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Vard Holdings
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
29-Aug-2013 13:55
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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What! | ||
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Peter_Pan
Supreme |
29-Aug-2013 13:42
Yells: "did you order dunkin' donuts" |
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Vard! | ||
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Peter_Pan
Supreme |
29-Aug-2013 10:37
Yells: "did you order dunkin' donuts" |
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Likely they have reversed their algos to add on sell. | ||
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Peter_Pan
Supreme |
29-Aug-2013 10:32
Yells: "did you order dunkin' donuts" |
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Foreign brokerages are inside controlling | ||
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Peter_Pan
Supreme |
29-Aug-2013 10:26
Yells: "did you order dunkin' donuts" |
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Did some heavy accumulation yesterday. | ||
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WanSiTong
Master |
29-Aug-2013 10:22
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This black horse stand out from the Red yesterday! Today can chiong faster!!? |
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Peter_Pan
Supreme |
29-Aug-2013 09:55
Yells: "did you order dunkin' donuts" |
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Coming back to life. | ||
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WanSiTong
Master |
28-Aug-2013 10:45
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Vard Holdings ST: short term rebound
Trading Central | 2013-08-27 23:57:00
Our preference: short term rebound. Our pivot point is at 0.792. Our preference: short term rebound. Alternative scenario: the downside breakout of 0.792 would call for 0.739 and 0.706. Comment: the RSI is above 50. The MACD is negative and above its signal line. The MACD must break above its zero level to call for further upside. Moreover, the share stands below its 20 and 50 day MA (respectively at 0.85 and 0.89). Supports and resistances: 1.004 * 0.97 ** 0.937 0.84 last 0.814 0.792 ** 0.739 * C 
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WanSiTong
Master |
28-Aug-2013 09:40
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Vard Well Done! Aaaaa...........! Behind there is no horse running!!? |
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Peter_Pan
Supreme |
27-Aug-2013 17:10
Yells: "did you order dunkin' donuts" |
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This one pattern pattern can earn a bit take first. A few times add together a lot leh. | ||
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heavenknow
Member |
27-Aug-2013 16:57
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Wait for awhile ba...maybe it want to go 0.815 there play awhile before visiting 0.9 | ||
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Peter_Pan
Supreme |
27-Aug-2013 16:39
Yells: "did you order dunkin' donuts" |
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Out already.. | ||
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Peter_Pan
Supreme |
27-Aug-2013 14:07
Yells: "did you order dunkin' donuts" |
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Entered 0.84. gd luck. dyodd. | ||
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Vardprop
Member |
27-Aug-2013 13:44
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Will vard holdings pay a dividend this year after accounting for its cash woes still? | ||
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MtFaber
Member |
27-Aug-2013 13:07
Yells: "PRICE may not equal VALUE" |
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This type of selling means somebody knows something we don't! |
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kennych
Member |
27-Aug-2013 12:37
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Looks like due to widespread down sentiment today
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MtFaber
Member |
27-Aug-2013 12:32
Yells: "PRICE may not equal VALUE" |
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0.885 looks like a very tough resistance to break. Pull back doesn't look good technically. Brazilian's yard problem or the Italian government uncertainty causing the plunge? Technically doesn't look promising. |
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TinyPotato
Member |
26-Aug-2013 12:33
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Latest price target by OSK-DMG (26 / 08 / 2013) Price Target - $1.10 Price Call - Hold Good Luck to All. DYODD. |
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ozone2002
Supreme |
26-Aug-2013 10:03
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Time: 9:32AM Exchange: SGX Stock: Vard Holdings(MS7) Signal: Bullish MACD Centerline Crossover Last Done: $0.885 |
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SFGuyRuleZ
Veteran |
25-Aug-2013 19:02
Yells: "You are your own master.." |
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Vard's share price " appears" to be tightly controlled. Definitely, it is on it's path to recovery but until the fund managers or institutional investors are back from their summer holidays, buying interest is " suppressed" and not quite likely to see a big surge in share price yet. There is only 1 more week remaining for the month of August. Perhaps next week or next month, we may see greater movements in the share price. Just my thought.. Interestingly, since start of last year 2012, yard Niteroi has been facing overload conditions. 2 vessels were delivered from yard Niteroi last year and also with delays. EBITDA margin however was at ~13%, only until last Q of FY2012 and 1st Q of FY2013 that EBITDA margins were further affected to be ~11%. Delays in delivery is therefore not a main contributing factor to the weak margins stemming from Niteroi yard. The main issue has to lie with the costs of construction, a very large part attributed to subcontracting of the hull construction, especially when the contract is based on a cost-plus basis, meaning expenses are hard to estimate and may overrun if not monitored closely. Hence in 2nd Q 2013, the underestimated subcontract cost, negative goodwill write-down of Niteroi, revised estimates of start-up costs in Yard Promar all weigh in to adversely affect it's EBITDA margin. There appears to be a consensus estimate EBITDA margin of ~7.7% for the remaining quarters this financial year. If results released for 3rd Q is better, we may see a greater recovery of the share price, but if lower, we may see another plunge due to the fact that this counter reacts heavily to negative news. On a personal level, I estimate next Q's EBIDTA to be at least 10%, given the fact that since last year with the same issues stemming from Niteroi and they can still maintain their margins at 11~13%. Furthermore, there is no more outsourcing of hull construction for the vessels to be delivered from Niteori. There are however new risks stemming from start-up and staff development costs for Yard Promar. 2 of the hulls to be delivered to Yard Promar are also outsourced though they don't face any delays. 3rd Q results would show signs of whether Vard has recovered from the Niteroi woes. My only fear is that if it is still bad, investors will once more panic sell, even though in the long term, Vard will definitely recover back to it's strong fundamentals and earnings as before. Yard Niteroi is a bad design in the sense that it is too small to accommodate proper construction of larger vessels, worsened by the fact that it is also relatively inaccessible (as reported from Upstream). As we can see from the recently secured contracts, vessels to be built in Brazil are now to be built in Yard Promar instead. Yard Niteroi may still accomodate the construction of smaller vessels and probably wouldn't have any negative effect on the profit margins. If in the worse case, yard Niteroi still contribute to negative contribution margin, the yard can be closed down once and for all and disposed instead, protecting the overall margins from other geographical areas. Until the last vessel secured for Niteroi in previous contracts is delivered, overall EBITDA margin should be around ~12% to 14%. Disclaimer: Above is just my own analysis based on paper for sharing purposes. Figures mentioned are also based on my own belief and judgement for the company. One should always do his/her own due diligence before investing/trading. Your money, your call.. |
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