising interest rates as growth slows. ``Japan's economy is entering into a new phase of accelerating inflation and slowing growth,'' said Susumu Kato, chief economist at Calyon Securities in Tokyo. ``The bank will probably keep rates on hold in the next two to three quarters.'' The jobs-to-applicants ratio fell to 0.99 in November from 1.02 in October, the Labor Ministry said. Wages slid 0.2 percent from a year earlier. Pay has only risen in one month this year. The yield on Japan's 10-year bond fell 4.5 basis points to 1.5 percent at the close in Tokyo. The Topix stock index tumbled 1.6 percent, capping off a 12 percent drop for the year, making Japan the worst performer of the world's 10 biggest markets. Faster Than Expected Core consumer prices rose faster than the 0.3 percent median estimate of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Gasoline and kerosene contributed three-quarters of the gain, which was the quickest since March 1998, when an increase in the country's sales tax pushed the gauge to 1.8 percent. Food and oil costs are fanning inflation across Asia. South Korea's consumer prices rose to a three-year high in November and China's inflation was the quickest in 11 years. Singapore's consumer prices rose the most in 25 years. ``The gain was mainly due to rising oil prices and not because of higher wages and consumer demand,'' Mari Iwashita, a strategist at Daiwa Securities SMBC Co. in Tokyo. ``The central bank probably won't raise rates until July at least.'' Inflation stemming from higher energy costs is ``undesirable'' because it may choke off spending by consumers and companies, Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Hiroko Ota told reporters in Tokyo. She said the economy is still trying to shake off deflation. Deflation Fight The Bank of Japan raised the benchmark overnight lending rate in July 2006 after holding it near zero for more than five years to fight deflation. Policy makers doubled the rate to 0.5 percent in February and have kept it on hold since. Japan's last bout of higher inflation amid slowing job growth was during a recession a decade ago. This time it may be worse for consumers: wages have fallen an average 0.5 percent this year. In 1997, they rose 1.7 percent. ``The economic slowdown since mid-2007 is now causing, after a time lag, deterioration in the labor market,'' said Naoki Murakami, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Tokyo. ``With employment now starting to slow, we see little likelihood of a recovery in consumption.'' Retail sales rose 1.6 percent, the fastest gain in two years, as consumers paid more for gasoline and food, the Trade Ministry said today. Households last month became the most pessimistic they've been in almost four years. ``Drivers can't quit driving just because oil got more expensive,'' said Takahide Arai, a Trade Ministry spokesman. Taxi Fares Tokyo's taxi operators this month increased fares for the first time in a decade. All Nippon Airways Co., Japan's largest domestic airline, last week said it will raise some domestic fares from April 1. Gasoline climbed to a record 155.5 yen a liter on Dec. 10 and retail kerosene surged to the highest ever last week. Japan imports virtually all of its oil and many households rely on kerosene for heating. J-Oil Mills Inc. said on Dec. 26 it plans to raise margarine prices about 10 percent in March because of higher edible-oil costs. Chuetsu Pulp & Paper Co. said it will increase copy paper prices for the second time in five months. Higher oil prices are eating into corporate profits, which fell for the first time in five years last quarter. Last month's drop in factory production came as exports to the U.S., Europe and China all slackened as the effects of the U.S. housing recession and global financial-market turmoil spread. The worsening economic situation at home and abroad may mean the Bank of Japan's next decision will be to cut, not raise, the key interest rate, some economists said. ``Deteriorating external conditions have virtually exhausted the chances of a rate hike in 2008,'' Takehiro Sato, chief Japan economist at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo, said today. ``The near-term theme is likely to shift to a rate cut rather than a hike.'' |
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Pension
Elite |
28-Dec-2007 18:16
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U.S. November New-Home Sales Probably Fell to Near 11-Year Low By Bob Willis Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of new homes in the U.S. fell in November, approaching an 11-year low and signaling no end to the housing recession that's threatening to stall growth in 2008, economists said before a report today. Purchases fell to an annual pace of 717,000, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 68 economists, from 728,000 in October. The 716,000 pace reached in September was the lowest since 1996. The residential real-estate slump, already the deepest in 16 years, shows no sign of ending as discounts fail to lure buyers and mounting foreclosures swell the glut of unsold properties. Falling property values may cause consumer spending to cool, boosting the odds the expansion will come to an end. ``The housing recession continues to grind away,'' said Brian Bethune, U.S. economist at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts. ``Imbalances in the housing market overall are being exacerbated by a rising number of homes being reverted to the market due to foreclosures.'' Economists' forecasts ranged from 685,000 to 750,000. The Commerce Department report is due at 10 a.m. in Washington. The housing recession has deepened since the August turmoil in subprime mortgages led to a worldwide credit shortage. Stricter borrowing standards and a freeze on lending to borrowers with poor credit put mortgages out of reach for more potential buyers. That's driving home prices lower, weakening sales as people hold out for even bigger reductions. 2008 Forecast Sales of new houses will probably tumble 8.9 percent in 2008 after a 25 percent drop this year, according to a Dec. 13 forecast from Fannie Mae, the largest mortgage buyer. Sales of new homes in October were already down 48 percent from their July 2005 peak. Home prices in 20 metropolitan areas fell 6.1 percent in the 12 months to October, the most in at least six years, according to a report this week by S&P/Case-Shiller. The decline raises the risk that more Americans will walk away from properties that are worth less than they owe, economists said. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. is forecasting prices will fall at least 15 percent from peak to trough. By that measure, the S&P/Case-Shiller index is down 6.6 percent so far. With sales and prices falling, foreclosures rose 68 percent in November from a year earlier. They may continue surging in 2008 as mortgages for some subprime borrowers with adjustable rates reset. Less Construction As foreclosures throw more homes onto the market, homebuilders such as Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., New Jersey's largest, are scaling back. Hovnanian plans to ``pare down our inventories in virtually all our markets,'' Chief Executive Officer Ara Hovnanian said on a conference call Dec. 19. ``It will be a difficult year.'' Housing starts are near a 14-year low and have fallen 48 percent since their January 2006 peak. Declining home construction has subtracted from economic growth for the last seven quarters, and economists are expecting the drag to continue in 2008. The slump in home construction is rippling across the economy, reducing demand for building materials, appliances and furniture, while weakening job growth as builders, mortgage companies and manufacturers reduce staff. The weaker housing market is also forecast to undermine consumer spending, which makes up two thirds of the economy, as falling property values leave owners feeling less wealthy and with less equity to tap for extra cash. Recession Odds The odds of recession have increased since the credit markets froze as a result of the subprime crisis. The economy will expand at a 1 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter after growing at a 4.9 percent rate from July through September, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed this month by Bloomberg News. `The probability of recession is 50 percent for next year at some point,'' Martin Feldstein, head of the National Bureau of Economic Research, which determines when contractions start and end, said in a Dec. 14 interview. ``We could see a downturn starting sometime in the spring or the second quarter of next year.'' |
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Pension
Elite |
28-Dec-2007 16:16
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today is friday, better take profit or cut loss. sti keep dipping. |
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