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To sell, Hold or Double Up ... ???
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rogue_trader
Master |
12-Nov-2006 23:25
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At the end of Sept, this counter was at a low of $0.435 before it was "played" up. But this time front, (in my own opinions) I think it will go for a "new" low then becomes "babysitter" mode for quite a while. Not an inducement to buy or sell. |
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IreneL
Senior |
12-Nov-2006 17:56
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Hi tabbykat Thanks for the tip-off on Hengxin. |
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tabbykat
Member |
12-Nov-2006 17:15
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Hi Irene, Jiutian is principally engaged in the manufacture and production of methanol, dimethylformamide ("DMF") and methylamine. The Group is also engaged in the processing and sale of consumable carbon dioxide and oxygen. Its share price has soared from 60cents 3/4wks ago to 95cts last week. I believe the next China play big boys will engage in is Hengxin. Keep a close watch. |
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IreneL
Senior |
12-Nov-2006 13:40
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Hi rogue-trader Many thanks for the TA info. Will have to look out for Hengxin's price uptrend which I hope is not too far away. |
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IreneL
Senior |
12-Nov-2006 13:39
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Hi tabbykat Sorry you lost $3000/- in 3 days. At least my loss of slightly more than $3000/- over Asia Tiger took a little longer. And yes, its real heartache. But the way, what business is Jiutian in? |
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tabbykat
Member |
12-Nov-2006 07:48
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Thanks rougetrader, This comment is very useful to me. will continue monitoring. |
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rogue_trader
Master |
12-Nov-2006 00:20
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Hengxin TA A/D Lines & Chaikin: Flat. Bollinger Bands: Might be downtrending, wait for a few more days to confirm. Stochastic: Downtrending and no sign of trend reversal. |
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iPunter
Supreme |
11-Nov-2006 18:44
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Hi Billywows, I like your strategy. It sounds to me like "small fish ride piggyback on big fish" ! So the 'trick' , I suppose is to look out for when the big fish are boarding the rocket! Maybe TA is the key??? :) ------------- Trade With Care |
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tabbykat
Member |
11-Nov-2006 18:12
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Hi Irene, I have the intention to buy this counter (Hengxin) next week based on its fundamental. I think it will soar like Jiutian when the big boys decide to have their play on this counter. I will buy and hold for a few weeks. I guess downside is limited. TA gurus, esp sporegal, please comment. Cheers. P.S. I faced similar situation last week with Magnum. Its a real heartache. Lost $3000 in three days. |
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billywows
Elite |
11-Nov-2006 18:08
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Before we reach the decision to 'Sell, Hold or Double up", its the BUY decision first. Read somewhere again: "Buy before the herd!" .... In short, spot a good-valued bargain and buy it before the big institutions see it and load up to push the price up for you. We are small fishes and we need the Big Sharks to create the waves for us to swim faster. And do be fast to exit or we may end up being eaten (burnt)! This way, you always have a margin of safety in your price. It's darn too risky to chase a stock when its rising. As to which stock to spot early, this is what SJ is all about. But it's still one's responsibility and money to do one's own homeworks again to verify before buying. (PS: Never buy on tips as this is no such things as easy money.) Trade with care ya! Shiok! |
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IreneL
Senior |
11-Nov-2006 16:52
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I face this situation right now with Hengxin. Bought it at 0.4875 (20K lots) as I had confidence in its business. Its down to 0.435. Funny enough, immediately after I bought the price nosedived to its current value. I can only surmise that, like I said before, its the big boys' doing. I am very sure of the smile on my broker's face! |
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iPunter
Supreme |
11-Nov-2006 16:29
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Stock goes up, quickly buy. Then stock goes down, felt scared, quickly sell. After selling, stock goes back up again. Didn't want to miss it, so buy back again. You know what? Yea, the stupid stock went down again, so of course cannot tahan, so dump it again. Wah... like that the broker will be smiling all the way! ------------- Trade With Care |
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maxsyn
Veteran |
11-Nov-2006 16:18
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buy at low, tot good price, it went down further, panic so cut loss. Sell at high, tot good price, quickly sell, it went up further, bang heart. Sigh.... |
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IreneL
Senior |
10-Nov-2006 13:32
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Hahaha....... many thanks for the compliments. Have a great weekend. |
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iPunter
Supreme |
10-Nov-2006 12:32
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In another 20 years' time it will the 'Big Girls' who'll decide to do the dumping at a mere whim!!! ...Just Kidding. ;) ------------- Trade With Care |
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IreneL
Senior |
10-Nov-2006 12:04
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Yes, DanielXX, you have given a nice discourse as iPunter has indicated. Whilst I totally agreed with that, we must not forget the doings of big boys like institutional buyers who have no qualms about dumping their interest (undeniably huge) at the slightest chance. And suffer the retail investors. |
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iPunter
Supreme |
09-Nov-2006 20:01
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Nice discourse. :) ------------- Trade With Care |
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DanielXX
Member |
09-Nov-2006 19:44
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From my blog: About selling Looking through the topics I have discussed, the selling process is the one with the most parts to it (Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3), together with Investing Philosophy. To me, selling is probably the most important in the three-step process Buy-Hold-Sell; especially for me, because I recognise that my personality conditions me to be able to buy with confidence, hold with patience but unable to sell with grace. I suspect that many people face this problem too. That is why I have to constantly remind myself of reasons why I should not sell, while assiduously searching for reasons why I should. It may shock some fundamentalists but one of the factors that I look at nowadays when considering reasons for selling a stock is the price trend. As Warren Buffett goes: when the price of the stock goes down, it should become more attractive and one should buy more. Provided, of course, that the caveat, that the fundamentals of the underlying business haven't changed, is true. Many people miss out this proviso of Buffett's statement. The tendency to view a stock with rose-tinted lenses when one holds it in his portfolio is all-too-human, to the extent that one can be prone to intellectualisation (ie. finding reasons not to sell) in the face of a steadily falling stock price. Yet, investing is all about dichotomies. A high PE can mean dangerous valuation or an indication of a strong defensible business model; portfolio diversification can be good or bad since it means reduced returns but also reduced risk (though for academicians it seems to be unaffected return and reduced unsystematic risk); raising of interest rates can be good or bad because it respectively signifies a booming economy (which leads to rising inflation that must be controlled) and a crimping of liquidity which will squeeze asset prices. So it is with falling stock prices: it can either mean the stock is a better buy than before because of an improvement in the relative valuation/fundamentals ratio, or it can hint at non-public information that the fundamentals have declined, which has driven down stock prices. So which is driving which? That is the chicken-and-egg problem which has no easy solution. Actually if one think about it, considering stock price as one of the factors in one's selling decision is not illogical at all. After all, firstly, the stock price is what determines our gains/losses. How can it not be a factor? Secondly, it rises and falls according to the fortunes of the business --- long-term. How certain is one about how far the long-term is? It could be now, and the price is factoring in the declining fundamentals right now. Thirdly --- and this is one for the academicians --- stock price volatility is how they determine beta, the market risk of a particular stock. Supposing that near-term price becomes volatile, surely that means the near-term risk has increased? (In fact, I may go one step further and qualitatively claim that beta as a measure of market risk should be weighted more towards near-term price volatility rather than over the long-term ie. near-term price volatility should be more important). Fourthly, isn't the old adages "never catch a falling knife" and "buy on the way up" examples of correlating the buy/sell process with price trends? People don't seem to have trouble following that. Obviously, deciding whether to sell when stock price declines is a case of judgment. If I can suggest some factors that will influence it, they are as follows: - Blue-chip or small-cap (the former has a greater assurance of business fundamentals, hence are more likely to rebound) - One's degree of confidence in his understanding of the company's business - Opportunity costs (maybe it's a chance to exit and buy into that stock you've been eyeing in your watchlist all along?) - The risks. The risk aspect of a stock is always underestimated because the general tendency is to look at the upside. Instead, risks should be what's important to understand when the price is falling, because they are likely to be the ones causing the decline - The weightage of the stock in question in one's portfolio. It's a case of managing your risk exposure. - Technical factors eg. selling on high or low volume? Support levels broken? It is indeed walking a tightrope, because making such sell decisions is a process of balancing the two parts of the dichotomy of the meaning of price action. For me, I myself had a recent episode where I was faced with a 10% decline in the price of a stock I was heavily into. It was a decline on above-average volume. Considering the fundamental risk factors and the fact that there was no clear reason for its decline --- the greatest danger, because there is no way to quantify any potential downside --- I decided to dispose of part of it although initially I had bought into it on high hopes of it being a multi-bagger (I shall not reveal the name here lest I am accused of pushing stocks). Frankly, it is as much a process of thought clarification as well as risk management. I have found that it aids one in being more objective in his thought processes surrounding the stock once he sells part of it. It helped, of course, that I had several other targets and considered opportunity costs of waiting for price stabilisation to be too high. |
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billywows
Elite |
09-Nov-2006 18:41
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No problem, IreneL .... We are all sharing to expand investing knowledge here. |
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IreneL
Senior |
09-Nov-2006 16:47
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Hi billywows Many thanks for sharing this article. I've had many challenges these past few months buying shares that went eventually went belly-up. This article has somewhat cheer me up. Thanks again. Appreciate it. |
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