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Bottoming out...
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frosin
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28-Oct-2009 15:49
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Looks like sales is over, now left some $0.225 only. Well people may think star cruise is not doing well by looking at figures... but shipping is a long term business. the complication also includes the hull. a cruise can be depreciated to below its useful life and then sold for hull value, which is sizable. Or like our navy retrofit or mid life upgrade to run it for another lifespan at a fraction of the cost. well, the limitation in this business is capacity and occupancies which determines profitability. otherwise, capital cost like loans are part and parcel of an expectation for such high PPE company. See you guys, who are not vested, when it goes to $0.25, $0.28, and $0.30. |
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frosin
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28-Oct-2009 11:50
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Interestingly. The convertible bond that is taxing the company at 7.5% till 2016 can convert up to 1,028,761,061 shares at US$0.146. there is existing 7,426,245,846 shares in the market in the Company already. Given that star cruise is normally above US$0.23, we will use this number for computation of after conversion fair value. 1,028,761,061 shares represents 12.17% after conversion at US$0.146. This would lead to a new fair price of US$0.220. The stock is trading at that level already prior to conversion, also if it goes below US$0.215 then it is really a sales. If converted, the benefit to the company FSA is that they are cashflow positive and no longer having a heavy debt. Thus, the conversion should be preferred. Also, those bond holders who got their shares at US$0.146 will dump it them for immediate, creating the entry point for major shareholders. I see fair value at US$0.22, the downside would be due to the 12.17% which is not yet announced to be converted. Afterwards, the company is all upsides thanks to the capitalization (after conversion) from the bondholders. |
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frosin
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28-Oct-2009 09:25
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This company is dual listed already. It is working to get the name change. Anyway, it is coming down due to the amazing number of short range seller. Any time shares trade at $0.22, it queue at $0.225 and so on. no wonder it is coming down without reason. the caveat is the report which will move prices. |
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hanwudi
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27-Oct-2009 22:07
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Any possibilities to list in Hong Kong as they changed their name to Genting HK? If they list in Hong Kong, it will be a positive news for this counter. | ||||||||||||
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frosin
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27-Oct-2009 09:49
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strong strength lurking in the dark, waiting for the result release.
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frosin
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27-Oct-2009 08:59
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Can buy at $0.22 or $0.225. value buy. | ||||||||||||
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frosin
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26-Oct-2009 10:42
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Star Cruise, which would soon be trading as "Genting HK", is at the bottom of its swing seeing strong resistance below $0.225. The share is trading slightly 2x of its $0.10 par value. The company, who is going to report its 3rd quarter result shortly, is likely to see an improvement in Passenger Cruise Days, Capacity and Occupancy on a q-o-q basis. It is likely that for the entire 9 month period that the company would still be making loss, although the losses are shrinking. It should show continued minimization of Cruise operating cost as the management pro-active approach to cut down on cost, so that the company can better survive this period. It is also likely that the management would have an improved outlook over the cruise market over the next 3 - 6 months. The company is set to benefit from the low fuel cost during most of the last quarter but the increasing fuel cost for this current quarter is set to dampen its profitability at the current price level. The company might be able to demonstrates its viability to survive as a company under the Genting Group serving as a complimentary to Genting's other facilities. We should see this report next week or so. |
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