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Analogy of horse racing and raging bull market
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newmoon
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16-Jan-2007 12:58
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There are 2 types of betting-parimutuel betting and fixed odds betting Soros used to send his dealers to the races before he employed them so he could asses whether they had a knowledge of probability. (Victor Niederhoffer) |
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sohguanh
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16-Jan-2007 12:29
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If a race only has 2 horses most probably the race will be cancelled cuz there will be too many winners and club may need to top up to minimum guaranteed dividend and hence incur a huge loss. No company want to make a potentially lose money deal in this world! :) |
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newmoon
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16-Jan-2007 12:24
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Of course there were 2 horse races-Sea Biscuit against War Admiral wae a historical race made into a movie |
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ten4one
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16-Jan-2007 11:47
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Chinese New Year is also known as the Chinese Lunar New Year. The word 'Lunar' also have something to do with the word 'Lunatic'! Is it not? Now back to the horse-shit thingy : You'll never ever have an odd-on-bet in a 2-horse race - definitely it'll be cancelled due to lack of participants. It may not be a bad idea to bet against the STI b4 The Lunar New Year if there were lack of Particpants (similar environment) or even in the case of 'excessive' participations! I'd take a hint from the forth-coming Budget Speech as a guide to 'bet' if I were you. Cheers! |
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newmoon
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16-Jan-2007 11:22
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A raging bull market is like an odds on favourite in a 2 horse race. Being a contrarian is almost suicidal unless the favourite stumbles before the finishing post. Betting against the STI before the CNY could be suicidal. |
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