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Uptrending of LMA
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Novocaine
Veteran |
04-Apr-2007 18:42
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Dun worry la hikitty..it should be a healthy consolidation..the short term punters or contraians are taking profit and making a quick buck..long term wise should be allright.. :) |
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hikitty
Master |
04-Apr-2007 18:01
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Hi Novocaine Hope others QUICKLY see that LMA is undervalued and mop up all those shares @ below IPO price. Once they dry up, LMA shd recover. Without the support of the masses, LMA will remain as "lethargic" as any other shares. Imagine, it dipped today after recovering for a short while when most other shares which are way above IPO prices are moving north or holding firm - can't understand why. |
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Novocaine
Veteran |
04-Apr-2007 17:34
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Well..LMA is a good and fundamentally sound company..its only good that others have not seen the value in them yet..allows small fries like me for example to nibble and hopefully profit later when their value soars.. :) |
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Novocaine
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04-Apr-2007 17:29
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I am no TA expert but i do believe a trend reversal has taken place.. And company has recently stated confidence in earnings upgrade.. And with more protection for their products via patent reinforcement I see good prospects for the future..Should be a dollar company not a penny stock..very undervalued in my opinion.. |
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hikitty
Master |
04-Apr-2007 17:27
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Thanks for sharing your learned opinion. Shocking that, and just can't understand why LMA shares have been below its IPO price for some time, compared to smaller companies with weak fundamentals. . |
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Novocaine
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04-Apr-2007 17:15
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well..my take is LMA has bottomed out and i might be wrong as i am not an expert but I do believe that a trend reversal has taken place and LMA should be uptrending from here on..and this is supported by both company share buy backs and highlighted by management confidence in company as seen by majority of them buying up LMA in the open market recently.. |
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hikitty
Master |
04-Apr-2007 15:58
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Hi Novocaine Sorry. The subject shd be LMA, not GV. LMA has been running on the spot and seem to have just turned around. What is your take? |
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hikitty
Master |
04-Apr-2007 15:55
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Hi Novocaine How long more must investors run before GV breasts the finishing line? Until all operators and investors lose their breath and die of heart seizure? GV has been running on the spot for such a long time. Any FA or TA specialist care to comment on the possible time frame for a break out? The charts seem to reflect that it shd turn around soon? |
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Novocaine
Veteran |
04-Apr-2007 13:42
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LMA looks good in long run..should hit one dollar and beyond in long term..just MHO.. :) |
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hikitty
Master |
02-Apr-2007 10:23
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Time to take a look at LMA as the shares are value for money.. Company won't wind up for sure, unlike other companies which have been in the red for some time. |
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hikitty
Master |
02-Apr-2007 09:14
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Hi Hulumas At least you have more confidence now in LMA as a company. At least the fund mangers and operators will now sit up and take a look at LMA. It isn't a junk company, is it? |
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Hulumas
Supreme |
01-Apr-2007 17:11
Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!" |
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Dear Novocaine, I agree with you. I won't sell mine not untill the price reachs Sgd. 1.00 or above!! |
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hikitty
Master |
31-Mar-2007 18:06
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Thanks Novocaine for putting up the posting. Hope investors will buy LMA , not daily contra players (no money to pay,lah) |
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Novocaine
Veteran |
31-Mar-2007 17:57
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The OCBC report..sorry very big la..tink got some errors posting.. Also Dow Jones reports that in a recent interview management states confidence in earnings upgrade due to expansion and new products introduction. And this is not taking into account the millions of damages expected from the case against Ambu and the effects of the patent reinforcement in protecting their products.. So I think its time this counter move back towards its IPO price and beyond.. |
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Novocaine
Veteran |
31-Mar-2007 17:54
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MITA No. 033/06/2006 Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this document. SINGAPORE Company ReportKelly Chia (65) 6531 9817 e-mail: kelly@ocbc-research.com 30 March 2007 Initiating Coverage BUY S$0.56 Fair Value: S$0.80 Stock Code: Reuters: LMAI.SI Bloomberg: LMA SP Event: Initiate Coverage General Data Issued Capital (m) 581 Mkt Cap (S$m/US$m) 328/216 Major Shareholder Venner Capital (32.1%) Free Float (%) 55% NAV per share (US$) 0.126 Daily Vol 3-mth (?000) 1,596 52Wk High (S$) 0.940 52Wk Low (S$) 0.515 Market leading yet undervalued at about US$4.5m/quarter and it has a healthy cash balance of US$28m with no debt. LMA trades at an unwarranted 78% discount of 8.5x PER when compared to its comparable medical peers' average of 38.9x PER. Admittedly, its present main business of laryngeal masks is not breaking headline news but it continues to generate strong clinician end-user conversion to its products and repeated loyalty. Average FY06 gross profit margin was outstanding at >70% and EBIT margin at >27%. LMA's peers' average gross margin was at 52.7% and EBIT margin at 14.7%. . LMA's core operations generate cashM&As and new management. dividends and we are expecting a major M&A to occur soon with the cash pile of US$28m in its balance sheets. We expect the acquisition to be along the theme of other operating theatre respiratory instrumentation or urology to synergise with LMA's current infrastructure and knowledge of these market segments. We are expecting the next acquisition's gross margin to be in line with LMA Stonebreaker's 70% range. Newly appointed CEO, Michael Ashton, is largely focusing on this aspect. Management has not paid out any2007 looks brighter. restructuring in major markets was completed in 2006. We expect that going into 2007, the key markets in US, Japan, Germany and Australia will show better performances. In particular, Germany's 4Q06 sales showed an encouraging 21% YoY growth due to the conclusion of hospital strikes and management changes. Management has indicated that corporatePositioned for a good year. high standards of safety, strong IP and establishing its International marketing infrastructure to achieve long term growth. Although we forecast revenue growth of 8.3% YoY to US$98.1m for FY07, we anticipate improved earnings quality with net profits expanding 12% YoY to US$25.2m. Based on a substantial 70% discount to its peers, we derive a conservative fair value of S$$0.80 at reasonable FY07 PE ratio of 12x PER. This presents an attractive 43% potential upside from its current share price and an opportunity to get into this stock prior to positive and earnings accretive news flow via impending M&As. We initiate coverage on LMA with a LMA continues to set barriers of entry throughBUYrating. Undervalued and ready for long term growth LMA International NV Year to Turnover Gross Profit Net Profit EPS EPS Growth PER Net Div Yield 31 Dec (US$m) (US$m) (US$m) (US cents) (%) (x) (%) FY 05 86.3 64.0 -2.5 4.3 - 8.6 - FY 06 90.6 64.2 22.5 4.1 -2.9 8.8 - FY 07F 98.1 70.8 25.2 4.4 5.0 8.4 - FY 08F 109.9 78.8 27.8 4.8 10.2 7.6 - Page 2 30 March 2007 LMA International NV INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS LMA International NV (LMA) designs, develops, markets and distributes medical equipment, principally the LMA supraglottic airway management devices. These devices are used by physicians to allow respiration, provide ventilation to, and support the airway of patients undergoing surgical procedures and life-saving interventions. LMA's first product, the LMA-Classic in the United States in 1991 and has since grown its portfolio of laryngeal mask airway products to a strong stable of 8 products. TM laryngeal mask airway range ofTM, was approved by the FDA for useMarket leading. technology is authenticated by a strong portfolio of about 315 patents and applications to protect its intellectual property (IP). LMA has been aggressively defending its IP against competitors since 2005. In Nov 06, LMA announced that it is filing to claim about US$4m plus costs in damages against German competitor AMBU for the territory of Germany. LMA will continue to pursue claims in all other EU territories that AMBU infringes its IP. LMA's forerunner status in the laryngeal mask airwayCash generative and diversifying. at about US$4.5m/quarter and it has a healthy cash balance of US$28m and no debt. The LMA Stonebreaker from LMA Urology is the first product outside LMA's core airway management product and was launched in Feb 07. We estimate that revenues for the Stonebreaker will contribute US$3m in FY07 and grow 120% YoY to US$6.5m in FY08. LMA's core operations generate cashM&As and better management. that M&As will be a key theme for LMA in 2007 to give earnings the next boost. We expect LMA to work on the urology arena to synergise its operations with Stonebreaker's infrastructure. New management has also been put in place in key markets such as US, Germany and Japan. With LMA's optimism in urology, the group's COO, Paul Malloy, has been put in charge of this segment to accelerate its growth. We have indication from managementMore market share coming up anaesthetists are also demanding better products to mitigate complications from endotracheal (ET) tubes which are the present state of the art. On average, there are about 600 deaths/year directly related to the use of the ET tube. The laryngeal mask has had zero fatalities directly linked to its 300m uses worldwide. . As technology surges ahead for surgeons,Good macro trends. will grow by 12.3% CAGR (2005-2012) and the US market will grow at 27.9% CAGR (2004-2011). These macro trends for laryngeal mask bode well for LMA as the leader in this market segment. F&S reports that the EU market for laryngeal masksPage 3 30 March 2007 LMA International NV Overview of recent performance Admirable performance in a competitive FY06. its FY06 results with a marginal 5% YoY rise in revenue to US$90.6m but recorded a flat net profit of US$24.1m (excluding non-recurring stock compensation charges). Despite maintaining a 20-30% price premium, facing aggressive price competition and a slowing conversion of reusables to single use masks, LMA sales still grew 3% in the US and 7% in the International market, authenticating its market leadership position. LMA recently reportedGood trends in units sold. good growth in units sold and sales of 30% YoY to 4.78m units and 13% YoY to US$43m respectively. The reuseables saw a decline of about 9% YoY units sold to 217.2k units, but only a marginal 0.5% YoY drop in ASP demonstrating LMA?s sustainable price premium. Taking the net effect of price depression and increase in units sold, we are encouraged to see a continued uptrend in sales. In FY06, LMA single use masks experiencedStrong gross margins. its quality medical products and continues to maintain a price premium above its competitors. Although there are 36 various brands of laryngeal masks in the market, of which 19 are made in China, management has indicated that even the Chinese hospitals are continuing to use LMA branded masks. LMA continues to enjoy >70% gross margins for2007 looks brighter. in major markets was completed in 2006. We expect that going into 2007, the key markets in US, Japan, Germany and Australia will show better performances. In particular, Germany?s 4Q06 sales showed an encouraging 21% YoY growth in sales due to the conclusion of hospital strikes and management changes. Management has indicated that corporate restructuringPage 4 30 March 2007 LMA International NV Figure 1: Revenue breakdown by products (US$?000) Source: Company, OIR estimates Why use a laryngeal mask? Main alternative ? Endotracheal (ET) tube. the nose or the mouth into the trachea, in order to establish a definitive airway, for the purpose of ventilating the lungs during anaesthesia or intensive care. This procedure is known as intubation, and the physician inserts the tube with the aid of a laryngoscope (allows physician to see where he?s going) introduced into the mouth and upper airway. The purpose of the tube is not only to maintain a patent airway, but also to protect the lower airway from aspiration and to allow the suction of secretions and other foreign materials, which could obstruct the airway. Placing an ET tube generally requires a high degree of skill to insert it correctly and if not, will induce tracheal tears and sore throats. It also requires the use of a laryngoscope and requires more drugs to sedate a patient. There are also about 600 deaths/year directly linked to the use of the ET tube. ET tubes are inserted throughThe better and safer way ? Laryngeal mask. without the use of a laryngoscope, less drugs needed for sedation and most importantly 300m uses without a single fatality directly linked to the LMA mask. The LMA laryngeal mask stands out as a revolutionary product in the anaesthetic field. In fact, the laryngeal mask is so easy to use that paramedics and critical care nurses can use it without guidance from the anaesthetist. Quicker and easier insertion4 9 , 2 4 2 2 7 , 2 5 7 4 6 , 3 5 0 3 7 , 9 6 7 4 2 , 2 3 8 4 2 , 9 9 3 3 9 , 8 6 8 4 6 , 9 0 8 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2004 2005 2006 2007F Reusables Single Use Others Urology Page 5 30 March 2007 LMA International NV Figure 2: LMA Classic Source: Company Figure 3: LMA Endotracheal tube Source: Company Page 6 30 March 2007 LMA International NV Key product range 1. Reusable Airway Management Products Trends cause units to decline. in units sold primarily due to the trend of use-and-throw (single use). This is mainly due to concerns of cross infections and increasing costs of sterilisation. However, markets in the emerging economies have tended to reuse LMA?s masks beyond the mandated 40 times due to pressures on bottomline. The combined effect of cross infection concerns in developed economies and over reuse of the mask in emerging economies have steadily reduced the number of reusable units sold. However, ASP remains strong and we estimate that the reusables still command a strong gross margin of >75%. LMA?s reusable products have been fallingCompetition. in the anaesthetist community and it will be challenging for competitors to take market share without taking a big hit in their margins. However, the quality of LMA may be its own undoing, as feedback within the industry of reusing the masks for more than 40 times due to its high quality of build. We expect that better education of void warranties and clinical proof of significant breakdowns past 40 uses of its reusable products will reduce this trend of overuse. We view LMA?s brand name and quality as well entrenchedSales of ?Others?. Mcgrath and is segmented as these are sold as capital equipment to the hospitals. We see very promising uptake of the Ctrach in the past quarters in the US and continue to see good traction in this product line in the years ahead. For FY07, we forecast a 72% YoY swell to US$8.4m sales. This segment consists of sales of the Ctrach andForecasts for resuables. profitably to the group but at a steadily declining rate. It was a point of inflexion of sales mix in FY06 as single use devices overtook reusables for the first time. For FY07, we anticipate reusables to contribute about 41% of total sales, a marginal decline of about 6% YoY to US$39.9m but to retain its gross margins of >75%. We expect reusables to continue to contributePage 7 30 March 2007 LMA International NV Figure 4: Resuable units sold and ASP Source: Company, OIR estimates 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 2004 2005 2006 2007F 162.0 164.0 166.0 168.0 170.0 172.0 174.0 US$ Reusable units sold in '000 (LHS) Reusables ASP (RHS) 2. Single-use Airway Management Products Always sterile, always new. medical products due to its inherent advantages. First, cross contamination is the main concern whereby more viruses are easily passed on via contact. Fluid contact devices like syringes, needles and sutures are now designed to be disposable to stem the tide of diseases. LMA?s single use masks are delivered sterile and ready to use. This reduces high overheads for sterilisation costs, logistical tracking of number of uses and ease in planning for inventory. There is an evident trend towards disposableSupremacy has arrived. in Singapore and Australia. The LMA Supreme complements the range of single use offerings in LMA?s stable as its most advanced product with a built-in drainage tube. Made in Singapore, this new device is expected to spur conversions from reusable into single use products and to wrest more market share from the ET tube with its gastric access feature. Management has indicated that the scenario is being prepared for the Supreme to be launched in the US in 1H07. LMA has recently launched the LMA SupremeStabilisation of average ASP. new product, we are likely to see the net effect of good cost controls, decreasing ASP and increasing units sold to be positive in stabilising the downward trend of the single use units. We expect that when Supreme is launched in the US in 2H07, economies of scale would kick in as volume increases. With the introduction of the Supreme as aPage 8 30 March 2007 LMA International NV Forecast for single-use. units sold in FY06 showed it is the way to go for laryngeal masks. We are conservative in our estimation and forecast 20% YoY rise in the number of single use units sold for FY07 translating to a 9% YoY increase in sales to US$47m. We think that the price compression will be mitigated with Supreme and with new management in place in the key markets. The 31% YoY jump in the number of single useFigure 5: Single use units sold and ASP Source: Company, OIR estimates - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2004 2005 2006 2007F - 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 US$ Single Use units sold in '000 (LHS) Single Use ASP (RHS) Figure 6: LMA airway products Source: Company LMA Supreme LMA McGrath Page 9 30 March 2007 LMA International NV 3. Urology Products Urology market potential. addressing the urinary tract stone problem. Each year, more than 600k Americans, mostly aged between 30 and 60 suffer from urolithiasis (the process of stones forming in the kidney, bladder and/or urethra). These stones range in consistency (soft to hard) and size (speck-sized to walnutsized). LMA has opted to enter the urology market by?Stone hard? facts: - 12% of Americans will have a kidney stone some time in their life - Prevalence of urolithiasis in the American population is 5.2% (up from 3.8% from 30 years ago) - In 2000, 600k Americans went to the emergency room for stone related pain - 1/3 of all visits to a urologists are for kidney stones - The development of the stones is related to decreased urine volume or increased excretion of stone-forming components such as calcium, oxalate, urate, cystine, xanthine, and phosphate. It is expected to be increasingly prevalent. Emerging markets are calling. Pacific HQ in Singapore is due to the proximity of major emerging markets of China (2.1b people) and India (1.1b people). Stone burden is large and complex systems are costly and are only available at large hospitals, rendering the majority of the rural population without an adequate solution. The Stonebreaker will give urologists a compact, portable and self powered device to address this huge rural need. A primary reason that LMA has its AsiaPage 10 30 March 2007 LMA International NV Table 1: LMA urology product comparison Source: Company Figure 7: LMA Stonebreaker (portable hand held size) Source: Company LMA?s Stonebreaker (CE marked) Competitive products Lower cost: Higher costs: US$5-10k per Stonebreaker unit Shockwave: US$60k-300k per machine US$45-90 per probe (consumable) Laser: US$50k per machine US$5-10 per CO (consumable) Ballistic: US$20k per machine FDA 510K certification expected in 1H07 No electricity needed Mains electrical power needed About 20 shocks per patient Shockwave system requires 4000 shocks. Ballistic systems requires hundred of shocks. No probe movement. Little retropulsion (stone will not move away) Ballistic systems cause severe retropulsion Chiselled fragments. No clouding gives clear vision Micro fragments from jack hammer movement clouds vision Laser and ballistic systems (20kg), Shockwave system (300kg). Translates 30 bar of pressure into energy from small disposable cartridge. Wall gas outlet only provides 6 bar of pressure. Wall gas not readily available at smaller hospitals. Portable and lightweight (500g). Ideal for rural mobile clinic use 2 cartridgePage 11 30 March 2007 LMA International NV Figure 8: Stonebreaker with probes Source: Company Positive clinician feedback. positive for LMA. When we visited the 18 held in Singapore (1-3 Mar 07), we were impressed by the positive feedback from the end user clinicians on the ease of use and efficacy of the Stonebreaker. We also investigated competing devices from Dornier MedTech (shockwave technology), Lumenis (laser technology) and the Swiss Lithoclast (pneumatic technology) and came away with the impression that these machines cost more and/or took a longer period of time to break stones (less efficient). We view this diversification into urology asth Video Urology world congressEnergy delivery system. Stonebreaker is the method which the device is able to transfer energy to the tip of the probe which will be in contact with the stone. The kinetic energy delivered to the stone then utilises the natural faults in the stone to fragment it into manageable sized fragments for removal. There is minimal probe movement thus reducing stone movement away from the probe (retropulsion). The key Intellectual Property (IP) behind the1 come from the sales of the device. With an average sale price of US$7500, it comes much more affordable than other lithotripsy machines. Capital good purchases typically have a threshold below US$10,000 so hospitals or small urology centres will be able to easily get their hands on the Stonebreaker without much paperwork. The Swiss Lithoclast has an estimated installed base of about 5000 worldwide and we expect LMA to be aggressive in taking its market share and to promote this in the Asian region due to its portability and lower price point. st phase revenue stream. The Stonebreaker?s 1st phase of revenue willPage 12 30 March 2007 LMA International NV 2 expect to see higher usage and thus an increase in revenue of the consumable probes and CO2 cartridges. Management has highlighted that these consumables are difficult to replicate for the Stonebreaker to deliver the same performance. We note that the likelihood of re-use of probes is more probable than buying cheaper 3 has mentioned that new flexible probes are being designed as an additional offering to the present straight probe. nd phase revenue stream. With an increase in the installed base, werd party consumables. ManagementEndorsement of product. LMA has signed an exclusive distributorship agreement with EDAP. EDAP, with more than 25 years of experience in sales and distribution, has a strong knowledge of the medical community in France. The company has significant expertise in the domestic lithotripsy market and a dedicated distribution network. As a show of quick marketing execution footwork,Current Stonebreaker capacity. are able to produce Stonebreakers by the ?hundreds? from their Switzerland plant but it would be simple to replicate the production line and thus quadrupling capacity if necessary. Management has indicated that theyForecast for Urology. for the Urology segment. As guided, we forecast that the Stonebreaker will grow exponentially from its small base to contribute about US$3m in FY07 and grow 120% YoY to contribute US$6.5m in FY08. Management is confident of achieving strong growthManufacturing and distribution Low cost centre advantage. its single use products, including the high yielding new Supreme product, in Singapore. The EU and US still continue to produce the reusable products as ASP compression in that segment does not weigh in on costs. LMA also utilises Singapore?s status as a global transport hub to efficiently ship products all over the world and a launch pad to reach the rest of Asia as key emerging markets like China, India and Australia are within an 8-hour flight radius. LMA compresses costs as it produces all ofPage 13 30 March 2007 LMA International NV Figure 9: LMA?s global presence Source: Company, OIR Industry and growth prospects Increase in surgical procedures. surgical procedures done in a year all over the world and is growing at the rate of 20% (per year till 2012). The market for airway management devices is dependant mainly on the number of surgical procedures conducted. Every procedure conducted with general anesthesia has to use an airway management device. This boosts the need for airway management devices and hence acts as a driver to the market. LMA management estimates that they take up about 38% of the total airway management products used in surgeries. F&S reports that there are over 170mMore day surgeries. down on costs as they do not need to spend a night in the hospital as surgical procedures improve. Laryngeal masks are easier to use and unlike ET tubes, the patient has to take less drugs for sedation and thus patient can come out of sedation quic |
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hikitty
Master |
31-Mar-2007 17:41
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Moneymatters - you are "investor smart". Instead of chasing after shares that have gone up sky high (and feeding those investors) , you had bought LMA shares that were dumped. With LMA management share buyback scheme in place, and extensive media coverage recommending it as a buy, LMA shd move north from now on to make up for lost time?. |
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hikitty
Master |
31-Mar-2007 16:40
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Even the free Chinese daily "wobao" also carried the OCBC research report. Imagine an "international" brand being "ill-treated" for the past two years after being listed. Time for it to be "resurrected"? Hope the contra long traders do not mess up the upward movement. Of course, the short sellers are always welcomed to short as it moves north!!!! |
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moneymatters
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31-Mar-2007 15:00
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Just read the OCBC report. Excellent piece of analysis with sufficient clarity and details. Like especially the LMA vs Ambu and peer group comparison. Boy, am I glad I loaded up when the counter came under relentless selling. Interesting to note that Stonebreaker FDA 510K certification is expected to take place in 1H 2007. This is defintely something to watch in the next few weeks/months. Target of 0.80 should surpass by mid year. |
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TKK2007
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31-Mar-2007 14:51
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Today biz times also cover LMA... |
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invest&earn
Member |
31-Mar-2007 12:43
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Hi Happyseah, Where you saw the JP Morgan report ? Care to share ? |
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