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IreneL
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29-Nov-2006 17:06
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Hi virgoan Thru email from my broker at UOBKayHian. Here's an extract : Regional Morning Notes Tuesday, 28 November 2006 Please see important notice on last page Page 2 of 4 Technology Holiday season off to a good start Holiday season off to a good start. More than 140m shoppers hit the stores
on Black Friday weekend according to the National Retail Federation?s (NRF)
2006 Black Friday Weekend Survey. Consumers spent an average of
US$360.15*, up 18.9% yoy. The most popular items are electronics and toys
with retailers offering big bargains on high definition TVs, life-sized robots, MP3
players and video game consoles. More consumers are also shopping online.
47.1% of consumers plan to shop online during this holiday season according
NRF, up from 36% three years ago.
In another survey, ShopperTrak Corporation?s National Retail Sales Estimate
reported preliminary sales estimate of US$8,955m for Black Friday (the day after
Thanksgiving), a healthy increase of 6.0% yoy. This is remarkable given that
Black Friday was the highest sales day in 2005. The impressive sales
performance shows that consumers are willing to spend as recent decline in
energy costs left consumers with more disposal income. on Black Friday weekend according to the National Retail Federation?s (NRF) 2006 Black Friday Weekend Survey. Consumers spent an average of US$360.15*, up 18.9% yoy. The most popular items are electronics and toys with retailers offering big bargains on high definition TVs, life-sized robots, MP3 players and video game consoles. More consumers are also shopping online. 47.1% of consumers plan to shop online during this holiday season according NRF, up from 36% three years ago. In another survey, ShopperTrak Corporation?s National Retail Sales Estimate reported preliminary sales estimate of US$8,955m for Black Friday (the day after Thanksgiving), a healthy increase of 6.0% yoy. This is remarkable given that Black Friday was the highest sales day in 2005. The impressive sales performance shows that consumers are willing to spend as recent decline in energy costs left consumers with more disposal income. M&A activities create buzz. Private equity firm Carlyle Group is said to be in
talks to acquire Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASE) for US$5.5b.
Taiwan-based ASE is the world's largest test and assembly house. Chairman
and CEO Jason Chang has agreed to sell his 18.4% stake to a consortium led
by Carlyle. ASE would not be governed by Taiwan rules, which severely restrict
technology investment in China, by registering as a foreign company and listing
on a foreign stock exchange such as Hong Kong or Singapore.
ASE is valued at PE of 10.8x for FY06 and 13.1x for FY07 based on Carlyle
Group?s offer of NT39 (consensus EPS is NT3.62 for FY06 and NT2.97 for
FY07) and P/B of 2.6x. The offer price represents a 9.9% premium to last
Friday?s closing price of NT35.50. talks to acquire Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASE) for US$5.5b. Taiwan-based ASE is the world's largest test and assembly house. Chairman and CEO Jason Chang has agreed to sell his 18.4% stake to a consortium led by Carlyle. ASE would not be governed by Taiwan rules, which severely restrict technology investment in China, by registering as a foreign company and listing on a foreign stock exchange such as Hong Kong or Singapore. ASE is valued at PE of 10.8x for FY06 and 13.1x for FY07 based on Carlyle Group?s offer of NT39 (consensus EPS is NT3.62 for FY06 and NT2.97 for FY07) and P/B of 2.6x. The offer price represents a 9.9% premium to last Friday?s closing price of NT35.50. Technology sector offers value. The profile for the Technology sector has
changed and taken on the likeness of value stocks. For example, many stocks
in the Assembly & Test cluster trades at single-digit PEs and P/B ratio of
between 1x to 2x. This is much lower than average FY06 PE of 15.5x and P/B
of 2.0x for the Strait Times Industrial index.
We expect the two pieces of news mentioned above to have a positive impact
on share price for Technology stocks listed in Singapore. In particular, Global
Testing is most under-valued and is a potential take-over target.
* Spending data includes Thursday, Friday, Saturday and projected spending for
Sunday. changed and taken on the likeness of value stocks. For example, many stocks in the Assembly & Test cluster trades at single-digit PEs and P/B ratio of between 1x to 2x. This is much lower than average FY06 PE of 15.5x and P/B of 2.0x for the Strait Times Industrial index. We expect the two pieces of news mentioned above to have a positive impact on share price for Technology stocks listed in Singapore. In particular, Global Testing is most under-valued and is a potential take-over target. * Spending data includes Thursday, Friday, Saturday and projected spending for Sunday. SINGAPORE TECHNOLOGY OVERWEIGHT United Test & Assembly Center (UTAC SP) BUY Current Price: S$0.755 Target Price: S$1.08 Memory Devices (MEMD SP) BUY Current Price: S$0.335 Target Price: S$0.40 Chartered Semicon (CSM SP) BUY Current Price: S$1.40 Target Price: S$1.64 Global Testing (GTC SP) BUY Current Price: S$0.26 Target Price: S$0.44 Jurong Tech (JTL SP) BUY Current Price: S$1.21 Target Price: S$1.80 Venture Corp (VMS SP) BUY Current Price: S$14.10 Target Price: S$15.80 Unisteel Tech (USTL SP) BUY Current Price: S$2.26 Target Price: S$2.63 Miyoshi Precision (MIYO SP) BUY Current Price: S$0.22 Target Price: S$0.26 Jonathan Koh �� (65) 6539 1026
jonathankoh@uobkayhian.com jonathankoh@uobkayhian.com Regional Morning Notes Tuesday, 28 November 2006 Please see important notice on last page Page 3 of 4 Comparative Valuation - Assembly & Test (source: Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian) (source: Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian)Market Cap Price Target PE (x) Historical Rating (US$m) 27-Nov-06 Price (Actual=T) (T+1) (T+2) P/B Div Yield ROE 27-Nov-06 Price (Actual=T) (T+1) (T+2) P/B Div Yield ROEAmkor Technology Not Rated 1,774.0 9.96 - 10.3 10.5 10.1 5.1 0.0 (46.1) Ardentec Corp Not Rated 319.0 28.10 - 11.6 9.9 8.4 2.1 2.5 19.3 ASE Group Not Rated 5,307.8 37.95 - n.a. 9.6 9.9 3.5 0.0 (9.5) ASE Test Not Rated 1,090.0 10.89 - 7.4 9.6 11.3 1.4 0.0 (6.1) Global Testing BUY 176.1 0.26 S$0.44 7.9 8.5 7.0 0.9 0.0 16.3
Hana Microelectronics Not Rated 640.1 28.25 - 10.0 10.3 9.5 2.3 5.0 24.3
King Yuan Electronics Not Rated 954.6 28.65 - 20.5 10.3 9.6 1.8 2.3 9.1
Malaysian Pacific Industries SELL 594.7 10.30 - 14.7 17.0 14.4 3.0 3.8 15.8
Siliconware Precision Not Rated 4,351.2 51.30 - 17.0 11.1 10.7 3.2 3.0 22.2
STATS ChipPAC HOLD 1,599.7 1.24 - 16.0 22.5 17.6 2.5 0.0 (2.3)
Unisem Not Rated 195.5 1.59 - 10.4 11.4 10.7 1.1 6.3 3.5
United Test & Assembly BUY 727.1 0.76 S$1.08 9.8 9.9 8.2 1.5 0.0 10.6
Winstek Semicon Not Rated 199.5 24.90 - 21.4 n.a. n.a. 1.9 2.7 9.0 Hana Microelectronics Not Rated 640.1 28.25 - 10.0 10.3 9.5 2.3 5.0 24.3 King Yuan Electronics Not Rated 954.6 28.65 - 20.5 10.3 9.6 1.8 2.3 9.1 Malaysian Pacific Industries SELL 594.7 10.30 - 14.7 17.0 14.4 3.0 3.8 15.8
Siliconware Precision Not Rated 4,351.2 51.30 - 17.0 11.1 10.7 3.2 3.0 22.2
STATS ChipPAC HOLD 1,599.7 1.24 - 16.0 22.5 17.6 2.5 0.0 (2.3)
Unisem Not Rated 195.5 1.59 - 10.4 11.4 10.7 1.1 6.3 3.5
United Test & Assembly BUY 727.1 0.76 S$1.08 9.8 9.9 8.2 1.5 0.0 10.6
Winstek Semicon Not Rated 199.5 24.90 - 21.4 n.a. n.a. 1.9 2.7 9.0 Siliconware Precision Not Rated 4,351.2 51.30 - 17.0 11.1 10.7 3.2 3.0 22.2 STATS ChipPAC HOLD 1,599.7 1.24 - 16.0 22.5 17.6 2.5 0.0 (2.3)
Unisem Not Rated 195.5 1.59 - 10.4 11.4 10.7 1.1 6.3 3.5
United Test & Assembly BUY 727.1 0.76 S$1.08 9.8 9.9 8.2 1.5 0.0 10.6
Winstek Semicon Not Rated 199.5 24.90 - 21.4 n.a. n.a. 1.9 2.7 9.0 Unisem Not Rated 195.5 1.59 - 10.4 11.4 10.7 1.1 6.3 3.5 United Test & Assembly BUY 727.1 0.76 S$1.08 9.8 9.9 8.2 1.5 0.0 10.6
Winstek Semicon Not Rated 199.5 24.90 - 21.4 n.a. n.a. 1.9 2.7 9.0 Winstek Semicon Not Rated 199.5 24.90 - 21.4 n.a. n.a. 1.9 2.7 9.0 Average 13.1 11.7 10.6 2.3 2.0 5.1 |
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virgoan
Member |
29-Nov-2006 08:59
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Hi Cashiertan, singaporegal Tks for your advice on JurTech. Yesterday Nokia cuts their profit target due to slower 2007 growth. Will it affect Motorola and then Jurtech target price? |
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virgoan
Member |
29-Nov-2006 08:54
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Hi IreneL Thanks for your advice. Btw where u get latest broker reports? |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
28-Nov-2006 21:52
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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I think Jurtech could possibly be on an uptrend. The general market sentiment today dragged it down. |
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maxsyn
Veteran |
28-Nov-2006 21:13
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expecting it will break the resistance but unfortunately a bad day today, so under the profit taking pressure. But unlikely to see it down to 1.13 soon. |
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IreneL
Senior |
28-Nov-2006 19:54
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Hi virgoan You have to decide at what price you are willing to buy into. Today's report from UOBKayHian gave JurTech a buy call with a price target of $1.80. I was also eyeing this counter last week when it was $1.13. So for me, I am only willing to buy at around $1.14/15 for long term. |
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virgoan
Member |
28-Nov-2006 16:00
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good time to get in now? |
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