Back

Latest Forum Topics / Others

Post Reply

The Edge - Brokers' Digest (Nov 5 - Nov 11, 2007) Post Reply Rate topic
Blastoff Elite	04-Nov-2007 22:52        Blastoff About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Agreed with synnexo. Keep on with this sharing & updates..
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
synnexo Veteran	04-Nov-2007 15:04        synnexo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	decarn, Thanks for sharing. Time ahead will be a little bumpy though. Trade with care.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
decarn Member	04-Nov-2007 14:14        decarn About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Ace Achieve Infocom (Nov 1: 13 cents) TP: 17 cents MAINTAIN HOLD. Revenues grew only 4% in FY2007 over FY2006 (restated) and gross margin declined six percentage points to 25 % on the back of pricing pressures. Net profit rose 53% to $22.4 million from $14.6 million in FY2006, owing to a significant reduction in R&D and other operating expenses and a one-off reversal of income tax provisions of $2 million. Growth is expected to come from the 3G network construction business in China. We have revised down our earnings estimates for FY2008 by 27 % on clearer guidance by management about the quantum of revenue expected from 3G-related orders. Unchanged one-year target price of 17 cents pegged at 10x FY2008 earnings. - DBS Vickers Securities (Oct 30) DBS Group Holdings (Nov 1: $22.60) TP: $25 UPGRADE TO BUY. DBS reported 3Q2007 net profit of $610 million, up 11 % y-o-y and 9 % q-o-q, driven by fee and commission income and net interest income but partly, offset by higher allowances. Shareholders of DBS have a year-to-date total return of 0%, which is lower than the 13% simple average for the three Singapore banks, partly owing to market concerns that DBS's allowances for collateralised debt obligations could be high. DBS has clarified that none of the CDOs whose value was marked down is in default, and we believe investors will be more optimistic about DBS's prospects. We roll over the base for valuation to 2008 and, using a 2.4x P/RNTA, arrive at a target price of $25. - UOB KayHian (Oct 30) Oniontech (Nov 1: 11 cents) TP: 6 cents MAINTAIN SELL. The company has announced that the contract with LG Telecom for its Ring Back Tone Services (RBT) will not be renewed next year. This news will have a negative impact on the company as RBT was the biggest driver for the growth in revenue ? contributing 66% and 70% of total revenues in 2005 and 2006 respectively. With the contract set to be terminated by year-end, we have trimmed our estimate of the revenues in 2008 by 60%to $13.5 million and expect a net loss of $200,000 in FY2008. With no contribution from RBT in 2008 and subsidiaries continuing to make losses, we see no potential drivers for growth. At P/BV of 0.5x, we arrive at a fair value of six cents. - DBS Vickers Securities (Oct 29) Aztech Systems (Nov 1: 38 cents) TP: 47 cents MAINTAIN BUY. Revenue increased 8.9 % y-o-y to $67.5 million but net profit was down 28.6% to $3.6 million. For the FY to date, Aztech has secured $270 million worth of contracts, of which $85 million has yet to be fulfilled. Our FY2007 revenue and net profit forecasts are lowered to $264.3 million and $17.5 million respectively. Revenue and net profit forecasts for FY2008 have also been reduced to $324.7 million and $23.8 million. Our recurrent free cash flow-derived fair value has been lowered to 47 cents after revising our forecasts downwards. At its current price of 37 cents, Aztech is trading at a discount of 27.1 % to our fair value and with a forecast dividend yield of 3.6%. - NRA Capital (Oct 30) Federal Int'l (2000) (Nov 1: 83 cents) TP: $1.02 MAINTAIN BUY. Federal announced that it had entered into a stock sale agreement with T-3 Energy Services Inc for the sale of Federal's 60 %-owned Houston-based subsidiary, HP&T Products Inc. Federal's gain on the disposal of HP&T is $15.8 million. We are concerned about the FSO supply market and the execution risks faced in these maiden projects. As such, we await the successful execution of its BOT project for Natural Fuel Ltd in the next few months. Our revised forecast is now $23.2 million and $16.6 million for FY2007 and FY2008 from $17.1 million and $20.4 million respectively. Our fair value is revised slightly downwards to $1.02 (from $1.05), based on a PER of 15x FY2008 fully diluted earnings. - OCBC Investment Research (Nov 1) Osim Int'l (Nov 1: 60 cents) TP: $1 OUTPERFORM. Annualised 3Q2007 core Osim EPS of six cents equates to a PER of 10x. This excludes any value for Brookstone. The shares appear to have found a floor at 60 cents. At this level, assuming zero value for Brookstone, the Osim brand is valued at only US$220 million. We introduce a new fair value of $1, representing an upside of 68 %. Our fair value is based on a value of 80 cents for core Osim (12.5x 2008E core Osim EPS) and a value of 20 cents for Brookstone (half of our estimated valuation of 40 cents based on 10x 2008E EV/Ebitda, to take into account current US macro concerns and resulting forecasting risk). Our new forecasts assume 12 % revenue growth for core Osim in both FY2008E and FY2009E. - Cazenove Research (Oct 29) Chartered Semiconductor Mfg (Nov 1: $1.10) TP: $1.13 MAINTAIN HOLD. Revenue is down 0.1 % y-o-y but up 9.4 % q-o-q at US$354.8 million. The results beat its guidance of a muted 2 % to 6 % q-o-q rise to US$332 million to $344 million, and our US$340 million ($493 million) forecast. However, Chartered surprised with an unexpected tax benefit of US$118.5 million, boosting its net profit to US$114.8 million. As such, we are bumping our FY2007 earnings estimate up from a net loss of US$8.9 million (before accretion) to a net profit of US$98.2 million. Excluding the tax benefit, the net loss actually increases to US$20.3 million. Still, because of the tax benefit, our fair value improves from $1.09 to $1.13, still based on based on 1.3x blended FY2007/08 NTA. - OCBC Investment Research (Oct 26) Hiap Hoe (Nov 1: 93.5 cents) TP: $1.45 MAINTAIN BUY. Hiap Hoe entered into another 60:40 joint venture with Superbowl Holdings recently to acquire a freehold residential site, The Aspine, along Balmoral Road for $138 million (no development charge payable). Prices have been locked in for developments that have been launched and fully sold, and no adjustment of the average selling price (ASP) is required. The assumed ASP for upcoming launches was reduced by 10% to reflect negative sentiment resulting from the withdrawal of the deferred payment scheme. We have revised our price target for Hiap Hoe to $1.45, pegged at parity to RNAV. Hiap Hoe is trading at 19.1x FY2007F PER and 4.7x FY2008F PER (54% upside). - Westcomb Securities (Oct 30) Ossia Int'l (Nov 1: 40 cents) TP: 49 cents UPGRADE TO BUY. Ossia is selling its 80% stake in its Millie's footwear business to Belle Int'l Holdings for HK$480 million ($90 million). With the disposal of a major future earnings driver, we believe that Ossia will be in search of new opportunities to drive the group forward. Management plans to distribute part of the proceeds from the sale to shareholders in the form of a cash and/or capital-reduction exercise. At the current share price, the market is not attaching any value to the rest of Ossia's distribution business, which is profitable. We have raised our 12-month target price to 49 cents from 25 cents after factoring in the potential realizable value for its investment in Millie's and fine-tuning our valuation approach. - Standard & Poor's (Oct 29) Chuan Hup Holdings (Nov 1: 39.5 cents) TP: 48 cents BUY. Following the sale of CHH's marine logistics business to Scomi Group in September 2005, CHH is now an investment holding company. Its key holdings include a 23.2 % stake in Scomi Marine, 23 % in CH Offshore, 33 % in PCI and stakes in several listed property entities in Australia. CHH recently reported stellar FY2007 results, with net profit surging 28 % to US$23 million, boosting NAV per share to 33 US cents. The stock currently trades at a steep 24% discount to NAV. Our SOTP valuation for the stock works out to 54 cents. Applying a 10% holding company discount, our target price is 48 cents, with 26% potential upside. - Kelive Research (Nov 1) Jackspeed Corp (Nov 1: 23.5 cents) TP: 19 cents DOWNGRADE TO SELL. 1HFY2008 net profit of $1 million (-32 % y-o-y) was within our expectations. The profit decline was mainly due to a 28% fall in leather sales to $10.7 million, higher raw material costs and a $300,000 start-up loss by its Thai associates, Aapico Jackspeed and Katsuya Thailand. We are maintaining our FY2008 and FY2009 net profit forecasts of $3.3 million and $4.2 million respectively. At the current price, Jackspeed is trading at a 21 % premium to our revised 12-month target price of 19 cents, a result of the rolling forward of the target PER to FY2009. Our target price is based on 9x our projected FY2009 EPS of 1.94 cents, and adding estimated net dividend per share of one cent. - Standard & Poor's (Nov 1) Pan Hong Property (Nov 1: 96.5 cents) TP: $1.29 MAINTAIN OUTPERFORM. Based on pre-sold units of its Nanchang project as at early October, we believe Pan Hong has locked in almost 100% of our estimated revenue for FY2007 and 14 % for FY2008. We have lifted our FY2007 to FY2009 EPS estimates between 1.5 % and 32.2 % as we raise the ASP for different projects between 11 % and 25 %. With 1.8 million sq m of attributable land bank spread across second- and third-tier cities in China, Pan Hong is set to tap the expanding property market. We continue to peg our target price at our NAV estimate of $1.29, which now includes our revised assumptions and value-enhancement from potential land deals. - CIMB-GK Research (Oct 31) CWT (Nov 1: $1.29) TP: $1.46 MAINTAIN BUY. CWT has entered into a joint venture with SPL Co Ltd - a consortium of local logistics professionals - to develop logistics facilities in Vietnam, a fast-growing economy in Southeast Asia. Following our last report dated Aug 20, CWT has exceeded our previous price target of $1.10. Over the past 12 months, its network has grown tremendously with the inclusion of the Tianjin Logistic Hub, and Ukraine and Vietnam logistic facilities. We believe it is justified to reduce the RNAV discount factor to 20 %, down from 40% previously, to recognise this growth. As such, we raise our price target to $1.46, providing an upside potential of 15 %. - Westcomb Securities (Nov 1) Jiutian Chemical Group (Nov 1: 63 cents) TP: 75 cents MAINTAIN OUTPERFORM. We visited Jiutian's new DMF plant in China recently and witnessed the plant's fast ramp-up. We also saw the construction of the new methanol plant, on track for trial production by mid-2008. In view of higher methanol prices recently, we expect margins to decline over the next three quarters before the plant comes onstream. We have reduced our FY2007/08 EPS forecasts between 12 % and 29 % to factor in lower ASP assumptions, a slower ramp-up of the methanol plant and higher methanol prices. However, our DCF-derived target price has been raised from 63 cents to 75 cents (WACC 14 %, LTG 1.5 %) as we roll forward our valuation basis to CY2008. - CIMB-GK Research (Oct 31) Samudera Shipping Line (Nov 1: 42 cents) TP: 50 cents UPGRADE TO BUY. 3Q2007 revenue fell 9.4% y-o-y to $149 million, mainly owing to the shift in container volume mix and the weakening of the US dollar. However, the decline was mitigated by the increase in industrial shipping revenue, better vessel utilisation and the successful of the rationalisation of its shipping services. Margins also improved significantly from the previous period. Gross profit margin was 12.8 % and net profit margin registered at 6.9 %. Pegged at an undemanding 8.5x FY2007 earnings and P/BV of 0.9x, this counter has a fair value estimate of 50 cents. - Phillip Securities Research (Nov 1) Singapore Airlines (Nov 1: $19.70) TP: $22.80 MAINTAIN BUY. SIA has posted a net profit of $507.8 million for 2Q2008, bringing its half-year tally to $931.9 million. The quarterly result represented a 73 % improvement over 2Q2007 and a 20% growth over an already-impressive 1Q2008. This level of profit growth was also achieved despite strong headwinds of fuel costs, which saw market jet kerosene prices rise by 16% over the quarter. With the good result, SIA has declared an interim dividend of 20 cents a share (tax-exempt and single-tier). We are raising our FY2008 forecast for SIA by 15 % to $1.9 billion, from $17 billion previously. On the back of this, we are raising our fair value target price on SIA to $22.80 from $21.30 previously. - Kim Eng Research (Nov 1) SP Chemicals (Nov 1: $1.12) TP: $1.36 DOWNGRADE TO NEUTRAL. 3Q2007 net profit of 57 million renminbi ($11 million) (down 13 % y-o-y) is 7% and 5% below consensus and our expectations, respectively. Key variances were lower-than-expected sales and higher-thanexpected interest expenses. 9M2007 net profit forms 71 % and 81 % of consensus and our previous full-year forecasts, respectively. Sales declined 18% y-o-y in 3Q2007 on the back of weaker aniline and caustic soda prices and lowerthan-expected aniline output. Our EPS estimates have been cut in response to lower ASP assumptions and a slower ramp for its vinyl chloride monomer plant. Accordingly, our target price has been reduced from $1.83 to $1.36, still based on 6x CY2008 earnings, or a 50% discount to Singapore Exchange-listed chemical producers. - CIMBGK Research (Oct 31) United Overseas Bank (Nov 1: $21.20) TP: $24 BUY. UOB's 9M2007 profit $1.6 billion was 74 % of FY2007 estimates but 3Q profit of $501 million (down 14% q-o-q) was disappointing. We maintain forecasts as management guided that much of the marked-to-market losses in 3Q were likely one-off and underlying mortgage growth (up 21 % y-o-y) are firm, suggesting a better core performance in 4Q. Our target price is $24. Using a dividend discount model, assuming a 2008E net dividend per share of 71 cents, and cost of equity of 10.8%, we arrive at a fair-value PER of 14.5x 2008E, which when applied to our 2008E EPS of $1.64, derives a fair value of $24, or a 2007E PER of 16.7x. - Citigroup Research (Oct 30) Singapore Airport Terminal Services (Nov 1: $2.93) TP: $3.59 MAINTAIN BUY. SATS registered 2QFY2008 net profit of $49 million, down 7% y-o-y but up 1% q-o-q. The core business in Singapore performed in line with our expectations but profit contribution from overseas joint ventures was lower than expected. Although SATS' earnings remain unexciting, we continue to like it as a cheaper, scarce and less risky investment in the strong Asian air traffic growth, particularly with the current volatile fuel prices. Valuations are at a 40 % discount to peers. Interim DPS is four cents (45% payout ratio) but higher/special dividends are likely, given SATS' strong cash flow and low maintenance capital expenditure in the next two to three years. Cash levels have risen to $590 million, or 55 cents a share, as at end-September, amounting to 18 % of current market cap. Target price of $3.59. - Citigroup Research (Oct 31) Suntec REIT (Nov 1: $1.83) TP: $2.18 MAINTAIN BUY. Suntec REIT reported 4Q2007 revenue of $51.1 million (up 14 % y-o-y and 9% q-o-q). Distributable income was equally strong at $30.4 million (up 22% y-o-y and 1% q-o-q). At the DPU level, growth was more moderate at 11 % y-o-y and 1% q-o-q to 2.12 cents. Growth was mainly due to the increase in office and retail revenue, owing to better rates and higher occupancy rates. However, higher property expenses, specifically from higher property tax and property management fees, eroded much of the better revenue. This led to NPI margin falling from to 71% from 73 % in 3Q2007 and 4Q2006. The results were 4.5 better than our estimates. Fair value of $2.18. - OCBC Investment Research (Oct 30) UOL Group (Nov 1: $5.10) TP: $5.85 MAINTAIN BUY. UOL's 3Q2007 net profit of $64.5 million came in above expectations, owing to a $17.8 million negative goodwill. Otherwise, bottom line would have risen 48 % y-o-y, led by better performance across all its operating divisions. Its hotel operations enjoyed better operating leverage and residential contributions were supported by continued progressive billings from four pre-sold projects. Rental income benefited from decanting activities at Novena Square and better rental rates at its commercial properties. UOL should continue to enjoy robust hotel and leasing income, thanks to strong demand and better rates. The stock is trading at a 14% discount to our price target of $5.85. - DMG & Partners (Oct 29) SMRT (Nov 1: $1.77) TP: $1.52 SELL. 2Q net profit rose 25% to $40 million, owing to lower-than-expected operating costs and higher MRT revenues. Rail revenues improved 5.7% on a 6% rise in ridership. Bus revenues were 0.7% higher but Ebit declined to $800,000 from $1.6 million in 2Q2007, owing to higher staff and diesel costs. Taxi operations turned around with a small profit of $200,000. Ebit from the retail space progressed 16%. We raise our FY2008 to FY2010 forecasts between 8% and 10% on higher rail revenues and lower operating costs, and raise our target price to $1.66 from $1.52 on our higher FY2009 EPS forecast, applying a PER of 18x. SMRT trades at a high PER of 19x FY2009, which we deem rich relative to growth, yet is supported by an estimated net yield of 4.2. - Citigroup Research (Oct 29) Thomson Medical Centre (Nov 1: 74.5 cents) TP: 78.5 cents MAINTAIN BUY. Net profit grew 40.3 % to $9.5 million on the back of revenue growth of 12.6 % to $52.4 million. For 2112007, net profit grew 45.1 % to $5.1 million and revenue grew 17% to $28.1 million. The growth of the top line is mainly driven by both the hospital operations and ancillary services, as well as specialised and other services business segments. We forecast FY2008 net profit of $10.5 million, representing a 10.4% growth y-o-y and 18.1 % growth y-o-y, if we remove the one-time gain on FY2007. We still peg our PER at 24x FY2007, and reach a fair value of 78.5 cents. If we consider the estimated interim dividend for FY2008 (two cents a share) and the declared dividend for FY2007 (one cent a share), both together give us an upside potential 16.4%. - Phillip Securities Research (Oct 31) Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings (Nov 1: $2.41) TP: $3.05 BUY. We continue to like YZJ as a key beneficiary of the wave of shipbuilding orders flowing to China, which is gaining market share from South Korean and Japanese shipyards. As the largest private containership builder in China and among the top 10 globally for containerships, we believe YZJ is well positioned to benefit from the strong demand for bulk carriers and containerships. Backed by a record order book of 35.8 billion renminbi, representing 9x its FY2007 revenue, this underpins earnings visibility till FY2010. Our target price of $3.04 is based on a target PER of 28x on FY2009 earnings for YZJ, translating into an undemanding PEG of 0.6x on its three-year EPS CAGR of 58 %. - DBS Vickers Securities (Oct 29) Copyright Disclaimer Read More...
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me

                                                         First   1-3 of 3   Last