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Vard Holdings
yokoosi
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15-May-2013 16:53     
 
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 Alert Admin 		HUAT AH !!!!!!! No Horse Run
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WanSiTong
Master
15-May-2013 16:50     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Last done $1.125 still cheong buoy kaw !!
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ozone2002
Supreme
15-May-2013 16:33     
 
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i'm more interested in capital gains than dividends.. :)
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MtFaber
Member
15-May-2013 16:33     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Massively oversold and over shorted!
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francisd
Veteran
15-May-2013 16:28     
 
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How about DIVIDEND guideline to the shareholders. 

ONLY LIP SERVICE.

ozone2002      ( Date: 15-May-2013 14:59) Posted:

Quality yard at bargain price (DBS)

•

but EBITDA margins still at low levels – in line1Q13 core earnings saw 25% sequential improvement

•

seen for AHTS marketRobust outlook for subsea and signs of improvement

•

end-FY13, expect EBITDA margins to improve next yearOperating issues in Brazil should be largely resolved by

•

FY13/14F earnings by 4/6%Maintain BUY TP revised down to S$1.46 as we trim

Highlights

Decent execution in 1Q13.

+25% q-o-q) was in line with our expectations, and would have

been higher if not for a NOK20m net forex loss. Gross margin

normalized to 33.6% (vs. 35.7% in FY12) and EBITDA margin came

in as expected at a low 11.1% (vs. 13.8% in 9M12 and 19% in

FY11), impacted by the persistent operational issues at the Niteroi

yard in Brazil and temporary lower utilisation at the Vietnam yard.Core earnings of NOK188m (-30% y-oy

Our View

Subsea underpins positive outlook for order wins

1Q13 with an orderbook of NOK15.5bn, and has secured close to

NOK3.8bn worth of new orders YTD in FY13, including high value

OSCVs. Outlook for the subsea construction vessel segment remains

robust, and management also notes improvements in AHTS spot

charter rates. Vard remains in the running for Petrobras pipelay

support vessel orders. Demand for larger PSVs continues to be

sluggish though. While OSCV order wins are typically higher in value,

they tend to be lumpy, hence we choose to err on the conservative

side and lower our FY13/14 order win forecasts to NOK11bn/ NOK

13bn from NOK12.5bn/ NOK 14bn previously. Accordingly, we trim

our FY13/14F earnings estimates by 4/6%.. Vard ended

Expect recovery in FY14

of a drag by the end of FY13, and as a result, EBITDA margins are

expected to recover in FY14 by about 1.5ppts from 1Q13 levels. The

other new yard in Brazil is almost 85% complete, and steel cutting

for the LPG carrier orderbook will start from July onwards. Delivery

schedule for these vessels are still on track.. The issues at the Niteroi yard will be less

Recommendation

Trading at 6.5x PE, good entry point

earnings, our TP is lowered to S$1.46, still pegged at 9x FY13PE.

Maintain BUY as Vard remains a key proxy to the buoyant subsea

market, and we believe the weak share price has reflects the

uncertainties (e.g. change in dividend policy) following the entry of

Fincantieri, as well as the possibility of muted earnings growth in

FY13.. In line with the cut in
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luketoh
Senior
15-May-2013 16:21     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Vard Vard cheong ah!!!!
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ozone2002
Supreme
15-May-2013 14:59     
 
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Quality yard at bargain price (DBS)

•

but EBITDA margins still at low levels – in line1Q13 core earnings saw 25% sequential improvement

•

seen for AHTS marketRobust outlook for subsea and signs of improvement

•

end-FY13, expect EBITDA margins to improve next yearOperating issues in Brazil should be largely resolved by

•

FY13/14F earnings by 4/6%Maintain BUY TP revised down to S$1.46 as we trim

Highlights

Decent execution in 1Q13.

+25% q-o-q) was in line with our expectations, and would have

been higher if not for a NOK20m net forex loss. Gross margin

normalized to 33.6% (vs. 35.7% in FY12) and EBITDA margin came

in as expected at a low 11.1% (vs. 13.8% in 9M12 and 19% in

FY11), impacted by the persistent operational issues at the Niteroi

yard in Brazil and temporary lower utilisation at the Vietnam yard.Core earnings of NOK188m (-30% y-oy

Our View

Subsea underpins positive outlook for order wins

1Q13 with an orderbook of NOK15.5bn, and has secured close to

NOK3.8bn worth of new orders YTD in FY13, including high value

OSCVs. Outlook for the subsea construction vessel segment remains

robust, and management also notes improvements in AHTS spot

charter rates. Vard remains in the running for Petrobras pipelay

support vessel orders. Demand for larger PSVs continues to be

sluggish though. While OSCV order wins are typically higher in value,

they tend to be lumpy, hence we choose to err on the conservative

side and lower our FY13/14 order win forecasts to NOK11bn/ NOK

13bn from NOK12.5bn/ NOK 14bn previously. Accordingly, we trim

our FY13/14F earnings estimates by 4/6%.. Vard ended

Expect recovery in FY14

of a drag by the end of FY13, and as a result, EBITDA margins are

expected to recover in FY14 by about 1.5ppts from 1Q13 levels. The

other new yard in Brazil is almost 85% complete, and steel cutting

for the LPG carrier orderbook will start from July onwards. Delivery

schedule for these vessels are still on track.. The issues at the Niteroi yard will be less

Recommendation

Trading at 6.5x PE, good entry point

earnings, our TP is lowered to S$1.46, still pegged at 9x FY13PE.

Maintain BUY as Vard remains a key proxy to the buoyant subsea

market, and we believe the weak share price has reflects the

uncertainties (e.g. change in dividend policy) following the entry of

Fincantieri, as well as the possibility of muted earnings growth in

FY13.. In line with the cut in

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CapitalVia
Member
15-May-2013 14:57     
 
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 Alert Admin 		i am elling it..anyone wann to buys this??????
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ozone2002
Supreme
15-May-2013 14:55     
 
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we have lift off!! gd luck dyodd

UOB CHART GENIE

Time: 2:32PM
Exchange: SGX
Stock: Vard Holdings(MS7)

Signal: Resistance - Breakout with High Volume

Last Done: $1.095
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shareflux
Member
15-May-2013 12:38     
 
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GYY

did you look at the photograph of the new yard at Promar? From the photo can see the structures are all up. i am salivating at the prospect that this new yard will come into production in June 2013...

the robotic production line is really impressive. Didn't know shipyard use robotic arm to assemble ships...


if you only read one company result, make it Vard... the visual are easy to understand and speaks volume about the company.

  22 vessels in 2012, delivered 5. 19 so far this year... impressive line up of work for the year.

By end of this year, hopefully the last vessel from the old Brazil yard will be completed. The problem at the old yard is really a drag on the bottom line.

On a cautious mood, VARD should look forward to better outlook ahead. at EPS of 16cts and 30% of profit payout as dividend, should be looking at at least 4.8cts of dividend in August. At ytd price of $1.06, this work out to be 4.5%, not too shabby by any count.
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guoyanyunyan
Elite
15-May-2013 12:03     
 
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  Outlook
  • Optimistic outlook for subsea support and construction vessels
    • Project inquiries across a broad range of vessel sizes, specifications, and geographical markets
  • Promising spot rates for AHTS seen recently, but not yet translating into new building activity
  • PSV market sluggish, but demand for individual highly specialized vessels with innovative features, e.g. recent order with advanced rescue features
  • Highly competitive market, but leading-edge technology a differentiator that secures access to new orders
  • Major investment projects in Romania aimed at securing long-term competitiveness in Europe investments in Vietnam to take on larger and more complex projects there
  • Brazil operations in Niterói expected to stabilize by year-end, and new shipyard Vard Promar on track to start operations by end June 2013 


... extract from 1Q 2013 Results Presentation....
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guoyanyunyan
Elite
15-May-2013 11:43     
 
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Vard Holdings - Looking More Attractive



Author: kimeng     |     Publish date: Wed, 15 May 11:08


Premium OSV builder at deep discount. We like Vard for its leadership position in the premium OSV market. Recent sell-down is unwarranted and we believe that stronger-than-expected order wins this year would drive positive re-rating. We raise our FY13F order win forecast from NOK9.7b to NOK11.5b. At current valuations, despite our below-market FY13F forecast, the stock would be trading at only 7.2x PER. Maintain Buy with TP of SGD1.65.

Results within our expectations. 1Q13 revenue of NOK2.7b (-2% YoY, +9% QoQ) and net profit of NOK188m (-30% YoY, +52% QoQ) were within our expectations but below consensus. Net profit makes up 23% of our FY13F forecast, which was the lowest in the street. 1Q13 EBITDA margin fell to 11.1% (4Q12:11.4%, 1Q12:14.0%) due to higher cost in Brazil. We expect consensus to cut FY13F earnings forecast, but we point out that current year earnings is the repercussion of weakened ordering activities from 2H12 and Niteroi yard issues. These issues have been flagged earlier and should have been anticipated.

Brazil issues to stabilise by end-2013. There are 5 more vessels to be delivered from Niteroi yard, of which one would be delivered by next week. While higher cost has dragged down overall group profitability, we estimate the effect to be restricted to only 1-2 ppts in EBITDA margins. Margins also appears to have stabilised on a QoQ basis. Actions have been taken to reorganise production and reduce indirect cost and we should expect higher margins in FY14F vis-à-vis FY13F.

Positive order win outlook. Net orderbook stood at NOK15.5b (46 vessels) as at end 1Q13 and we estimate YTD order wins at NOK3.7b. Vard reiterated its optimistic outlook in order wins this year for OSCVs. We raise FY13F order win expectations from NOK9.7b to NOK11.5b.

Reiterate Buy, stock oversold. Current valuations are unjustifiably low for a premium OSV builder with ROE in excess of 20%, strong recovery growth and attractive dividend yield of 5-6%. Reiterate Buy with TP of SGD1.65, pegged to 9x PER on average FY13-15F EPS. Marginal change to TP due to higher order wins assumption and NOK/SGD exchange rate adjustments.
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ozone2002
Supreme
15-May-2013 10:00     
 
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Not as bad as feared (CIMB)

Akin to a Brazilian gold rush, Petrobras's bountiful requirements have attracted waves of profiteers. But in the end, it was the picks and shovels, and not the miners, who struck it rich. 1Q margins were crimped due to an overheated Brazilian suppliers’ market. However, the margin squeeze was not as bad as feared.

At 20% of our FY13 numbers, 1Q core earnings were 19% below our expectation and 13% below consensus due to lower-than-expected margins. We cut our FY13-15 EPS by 10-12% on lower margins. We upgrade the stock to Outperform from Trading Buy as recent share price weakness has priced in the worst. We also nudge up our target price, still based on 1 s.d. above its historical forward P/E mean (9x CY14). Catalysts could come from stronger margins and orders.

Not as bad as feared

1Q core earnings dropped 25% yoy due to a margin squeeze. The EBITDA margin decreased by 2.9% pts yoy to 11.1% due to ongoing sub-contracting bottlenecks in Brazil and start-up costs from its new Promar yard. Deliveries of the Brazilian-built vessels have been delayed, resulting in additional penalties. However, we note that Brazilian cost overruns have been flagged and accrued since 2Q12 results (Vard achieved a 13.2% EBITDA margin for FY12). Hence, the likelihood of an earnings shock is low, in our view.

Margins to improve in FY14

With four of the five Brazilian vessels set to be delivered by 1Q14, margin pressures should ease in FY14. We now expect Vard to achieve an 11.5% EBITDA margin for FY14 (previously 12%), keeping in mind that improvements could also stem from scaling of the learning curve for the Transpetro orders as well as investment initiatives for Romanian and Vietnam yards. We also expect Vard to achieve an 11% EBITDA margin for FY13 (previously 12%), leading to our earnings cut.

World class OSV-builder at a bargain

Vard trades at 7.1x CY14 P/E and offers a 4.5% dividend yield (highest among small-mid-cap O& M stocks).

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SFGuyRuleZ
Veteran
15-May-2013 09:22     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Just to add on, the EPS reflected in the latest results is only for a quarter of the year. Assuming that the dividends paid out this year is based on 2012's earnings, the EPS for 2012 is $0.158, and 30% of 0.158 would be approximately 4.7 cents.

InvestNotTrade      ( Date: 15-May-2013 09:07) Posted:

EPS is 3.4 Singapore cents
16cents is in NOK

shareflux      ( Date: 15-May-2013 07:07) Posted:

If buying at current price to collect the dividend in August, the following formula can be used. Using the current EPS of 16 cents, a dividend comprising of 30% of profit should work out to 4.8 cents. At yesterday closing price of $1.06 it works out to be 4.5% which is not too shabby.
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TinyPotato
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15-May-2013 09:19     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Multiple single trades (Buying) with tx amount more than $100K, hope it's a good signal & not lose steam at the end of the day. Cheers.
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Aberdeen123
Senior
15-May-2013 09:15     
 
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US oil prices below US$70 could stem drilling: EIA head


Oil producers in the United States could slow drilling if prices drop below US$70 a barrel, which would make such operations uneconomical, the head of the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday.

US oil production is at its highest level in 20 years due to extraction from shale deposits by hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, and horizontal drilling.

But the cost of extracting these unconventional resources could make drilling too expensive should prices slump, EIA administrator Adam Sieminski told a conference in New York.

" Prices somewhere down to the US$70 to US$80 per barrel level are sufficient to keep work going, but below those levels we begin to see a drop off," Mr Sieminski said.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This is one of the catalyst for O & G stocks.
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WanSiTong
Master
15-May-2013 09:14     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Last done $1.085  Wa
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InvestNotTrade
Member
15-May-2013 09:07     
 
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 Alert Admin 		EPS is 3.4 Singapore cents
16cents is in NOK

shareflux      ( Date: 15-May-2013 07:07) Posted:

If buying at current price to collect the dividend in August, the following formula can be used. Using the current EPS of 16 cents, a dividend comprising of 30% of profit should work out to 4.8 cents. At yesterday closing price of $1.06 it works out to be 4.5% which is not too shabby.
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Tomique
Master
15-May-2013 07:53     
 
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Many ship builders are doing well, but many are so so and still there are some who slagging in sluggish business. 

Connection in all businesses is very important.   The better connected always do better.   Wahahaha! 
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shareflux
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15-May-2013 07:07     
 
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 Alert Admin 		If buying at current price to collect the dividend in August, the following formula can be used. Using the current EPS of 16 cents, a dividend comprising of 30% of profit should work out to 4.8 cents. At yesterday closing price of $1.06 it works out to be 4.5% which is not too shabby.
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