Latest Forum Topics / AusGroup Last:0.009 -- | Post Reply |
AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m
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hooyou1312
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03-Oct-2012 09:02
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khng, thanks for the writeup... newbies like me can benefit.. |
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verynew
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03-Oct-2012 09:00
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Hi khng,
Thank you so much and appraciate Your sharing to us will bear this in mind you are a great man thks againg for sharing with us cheers
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teeth53
Supreme |
03-Oct-2012 08:58
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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Like wise, they can oso buy down to sell, end of the day, on average their numbers ended in five digit, it can be in one (1) lot and or several thousand lots. So prices traded can be up and or down, it does not make not much different in term of pricing. | ||||||||||
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teeth53
Supreme |
03-Oct-2012 08:46
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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They don do chionging, they buy / sell to their liking, they like volume trading, as their holding is huge, they got some stake in it - is something like BBs vs BBs, each time when prices trading higher, chances is some of their stake maybe release into the mkt, bit by bit. and so on...Happi Trading.
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dhalinx
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03-Oct-2012 07:57
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Hi Khng2012,   Your insights are very appreciated. :)   Thanx. 
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khng2012
Master |
02-Oct-2012 23:18
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I am not BB. I can't control how it go and also will not commit what I said. That's why I never put 'must'. Please see the difference. When a share like Ausgroup which trade with more than 2 times of its daily average trading (Ausgroup is traded 26 times of its average daily trading). The big players are inside. I don't know how many are they. If you trace back my previous post, I estimated yesterday rally will be 3 days correction of previous rally. At the end, I was right. Today, I estimate it will be tomorrow afternoon or thursday morning. I hope I am right too, not guarantee All these predictions are according to the chart analysis, It is 50-50%, not 100% since I am not BB and BB is free to choose the method that they want to play. Play share must go to see the activity of every share and detect the symptons of BB accumulation at cheap, study the past financial result, study the industry of the company in and know the market trend. I won't teach too much which you really need to learn yourselves. But I give you the example of my detection of Ausgroup and you may explore futher from here. First thing is to detect the trading volume and detect BB accumulation. Ausgroup has 2 rally in 2012 with huge volume in feb and april but Its volume stop in next day and price are pressing down. It s the symptons BB accumulation of share. BB press it down because they doesn't accumulate sufficient and time is not ripe. 2nd thing is to study the financial result of the company. Brokers recommendation always based on the financial ratio obtained from yearly financial result instead of quarterly. As such, a lot of share whose profit are picking up within 2 quarters will not be detected. I will say brokers purposely do it for them to accummulate and prepare to push up the price. Ausgroup fianancial report pick up from 1st to 3rd quarter significantly. Almost all the website and brokers rating are still based on last year and give Ausgroup negative rating. Thing change when they announce 4th quarter result and the yearly result finally disclose that Ausgroup is undervalued. I bought Ausgroup after 3rd quarter after assuming its 4 quarter result can be continue as per order book and its profit margin improving. It is very important. A lot of financial figure can help to detect if a share is undervalued or overvalued. 3rd thing is to understand the stock market playing tools and its operation philosophy. The tools available for stock trading are normal stock trading, 3 day Contra and CFD margin. Stock trading holders normally are having the strong holding ability who can hold stock with any price (but normally is the one trap at high price in the past and don't want to sell since they believe that it is only paper loss and expect price to recover and majority of them are newbie), 3 day Contra are the weakest trading holder. all brokers offer their client to settle their payment in T+3. So market has quite a lot short term player who don't hold money and cash just purely based on their technical chart skill to detect oversold share and buy in to expect next day rally and sell it to earn money within 3 days, this is the group of people, BB first want to remove before the next rally since these short term player will spoil their soup. CFD margin player is the person who play leverage like me, it allow to short(sell) or long(buy) the share. Ausgroup is allow 20% CFD margin which means we can hold 5 times of share that a normal stock trader has but we only has 20% margin to drop if I am at long position for example I have 5000 but I can hold 25000 valued share but i will be killed if the share drop 20% which is equivalent to 5000. BB will also like to kill all these CFD margin holders who will also spoil their soup if price rising since CFD margin holders will also sell down the share when they think they earn enough, like today dropping can scare away some CFD margin holders to think about using margin to play since BB can buy up 13.7% and also can sell down 8% in a day. whoever play CFD margin will be scare away with this kind of rally. For example if the CFD buyer long(bought) 57cents today. Today sell down to 53.3cents which is about 8% drop in the afternoon. This CFD holder incurred 8% out of 20% or 40% loss in their CFD account. 40% loss in CFD margin will suffer so called 'margin call' by their brokers in next day, their brokers will ask them to top up the 40% loss in order to maintain their long position tomorrow. if they fail to do top up the money, Brokers will force sell their share and to achieve margin call requirement on thursday. As such 40% of his buy share at 57cents will be forced to sell on thursday. In last rally, BB stop the rally with 3 days before next rally to kill Contra holders. May be too much people has good expectation on Ausgroup, they may change to play CFD margin which can allow them to hold the share more than 3 days. However, margin call is the weakness of all these CFD holders. As such, BB push price up yesterday and let all these CFD player rush in to buy and kill today with 0 to 8% margin loss. Why I said tomorrow afternoon or thursday morning because the CFD player may be desperate to sell tomorrow till afternoon and BB will collect what they sell the whole morning without pushing price up and may push price up in the after noon after 3 to 4pm. If BB think that what the share they collected is not enough the whole day, they won't push the price up and wait till thursday. All these CFD player will be forced to sell their share. If BB still think no enough for share collection. I am sorry that thursday morning will be anonther sell down to chase more CFD player out the game. Once BB think they have collected enough share they will continue their job to push share higher. This is the game and a long process. SGX got plenty of share, different BBs will aim different share. So chance is everywhere. Miss is ok, catch 1 in 1 to 2 years will be sufficient for your earning. Who are BBs? They are Brokers like Poems or Lim & Tan, Bankers like DBS, UOB or OCBC, external funds and brokers from global market. Why they are doing it? Because your CPF need interest, your insurance policy need interest, your trust need interest. In order to earn interest, your money who are invested with them will flow into stock market, commodity market, currency market and etc market to earn. The other way is you are giving money to them to hurt your own share investment. I never buy insurance policy except medical related(purely medical) and trust. I prefer to invest myself. OK I spent hour to write this. Newbie must read more and learn more. I spend 4 to 5 years to understand stock market. Please put in more effort.
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Tomique
Master |
02-Oct-2012 22:39
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This counter, I missed after waiting too long at 40 plus cents.   So I believe it has gone up alot already.   Don't forget to take profit. | ||||||||||
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xin9999
Senior |
02-Oct-2012 22:07
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U sounds confident ya. I support u! LOL
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xin9999
Senior |
02-Oct-2012 22:03
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Hi khng, do u mind to tell why are u so sure that there wil be no 3days correction and most probably around Thursday will be rally day? I would like to hear from experienced sifu like u. Thanks.. n sorry because im a newbie...so i wish to learn more.
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verynew
Veteran |
02-Oct-2012 20:52
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Hi Khng
Thks for ur info Huat ah
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khng2012
Master |
02-Oct-2012 20:44
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2011 AGM on 21 oct. 2012 shall be 20+.
Today, BB shall collect a lot of shares since confidence was killed every 6000+ lot buy block is break. Tomorrow shall be another correction day between 52.5 to 53.5. There will not be 3 days correction. Tomorrow afternoon ot thursday morning shall be rally day.
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yabbest
Senior |
02-Oct-2012 20:15
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cautiously confidently that will go up tmr whoakakaka  |
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verynew
Veteran |
02-Oct-2012 20:02
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Hi all when is the agm held
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khng2012
Master |
02-Oct-2012 18:03
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Midas also fail to cross 43cents resistance line. One day up, one day down.
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khng2012
Master |
02-Oct-2012 17:56
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Ya agreed, tomorrow onward is uncertain. If tomorrow stay flat with low volume, the next rally may need to wait till AGM meeting. In AGM meeting, Ausgroup management shall disclose the progress of the application.
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yabbest
Senior |
02-Oct-2012 17:47
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Bro, i was wrong, i expected it to kiss 0.60/ 0.61 lvl before profit taking...definitely its manipulation from what i witnessed... i will hang on for now, as i dont think it will breach 0.47 lvl...if it does i will get out at least preserve capital than see how...cant be stubborn, follow the wind must monitor closely tmr, we dont know BBs plan, if they want to play " scare" then maybe it may retreat further or standstill...overall its a gd day for me took profits off ntegrator... 
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risktaker
Supreme |
02-Oct-2012 17:40
Yells: "Sometimes you think you know, but in fact you dont" |
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so... u want up or down?
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khng2012
Master |
02-Oct-2012 17:13
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Ausgroup become Mymmar play, trade about 20% of its total share in a day and up down very fierce. Are you preparing to ride Roller Coaster name as Ausgroup!!!!!!!!!
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rotijai
Supreme |
02-Oct-2012 17:13
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there's no standard rule for that..
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raykee
Senior |
02-Oct-2012 17:12
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can someone enlighten me on  more the bid vol better to rise the price or more the ask vol? thanks in advance! | ||||||||||
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