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Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

shadow
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04-Oct-2013 00:10

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Yangzijiang has become a market darling: At Deutsche's target price of $1.50, YZJ would trade at 10.5x FY13E PER. Photo: CompanyYangzijiang Shipbuilding replaces Keppel Corp, as we think order flow has better upside potential versus market expectations.

The consolidating sector should increase its market share and a number of its 51 contract options issued should be exercised in the coming quarter.

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bookwormy
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03-Oct-2013 23:28

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Everyday is a learning day with you around bro cheongsl!

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shadow
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03-Oct-2013 22:55

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cheongsl , great job !

we need more people like you to provide us with greater insight to make trading decision.

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ascend88
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03-Oct-2013 22:20

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They like to buy when yzj is 2$ ... I like to sell to them at that price :)

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cheongsl
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03-Oct-2013 22:08

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The most funny thing about Kim Eng Report is that it compare with 2008 for the contract price, where BDI is more then 10,000, currently only around 2,000. But they forget to compare the steel price in China in 2008 and current which is around 720USD per tonne and current is 491USD per tonne, don't forget USD drop alot in this period, thus the decline in steel price is even more.

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cheongsl
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03-Oct-2013 21:52

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Container freight rates softening despite the surge in BDI.

Despite the surge in BDI, when comparing over a longer time horizon, BDI level is still significantly below peak or even the more normalised levels of 2,000-6,000. Furthermore, BDI reflects the bulk shipping market and is not representative of the whole shipping market. The container shipping market remains weak as evidenced by the fall in Shanghai Containerised Freight Index. While Maersk has raised their demand growth in 2014-2015 to 4-6% from 2-3%,

the increased capacity expected to come in from shipyards still far exceeds the expected demand growth given thet 10-11% growth in capacity this year. This creates a huge supply-demand gap which we believed continue to cap rate increases.

BDI level above 1400 is consider good for shipping company already, but they are taking the over shoot abnormal period to normalize, thus consider below peak??? That means when the BDI is abnormal then we should consider picking up the share.

This type of thinking is very funny to me?

CCFI fall?? The index is hover around 1100 pts. Up and down, there isn?t any fall. Beside that Yang Zi Jiang order does not mainly come from the China shipper, why are they consider China freight rate.

cheongsl ( Date: 03-Oct-2013 21:30) Posted:

Yes, it is possible to have +ve and -ve report as individual have different level of understanding to one situation.

Eg. Kim Eng Report which mention as below.

" BDI rise led by mainly by capesize rates. The positive expectation was fueled by a sudden surge in BDI. This may have been driven by Chinese steel producers restocking their iron-ore

inventory and importing cheaper and higher quality seaborne supplies from Australia over domestic supplies. Historically bulker rates have been volatile and had rose during this same period at least for the last 3 years prior in the led up to Chinese Golden Weak. Furthermore, the recent rise was mainly driven mainly by rate hikes for capesize vessels. We are skeptical about its sustainability without convincing signs of an economic recovery. China?s September PMI came in at 51.1, below market expectations which cast further doubts on a sustained economic

rebound."

BDI is driven by steel producer restocking their iron-ore inventory??? and rose in same period due to Chinese golden week???

Lets take a look at BCI, the major increase is actually due to Atlantic Freight not Pacific Freight, if Kim Eng researches think that China is in Atlantic boundary then they better go back to secondary to study Geogarphy.

	Atlantic	Pacific
4/6 months	39750	29500
1 year	26000	23250
2 years	21750	21250

Rose in the same period

2010 is from Jun to Aug

2011 is from Jul to Sep

2012 is from Sep to Nov

2013 is from Jul to ??

China Golden week for national day is 1 Oct, does not see the consistency in their arguement.

The rate hikes is mainly from capesize vessels? but when you computed the data you will find that Panamax size also contribute significantly to the increase.

	BCI	BPI	BSI
Yesterday (USD)	36069	14316	11369
1 year ago (USD)	9114	3957	8464
% Increase	295.75%	261.79%	34.32%

They talking about PMI of china as they already focus the wrong area the rise was due to the atlantic transportation.

That is why I am sketical about the report.

ascend88 ( Date: 03-Oct-2013 16:12) Posted:

in every +ve report....its good to have a few -ve ones too....

at least it will bring some sense back to us....

if all reports are super good ...super +ve ...and all buy buy buy call....then i will be very scare...

read and research more into it....

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ascend88
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03-Oct-2013 21:39

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Thats why yzj closed back at 1.135

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ascend88
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03-Oct-2013 21:37

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Thanks bro cheong

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cheongsl
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03-Oct-2013 21:30

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	Atlantic	Pacific
4/6 months	39750	29500
1 year	26000	23250
2 years	21750	21250

	BCI	BPI	BSI
Yesterday (USD)	36069	14316	11369
1 year ago (USD)	9114	3957	8464
% Increase	295.75%	261.79%	34.32%

They talking about PMI of china as they already focus the wrong area the rise was due to the atlantic transportation.

That is why I am sketical about the report.

ascend88 ( Date: 03-Oct-2013 16:12) Posted:

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ascend88
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03-Oct-2013 16:26

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still holding on to 1.13...

we will know who is the poker face....

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ascend88
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03-Oct-2013 16:20

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fundmental is control by the management of company and the overall econmy....

sentiments...is control by ourselves...

ascend88 ( Date: 03-Oct-2013 16:17) Posted:

remember....stock market is not only abt fundamental of the company.....its abt the human sentiments too....

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ascend88
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03-Oct-2013 16:17

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remember....stock market is not only abt fundamental of the company.....its abt the human sentiments too....

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ascend88
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03-Oct-2013 16:12

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WanSiTong
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03-Oct-2013 16:00

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Ya gzijiang N Cosco

WanSiTong
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03-Oct-2013 13:44 User is Online

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Yangzijiang Shipbuilding - Wary of a False Dawn

Written By Stock Fanatic on Thursday, October 3, 2013 |

Sector recovery not convincing. There recent surge in BDI has fuelled rising anticipation for a recovery in the shipping market, and expectations for a return in shipbuilding orders.

We do not see a broadbased recovery for Chinese shipbuilders yet as

(1) rise in BDI was led mainly by rate hikes for capesize vessels,

(2) container freight rates remain weak, and

(3) yard overcapacity issue lingers.

We fear that YZJ?s recent rise in share price may meet with downward pressure when shipping market recovery story disappoints. Downgrade to Sell, SOTP-based TP at SGD0.98.

Shipbuilding prices not likely to rise significantly yet

The new wave of shipbuilding orders is expected to be driven by structural switch to fuel-efficient vessels rather than the need for new capacity. Korean shipbuilders hold the lead for such vessels while competitiveness for Japanese shipbuilders have re-emerged with the lower Yen. Therefore we do not see shipbuilding prices picking up significantly. In comparison to 2008 peak, average price is at least 30% lower currently.

Thus, while there may be some short-term spike in new orders, we still see margin contraction and EPS decline for YZJ?s core shipbuilding business for FY13-15F as higher margin contracts are depleted from orderbook.

YZJ is a still a standout yard

We have no doubt that YZJ stands out among the Chinese shipyards. This view was reinforced after our recent visit to its JNYS and Xinfu yards in Jiangsu, PRC. We witnessed vessel launch of Chinese shipyards? first 10,000teu containership, which is being built by YZJ. This clearly demonstrates its superior expertise relative to many Chinese shipyards. It is building a total of 16 such units for Seaspan which includes an option for 9 more.

But lift in sector valuation level is fragile

We agree YZJ would be the best proxy to ride a shipbuilding recovery cycle, but we disagree that this is the turn. We think that the recent lift in valuation is fragile as it is not supported by future EPS growth with margin decline still in the cards. We argue that order win pickup is still not sufficient to drive EPS growth in the core shipbuilding business for FY13-15F as shipbuilding prices would remain capped. (Read Report)

Source : Maybank Kim Eng Research

shadow ( Date: 03-Oct-2013 09:27) Posted:

Kim Eng Issued Sell Report

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding - Wary of a False Dawn Cut to Sell ($1.135 - TP $0.98, YZJSGD SP, Marine)

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Hawkeye
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03-Oct-2013 15:50

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You guys sound very bias to me. You can not accept any bad buy only good Dangerous. You are in Love with Yangzijiang? Fell in Love??

shadow ( Date: 03-Oct-2013 10:10) Posted:

moneycrow, i agreed..

" KE report on other hand seem bias............."

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shadow
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03-Oct-2013 10:10

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moneycrow, i agreed..

" KE report on other hand seem bias............."

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moneycow
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03-Oct-2013 09:44

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KIM ENG now belongs to Maybank ?

You gotta do your own search for facts and figures...............Order book cannot fake............. writing can twist............

shadow ( Date: 03-Oct-2013 09:39) Posted:

So far from what i gathered at this point

Kim Eng :SELL

DBS, Deutche Bank, CIMB, Barclay, Credit Suisse : BUY CALL

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shadow
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03-Oct-2013 09:39

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So far from what i gathered at this point

Kim Eng :SELL

DBS, Deutche Bank, CIMB, Barclay, Credit Suisse : BUY CALL

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moneycow
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03-Oct-2013 09:37

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A little messy on earlier post...................here is an extract.................

Today?s Focus (yesterday)

 Yangzijiang ? Secured massive orders worth

US$871m reiterate BUY, TP S$1.32

Yangzijiang has secured massive orders worth US$871m

of contracts comprising: i) New orders for four 208k dwt

bulk carriers (with options for two identical vessels) and ii)

Exercise of 13 options including five 82k dwt bulk carriers,

three 64k dwt bulk carriers and five 10k TEU

containerships (Seaspan). The 208k dwt bulk carrier orders

are the first capesize contracts for Yangzijiang, reinforcing

company?s strategy to move up the value chain to build

more sophisticated vessels. Prior to this, the largest bulk

carrier Yangzijiang undertook was 95k dwt panamax. The

contract prices seem in line with Clarkson?s average

newbuilding prices for respective vessels. We understand

the payment term varies but collection prior to delivery is

at least 30%.

These new orders have lifted Yangzijiang?s YTD wins from

US$1.22bn to US$2.10bn, outpaced our expectations of

US$2bn this year. We raise FY13 order win assumption to

US$2.5bn in anticipation of more options exercising in the

coming months. Yangzijiang has remaining 28 options

worth US$1.36bn consist of 11 containerships worth

US$0.85bn and 17 multi-purpose bulk carriers worth

US$0.51bn. Our FY13-15F forecast are largely intact as

the additional order wins are expected to contribute more

to FY16 earnings. These latest 17 orders are scheduled for

delivery in 2015-2016. Reiterate BUY with unchanged

target price of S$1.32.

moneycow ( Date: 03-Oct-2013 09:34) Posted:

Who to trust ? Brokerage house like DBS vickers is more neutral - KE report on other hand seem bias.............

My personal opinion nia :)

--------------

Today?s Focus  Hi-P ? Uncertainty rising, downgrade to HOLD, TP cut to S$0.65  Yangzijiang ? Secured massive orders worth US$871m reiterate BUY, TP S$1.32 We see uncertainty rising for Hi-P. Customer demand is falling short on weaker than expected reception to 5C iPhones and rising stockpiles. We expect 3Q to be on track but momentum is likely to fizzle out, thus weakening the outlook for 4Q and even FY14. Downgrade to HOLD, TP cut to S$0.65 (Prev S$ 0.97). Yangzijiang has secured massive orders worth US$871m of contracts comprising: i) New orders for four 208k dwt bulk carriers (with options for two identical vessels) and ii) Exercise of 13 options including five 82k dwt bulk carriers, three 64k dwt bulk carriers and five 10k TEU containerships (Seaspan). The 208k dwt bulk carrier orders are the first capesize contracts for Yangzijiang, reinforcing company?s strategy to move up the value chain to build more sophisticated vessels. Prior to this, the largest bulk carrier Yangzijiang undertook was 95k dwt panamax. The contract prices seem in line with Clarkson?s average newbuilding prices for respective vessels. We understand the payment term varies but collection prior to delivery is at least 30%. These new orders have lifted Yangzijiang?s YTD wins from US$1.22bn to US$2.10bn, outpaced our expectations of US$2bn this year. We raise FY13 order win assumption to US$2.5bn in anticipation of more options exercising in the coming months. Yangzijiang has remaining 28 options worth US$1.36bn consist of 11 containerships worth US$0.85bn and 17 multi-purpose bulk carriers worth US$0.51bn. Our FY13-15F forecast are largely intact as the additional order wins are expected to contribute more to FY16 earnings. These latest 17 orders are scheduled for delivery in 2015-2016. Reiterate BUY with unchanged target price of S$1.32.

shadow ( Date: 03-Oct-2013 09:27) Posted:

Kim Eng Issued Sell Report

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding - Wary of a False Dawn Cut to Sell ($1.135 - TP $0.98, YZJSGD SP, Marine)

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xiaoting
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03-Oct-2013 09:35

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OCBC issued hold report.

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