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OIL hit a high of US$81 a barrel.
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mirage
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26-Oct-2007 08:51
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NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures rallied to a new all-time high above $90 a barrel on Thursday, propelled by concerns over energy supply and tensions in the Middle East.
Other energy futures also surged, drawing strength from the record-breaking run higher in crude.
Crude oil for December delivery rallied $3.36, or nearly 4%, to end at a record $90.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the contract hit an intraday all-time high of $90.60 a barrel.
"It was an explosive day. They've blown the top off this market," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading. "Another bullish perfect storm."
"You had the Iranian sanctions that caused nervousness, doubts about OPEC's ability to increase production," Flynn said. "You had another weak dollar today and strong commodities across the board."
Bullish news fuels run-up
A combination of factors fuelled the history-making run-up in crude prices, including the imposition of new sanctions by the U.S. on Iran for supporting terrorism. The new measures target the finances of Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps and three state-owned banks, the BBC reported.
Adding more fire to the rally in crude futures were comments from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC Secretary General Abdalla el-Badri said Thursday in an interview with The Wall Street Journal Asia that the cartel isn't involved in any discussions on a further increase in oil output beyond the 500,000 barrels a day due to come into the market in November.
Badri also said that there is no shortage of oil in the market, the Journal reported.
Separately, U.K. tanker tracker Oil Movements reported that OPEC shipments for the four weeks ended Nov. 10 will only increase 20,000 barrels a day from the previous four weeks, according to Dow Jones Newswires.
Earlier Thursday, the crude market further got a boost from media reports that Lebanese troops opened fire on Israeli warplanes flying low over southern Lebanon. No hits were reported, according to the Associated Press.
"I've been bullish since you've known me and even I am amazed at the strength of this market," Flynn said. "With most traders believing that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates [next week], that's like declaring an open season on buying oil."
The dollar fell against its major counterparts Thursday, after a larger-than-expected decline in durable-goods orders in September added to evidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut next week might be on the greater side of market expectations. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of major currencies, fell 0.4% at 77.27. See Currencies.
Since oil is denominated in dollars, weakness in the U.S. currency increases the attractiveness of oil as an investment asset.
"If another Fed rate cut is seen, it will likely brighten the economic outlook and free up funds for further energy speculation," said Michael Fitzpatrick, an analyst at MF Global, in a research note.
On Wednesday, crude surged $1.83 to end at $87.10 a barrel after the Energy Department reported that crude supplies dropped by a much higher-than-expected 5.3 million barrels in the latest week. See Futures Movers.
"Technically, the moves of the past few days turned a strongly positive switch on in the crude market," said Zachary Oxman, a senior trader at Wisdom Financial, in emailed comments.
"I think we'll see $95 within the next month or two, quite possibly $100 by year's end," Oxman said.
Other energy futures also surge
On Nymex, other energy futures also rallied. November reformulated gasoline surged 8.83 cents, or 4%, to finish at $2.2358 a gallon. November heating oil rose 6.64 cents to end at $2.4084 a gallon.
November natural gas surged 21.60 cents, or 3%, to end at $7.188 per million British thermal units. Traders shrugged off a bearish inventory report.
Natural-gas supplies rose by 68 billion cubic feet to 3,443 billion cubic feet in the week ending Oct. 19, the Energy Department reported Thursday. The number was above market expectations.
"Trading in energy markets remains on an extremely bullish tone," said Ivan Holman, an analyst at Moody's Economy.com, in a research note. "Fear of dwindling oil supplies, renewed geopolitical tensions and the falling dollar are clearly putting upward pressure on crude prices."
"Natural gas prices have recently gained upward impetus from the uptick in oil prices," Holman said. As oil and natural gas are used as substitutes in production for some utility concerns, price movements of the two commodities tend to be correlated, he said.
Energy stocks were mostly higher. See Energy Stocks.
Gold futures rose, as weakness in the dollar and rallying crude-oil prices boosted demand for the precious metal. See Metals Stocks.
 Polya Lesova is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York.
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mirage
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22-Oct-2007 22:45
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mirage
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18-Oct-2007 16:46
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Oil prices were mixed in Asian trade on Thursday after an unexpectedly strong US energy stockpiles report offset market worries over tensions in the oil-rich Middle East. New York's main futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in November, was 10 cents higher at 87.50 dollars per barrel in afternoon trade. "I think reality is coming back into play here," said Steve Rowles, an analyst with CFC Seymour in Hong Kong. After six straight sessions of rising prices in New York, the contract finished lower there on Wednesday, settling at 87.40 dollars per barrel after spiking to a new high of 89.00 dollars in intra-day trade. The fresh peak came just after the Turkish parliament voted to allow military strikes against Kurdish rebels based in northern Iraq. Brent crude for December delivery was 14 cents lower at 82.99 dollars per barrel. The Brent November contract expired on Tuesday after hitting an all-time high of 84.49 dollars. Tensions along the Turkey-Iraq border helped oil prices gain more than four dollars this week before they eased. "The worst-case scenario was plaguing the market," Rowles said. Turkish legislators on Wednesday approved a government motion seeking a one-year authorisation for one or more incursions into Iraq. But the motion leaves it up to the government to determine the timing and scope of the operation and the number of troops to be sent. Meanwhile comments Wednesday by US President George Bush highlighted uncertainties in the Middle East. He said he had warned world leaders they must prevent crude producer Iran from getting nuclear weapons "if you're interested in avoiding World War III." Abdalla Salem El-Badri, chief of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), expressed "concern" on Tuesday at surging prices but argued they did not reflect the true state of supply and demand. The US Department of Energy said Wednesday that American crude reserves jumped 1.8 million barrels in the week ending Oct 12, beating analyst forecasts of 1.05 million. Stockpiles of distillates, which include diesel and heating oils, leapt by 1.0 million barrels, confounding market expectations of a drop of 750,000 barrels. "The DoE's report is bearish. The builds in both gasoline and crude oil stockpiles were greater than forecast, and the build in distillate inventories was unexpected," said Eric Wittenauer, an analyst at AG Edwards. "Meanwhile, the demand numbers continue to look very weak," he said during US trading hours. |
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Livermore
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18-Oct-2007 07:32
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This morning news : Oil price could reach US$95 by end of next year. "Tighten your seat belts" for higher petrol price. |
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mirage
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18-Oct-2007 07:28
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NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday after escalating oil prices quashed an earlier rally, but the technology-dominated Nasdaq Composite retained solid gains on profits from bellwethers United Technologies Corp. and Intel Corp.
"One of the negative catalysts on the market this week is the rising price per barrel of crude oil; for the first time in the better part of a year we had a significant increase in commodity prices that is not tied to supply and demand, but geopolitical concerns," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co.
After rallying early on, Wall Street's about-face coincided with another record rise in crude-oil futures as well as comments by President Bush, who told a White House news conference that the United States is trying to discourage Turkey from sending troops into Iraq. Read more.
"Unfortunately this particular leader of the free world has never made the market go up by talking," said Hogan.
Up and down 100 points throughout the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Last: 13,892.54-20.40-0.15%
4:30pm 10/17/2007 Delayed quote data Sponsored by: The S&P 500 ($SPX:
S&P 500 Index
Last: 1,541.24+2.71+0.18%
5:00pm 10/17/2007 Delayed quote data Sponsored by: Nasdaq Composite Index
Last: 2,792.67+28.76+1.04%
5:17pm 10/17/2007 Delayed quote data Sponsored by: After surging to a new intraday record of $89 after news reports that Turkey's parliament authorized a cross-border military offensive into northern Iraq to hunt down Kurdish rebels, crude finished lower, with the contract for November delivery off 21 cents at $87.12. See Futures Movers.
Volume on the New York Stock Exchange topped 1.4 billion, and advancing stocks topped declining issues 16 to 15. On the Nasdaq, nearly 2.4 billion shares traded hands, and advancing stocks ran just ahead decliners.
"You can pile the list of possible suspects," Hogan said. "We're concerned about the Turkish parliament move, the weaker dollar and the price of oil going up."
"None of these are new, but directionally, this market had been wobbly since the start. In the greater sense, people are looking at the valuation of stocks and trying to rationalize it with overall guidance from reporting companies."
"Outside of tech, it's hard to point to another sector that's going to make or beat the trend."
Technology lifted by earnings
Reversing course after two days of losses, stocks had moved broadly higher early in the session, on positive earnings from the technology sector.
"Better-than-expected results from bellwether technology names gave us faith that this technology-led rally could continue through this earnings season," said Hogan.
Chipmaker Intel (INTC:
Intel Corporation
Last: 26.72+1.24+4.87%
4:00pm 10/17/2007 Delayed quote data Sponsored by: United Technologies Corporation
Last: 76.80-2.85-3.58%
4:01pm 10/17/2007 Delayed quote data Sponsored by: jp morgan chase & co com
Last: 46.37+1.26+2.79%
4:00pm 10/17/2007 Delayed quote data Sponsored by: The Coca-Cola Company
Last: 59.09+1.33+2.30%
4:01pm 10/17/2007 Delayed quote data Sponsored by: The government reports included word from the Labor Department that U.S. consumer prices climbed 0.3% in September on higher food and energy costs. Core inflation, which strips out the volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.2% for the fourth month in a row. Read more.
"You would have had to be asleep not to know food and gas prices were up significantly. But when you flip to core inflation, it came in right as advertised," said Bill Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management.
Companies in this story
Related MarketWatch news
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mirage
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17-Oct-2007 17:30
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Quotes: Oil prices eased slightly in Asia on Wednesday but remained above 87 dollars per barrel in a market focused on a potential Turkish incursion into northern Iraq. While expressing concern at the price rise, the chief of the OPEC oil cartel said the world oil market remains well supplied. New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in November, was 23 cents lower in afternoon trade at 87.38 dollars per barrel. In US trade on Tuesday, oil struck a record intraday high of 88.20 dollars before dropping back to settle above 87 dollars for the first time, at 87.61 dollars per barrel. On Monday it jumped more than two dollars. Brent crude oil for December delivery was 23 cents lower at 83.32 dollars per barrel. In London trade on Tuesday, Brent for November delivery advanced 1.41 dollars to settle at 84.16 dollars, after hitting an all-time high of 84.49 dollars during the session. Oil prices surged as investors focused on Turkey, where the parliament is expected to adopt a government motion on Wednesday to allow cross-border operations against bases of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Iraq. The White House has urged Turkey to refrain from any unilateral action that could further destabilise Iraq, while Iraq's deputy prime minister warned of "grave consequences" for the stability of his country and the region. Steve Rowles, an analyst with CFC Seymour in Hong Kong, said the market has not been as worried over a geopolitical issue since last July when Israel and Hezbollah guerrillas battled in Lebanon. That conflict led oil to spike to a then-record above 78 dollars per barrel. Rowles said that while it is difficult to predict how the current tensions will play out, "I just think that overall the tensions will eventually subside." Rowles said that Iraq "isn't the oil producer that it once was." Abdalla Salem El-Badri, chief of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said Tuesday that the cartel was "concerned" at the price spike but argued current levels did not reflect the true state of supply and demand. The market is "very well supplied," he said. Rowles agrees. He said a weekly US Department of Energy report on inventories, to be issued later Wednesday, is expected to show a build up in crude stocks. In the broader context he said that the Atlantic Ocean hurricane season, which poses a potential threat to oil installations, is drawing to a close, and forecasts are for a relatively mild North American winter. "Where is the problem?" he asked. |
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mirage
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16-Oct-2007 18:10
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Quotes: Singapore shares were lower at the end of the morning session Tuesday on renewed concerns over US credit markets and record oil prices. At midday, the benchmark Straits Times Index retreated 16.07 points or 0.4 percent to 3,845.95, after falling to as low as 3,825.95. Trading volume reached 1.5 billion shares worth 1.4 billion Singapore dollars. Losers outpaced gainers 427 to 226 with 1,883 stocks unchanged. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed over 100 points Monday as news that major US banks will set up a fund to help bail out credit markets raised fresh concerns about bad debt. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments that the deepening housing woes in the US could significantly drag economic growth until early next year also dampened sentiment. It appears that the "worst is not yet over in the US due to its bad debt crisis," DMG & Partners Securities said in a note to clients. "Investors are advised to consider high-yield defensive stocks or counters with promising industry outlooks, such as construction and oil and marine industry in their portfolio," Westcomb Financial said in a note. Banking stocks pulled down the Straits Times Index, with United Overseas Bank off 20 cents to 22.50 dollars, and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp down 10 cents at 9.25 dollars. DBS Group was unchanged at 22.40 dollars. Uncertainties over banks' provisioning for collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) may have been preventing a sharp rally in share prices of banks. "Operationally there is no concern, nobody doubts that Singapore banks are doing well but stock prices came down because of CDOs," said Sanjay Jain, analyst at Credit Suisse. Jain is hoping that the banks will reflect CDO-related losses in the third quarter "so they can put the problem behind them once and for all." Some property stocks declined as latest government data showed slower residential property sales last month. CapitaLand fell 20 cents to 8.00 dollars, Keppel Land dropped 10 cents to 8.60 dollars, Wing Tai retreated 14 cents to 3.64 dollars, and Allgreen fell 4 cents to 1.89 dollars. "The collapse in home sales in September can be attributed to the US subprime woes which affected the stock market and the sentiment of home buyers as well as speculators," OCBC Securities said. Nonetheless, OCBC sees this as a positive, indicating buyers will exercise more caution and not overpay for properties. Blue chip Singapore Press Holdings rose 4 cents to 4.56 dollars on hopes of strong earnings in the years ahead, backed by strong pick up in advertising expenses in Singapore and robust contributions from its property business. Oil and gas-related stocks also bucked the trend as crude oil prices rose to a fresh record above 86 US dollars a barrel due to concerns mounting tensions between Turkey and Kurdish rebels in Iraq may disrupt oil supplies from the Middle East. Higher oil prices are expected to support continued investment in oil exploration activities, which bode well for Singapore companies that supply oil exploration rigs and other vessels to the oil and gas industry. Debutant Mermaid Maritime, a Thai provider of subsea drilling and engineering services for the oil and gas exploration industry, was last trading at 1.94 Singapore dollars, above its offer price of 1.56 dollars. Keppel Corp, one of the biggest suppliers of oil rigs in the world, added 20 cents at 15.20 dollars. Ezra Holdings, a company that charters support vessels to the oil and gas industry gained 10 cents at 7 dollars. Indonesia's Berlian Laju, operator of oil tankers, jumped 6 cents to 41 cents. The stock has been rising since the company announced Monday that it is acquiring Chembulk Tankers LLC, a US company that operates 16 tankers, for 850 million US dollars. Sky China Petroleum, a Chinese company that provides drilling and other engineering services to the oil and gas industry in the mainland, was up 4.5 cents at 66.5 cents. Oil refiner Singapore Petroleum which has acquired oil fields in Indonesia and China, added 40 cents to 8.55 dollars. Shares of South Korean bulk shipping company STX Pan Ocean Co Ltd continued to rally, rising 30 cents to 4.18 dollars after the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks the cost of shipping various commodities such as iron ore, soared to a new all-time high due to strong demand for iron ore in China. |
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mirage
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16-Oct-2007 18:06
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Quotes: Brent crude oil breached the 83-dollar mark for the first time in Asian trade on Tuesday to reach a new all-time high of 83.09 dollars per barrel. Brent North Sea crude for November delivery was 34 cents higher in afternoon trade, after spiking 2.20 dollars to 82.75 dollars per barrel in London on Monday. World oil prices have jumped to new records amid mounting tension between Turkey and Kurdish rebels across the border in Iraq. In afternoon trade New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in November, was quoted at 86.73 dollars per barrel, 60 cents higher than in late New York trades on Monday. Brent's previous record, 81.05 dollars per barrel, was hit late last month, while New York crude has surpassed its former all-time peak of 84.10 dollars reached in September. |
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mirage
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21-Sep-2007 09:05
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QUOTES: SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures closed above $83 a barrel Thursday, sending the expiring benchmark contract further into uncharted territory on news that oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico shut down 28% of production ahead of what's expected to become the tenth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Crude oil for October delivery briefly climbed as high as $84.10 a barrel in electronic trading, a level never before seen by a front-month contract. It closed up $1.39, or 1.7%, at $83.32 after reaching $83.90 during the regular trading session on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The expiration of the October crude contracts at the end of the day's session likely added to the market volatility. November became the lead-month contract at the close. That contract closed up 93 cents at $81.78.
Two forces really hit the market into the close: the potential storm and the futures contract expiration, said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Alaron Trading.
An area of low pressure has entered the Gulf of Mexico and could become a tropical depression in the next 12 to 24 hours, Accuweather.com reported Thursday afternoon. The system could become Tropical Storm Jerry on Friday, it said.
The system is expected to move toward Texas or Louisiana over the weekend, threatening gas and oil fields as well as refineries in the northwest Gulf and nearby coastal areas, it said.
"Traders are taking this very seriously," said Flynn. They "learned a lesson from Hurricane Humberto that these things can develop quickly. Producers in the Gulf aren't taking any chances and shutting down production."
Oil and gas operations in the Gulf have started to evacuate platforms and rigs in the path of what's currently called Tropical Area of Investigation 93 L, according to the U.S. Minerals Management Service.
MMS estimates that about 27.5% of oil production in the Gulf has been shut in, or roughly 360,169 barrels of oil per day. It points out that estimate oil output from the Gulf as of April 2007 was 1.3 million barrels of oil per day.
Also, about 16.7% of natural-gas production in the Gulf has been shut-in, MMS said.
Extended rally
Still, after hitting consecutive highs, oil prices may be a bit tired.
"There is no doubt that after setting six-consecutive records, crude prices are severely overbought and due for a pullback," said Edward Meir, analyst at MF Global, in a research note.
"However, yesterday did not seem to be the time for such a decline, as the combination of constructive EIA [Energy Information Administration] numbers, weather concerns, and a continuation of the 'relief rally' engineered by the Fed on Tuesday, all combined to keep the crude complex well bid," Meir said.
Recent storm activity has contributed to declines in U.S. refinery activity. Refinery utilization fell to 89.6% of capacity for the week ended Sept. 14, from 90.5% a week earlier, the Energy Department reported Wednesday.
At the same time, crude supplies fell by 3.8 million barrels, motor gasoline inventories climbed by 400,000 barrels and distillate supplies rose by 1.5 million last week, the report said. See full story.
On Thursday, October reformulated gasoline closed at $2.1351 a gallon, up 4.17 cents, or 2%. October heating oil closed up 1.56 cents at $2.2609 a gallon.
"As long as inventories of crude keep dropping, I think we can expect the price to keep rising," said Charles Perry, chairman of energy-consulting firm Perry Management.
But he said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is concerned about the price climb. The group of key oil producers would "really like to se the price fall, and [that] may cause them to increase production," said Perry.
"What OPEC fears is conservation and alternate fuels, both of which are encouraged by higher prices," he said.
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mirage
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19-Sep-2007 11:42
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Quotes: Oil prices topped 82 US dollars on Wednesday, soaring to a fresh record in Asian trade after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to boost the US economy. At 10:20 am (0220 GMT), New York's main futures contract, light sweet crude for October delivery, was trading at a new all-time high of 82.32 dollars a barrel, up 81 cents from its close of 81.51 dollars in late US trades Tuesday. Brent North Sea crude for November delivery was 79 cents higher at 78.38 dollars a barrel. "We are in a new territory for oil pricing," said Victor Shum, a Singapore-based analyst with energy consultancy Purvin and Gertz. Tony Nunan, manager for energy risk management at Mitsubishi Corp in Tokyo, said the 85 dollar mark was now within striking distance. "Prices have broken through a lot of strong technical resistance already. I assume 85 dollars is a round number that the market is targetting," he said. He said the half-point cut in key rates by the US Federal Reserve was aimed at calming fears of a slowdown in the US economy, which has been grappling with a crisis in the subprime housing loan market. "It's a pretty big boost to the equity markets and it's calming the fears about a slowing economy. It is also providing more fuel to the fire in the oil markets," Nunan said. The US rates reduction is expected to cushion the impact on the general economy of a credit crunch sparked by the subprime crisis. The fear is that an economic slump in the United States, the world's biggest energy consumer, will dent demand for oil. Nunan said concerns over falling US energy inventories ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter season have also helped boost oil prices, highlighting tight supplies amid high demand. "The key issue will be how much the inventory will continue to fall," he said. |
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Pension
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18-Sep-2007 18:54
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dun worry when it hit 80, worry when it hit 100. |
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mirage
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18-Sep-2007 17:49
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In the Last Days, there will be wars and rumors of wars. There will be increase in earthquakes. | |||||||||||||||
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18-Sep-2007 16:29
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Why did oil future keep on climbing recently? One may speculate that may be the planning for War on Iran is on the card consider that recently, French and now Russian minister took turns to issue such warning in a high profile manner. Could there be a sudden shock wave coming our way? | |||||||||||||||
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mirage
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18-Sep-2007 11:37
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QUOTES: Oil prices topped 81 dollars a barrel for the first time on Tuesday, setting another record high amid fears of critically tight supplies for the winter season in the United States. OPEC's announcement last week that it would pump an extra 500,000 barrels per day from November has failed to stop the surge in price, with some analysts predicting it could keep soaring to 85 dollars and beyond. At 9.52 am (0152 GMT), New York's main futures contract, light sweet crude for October delivery, rose 46 cents to 81.03 dollars a barrel. The jump followed a run overnight in New York, when the contract spiked 1.47 dollars to 80.57 dollars per barrel after rising to an intraday high of 80.70 dollars. "The door to 80 has been opened," said Victor Shum, senior principal at Purvin and Gertz Inc. He said the mood had changed Monday as speculators drove up the price over concerns about tight supply in the winter months. "In the near-term, the market has limited downside supply risks," he said. Brent North Sea crude for November delivery was 10 cents higher at 77.08 dollars a barrel. Abdalla Salem El-Badri, chief of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said Friday that 80 dollars a barrel for oil did not reflect the current supply and demand situation. But Goldman Sachs analysts said the OPEC decision to boost output came too late to keep prices down. "We believe that this will be too little, too late, barring an outright collapse in demand, and now expect inventories to draw to critical levels this winter," they wrote in an analyst note. They said they were raising their end-2007 price forecast to 85 dollars per barrel, "with a high risk of a spike above 90 dollars per barrel." They unveiled a 2008 average price forecast of 85 dollars per barrel, with a year-end price target of 95 dollars. Shum said there were "widespread worries" over the Goldman Sachs report. "The mood got a lot more bullish," he said. London-based analysts, the Centre for Global Energy Studies, said Monday that the world "will remain short of oil and prices will continue to rise" unless OPEC put enough crude onto the market at prices to attract buyers. Investors are worried that crude supplies are inadequate to meet demand as winter approaches in the United States, the world's biggest energy consumer, and other countries in the Northern Hemisphere. Concerns spiked after the US Department of Energy reported last Wednesday that US crude inventories fell by a sharper-than-expected 7.1 million barrels in the week ended Sept 7. The drop was almost three times steeper than market expectations. The closure of several US refineries in the path of Hurricane Humberto also pressured prices late last week. |
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