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timewatch Senior	20-Oct-2007 18:59        timewatch About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	hi rayphua --i have been waiting for valuetronics for long, it seems to have not moved much. what's your say for it, its TP is 0.47cents, not even close to it. thanks
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jasonfaxingliu Senior	20-Oct-2007 13:50        jasonfaxingliu About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I suffered big losses on paper on Friday close hopping for upturn Monday. Having seen DJ sink down over 300 points, I was like in my nightmare. What should I do when I still hold DBS which worry me most. Others a concern like Sky Petrol, China OilField? Some says STI will dip to 3650 and rebound from there. It apprea to be good for a week later to recover but how soon it will dip to 3650?
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JackTheRippers Member	20-Oct-2007 13:25        JackTheRippers About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The warning on 13th Oct should have provided enough time for all to be ready for a period like this.  And now, the time has come.  Hang on folks, for this roller coaster ride.  Some thoughts to share with you from my post at another site. -------------------- Some thoughts. Perhaps you could use this to figure out what your action plan is for Monday. This drop was anticipated. It was a good thing that I had been keeping track of the Dow movements and saw the flushing out of the funds since the Fed announced the rate cut. Friday's drop of a whopping 370 points (2.6%) with a close at 13522 is this year's top 3 drop of the index. On Friday, it was good that I cleared 2 counters even though they were sitting on breakeven as they had no buffer for errors in anticipation of a drop. I do this alot during times of instability. I'm currently holding 5 counters, all which have proft buffers, some more than the others. A 100 point drop would not affect any of those counters in any big way, but a 370 point drop would certainly wipe the profits off 2 of my holdings since the entries were made on Friday. The other 3 should still be relatively for an exit with profits. Action to take - Sell off all except for my IPO holding (Foreland with monotorium) to go into cash positions. The close with a long red candle without any shadows is a bad sign that could mean a further drop on Monday. I'm not about to take any risk to expect a rebound on Monday. So, ride it out and hope? Or be prudent, and take cash positions? I would prefer not to hope. Instead, sell off instead of getting the funds stuck and buy them cheaper when I see a rebound. First to look for would be the BLUES. I've asked for all to be nimble, now is the time to take action to show how nimble we should be. For all, DJI chart. This image has been resized. Click this bar to view the full image. The original image is sized 1024x791 and weights 411KB.
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cashiertan Elite	16-Oct-2007 23:14        cashiertan About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	smart money can be money flow index MFI
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dhtjanda Member	16-Oct-2007 22:08        dhtjanda About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi Master Ray, May I know how do you clasify "smart money" and how to track them in and out of the stock market? Thank you in advance for sharing
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ghlau935 Veteran	16-Oct-2007 17:28        ghlau935 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thanks "Sifu" Rayphua for your warning........
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rayphua Member	16-Oct-2007 16:33        rayphua About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hope my warnings on 13th Oct was heeded.  Good luck my friends.
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Newbie2007 Member	13-Oct-2007 23:37        Newbie2007 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi Rayphua, Thank you for your reply. Seems like market is geeting hotter now and there is much more chatter in the market. Everyone very excited about their positions now.
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DnApeh Master	13-Oct-2007 22:11        DnApeh About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Welcome back, Mr rayphua! Your postings have been greatly missed. Hope all is well with you.
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rayphua Member	13-Oct-2007 21:48        rayphua About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thanks Synnexo, appreciated.  Just thought I should keep you folks updated on the latest market technicals. Newbie2007, I'm not a follower of the Elliot wave theory, but one thing is certain...many counters would do its biggest surge before a fall.  Retailers take entry on those days, the boys throw their positions to retailers and fund houses. Stx - Momentum weakened the last 2 days.  May rest before another move. Uniasia - Big surge on Friday.  Stay away for now. Labroy - Momentum weakened on Friday. There are better counters to trade.  Cheers.
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Newbie2007 Member	13-Oct-2007 18:09        Newbie2007 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi all, Can someone verify this? I heard about Elliot wave 5 which is the most powerful. It is the wave which signifies the last leg of the bull. Is STI in the last leg of the bull run? I also notice that even though STI is on uptrend, the volume does not increase. In fact, the volume decreases. Does this signal anything? I am very very cautious now. I don mean to scare anyone here. But I need to hear advice from some gurus here. Thank you so much. I am now staying at the sidelines watching the market. Tell myself to be very disciplined not to open any new positions for now. BUT there is so much euphoria in the market now, esp with STX, UniAsia, Labroy on the rise, I do feel the temptation. Please advise. My level of risk tolerance is low.
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synnexo Veteran	13-Oct-2007 17:51        synnexo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hey, Big brother rayphua, its really great to have u back...
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rayphua Member	13-Oct-2007 17:16        rayphua About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 2   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi all, some updates for you. Last week's momentum plays were Oculus, and Pine Agritech.  In and out with very good gains. Anyway...something I thought you guys should take note of now.  See my post extracted from another forum... Some issues to consider today. Nothing too worrying, but ought to be considered. REMEMBER these rules: Trust Mr. Market Do not second guess Mr. Market Please see following DJI chart: Revisiting the July correction - 1. In March, smart money started flowing into the index. 2. Late May, smart money left the index. 3. Sudden surge in index in early July, but money is still out. 4. Market corrects in mid July. After the July correction - 1. Smart money continues to stay out until early August. 2. Smart money starts moving in again mid August. (this happened even before the FOMC announcement about any rate cuts) 3. September 18, sudden surge in index, but smart money starts to leave. 4. Smart money continues to leave even while the index climbs to above 14000 levels. Interesting eh? So, if you're still buying or holding on to equities. Always STAY NIMBLE, just in case the July correction happens again. Do not be caught off-guard. And if it does happen again, rewind your memories to how you felt when the correction happens dwindling your fund size smaller every passing day. Remind yourself to SELL and NOT to hang on to the explosives. Trust the market and do not second guess it. Don't need to stop trading. Just make sure your stocks are liquid to throw just in case it happens. And keep the basket of holding counters manageable. 3 to 5 counters is healthy. This image has been resized. Click this bar to view the full image. The original image is sized 1024x791 and weights 407KB.
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elfinchilde Elite	27-Jul-2007 08:23        elfinchilde About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	agree with rayphua (good to see you back :)) no need to panic. but time to cut back. lock in profits, reduce losses if any. if you have holding power and are in on some good counters since long ago (and your aim is to hold long term), continue holding. for a long term investor, this is all just part of the cycle. advise to avoid props if you're bottom fishing for this period tho. (but try not to bottom fish today! don't catch a falling knife)
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rayphua Member	27-Jul-2007 07:54        rayphua About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	It's been a while since my last post.  Just thought I should share this with all friends here: I believe the day we've all feared has come. Last night, the DJIA fell to its lowest point to 13335 before easing off to 13473, a 311 drop (-2.3%), wiping out all its gains since June. Total trading done was 426,884,260, which was considered an extremely high volume day. A day of panick in the US markets. The worst since February. As mentioned in my earlier post. Be calm. Think rationally. Protect your profits. Protect your gains. Reduce your losses. No biggie. If you trade the markets, expect this. We've all wondered when it would happen. Now it's time to do what we need to do. What goes up, will have to come down, but remember this, it will move up again. Whatever you do not, do not bottom fish or average down. The market has provided us with many good days, this is just one down day. So, chin up folks. This image has been resized. Click this bar to view the full image. The original image is sized 1024x791 and weights 346KB. The following is extracted from CNBC. Stocks End Volatile Day with Steep Losses on Credit Market Fears By CNBC.com | 26 Jul 2007 | 05:22 PM ET CNBC.com Illustration Stocks closed sharply lower, and the Dow saw its biggest decline since the market meltdown in late February, as disappointing news from the housing industry renewed concerns about credit markets and the U.S. economy. "Nobody knows whose credit is worth what," said Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS. "Watch what happens here--if this rally rolls over and we head back to the lows, we're in trouble." The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed with a loss of 2.3% after falling as much as 449 points, or 3.3%, earlier in the session. The blue chip index remains up 8.1% year to date. The S&P 500 fell 2.3% while the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.8%. Some money managers remained optimistic, however, viewing Thursday's big move to the downside as healthy for the market. "This is just one more of the period panics that we've had in the last six months," said Barton Biggs, managing partner at Traxis Partners. "The puncture of the debt bubble is a positive development and restores some kind of sanity to the debt market. I don't think stocks are going out the window by any means at all." The sharp selloff triggered trading curbs on the NYSE prohibiting certain types of computerized index arbitrage trading. Curbs were also in effect in Tuesday's session. Thursday's slump in U.S. stocks triggered selling in international markets, particularly emerging markets. Mexico's benchmark IPC stock index ended with a 3.6% decline while Brazil's Bovespa index sank 3.8%. New home sales fell by 6.6% in June, far worse than the 1.6% decline analysts were expecting, according to a survey conducted by CNBC and Dow Jones. The median price of a new home also dropped to $237,900 from $241,000 the previous month. "We had some homebuilders report terrible numbers and the price of a barrel of oil finally got to a level where there is some shock value," said Arthur Hogan, managing director at Jefferies. Selling pressure was across the board with all 10 economic sectors tracked by S&P trading down 1.3% or more. Energy was the day's worst performing sector, falling 3.7% due to lackluster earnings from Exxon Mobil and a reversal in crude prices. Basic materials stocks were not far behind, falling 3.6%, while financial stocks closed with a loss of 2.4%. Technology and consumer staples stocks held up relatively well. "You're looking at a housing slump, credit worries and higher oil prices," said Matthew McCall, president of Penn Financial Group. "You put those three together, that's trumping better earnings right now. I really believe that this market maybe bottoms today or tomorrow, but there's going to be a great buying opportunity on this volatility in the coming week." Investors sought safety in the fixed income market and bid up Treasurys, sending yields on the benchmark 10-year bond below 4.8%. U.S. Treasurys Results from Beazer Homes [BZH 15.56 -1.48 (-8.69%) ] didn't help sentiment. The company, which is facing a deteriorating U.S. housing market and federal investigations into lending practices, posted a quarterly loss of $3.20 a share. That was significantly worse than than Wall Street estimates for a loss of 32 cents a share, according to Thomson Financial. And homebuilder DR Horton [DHI 17.16 -0.32 (-1.83%) ] posted a steep loss for its fiscal third quarter as the company recorded enormous charges to write down the value of unsold inventory and deposits on land. The company posted a loss of $823.8 million, or $2.62 a share, far worse than the loss of 35 cents a share analysts were expecting, according to Thomson Financial. New York light crude futures [US@CL.1 74.99 0.04 (+0.05%) ] hovered around $77 a barrel on supply concerns. Ford Motor [F 8.09 0.12 (+1.51%) ] surprised Wall Street with second-quarter earnings of $750 million, its first profitable quarter in two years. The company also confirmed it is exploring the sale of its Jaguar and Land Rover subsidiaries. Shares of Exxon Mobil [XOM 88.23 -4.56 (-4.91%) ] fell sharply after the oil giant posted a 1% drop in quarterly earnings, missing expectations. The company said weaker natural gas prices and production offset higher margins from production of gasoline and chemicals. Production on an oil-equivalent basis fell 1% from a year ago. Shares of Apple [AAPL 146.0 8.74 (+6.37%) ] rose following stellar results from the technology giant Wednesday. The company continued to benefit from the strong iPod sales, but also reported selling 270,000 of its new iPhones. Dow Chemical [DOW 43.45 -2.22 (-4.86%) ] added to the positive earnings picture as it beat analysts' forecasts with its second-quarter profit. And drugmaker AstraZeneca [AZN 52.3 -2.70 (-4.91%) ] raised its full-year forecast and posted a 17% rise in second-quarter adjusted earnings. In other economic news, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time fell by 2000 to 301,000. The amount of durable goods ordered in June rose by 1.4%, just shy of the 1.6% increase expected. European Stocks Close Sharply Lower European stocks suffered their biggest daily decline in more than four months on a deteriorating climate for financing takeovers and concerns about the U.S. housing market. The London FTSE-100, [FTIND 6251.2 -203.10 (-3.15%) ] Paris CAC-40 [CAC40-FR 5675.05 -162.06 (-2.78%) ] and Frankfurt DAX [DAX-XE 7508.96 -183.59 (-2.39%) ] all finished firmly lower. Among the companies reporting upbeat earnings was Royal Dutch Shell, which beat analysts' expectations due to strong refining margins canceling out slower production levels. Meanwhile shares in EADS fell 0.3% in Paris despite early gains following news second-quarter earnings fell less than expected. The Airbus parent also reported a 500 million euro ($685 million) charge for the redesign of its new Airbus passenger jet. Shares of BT led the losers on the FTSE-100 despite the telecom giant posting a 3% increase in first-quarter operating earnings and meeting expectations as CEO Ben Verwaayen told CNBC margins are being squeezed. And Spanish bank Santander beat analysts' expectations with its first-half net profit, but the positive numbers were helped by a one-off asset sale. Asia Mostly Lower Asian markets were mostly lower in the afternoon session Thursday with Japan and Australia both ending weaker. South Korea's KOSPI closed 2% down, its biggest drop in over four months. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 Average [NIKKEI 17702.09 -156.33 (-0.88%) ] fell to its lowest close in nearly two months as Advantest tumbled on lower quarterly profit, and caution ahead of Sunday's parliamentary election weighed. But Nomura Holdings and Terumo surged after they posted solid earnings. And strong digital camera sales and a weak yen covered losses at Sony's [SNE 51.36 -0.95 (-1.82%) ] computer game unit, leaving the technology giant's quarterly profit three times higher than the same quarter the previous year. South Korean shares retreated from a record to slump 2%, on worries shares such as steelmaker POSCO had gained too much, while surging oil prices hit power provider KEPCO. It was the KOSPI'sbiggest one-day percentage drop since since falling 2.7% on March 5. China's Shanghai Composite Index hit a record intraday high but pared gains by the close, as investors became wary of lofty valuations and government policy. Hong Kong blue chips and China plays rose, buoyed by Wall Street advances, as mainland insurers surged on newly issued rules allowing them to invest 15% of their assets abroad. Newcomer Tiangong International, China's top maker of high speed steel by volume, exceeded expectations by nearly doubling in its debut after a US$106 million Hong Kong initial public offering that drew heavy demand. © 2007 CNBC.com
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ed88ks Senior	17-Jul-2007 04:29        ed88ks About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Here's Dow Theory Letters' veteran Richard Russell, finally converted to the bullish camp, writing on Friday night: "My studies tell me that we're now early into the third or speculative phase of a great bull market ... After yesterday's upside surge, I thought today's performance was surprisingly good. Instead of backing off, the market was higher ... Furthermore, from a Dow Theory standpoint the new record highs in BOTH the Industrials and Transports was a HUGE PLUS in the price structure, and the Dow Averages were confirmed by a new high in the S&P. Who could ask for anything more? "The market is overbought and it seems to be staying overbought characteristic of a very powerful market. So far the stock market is not supplying investors or even traders with an advantageous place to enter. You have your choice close your eyes, clench your fists and buy 'em , or wait for a better entry point." The only slightly discordant note: Russell remains bullish, albeit "patient," on gold. Usually, equity bulls disdain gold. On the other hand, some letters acknowledge the strength of the stock market, but argue it's an unsustainable " melt-up." Recently, I wrote about the respected institutional service The Gartman Letter, whose editor, Dennis Gartman, is lovingly developing a nasty comparison to the Nikkei blow-off the late 1980s. See May 7 column Gartman still sees it that way. He wrote recently: "When shares begin to move parabolically higher only the foolhardy stand in its way. Such is the demeanor of the U.S. ... and indeed the world's ... stock market presently. This is likely to carry on into the middle of August at least. As illogical as this might sound, one can buy almost anything between now and then ... the momentum is that great and the short position is that large." How high? Gartman mentions 16,000. Gartman helpfully includes a chart of what happened after the Nikkei peaked. Gulp. But you need only look at the Nasdaq after 2000. What's that Gartman said about "the short position"? Here's more from another " melt-up" maven, Australia's gold webzine www.the-privateer.com: "At the latest figures which The Privateer has, the amount of short interest on the U.S. stock markets was running at record levels. It is a very old market adage that no market ever crashes when short interest is high. What is far more likely to happen is that the shorts are scared into bailing out (by buying) in a sudden market surge. We do not know for certain that the shorts bailing out was a contributing factor to the Dow's big rise on July 12, but we would be very surprised if it wasn't. The higher U.S. stock markets go from here, the more likely it is that the shorts will run for the exits. Shorts are "captive buyers" - they must buy to exit their positions. If the U.S. market does continue its "melt up" in coming weeks, the shorts will exit. "That would be a replay of the situation in August/September 1929 and 1987 and in January/March 2000." All of which were followed, in case you didn't get it, by massive breaks ... make that "melt-downs."   copy from briefing
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ed88ks Senior	17-Jul-2007 04:27        ed88ks About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	with the weaker $$, most of the reporting will be better, and for sure, DOW will close >14000. beware of the melt up play
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ed88ks Senior	17-Jul-2007 04:24        ed88ks About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	S&P 500 Stocks With High International Revenue Exposure Intl Sales % of Total Asian Sales % of Total Europe Sales % of Total Other % of Total Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) 100% 55% 27% 14% Qualcomm (QCOM) 87% 70% 0% 17% Texas Instruments (TXN) 87% 67% 16% 4% NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) 86% 75% 9% 1.6% Intel (INTC) 85% 60% 19% 6% Applied Materials (AMAT) 81% 70% 11% 0% Transocean (RIG) 79% 8% 12% 59% Noble Corp (NE) 73% 2% 18% 53% Coca Cola (KO) 71%* 20% 15% 15% Newmont Mining (NEM) 71% 19% 0% 5% AFLAC (AFL) 71% 71% 0% 0% Exxon Mobil (XOM) 69% 0% 0% 69% Halliburton (HAL) 68% 0% 7% 61% Waters (WAT) 68% 27% 34% 7% McDonalds (MCD) 64% 15% 35% 13% Dow Chemical (DOW) 63% 0% 36% 27% WM Wrigley (WWY) 63% 13% 0% 1% Terex Corp (TEX) 62% 0% 40% 21% PerkinElmer Inc. (PKI) 62% 5% 24% 33% 3M (MMM) 61% 27% 25% 9% Altria Group (MO) 61% 0% 40% 20% Schering-Plough (SGP) 60% 9% 42% 9% Sigma-Aldrich Corp (SIAL) 60% 0% 10% 50% Eastman Kodak (EK) 58% 18% 30% 10% Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT) 57% 0% 11% 46% Nike Inc (NKE) 56% 14% 29% 13% Molson Coors Brewing  (BUD) 55% 0% 24% 31% AON Corp (AON) 55% 6% 40% 9% Citigroup (C) 54% 45% 0% 9% *Figures may not add  up due to rounding. ** KO has 21% in bottling ops.
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7habits Member	15-Jul-2007 11:02        7habits About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Read this thread from Simon Sim. I have been keeping tab for the past few months. Very valuable insight based on economical foresight, "here says", data and analysis.  One of my must read 7 habits after a friend shared with me couple of months ago. I 've reaped small rewards from  for the past few months. http://echartbook.com/icnfeellink.asp? Disclaimer - I'm not associated with above and only contribute here for your pleasure reading only.
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ed88ks Senior	14-Jul-2007 20:23        ed88ks About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Dow will be good as the dollar weaken as most earning for DOW index stock are from oversea that will result in better earning, now we can sure go for lots of breakout buy, let pick all the huge gainer. gonna be great for contra play....   U.S. stocks to rise in second week of earnings By Kate Gibson & Polya Lesova, MarketWatch Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Jul 14, 2007 NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks will edge higher next week, continuing a rally that sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging to record highs, as earnings kicks into high-gear with11 blue chips -- including Coca-Cola Co. and Intel Corp. -- slated to report quarterly results. A weaker dollar and some key economic data, including reports on inflation and housing as well as mergers and acquisition activity, might also further fuel buying interest. "Earnings season takes off next week in earnest," said Mike Malone, trading analyst at Cowen & Co. "It should be a good week with further gains (in the market) as earnings hit expectations, which I do believe will be the case."
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