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SPC
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tanglinboy
Elite |
17-Jul-2006 11:02
Yells: "hello!" |
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SPC just crashed 11 cents |
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Livermore
Master |
16-Jul-2006 13:29
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Gasoline price up, business feeling itBY COURTNEY CLOYDThe Wichita EagleThe price of crude oil briefly surpassed $78 a barrel Friday, after Wichitans woke up to an overnight jump of about 12 cents in the price of a gallon of gasoline. Brian Leu, who owns Perfection Lawn Management in Rose Hill, felt the shock when he refueled his truck on Friday at $2.89 a gallon. "If I use my big truck and mower, it will cost me about $115 for two days," he said. He can do about 30 lawns in that time. Leu's truck uses diesel fuel, which he said was about 30 cents cheaper than regular unleaded when he bought the truck four years ago. He says it's now about 20 to 30 cents more expensive. Leu said that to save money on fuel, he had to discontinue lawn service for his west Wichita customers. "You've just got to shrink your work zone," he said. Leu gave his west Wichita clients to his former business partner, who runs Brendan's Lawn Care, because the majority of Brendan's clients are already on the west side. "It's not worth paying a guy to drive out there," Leu said. The cost of gasoline has driven up the cost of operating his business enough that he raised his prices earlier this year. He said most of his customers understood the change, but he did lose two accounts. Because oil accounts for more than 50 percent of the cost of gasoline, U.S. pump prices, now averaging $2.96 a gallon nationwide, are likely to climb more, analysts said. The jump in the cost of oil was caused by a number of factors, most recently the Israeli attacks against Lebanese militants, which stoked fears of a wider Middle East conflict and a possible oil-supply disruption. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries issued a statement in which it blamed geopolitical factors beyond its control for the recent price volatility. The group emphasized that the market is "well-supplied with crude." Oil prices did not arrive at the doorstep of $80 a barrel overnight. The combination of rising global demand, limited excess production capacity and concerns about supply interruptions from Nigeria to the Gulf of Mexico have all played a part, analysts said. So, too, has the influx of billions of dollars into oil markets in recent years by hedge funds and other financial institutions angling for profits amid global instability. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
15-Jul-2006 21:44
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Hi shplayer, Thanks for the compliment... :) As for SPC, I think the trend is a little uncertain now... you can tell by the volume... its been hovering between 1000K to 2000K for the past 1 month. Although the RSI has been steadily rising over past 1 month, I sense that uncertainity is creeping into the previously cautious optimism. My advise for now... to wait and see. |
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shplayer
Elite |
15-Jul-2006 19:16
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angmooshi, As mentioned in my earlier thread, the abandonment of the Vietnam field is part of the exploration risks. It will be nice if all the wells explored result in a commercially viable oil strike. But, unfortunately, this is not realistic. If you look at SPC's case, to date, co. has participated in 4 concession blocks, namely Kakap, Sampang (Jeruk, Oyang), Vietnam and Cambodia. Kakap is already producing. Sampang is proven commercially viable via Jeruk and Oyang. Vietnam...dry well. Cambodia....no result yet. Their current success ratio is still better than average....2 out of 3. If Cambodia proves viable, then it is 3 out of 4. If Cambodia not viable, then it is down to 2 out of 4....which is still above average. So, I dont consider the vietnam venture as too negative. As to whether I would recomment the counter, I cant tell you for the following reasons: I do not know your
What I try to do is to share with fellow members what I know about the counters by giving fundamental data and industry insight. Members are free to utilise the info/opinion I have offered and judge for themselves if the counter suits their investment needs. As for entry timing, I must admit I am not too well versed in TA techniques and have only recently started to delve more into this. However, another member, singaporegal, is very well versed in TA.....and she has been a great help to other members in this area. |
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Livermore
Master |
15-Jul-2006 15:27
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SPC share is worth holding for the long term |
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pikachu
Veteran |
15-Jul-2006 13:00
Yells: "Holy Cow!" |
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hi angmooshi, just go to the research link on this website and download the 2 PDF files. they will teach you the basics of charting |
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angmooshi
Member |
15-Jul-2006 12:47
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Hi Shplayer, would you still recommend this counter now that the Vietnam oilfield did not yeild any oil? I'm new to this so would appreciate your comments. By the way, if I want to learn how to use the charts available here, where can I get the necessary information. Many thanks! |
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shplayer
Elite |
14-Jul-2006 22:16
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Hey Guys, Let me try to put it in perspective. Currently, the contribution of operating profit between Downstream (DS-refining, trading and retail) and Upstream (US - Exploration & Production) is about 90% : 10%. The DS activities include 50% of SRC (Spore Refining Co.), oil trading, SPC petrol stations and LPG sales. US revenue is currently from oil & gas production of the production sharing Kakap field - output about 2600 boe (barrel of oil equivalent) per day. It was only recently (past 2 years) that Co. embarked on an aggressive drive to invest more in US business....bear in mind, as recent as early 2004, SPC parent KepCorp viewed SPC as non core asset and in late 2003 or early 2004, they sold 20% of SPC to an Indonesian concern for $1.20....of course, the Indo are laughing all the way to the bank. Kep Corp realised their mistake and now SPC is considered part of their core business. US business is a risky and high capital business.....used to be only 10% of wells drilled turn out to be commercially viable. Now with improved geophysical technology the odds are better...1:3 or 1:4. Lead time from award of drilling concessions to production of oil (if they strike oil) is between 3-5 years. The Halong exploration is one of the dry wells....one of the expected statistics. The Jeruk field, even with lower reserves, is not that detrimental to SPC in the short term. Say for example the reserve is now reduced from 170 mbbl (million barrel) to 80 mbbl, and say if production rate, when it comes on stream is 20,000 bopd (bb of oil per day), then production is 7.3 mbbl pa. Revenue for SPC (say at USD70/bbl) = 70 x 7.3 x 0.36 = USD184 mil or S$290mil. From the Kakap production, 1Q 06 margin is 60%. Say, for Jeruk, because it is a new investment, margin is 40%, profit contribution from the Jeruk will be S$116m per year....or eps of 23cts per year. Based on the a/m assumptions, the productive life of Jeruk is about 10 years (instead of 20 years is reserves remained at 170m bbl). 10 years is a long long term for stock investors. Oyang is coming on stream 3Q 06. SPC's share is of the production is estimate at 3,500 bopd. Based on same calcs above, revenue from Oyang will be USD89.4m or S$140m. At 40% margin, profit contribution is S$56m or eps of 11cts per year. What I have tried to illustrate is that US activities, when it comes onstream, will contribute substantially to SPC's future earnings and period of contribution from each oil strike is for several years. So, with SPC, if you believe that high oil prices is here to stay, you need to take a long term view.... But, of course, time your entry to vest. I am vested since early 2004. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
14-Jul-2006 20:57
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Besides market weakness, the other possible reasons for its price fall are as below. Expected production from the Jeruk oilfield has been downgraded. The height of the known hydrocarbon column in the Jeruk structure is now considered to be approximately 145m compared to the originally interpreted 379m. This has reduced the most likely contingent resource < the 170 mmbbl estimate previously provided to the mkt in Jan '05. Tests show that the HaLong-1X exploration well didn't recover any hydrocarbon. |
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Livermore
Master |
14-Jul-2006 17:55
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Bad sentiments affects most stocks. Let's see SPC share by year end |
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shplayer
Elite |
14-Jul-2006 15:30
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Currently Upstream (oil/gas production) contributes only 10% of total opn profit. 1Q FY06 eps is 13.28cts. Refining margins for 2Q is definitely better. Higher oil prices in 2Q will also contribute to bottomline. Oyang field is expected to come on stream in 3Q 06. This is expected to more than double upstream revenues...ald also opn profits. 3Q will see oil prices remaining high due to ME crises and hurricane season. If hurricane knocks out some US refineries, refining contract rates will remain strong. FY05 div payout is 32cts (tax exempt)...so at say $5.00 per sh...yield is 6.4% (or 8% pre tax). My take is.... buy on weakness. |
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teeth53
Supreme |
14-Jul-2006 14:09
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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Oil play, but oil stock oso went down leh...on consolidation/contra play. |
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tanglinboy
Elite |
14-Jul-2006 13:34
Yells: "hello!" |
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ic... thanks for the info |
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OngHuiH
Member |
14-Jul-2006 12:28
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Main reason for SPC falls: SPC has interest in Jeruk Oil .... read this. Santos Ltd said it will most likely reduce the reserves estimate at its Jeruk oil discovery offshore east Java in Indonesia .... Singapore Petroleum Ltd has 36.0 pct interest ......... |
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tanglinboy
Elite |
14-Jul-2006 11:16
Yells: "hello!" |
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Hey Livermore, I saw that you keep mentioning SPC...but its falling leh.. You got some news about this counter? |
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