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Dow Outlook
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
28-Nov-2013 16:47
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Dow Futures Green Green
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
28-Nov-2013 13:22
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Is the stock-market bubble about to pop?Commentary: Retail investors are getting nervous...this article end this way... None of these issues is conducive to getting a good night?s sleep. So don?t be surprised if it?s the small investor who bails out first, leaving the big institutional investors holding the bag, instead of the other way around. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-stock-market-bubble-about-to-pop-2013-11-26 |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
28-Nov-2013 10:57
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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History: Stock appetite rises after Turkey DayThankfully, the stock market tends to go up and rally hard into year-end following the annual Thanksgiving feast.NEW YORK ? Turkey Day has a way of increasing investors' appetite for U.S. stocks. In fact, investors tend to gobble up stocks and push prices higher from the end of Thanksgiving week through year's end, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group. ... http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/11/27/post-thanksgiving-stock-rallies/3764641/ |
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Mardi.tan
Member |
28-Nov-2013 08:52
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Time to short Dow ..Correction coming | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
28-Nov-2013 08:01
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Record Close:
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
27-Nov-2013 16:53
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Stock Futures green green
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
27-Nov-2013 08:33
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Nasdaq closes above 4000The Nasdaq composite closes above 4000 for the first time in 13 years as good news on housing is offset by a drop in consumer confidence to a seven-month low.NEW YORK -- The Nasdaq composite finally reached 4000 and then blew past it, closing well above that milestone in trading Tuesday. Despite a drop in consumer confidence to a seven-month low, U.S. stocks ticked higher -- the Dow Jones industrial average by the slimmest of margins -- in light pre-Thanksgiving trading. The Nasdaq ended the day up 0.6% to 4017.75 -- its first close above 4000 since Sept. 7, 2000. " This year's rally has been very broad-based," Chris Verrone, an analyst at Strategas Research Partners, said in a research note to clients. Trading is expected to be light for the duration of the week as traders get a head start on the long Thanksgiving holiday weekend. In economic news, there was good news on the housing front, but some disconcerting news on the consumer confidence front. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index flashed a reading of 70.4 in November, below the 73 analysts expected and its lowest level since April. Real estate news was better. The S& P/Case-Shiller 20-city home-price index rose 13.3% in September on a year-over-year basis. Similarly, building permits jumped 6.2% in October to seasonally adjusted rate of 1.03 million units, which is a five-year high. On Monday, the Dow rose 0.1% to 16,072.54. The S& P 500 fell 0.1% to 1,802.48. But the Nasdaq rose as high as 4,007.09, a level it hasn't seen since Sept. 7, 2000, during the dot-com bubble. The index ended up 0.1% at 3,994.57. In energy markets, benchmark crude for January delivery was up 46 cents at $94.55 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 75 cents to $94.09 on Monday. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.7% to 15,515.24. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
26-Nov-2013 15:27
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Jeremy Siegel sees 2,000 as fair-market value for S& P 500Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel spoke on a live webcast Friday about stock valuation, saying that when interest rates are lower than 8%, U.S. equities, as measured by the S& P 500, have averaged a price-to-earnings ratio of 19. That P/E ratio implies a fair-market value for the S& P 500 of over 2,000 based on this year?s combined earnings. That?s 10% to 13% higher than the index?s current levels. Siegel argues that view works even if long-term interest rates, as measured by the 10-year bond, rise, since they are abnormally low thanks to the Fed. ?We are still at extremely normal, average valuations and, in fact, low valuations, given the interest-rate environment and even the anticipated rise in interest rates,? Siegel said. He said European shares are about 10% to 15% cheaper than those of comparable U.S. companies. And Shanghai?s valuations are ?pretty attractive.? In addition, Siegel said the technology sector, trading at a P/E of 13, is at ?one of the cheapest [levels] it?s ever been relative to the rest of the market,? adding that tech stocks have historically traded at a premium. ?We?re used to seeing it at 25.? Siegel spoke at the CFA Institute Conference: Equity Research and Valuation 2013 in New York. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
26-Nov-2013 14:27
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Dow 18,000 fair value on forward earnings: SiegelThe current projections for future earnings put the fair market value at 18,000 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Wharton School professor Jeremy Siegel told CNBC on Monday. " It doesn't mean that we're going to get there right away or we're going to get there in a straight line," Siegel said in a " Squawk Box" interview. " We've had a long time without even a 10% correction." But he added: " I don't think this bull market is over yet. I still think there's good gains to come." In January, Siegel had predicted the Dow could hit 16,000 by year end. That happened for the first time ever when the Dow closed on Thursday. The S& P Index closed above 1,800 for the first time a day later. Premarket trading Monday morning in U.S. stock futures pointed to a higher opening on Wall Street. Siegel pointed out: " We had an earnings gain this year over last year of about 10 to 12%, which is pretty good in a slow economic growth situation." " The current projections are another 8% [for] next year. So it could go higher" if the economy were to speed up, he added. ?By CNBC |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
26-Nov-2013 12:50
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Stocks 'very overpriced,' and so what if they are?The aggressive market rally of 2013 might look like it's starting to run out of steam, but history says there could be some fuel left in the tank yet. While there remains any number of headwinds, past behavior at least suggests such a hard-charging run doesn't necessarily signal a spent market. The average next-year return for the S& P when it gains more than 20% is still about half that, according to historical data from S& P Capital IQ. " Good years tend to follow great years," said Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S& P Capital IQ. Since World War II, the S& P market index has seen 18 annual gains of more than 20%. In the years immediately following, the market rose an average of 10% and posted gains 78% of the time. That compares favorably to the historical annual rise of 8.4% and a 70% frequency of positive years. The S& P has rallied 26.5% in 2013 and has not had a single correction?defined as a drop of 10% or more?despite facing numerous challenges. As the year comes to a close, though, multiple market strategists have issued warnings that the market is overheated and susceptible to a sharp retreat. Goldman Sachs became the latest over the weekend, noting that the market appears close to fairly valued and could be in for a 10% or so pullback. Market research firm TrimTabs called the S& P " very overpriced" while earnings and revenue growth " are low" and the economy " is basically stalling." Yet the firm said no major retreats are in sight. " We expect the U.S. stock market party to keep right on rolling through the holiday season," CEO David Santschi said in the firm's weekly market analysis. " We want to be absolutely clear that we are not upbeat because of favorable fundamentals or healthy economic growth. ... We are bullish because of one thing?liquidity." The Federal Reserve has been pumping $85 billion each month in purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities. While investors anticipate the central bank by March will begin reducing that total, the purchases likely will continue through most of 2014. Meantime, companies have been using low interest rates and the favorable liquidity climate to buy up their own shares, snapping up $24.4 billion last week, the most in more than two months, TrimTabs reported. Craig W. Johnson, technical market strategist at Piper Jaffray, has been perhaps the most bullish Wall Street pro this year, putting a 1,850 target on the S& P early on and not wavering despite the comparative caution from his peers. Johnson said in a note Monday that he's sticking with that price, which would represent a 2.5% advance from current levels, and is holding tight to his projection of 2,000 in 2014 for a market that has set 37 new closing highs this year. " Despite these new records sentiment toward this bull market remains subdued and investors seem uncommitted to this advance," he said. " We reiterate our belief that the great equity rotation, which we first discussed in August of 2012, is unfolding and there is no alternative to equities." None of this means, of course, that there still can't be a substantial pullback, and if it comes strategists expect it to be sooner rather than later. The market has showed a stunning propensity to shake off headline risk this year, but there are always the unknowns out there that could yet rattle a toppy market. S& P's Stovall listed a handful of " black swan" events such as natural disasters and terror attacks, as well as Washington dysfunction and stretched profit margins as potential stumbling blocks. " A boxer is rarely felled by the punch he expects," he said. " We have a variety of headwinds out there." ?By CNBC |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
25-Nov-2013 16:51
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Stock Futures Green Green
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
24-Nov-2013 18:09
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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The S& P chart that?s spooking Wall Street What?s that, you ask? It?s a chart that overlays the S& P 500 and its latest run against how equities traded in late 1920s, just ahead of and after the (gulp) big crash. It?s a chart that?s ?starting to make the rounds? on Wall Street, says BTIG?s Dan Greenhaus, who provides the rather bleary looking thing in his latest market-closing note. He says the fact this the subject of some water-cooler talk proves that ?the idea of a ?bubble? is no less prevalent today than it has been in recent weeks.? He adds: ?Without getting too personal, ?chart overlaying? is lazy and this is no less so. But it does remind us that as much as everyone thinks everyone else is ?all bulled up,? these views still persist and have shown no indication they are going away any time soon.? Or maybe Thursday?s DJIA close above 16,000 wasn?t so special after all, given that it?s the 40th record close this year, the stats show. Though some, like Michael Sincere, says the bubble is waaaay off and Dow 20,000 here we come) Over at Monex Capital, analysts on Friday say there?s growing cynicism as to whether ?this is now where stocks truly start to look overblown,? noting that even with dollar/yen trading above 101, the Nikkei is ?struggling to make much more headway? as the end of the month nears. Then there?s next week?s Thanksgiving-shortened trading week, which may be a temptation too great for profit-takers to ignore. The bottom line, Monex analysts say: No one wants to get caught on the wrong side of a reversion, and while Fed tapering ahead of Christmas may seem bat-crap crazy, that?s going to be the key catalyst for a selloff. As for the bubble belfry, judging by a Bloomberg survey, there are bats aplenty. But if you are looking for the definitive word on bubbles, look no further than our slideshow that rounds up the biggest voices in the financial universe as to whether we?re in a bubble.
无 法 记 取 历 史 教 训 的 人 必 会 重 蹈 复 辙 。 单 纯 依 赖 历 史 经 验 ， 将 会 被 严 重 误 导 。 |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
23-Nov-2013 10:55
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
23-Nov-2013 10:53
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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handongni
Senior |
20-Nov-2013 07:48
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Dow is well-positioned technically for a year-end stretch above 16,000 - Gene Peroni, senior vice president and portfolio manager at Advisors Asset Management. |
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stockmarketmind
Master |
18-Oct-2013 20:50
Yells: "stockmarketmindgames" |
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Finished my 2 days worth of Dow trade with profits of $4049. http://stockmarketmindgames.blogspot.sg/2013/10/the-dow-jones-trade-4049-with-100-hit.html |
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handongni
Senior |
09-Oct-2013 07:29
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Obama to nominate Yellen for Fed Chair |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
28-Sep-2013 08:44
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks fall first weekly drop since AugustNEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks declined on Friday, with the S& P 500 index and Dow industrials posting their first weekly drop in four, as Wall Street remained unsettled over the lack of progress in budget negotiations on Capitol Hill, with a deadline just days away. " Right now there is going to be a lot of misplaced angst over the whole debt-ceiling argument. It's political brinkmanship, a sequel that has the same ending time after time there will be a rash of negative headlines and people losing their tempers. It's going to create some choppiness in the market between here and October," said Matthew Kaufler, portfolio manager at Federated Investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 70.06 points to 15,258.24. The S& P 500 index lost 6.92 points to 1,691.75. The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.83 points to 3,781.59. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
27-Sep-2013 08:41
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks rise on brightened jobs pictureNEW YORK (MarketWatch) ? U.S. stocks rose on Thursday, with the S& P 500 rebounding from its longest losing streak this year, as a larger-than-expected drop in jobless claims mostly overrode worries about a budget standoff on Capitol Hill. ?The strong jobs data were constructive, but we think it?s going to be a nervous period for risk assets. Washington is going to be driving the bus really for the next few weeks,? said Jim Russell, senior equity strategist for U.S. Bank Wealth Management. There is ?fear about a possible government shutdown and a very contentious debate is likely over the debt ceiling. If the past is any guide, this is going to be a food fight like no other, and it will not put America in the best light on the global stage,? Russell said. But the likely volatility that comes with Wall Street reacting to headlines out of Washington does represent an opportunity for investors. ?At the end of the day, you have to fund the government, you have to raise the debt ceiling, so if markets decline due to short-term issues, buy good quality names on sale,? Russell advised. After a five-session losing streak, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied as much as 113.9 points, and ended with a gain of 55.04 points, or 0.4%, to 15,328.30. Also up after a five-session drop, the S& P 500 index climbed 5.90 points, or 0.4%, to 1,698.67, with telecommunications pacing gains that included all but utilities among its 10 major industry sectors. Equities came off session highs after House Speaker John Boehner said on Thursday that his party will push for a bill that will tie increasing the debt ceiling ? and continue funding the government past Oct. 1 ? to more cuts in federal spending. The comments by the Ohio Republican did not completely derail market gains as the S& P 500 rebounded from its longest stretch of losses since late December. Stocks got a second wind after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said his chamber plans to have a stopgap budget bill finished by Sunday. Stocks are not far from all time-highs ?while being held hostage to the dysfunction in Washington,? said Art Hogan, market strategist at Lazard Capital Markets. ?I think the debt ceiling [will be] raised I don?t think we?re going to see a default,? said Chris Gaffney, senior vice president and senior market strategist at EverBank Wealth Management. The Senate on Wednesday moved toward advancing a bill that would keep the government open after Monday without wiping out funding from the health-care law. Also Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew told Congress the Treasury will only have $30 billion in cash by Oct. 17, putting the nation on the brink of default. The Nasdaq Composite gained 26.33 points, or 0.7%, to 3,787.43. For every five stocks falling, more than nine rose on the New York Stock Exchange, where nearly 603 million shares traded. Composite volume neared 2.8 billion. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
26-Sep-2013 08:51
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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S& P 500 tallies longest losing streak this yearWal-Mart shares hit, leading blue-chip losses
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) ? U.S. stocks dropped on Wednesday, with the
S& P 500 index recording its longest decline since December, as a
possible government shutdown overrode better-than-forecast economic
reports.
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