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STXOSV

srichipan
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26-Jan-2013 16:13

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Short it down to 0.80. And buy back below 1.00. So when the Italian company make the compulsory offer of 1.2, we will make money? Is that what you meant?

ruanlai ( Date: 26-Jan-2013 15:58) Posted:

SHORT is the only action to use to teach the GO is lesson, united we short this counter down to below 80cents and then buy back to sell it to the GO at 1.12......

SHORT SHORT SHORT.....no regret.....to short

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ruanlai
Master

26-Jan-2013 15:58

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cheerstan2002
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26-Jan-2013 13:30

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Looking at all the analysts' report:

The worst case scenario is still neutral of a price of 1.47 by CIMB

The best case is a fantastic price of 2.05 by OSK DMG

Both TP are above present trading price and above all when the mkt opens it was 1.25 and within minutes it hugh buying vol to 1.28 and now hovering around 1.275 with good buying vol ...

So it is limited downside and if all of us stick to our unity and hold it on till the mandatory general offer period is over ... it will zoom up to to close the gap and then it will move on again after teh overhang is over ...

Cheers to all who have vested .... Smiley

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NoMoney
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26-Jan-2013 13:22

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wow luckly i just my last bullet to avg down my noble hope nv make the wrong move

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cheerstan2002
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26-Jan-2013 13:22

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Here are some snippets of what the various analysts had to say:

Jason Saw of OSK DMG,

“… the change in major shareholder could remove the overhang on the stock and lead to re-rating of the stock.”

Jason’s Call: BUY, with target price of $2.05

However, for this to happen, Saw assumes that Fincantieri will not be able to get a full acceptance of a mandatory general offer. A mandatory general offer has to be made by Fincantieri for the remaining shares of STX OSV after it acquires more than 50 percent of the listed counter. The reason for Fincantieri not attaining full acceptance of its general offer is shared by Jeremy Thia of DBS Vickers, he wrote,

“At $1.22/share, we believe the offer price is not compelling. (The price) translates to around 6.5x Price/Earnings ratio. As such, we believe this is unlikely to result in the GO being successful.”

Also thrown into the whole mix is US hedge fund, Och-Ziff Capital Management, which owns a 12 percent stake in STX OSV. Och-Ziff Capital previously bought the stake for $1.33/share. It thus seems highly unlikely that Och-Ziff Capital will be contented with letting its stake go for anything less than its cost price.

With that in mind, Thia continues,

“We like STX OSV for its market leading position as a builder/designer of large, complex and highly customised OSVs (offshore vessels), its strong execution track record, and as a key proxy (representation) of the buoyant subsea market.”

Jeremy’s Call: BUY, with target price of $2

Despite these glowing recommendations, Chia Jiunyang and Low Pei Han of OCBC feel that investors should take into consideration other risks that can be associated with this deal. They write,

“Other associated risks include i) Fincantieri’s unproven track record in managing offshore business (they are primarily in the cruise shipbuilding business) ii) possible changes to STX OSV’s business model (Fincantieri has said it has no current intentions of making any major changes to STX OSV) and iii)vulnerability to political interference (Fincantieri is ultimately owned by the Italy government).”

Chia and Low’s call: BUY, with target price of $1.52

Not everyone is coming out with a call yet though, Kenneth Ng at CIMB is sticking to his guns for the time being and hoping for more details to be out before he “revisits” the stock. He maintains that,

“… (STX OSV)’s fundamentals could eventually provide some support at $1.30-$1.40.”

Which by the way, Kenneth mentions, is comparable to the average price-earnings ratios of smaller SGX-listed offshore vessel builders.

Kenneth’s call: NEUTRAL, with target price of $1.47

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Peter_Pan
Supreme

26-Jan-2013 13:01

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Yells: "did you order dunkin' donuts"

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Reject STX OSV Offer At $1.22
January 24th, 2013 by Calvin Yeo
As you all know, yesterday STX OSV requested for a trading halt after which they announced that the Fincantieri has completed the acquisition of 50.75% stake of STX OSV. As part of the takeover rules, it is required to extend its offer of $1.22 to exisiting shareholders as well.
I encourage all of you to reject the offer as it is simply to low in my opinion. All the research reports have predicted the offer will be rejected, so do remember to do your part as well. The price according to the announcement is
(i) a discount of approximately 12.9 per cent. to the last traded price of S$1.400 per Share as quoted on the SGX-ST on 20 December 2012, being the last trading day of the Shares on the SGX-ST preceding the Pre-Conditional Announcement Date and
(ii) a discount of approximately 17.5 per cent. to the three-month volume-weighted average price (“VWAP”) of S$1.478 per Share, being the VWAP for the threemonth period prior to, and inclusive of the last trading day of the Shares on the SGX-ST preceding the Pre-Conditional Announcement Date.
I seldom see general offers where the price is at a discount to last traded price and weighted average price.
At $1.22, STX OSV is only valued at 4.1x 2011 Earnings and 6.5x 2012 Estimated Earnings which is way too low.
Also, my valuation of STX OSV stand at about $1.75 while most research reports have it much higher than the offer price as well.
Macquarie Research – $1.82
Citi – $1.70
CIMB – $1.47
I have entered additional lots as well as the maximum downside is $1.22 or about 3.9% from current price.

http://www.investinpassiveincome.com/reject-stx-osv-offer-at-1-22/

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ysh2006
Senior

26-Jan-2013 11:12

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This stock its mother got no money, no better how good ,the mother need to sell the son away. Just like when someone bankrupt his wealth belongings need to be taken away by debtors no better how good that thing is.....I still remembered last time MBF Global Singapore side is doing well but still need to close shop because it mother company got into troubles....

upnowhere ( Date: 26-Jan-2013 10:55) Posted:

Ya.. Stock shld be investment not betting.. example.. you invest in this counter and hold for long term get dividend, then counter got suspended or delisted before that annual report sound good. Well... your intention is to invest but stock market in reality turn in to betting table.

srichipan ( Date: 26-Jan-2013 10:43) Posted:

Stocks is NEVER a betting game. People with this kind of thinking will end up losing money. Please do not buy if you don't understand what you are buying. Btw this post got nothing to do with This counte

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upnowhere
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26-Jan-2013 10:55

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Yells: "Just want to earn a bit pocket $$$"

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srichipan ( Date: 26-Jan-2013 10:43) Posted:

Rokawa ( Date: 25-Jan-2013 12:25) Posted:

stocks is not a betting game.

its how u approach stocks that define into gambling or investing.

u dont buy assets in hope that it appreciate to make money. capital appreciation is just a bonus.

the asset u buy should be able to generate income without share price fluctuations

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srichipan
Master

26-Jan-2013 10:43

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Rokawa ( Date: 25-Jan-2013 12:25) Posted:

New123 ( Date: 25-Jan-2013 11:53) Posted:

playing stock is a betting game. bet it right it will go up otherwise just hv to wait and see how the mkt react. this stock will not move much unless there are some good news(full yr result gd + dividend) or after the 28 days offered expired and the low take up rate will set the direction for the price to head higher. Let's wait for the outcome ...

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kamyip
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26-Jan-2013 10:41

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the offer is 1.22 versus upside of 1.555. The risk is worth taking. I am on board!

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jamesng
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26-Jan-2013 10:08

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1.24 must hold.....else....

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ethanetoh
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26-Jan-2013 09:49

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the 28days are calendar days or woking days?

New123 ( Date: 25-Jan-2013 11:53) Posted:

ongahhuat888 ( Date: 25-Jan-2013 11:23) Posted:

Big rally!!!????? Bullshit!!!

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zacaroo
Member

25-Jan-2013 16:13

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disappointing thought today is the day

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New123
Elite

25-Jan-2013 12:28

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hopefully with gd profit margin that will boost their net profit and also lead to good dividend + capital appreciation.

Rokawa ( Date: 25-Jan-2013 12:25) Posted:

New123 ( Date: 25-Jan-2013 11:53) Posted:

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Rokawa
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25-Jan-2013 12:25

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New123 ( Date: 25-Jan-2013 11:53) Posted:

ongahhuat888 ( Date: 25-Jan-2013 11:23) Posted:

Big rally!!!????? Bullshit!!!

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ruanlai
Master

25-Jan-2013 12:18

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SHORT

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New123
Elite

25-Jan-2013 11:53

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ongahhuat888 ( Date: 25-Jan-2013 11:23) Posted:

Big rally!!!????? Bullshit!!!!

Peter_Pan ( Date: 22-Jan-2013 12:23) Posted:

Big rally.

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ongahhuat888
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25-Jan-2013 11:23

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Big rally!!!????? Bullshit!!!!

Peter_Pan ( Date: 22-Jan-2013 12:23) Posted:

Big rally.

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ongahhuat888
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25-Jan-2013 11:13

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This has been talking for so long ago...post same thing again n again. Please talk something new lah

ksloi1 ( Date: 24-Jan-2013 22:47) Posted:

The other investor , OZ , is holding 12% of the share . OZ bought at 1.33 , refer to attached

http://singaporestockmarket.wordpress.com/category/stx-osv-ms7/

Chances of delisting is slim , reason being that

1) Unless OZ willing to sell at loss to Fincantieri

2) Even if OZ took up the offer at 1.22 , Fincantieri only have approx 63% on hand , still around 35% floating in the market, holding by retail investors

3) When Fincantieri send out the first letter to retail investors in order to get more shares at 1.22 to achieve > 90%, retail investors has no risk at all by rejecting the offer at this stage . If Fincantieri indeed obtained more than 90% , Fincantieri will send out another letter to offer at 1.22 as per Securities Act. Hence, no harm and no risk for the retail investors to hold on to the shares after receiving the 1st letter of offer from Fincantieri . In addition, most of the retail investors are getting the share at the price > 1.22 , hence , the chances of the rejection are high.

4) If most of the retail investors hold on to the shares , Fincantieri would not be able to get > 90% and the stock will remain listed.

5) Another factor to watch is that dividend is coming on the way by referring to the dividend payout history , typically the ex-date for dividend falls on Apr.

6) The balance sheet is very healthy and I believe the stock will remain listed and back to its fair value after all is settled.

Disclaimer : trade with your own analysis and research , an at your own risk.

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ongahhuat888
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25-Jan-2013 11:04

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Big rally???? Bullshit!!!!

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