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General discussion -when to sell?
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DanielXX
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23-Jan-2007 22:12
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It's an art; there's no real rules to it. Sell a few times and you'll get the hang of it. Therefore, practise selling as you would practise a sport: do it as often as you can and the experience accumulates. |
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iPunter
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23-Jan-2007 21:59
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Geojam says... [ rule of thumb is that when u make 15-20% u can sell.] For a near-term trader, I'd say take the 10% while you still have it... :) ... bearing in mind that profits can run both ways. |
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beidou
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23-Jan-2007 21:50
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Thanks a lot to those who have responded and I really appreciate the advice and pointers given. Based on my own experience, on highsight, if I had hold on to some of the counters (Keppel, DBS, UOB- sold when the STI index hit 2600 which I thought was very high already, yet it went up further), I would have made much more. After I read Fisher's book (and also Warrent Buffet's) recently, it prompted me to re-exaime my approach whether I should follow their advice to hold on to the good stocks (like SingTel, SPH, ST Eng) for long term gain. Hence, I posted the above topic to generate some discussions and hopefully learn from other members' experience. |
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lausk22
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23-Jan-2007 21:44
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In a nutshell - that's the reason for using bull and bear to describe the market for most market players will be subject to herd instinct, be it bull run or bear raid!! |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
23-Jan-2007 21:40
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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TA is 50% art and 50% math. Some people can see trends and patterns but some people can't. That's why there are believers and non-believers. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
23-Jan-2007 21:19
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hey Fairygal, don't really get what you mean? TA is factual, not theoretical, in that it maps the price/vol/momentum etc, and gives a realistic picture. It gets 'theoretical' only if you start imagining extrapolations where none exist...which does happen to even the best traders, unfortunately (greed factor. I can personally vouch for this, and i'm only a novice. 'tuition fees'. haha.). i wouldn't decide a sell just based on RSI alone. Esp when some counters don't respond to this at all. You need to combine other factors. A note of caution: As sexy as it sounds, it is very, very difficult to be a TA purist; with the exception of singaporegal and a few others here, most use a melange of methods. Sometimes, instinct is your best guide. As iPunter cynically and rightly puts it, it's not easy to deal with the market. The odds will always be in favour of the House; as the Player, your aim is to choose the best game (ie, the best trading strat for yourself, based on your personality) to even the odds. Not turn it in your favour, 'cos that's near impossible. But too much talk is pointless, as he says. And i'm certainly not qualified to give advice. In the end, your bank account is your final measure of success. And in the end there's only one thing: follow the trend, whichever way, however way. (ipunter, singaporegal and sporeguy can guide you better on the intricacies of TA.) Final thought: the aim of playing the market is money. But money's just a tool. Always make sure you're its master and not its slave. That was some of the best advice i read. In this current climate of greed, hope it helps. :) |
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geojam
Member |
23-Jan-2007 14:55
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rule of thumb is that when u make 15-20% u can sell. |
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iPunter
Supreme |
23-Jan-2007 14:40
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Long-term investor or short-term trader, both camps are subjected to the same vagaries of the market. What makes you think that an ordinary individual can do better than the great fund managers? Or vice versa? In summary, say what you like, the market beast is not something so easy to deal with. It is too complex to tackle with human tricks like indicators and analysis. |
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Fairygal
Veteran |
23-Jan-2007 09:28
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Dear Elf, How do you decide when a counter is RSI overbought, yet prices contradict theory. Do you still sell? Based on yesterday's prices, it's .....dreamy, yet real! |
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tanglinboy
Elite |
23-Jan-2007 07:03
Yells: "hello!" |
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There's an existing thread on "When To See?" already - http://www.sharejunction.com/sharejunction/listMessage.htm?topicId=527&searchString=When |
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ed88ks
Senior |
23-Jan-2007 03:14
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well said elfinchilde, good for new traders.... |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
22-Jan-2007 23:33
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hi beidou, i think whether one decides to sell or hold also depends on whether you're an FA or TA trader. Your book appears to be based on FA, in which case, yes, holding long term (5+ years) and gradually putting in money regularly will give you a winner over the years, provided you are able to pick a good company. In this current market for instance, most of the stocks are overpriced. Safe bets are your blue chips; tho most are too high now. If you're a TA trader though, then hehe, how i personally make my sell calls: 1) When the trend reads sell (RSI overbought, A/D and chaikin dipping/topping out; most obviously, when the lag indicators start heading for a cross. price vol charts matter a lot too) 2) When i see another counter which i think has better upside than the one i'm currently holding. |
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beidou
Member |
22-Jan-2007 23:21
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Mr Philip Fisher in his book 'Common Stocks & Uncommon rofits' devoted a chapter to discuss when to sell stocks. He said, if we have selected stocks based on his 15 points advice, one should never sell the stocks you have picked. Overtime, investing in a good company will generate returns greater than if you trade and take profits. I am no guru here, I want to hear what the experts have to say. I wish to learn from your experience. I know there are many well respected gurus in this Forum. |
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