| Latest Forum Topics / Others |
 Post Reply
|
|
Recession in US Coming???
|
||
|
ten4one
Master |
08-Sep-2006 13:09
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Recession in the US ? I doubt so....slowdown more likely and not to the extend of a recession (unless there's another War and a runaway inflation)! The new FED Chairman, Mr B2 will not allow that to happen. His Predecessors had all skillfully diverted a recession and I'm sure he and his Advisors can do it too. Cheers!!!! | |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
teeth53
Supreme |
08-Sep-2006 00:20
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Even if recession is coming.... buying is even cheaper lohh...., so buy / sell have problem or not !!!, have some kopi $$$, make some and provide some for other too. | |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
|
||
|
teeth53
Supreme |
08-Sep-2006 00:16
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Hi Savvysamyeo,. U oredi mentioned in ur this forum, should not be a problem picking up some good stock from what U has mentioned. one thing is buy ipo water stock lohh.......is cheap "One of the great emphasis is on clean environmental concerns and the building of newer eco friendly infrastructures". Yours quot..This one get u going for some time to come and is coming...... "AKA DATANG" | |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
savvysamyeo
Member |
07-Sep-2006 21:25
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Talking about a World recession; maybe people will find this line of thoughts interesting - doubtless China will assume great importance as a major engine of economic growth in the near future. Even if US stumbles performing funds will likely place more focus on China's growth. It is important to note that Pres. Hu Jin Tao has announced earlier this year that more economic distribution will go towards developing the domestic inlands of China to mitigate the disparities between the coastal and inland prosperities. One of the great emphasis is on clean environmental concerns and the building of newer eco friendly infrastructures. The recent storm that ravaged S. China has in fact imparted impetous towards these needs. These are realities for the immediate futures. I think our S'pore Chinese listings will reflect these Chinese economic activities. I will be grateful for any savant(s )to advise me on the choices to pick. |
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
billywows
Elite |
07-Sep-2006 19:26
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
|
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
|
||
|
billywows
Elite |
29-Aug-2006 21:44
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Oil price drops today .... But, winter is coming, oil will go up then. --------------------- |
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
tanglinboy
Elite |
29-Aug-2006 15:54
Yells: "hello!" |
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Dun worry... oil price fell last night! Unlikely to hit US$100 lah.... |
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
29-Aug-2006 10:57
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
US$100 oil sure will cause a recession. | |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
|
||
|
ten4one
Master |
29-Aug-2006 10:38
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
The drop of housing sales maybe due to over-built by Developers speculating a US strong economy recovery which didn't happen - it had happen in every part of the developed world. It may cause some hardships in some sectors of the economy. The main concern is not Housing. It is rising FUEL PRICES that will kill the US economy and bring it down to its knee. Cheers!!!! |
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
28-Aug-2006 22:16
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
The odds of a U.S. recession next year rose to at least 40% after a report last week showed a bigger-than-expected drop in sales of existing homes, according to David Rosenberg, chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York. Sales of new homes also fell more than economists forecast, a separate report showed. | |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
Livermore
Master |
27-Aug-2006 10:24
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Real Estate: About to Get Worse It?s looking like 1990 all over again?
1990 was the last time homes were unaffordable. The confidence of homebuilders was at a record low (and about to go lower). And the Home prices fell hard. Nationwide, new home prices fell from around $200,000 in 1990 to around $175,000 by 1992 (in inflation-adjusted terms).
By 1993, home prices were affordable once again. Home buyers slowly crept back into the market. Prices crept higher, and they didn?t surpass the 1990 highs for over a decade (in inflation-adjusted terms).
Over a dozen years have passed since new home prices bottomed back then? enough time for people to forget real estate is not always a sure thing. Just ask the Japanese how bad it can get? they just lived through 16 straight years of falling home prices.
For the first time since 1990, homes are once again unaffordable, as the chart below shows.
Also, homebuilder confidence has been falling for seven straight months, just like we saw in 1990. Homebuilder confidence is now down to its lowest level since February 1991, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) survey, shown in the chart below in blue.
The homebuilders have been particularly accurate in gauging the market in the past?
Builders were particularly optimistic in 1999, and home prices rose in the following years. Builders maintained their enthusiasm, and prices continued to rise through 2005. Now the homebuilders are hanging their heads. It signals trouble.
Let me step back here for a minute and give you some background? Just because we?re negative on real estate now, don?t think we?re always this way. We simply watch the numbers, like the ones shown above, and draw our conclusions.
In late 2001, the numbers were good? builders were optimistic and housing was affordable. Based on these factors (and many more), I wrote that real estate was cheap in my True Wealth newsletter, and I recommended loading up on real estate plays. Subscribers made triple-digit returns on stocks like homebuilders and REITs.
Back then, the average family could afford the average home. Now they can?t. Back then, builders were optimistic. Now, builders are pessimistic? and have become more pessimistic for seven months in a row, a sign of a weak market.
We?re setting up for a repeat of 1990. Back then, new home prices nationwide fell by double-digits, percentage-wise, over two or three years. Speculators got crushed.
Again, the last time around, prices peaked around 1990. It took a decade for new home prices to get back to 1990 levels (in inflation-adjusted terms).
We could see the same today? a fall in prices for a couple years? and then a slow rise again, as people who got burned are slower to touch the fire.
So if you?re looking to buy real estate, but don?t have the money now? there?s no hurry. If we see a repeat of 1990, you may be able to buy cheaper two years from now.
And if you?re overextended in real estate, but you?re holding out for your price, you?re doing the wrong thing. Get out now. The cost of carrying that real estate will eat you alive.
If you?re overextended in real estate, think about this: What if real estate prices fall for two or three years instead of rising as you hope? Then you?ll lose even more money. You?ll have wasted three years paying interest, and then you?ll take a loss on the property.
It?s better to take a small loss now than wait and potentially take a bigger loss in a few years, while paying interest along the way.
DailyWealth isn?t meant to be a pessimistic letter. I was wildly optimistic on real estate just five years ago. We are neither pessimists nor optimists. We?re realists, looking for opportunity, wherever on the globe it might be.
Right now, the great opportunity is gone in It will likely be this way for a couple of years. Invest accordingly.
|
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
Livermore
Master |
27-Aug-2006 10:21
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
It was mentioned about a global slowdown predicted by George Soros when he was in Singapore last year. Soros predicted consumption growth tailing off in the wake of a housing bust.The trouble according to Soros is the inability of the American consumer to borrow more. The
The latest US data has shown that home resales has dropped in July to lowest level since 2004. For 5 years running, home sales had hit record highs as low mortgage rates lured buyers.But the housing sector has lost steam this year as mortgage rates have gone up and would be buyers have grown cautious amid high energy prices and a slowing economy. If home prices and sales were to crash, that could spell big trouble for the economy.
With the housing market slowdown, the US Fed cannot raise interest rate further. That is why oil price must not go up further. If oil price continues to go up, inflation will go up. If US Fed raises interest rate to fight inflation, the housing market could possibly crash. When that happens, US consumer spending will suffer which will in turn affect the US economy as 2/3 of the economy depends on consumers. This could result in a "hard landing" for the US economy.
Then George Soros prediction will come true............
|
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
|
||
|
ten4one
Master |
27-Aug-2006 08:39
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
The Housing bubble could be a concern in the US, but surely it is not a certainty that the bubble will burst and hurt the US economy. The FED will surely would not allow that to happen! This problem has happened many times in the US and each and everytime the US economy survived and became stronger. In fact, the accounts and trades deficits are the main concerns in the US now! It is still unsolved for so many years!!!!! | |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
Livermore
Master |
27-Aug-2006 00:55
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
George Soros had already predicted a global recession in 2007 when he was in Singapore last year. The reason he gave is exactly what is happening now - US housing market slow down | |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
billywows
Elite |
26-Aug-2006 23:56
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Have posted this before in 'Dow' forum ... thought I bring this article out in case you guys missed it cos its the most read article in Market Watch. Quite scary if US does go into a recession. You heard it first here on Share Junction! --------------- Writing on his blog Wednesday, Roubini repeated his call that the U.S. would be in recession in 2007, arguing that the collapse of housing would bring down the rest of the economy. Read more.
Roubini wrote after the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday that sales of existing homes fell 4.1% in July, while inventories soared to a 13-year high and prices flattened out on a year-over-year basis. See full story.
 "This is the biggest housing slump in the last four or five decades: every housing indicator is in free fall, including now housing prices," Roubini said. The decline in investment in the housing sector will exceed the drop in investment when the Nasdaq collapsed in 2000 and 2001, he said.
And the impact of the bursting of the bubble will affect every household in America, not just the few people who owned significant shares in technology companies during the dot-com boom, he said. Prices are falling even in the Midwest, which never experienced a bubble, "a scary signal" of how much pain the drop in household wealth could cause.
Roubini is a professor of economics at New York University and was a senior economist in the White House and the Treasury Department in the late 1990s. His firm focuses largely on global macroeconomics.
While many economists share Roubini's concerns about imbalances in the global economy and in the U.S. housing sector, he stands nearly alone in predicting a recession next year.
Fed watcher Tim Duy called Roubini the "the current archetypical Eeyore," responding to a comment Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher made last week in referring to economic pessimists as "Eeyores," after Winnie the Pooh's grumpy friend.
"By itself this slump is enough to trigger a U.S. recession: its effects on real residential investment, wealth and consumption, and employment will be more severe than the tech bust that triggered the 2001 recession," Roubini said.
Housing has accounted, directly and indirectly, for about 30% of employment growth during this expansion, including employment in retail and in manufacturing producing consumer goods, he said.
In the past year, consumers spent about $200 billion of the money they pulled out of their home equity, he estimated. Already, sales of consumer durables such as cars and furniture have weakened.
"As the housing sector slumps, the job and income and wage losses in housing will percolate throughout the economy," Roubini said.
Consumers also face high energy prices, higher interest rates, stagnant wages, negative savings and high debt levels, he noted.
"This is the tipping point for the U.S. consumer and the effects will be ugly," he said. "Expect the great recession of 2007 to be much nastier, deeper and more protracted than the 2001 recession."
He also sees many of the same warning signs in other economies, including some in Europe.
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch. |
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||