| Latest Forum Topics / Others |
 Post Reply
|
|
Confessions of a FA purist??
|
|
|
IreneL
Senior |
03-Dec-2006 12:18
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Many thanks to both shplayer and iPunter. Shplayer : Hope your next FA posting on a good stock wouldnt affect its share price that much while I am away from Dec 10-16! Regards |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
iPunter
Supreme |
03-Dec-2006 11:07
|
|
x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
IreneL, thnkx for the compliment. :) Anyway, whatever one's view of the market is, be it TA/FA/GA(Gutfeel Analysis), it is of utmost importance to always, always and forever remember that the stockmarket is really not the place to get rich fast. The stock market is an animal who has its own merciless character and it doesn't care a bit whether you lose your fortune or your life while you play with it. It is strictly just an animal. The best we can do is be defensive and don't do things that let this animal bite us in a nasty way. The only way to ensure this is to play within your means to lose the whole stake when your calculations are wrong. And our calculations can be frequently wrong. Take care. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
|
|
|
shplayer
Elite |
03-Dec-2006 10:52
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
ItreneL, I'm just too lazy to pen an article like what singaporegal has done. My FA strategies differ from counter to counter......depending on many factors (financial, industry trends, management, indicators like NTA, PE, yield, cashflow, margins ...and some unexplanable 'gut feel'). Like in TA, not all investments turn out profitable. However, perhaps what I can do is, from time to time, post more examples like I did for SLL and Armstrong. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
IreneL
Senior |
01-Dec-2006 09:19
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Shplayer Many thanks for sharing. Totally agree with singaporegal about your FA knowledge. And I agree too that you should write an article on it. ten4one & iPunter ten4one - though I agree with your analogy of emotions being "dont want to get hitched or tied-down..." emotions doesnt come into the picture when its time to take profit - certainly it doesnt apply where I am concern. My legal training/experience ticks in when one of my counters is moving northwards! iPunter Seems you understand human sentiments very well and I cannot agree more with what you views. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
iPunter
Supreme |
01-Dec-2006 08:43
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
(nodding head)... that bit of advice is so very precious! Thanks ten4one! :) Wish you best. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
|
|
|
ten4one
Master |
01-Dec-2006 08:14
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
A good trader must always plan ahead before commiting a transaction. He weighs the pro&con of each and every trades and then set the plus&minus targets. Once the target is hit, he takes action and exits a trade. This is just one of the qualities a Trader must have....or else quit trading! Cheers! The bottomline is "IF YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE, DON'T TRADE"! |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
iPunter
Supreme |
01-Dec-2006 00:07
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
In the real world, the 'ability' to cut losses is so very difficult to execute. Unlike robots or automatic trading programs, humans have that extra intangible humane touch which robotic mechanisms lack. Herein lies the root of human folly. It's the sentimentality behind human actions that is the cause all kinds of problems, including not least in the stock market. Our money is ours. No sensible human can easily part with our precious money without emotion. To relinquish our money 'just like that' is not part of the hard-wired characteristic of the human heart. So how can cutting loss be so easily accomplished, notwithstanding the intellectual acknowledgement one may have that that is the best thing one must do? In the stock market, if we lose big, we ourselves are to blame and not the market. But that is something not so easy to agree with. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
ten4one
Master |
30-Nov-2006 23:35
|
|
x 0
x 1 Alert Admin |
Hi IreneL, Once you get emotional, your mind tends to become bias and blur your sight - that's why love is blind and lovers cannot see! Emotion is not about your inability to cut losses, it also blind your vision of taking profits. My point is if you don't want to get hitched or tie-down, why not leave sooner and move on and avoid all the 'problems' later? Of course you won't do it to someone you want for your better-half! cheers and don't take it to heart. rgds. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
|
|
|
singaporegal
Supreme |
30-Nov-2006 22:42
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
hi shplayer, you should really contribute an article to SJ. Your FA knowledge is really good. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
shplayer
Elite |
30-Nov-2006 16:51
|
|
x 4
x 0 Alert Admin |
IreneL, How do I ascertain 20% capital appreciation??? No hard and fast rule. Just hard work in anaylsing. Perhaps I can give you a couple of examples. Stamford Land Company was trading about 30 cts when I posted the thread (see Stamford Land - Time for Rerating?) on 24 Oct 2006. NTA is 42cts. Hotel business in Australia and NZ are doing well....economies in both countries are doing well. Chmn said in annual report that FY2007 will be far better than 2006 cos of property development for high class apartments (Stamford Marque) in Sydney. Aussie Accountancy laws requires revenues/profit for property development to be booked only upon project completion. Expected completion date is Nov 2006.=> 3Q 2007 (31 Dec 06) will reflect this. 50+ of 80+ units have been sold. More developments coming.....Apt in Auckland and another office/retail/residence at The ROCKs will follow. From this info, this counter is undervalued and the potential earnings for FY07 will be good. I think it has a good chance to appreciate >20%.......today, its trading at 36cts. Still vested. Armstrong Begining 2005, I poured thru the financials and annual report. From FY 2004 results, it was trading at PE<10. (Price at that time was about 13.5cts) NTA was about 12.5cts. The FY2004 result also accounted for a one time writedown and disposal of their loss making metal stamping business. Co. was expanding capacity in China, Thailand and Malaysia. My estimate of additional revenues from capacity expansion was about 25 - 30 %. ...plus FY 2005 will not have the burden of the writedown (which impacted bottomline by about 20-25% in 2004). Beginning 2006, I unloaded at 18 - 19 cts. Of the above examples, SLL was an investment due to undervaluation and potential earning upswing. Armstrong was investment cos there was growth potential from expansion and the Co.cleaned up their loss making business. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
IreneL
Senior |
30-Nov-2006 15:02
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Hi singaporegal Many thanks for your message. Hi iPunter On the contrary I have had no "feelings" for any of the stocks I've bought or holding. Emotions to me was an inability to cut losses if you will. But then we all grow up in this forum dont we? Hi ten4one You cannot be serious about dumping your girlfriend/boyfriend after having your fun, are you? |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
iPunter
Supreme |
30-Nov-2006 09:30
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Fun? Hey it's no fun, man! The stress of an open position is undescribable! :) |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
|
|
|
ten4one
Master |
30-Nov-2006 09:27
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Totally agree. Never never never fall in love with your stocks. Just treat them like your girl/boy friend that you've no intention to get hitched - dump her/him after you've your funs and go for the next one! Cheers! |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
hohokit
Veteran |
29-Nov-2006 22:48
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Don't fall in love with your share it is only for trading to make money. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
iPunter
Supreme |
29-Nov-2006 22:44
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Hi ireneL, I am not refering to any human, but just speaking about the stock market. People who are good and loyal in the real world tend to treat their stocks the same way - They feel bad, paisay or guilty to dump a good 'stock' and they easily fall in love with the stock in their hands, and refuse to 'let go'. They sort of pity 'the poor stock' if they dump them away so mercilessly. Now that's one aspect of what emotion is about. ---------------- |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
uc2028
Member |
29-Nov-2006 22:32
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
I feel that if you're trading the TA way, you shouldn't have the FA mindset... since the FA mindset requires you to hold on to a stock long long... If you use TA method, should cut loss. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
singaporegal
Supreme |
29-Nov-2006 21:37
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Hi IreneL, Emotions are always every trader's biggest problem. That's one advantage of using a rule-based trading technique. At least you have some guideline to follow. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
IreneL
Senior |
29-Nov-2006 19:17
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Hi shplayer How or what are the factors do you take into account to arrive at the minimum 20% appreciation (which I assume is meant capital appreciation) and 5% divident yield for each stock. I am no FA expert nor anywhere close to it, so for me, before buying into a company's stock I now look at its business as well as evaluate analyst's reports. There are times when emotions get the better of me, and I end up losing $$$!. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
iPunter
Supreme |
29-Nov-2006 18:11
|
|
x 1
x 1 Alert Admin |
Use FA to choose your stock, Use TA to time your in and out points. FA & TA are good buddies who work hand in hand. ---------------------------------- Always Trade With Care |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
shplayer
Elite |
29-Nov-2006 17:49
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
uc2028 Not sure...have not done TA long enough. But, TA is usually short term (<1mth) and returns is usually less (up to 10%). So, for a fixed amount of fund, say you make 8 forays a year and ave return of 4%, your total return is 32%. In FA, the gestation period is longer....I hold can stocks for years.....that is why div yield is a factor for my investment. There have been some counters, after receiving dividents, capital reduction, etc...the stock is free. In my evaluation, I usually have to see a possible minimum of 20% appreciation and 5% div yield before I commit. However, it dosen't always work. :-) |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |