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ruanlai
Master |
16-Aug-2007 14:33
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FED should anounce straight away now for rate cut, not only quarter percent but one full percent...... DOW will shoot up 1000pts and STI will shoot up 300points overnight.... Let's HOPE ! (maybe in the dream !) |
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KiLrOy
Master |
16-Aug-2007 14:22
Yells: "I buy only what I can see." |
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' haha, kilroy, re the goldman sachs/morgan stanley buy/hold call in the other post the other day: i was right. :P ' YOU SURE ARE LITTLE LADY *wink*. I am reading your posts just to keep sanity with this market extremo volatility. Talk about hard landing... |
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red1721
Senior |
16-Aug-2007 14:20
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very well said indeed...I have that approx 45 days thing as stated in my other post(I stated 1.5 to 2 months few days back). Anyway as I have said, many people do not want to face the fact that it is a bear market for now. Have already advice in here not to average to cut loss...but many just can't bear the temptation thinking it won't drop any further. Yes, there might be a small recovery next week, but it will not be the end of the bear. |
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sohguanh
Veteran |
16-Aug-2007 14:16
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when kepcorp, sembmar, sembcorp, UIC, Cosco all drop to $1 it will be time for us to go in? hahahahaha... i live to witness the day when the above stocks kiss $1 :) |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
16-Aug-2007 14:09
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you know ruanlai, while the situation is bad, it really isn't that bad to a 'xi liao' case where everything is dead. in this case where a lot are already feeling bad and panicky, it would be nice to exercise some discretion in a public forum rather than fan up emotions. facts: the biggest hit is being taken by the blue chips since foreign funds are selling them to shore up their europe and US losses. because Asia is the only market left that has some profits. hedge funds are getting in the act by shorting to make up for their losses. moral of story: why would you trust a fund manager anymore than yourself in the market? how much more does he know? morgan stanley gave an 'all clear' signal just two days ago. yah right. what charts are they looking at? the trouble is with quants. they're using computer models to determine buy/sell, but in this way, they forget to think, they forget to factor in the one thing that computers can't quantify: human emotion. and the stock market is a place of emotions, not logic. haha, kilroy, re the goldman sachs/morgan stanley buy/hold call in the other post the other day: i was right. :P the fact is that there are no buy calls at this point in time: because if you are an FA player, you'll park it deep under your pillow and let it go to sleep for now. if you're a techie, you're doing only one thing: intraday scalping. fundamentals don't matter in a market that is emotive. the singapore economy is NOT in peril, and that's a fact. what is also a fact: the stock market is in peril. for long term holding, not yet time to buy. STI should fall to at least 3096 by my count. (believe sporeguy has a count similar to this?). the cue to enter is when daily vol drops to 1-1.5bil, and the forums are dead and quiet, and no one dares to buy. 45 days to go. this is day 1. kepcorp, sembmar, sembcorp, UIC will likely still go lower. believe some of the cos have instituted share buybacks actually. am seeing anomalous odd large buys here and there. cosco is majorly tanking. support at 4.06, and again at 4. if dips below, it's freefall. there's some underground deal: 16,000 lots bought at 4.08. |
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sohguanh
Veteran |
16-Aug-2007 13:44
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it is interesting to note those super high profile traders like happyday and others are not posting in SJ why? in bear market cannot post stock calls anymore? this bear moment only reflect the truly efficient stock market player is always there during BOTH bear and bull. only then can you really be the winner in the end. panic selling should be the time to buy in for selected stocks instead in my opinion. furthermore past few days financials for some stocks are very encouraging indeed. it is not as if one after another posting huge losses implying the whole Spore economy is in peril isn't it? emotion can be a powerful beast indeed. |
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l_tan888
Senior |
16-Aug-2007 13:33
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A quarter percentage cut in August and then followed by another quarter percentage cut in their Sept 18 meeting will not cause any bubble. How bad can a combined half a percentage cut do? Maybe it's even not enough by October 2007. The money market is presently genuinely in need of this requirement. |
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Jimxli
Member |
16-Aug-2007 13:27
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synnexo, yes, correct, that why i said a rate cut timing must be right else will fuel US housing bubble further.......& when this bubble burst...all hell break loose........ becasue of this, i wonder if Ben can do that magical touch which the old man had did in the past |
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synnexo
Veteran |
16-Aug-2007 13:18
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If Fed cut rates then it will likely to open up the flood gates. This action might "dig a deeper hole" for the subprime problem. The cost of borrowing will be lower. Thus, makes borrowing more attractive. Toms & Dicks will try to loan more then & this will suck up the resources in the financial market. |
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l_tan888
Senior |
16-Aug-2007 13:15
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Why??? This is the only way to calm the markets. When inflation rises, which eventually will as with all the economic cycles, the FED can slowly adjust the rates again. Otherwise, how do you explain your bowl of noodles from S$1.00 in the 70's to S$3.50 now? |
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Pinnacle
Master |
16-Aug-2007 13:13
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By Oct.. not sure whether the stock market around the world able to hold till then... maybe already RIP. 
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Henry$$$
Senior |
16-Aug-2007 13:13
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FED cut interest rate.. worsen the situation |
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l_tan888
Senior |
16-Aug-2007 13:08
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In my opinion, the FED has to cut interest rate by at least half a percentage point by October 2007 in order to stablize the situation. |
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ruanlai
Master |
16-Aug-2007 13:03
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Now is the time for all the banks to collect back all the umbrellas........ Raining day starts now.....will see a lot of ppls naked, bankrupt......worst is Suc...... Bank starts to take back the money, then broker firms will continue to tiden the financing.....margin call......force selling........PPls got no money to spend.....retails busniess got hit.....tourists not coming....hotel no one stay.......IR no one play....... XI LIAO lah..... |
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Jimxli
Member |
16-Aug-2007 12:56
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oh...by the way...this is not a buy call, not yet......just to put them on watch list only and long term mean can be up to 4 years |
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Jimxli
Member |
16-Aug-2007 12:50
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timing must be right for a fed rate qtr point reduction.....problem is US housing bubble, a cut at wrong timing would fuel it to inflat further.... having said that.......doesnt mean it doom.......as what sohguanh hav said.....hunting season in.....as long as u have long term holding power.... let's start identify what good..... for long term....like reit, index stock |
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Pension
Elite |
16-Aug-2007 12:30
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may drop below 3,000 if dow continue to fall, run for your life. I think the FED is sleeping, if alan greenspan is with fed, I think he will drop the interest rate straight away. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
16-Aug-2007 12:27
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Asia Pacific central banks and financial chiefs kept a tight watch on money markets and attempted to reassure investors on Thursday as fears of a worsening global credit storm gripped the region.
"There's a degree of panic over the uncertainty induced by the subprime sector in the United States," said P.K. Basu, chief economist for Asia ex-Japan at Daiwa. "The economic fundamentals in Asia are very sound. However, the final residing place of these CDOs (collateralised debt obligations) and the derivatives issued on the subprime mortgages is difficult to predict." The problems started when banks repackaged and resold risky subprime loans in the form of CDOs and other instruments to banks and funds around the world. As demand for the securities dried up, these banks and funds were unable to sell and had to mark down the value of their holdings. That in turn spooked investors and caused credit markets worldwide to tighten. Central banks reacted by pouring cash into money markets to smooth out trading. Australia's central bank added a larger-than-usual amount to the banking system on Thursday, which analysts took as an attempt to ease upward pressure on market interest rates. Australian Treasurer Peter Costello said the Australian banking sector was well capitalised and had sufficient liquidity. South Korean Vice Finance Minister Kim Seok-dong said the government would collaborate with the central bank to inject funds into money markets through repurchase agreements on any signs of a squeeze. And the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said it was closely monitoring markets but believed the level of cash within the banking system was adequate. The comments came after St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole said that financial market turmoil had not undermined the U.S. economy and there was no need for the central bank to ride to the rescue with an emergency rate cut. [ID:nN15285784] Markets were anything but reassured. The region's stocks extended their decline, with Japan's Nikkei reaching 8-1/2-month lows. Heightened risk aversion propelled the yen to a near five-month high against the dollar As those trades were unwound, the Australian dollar briefly fell below US$0.80 for the first time since March and the New Zealand dollar dropped more than 3.5 percent from the day's high to around US$0.6830. Other Asian currencies extended recent losses and central banks in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines were reported to have stepped into the market to support their currencies. COUNTRYWIDE WOES SOW FEAR In the latest scare for already jittery investors, a Merrill Lynch analyst flagged the possibility that Countrywide Financial But North America's monetary authorities reopened the taps. The U.S. Federal Reserve added $7 billion in temporary reserves as losses in the U.S. subprime mortgage market sent Wall Street stocks slumping again. And the Bank of Canada stepped in after a day on the sidelines, injecting C$350 million ($330 million) of repurchase funds and leaving the banking system flush with cash. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) picked up the baton in its regular daily money market operation on Thursday, adding A$3.04 billion ($2.49 billion) in cash to the banking system, above the A$2.5 billion estimated requirement. "What's interesting is that they've added a generous amount, they're concentrating on money market debt and they've lent at rates below what the market was charging," said Matthew Johnson, senior economist at broker ICAP. U.S. Treasuries, perceived as a safe haven in times of financial stress, were in high demand. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
16-Aug-2007 12:25
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Southeast Asian stocks fell to multi-month lows during early trade on Thursday, extending losses from the previous day, after Wall Street tumbled on renewed investor concerns over global credit markets.
Singapore's Straits Times Index fell 4.94 percent, the biggest single-day decline in almost six years, to a five-month low of 3,111.49 points. By 0343 GMT, the key index recovered to 3,130.65 points, down 4.36 percent from the previous close. The STI has lost about 15 percent since hitting a record high of 3,688.58 points on July 16, but is still up 4.9 percent since the start of the year. Elsewhere in the region, Jakarta stocks fell 5.34 percent to a four-month low, led by losses in telecom and bank stocks as the market shrugged off better-than-expected GDP data announced on Wednesday. Shares in Kuala Lumpur were down 3.34 percent, their lowest level in five months. Philippine stocks fell 4.94 percent to a seven-month low, and Thai shares slipped 3.86 percent. Vietnam's key index slid 1.65 percent. "The market is not just looking at the U.S subprime's direct impact, but factoring in the indirect effects as well, which is slower U.S. growth and how it will affect Asian economies," UOB Kay Hian analyst Leng Seng Choon said. U.S. stocks declined sharply on Wednesday after shares of Countrywide Financial In Singapore, banks led losses with DBS Group Holdings United Overseas Bank Indonesian stocks fell even though government data on Wednesday showed that the economy was on track to post its strongest growth in 11 years. The country's top telecom firm Telekomunikasi Indonesia |
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Fairygal
Veteran |
16-Aug-2007 11:43
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The only thing that goes up now is blood pressure! |
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