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The Big Boys plan next week
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warrenbegger
Elite |
18-Sep-2011 21:51
Yells: "Anyhow Buy Anyhow Die ^_^" |
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Everyday we r facing with bets, odds, chance, probability, lucky or unlucky life. We cannot totally control our life and thats also betting? Cause there is also uncertainty in the outcome whatever we do. Eg, some said smoking will die faster and no smoking will live longer, from the moment they smoke, they already betting how long they will survive. But sometimes life is not what we think it would be the outcome. Maybe those who smoke live longer than U and those didnt smoke kanna sickness or accident for nothing, life is somehow unfair around us. From the moment we wake up, we already facing with uncertainty. Like others said, life is a gambler/bets. U dont know what will happen next no matter how confidence U r. Probability odds is what we can use to guess what will happen next, either by high or low chance of getting the result. Without probability, all we do is totally betting, all depend on chance and luck liao. Eg, what is the probability of playing football near the roadside or in the field without getting serious accident? And what the chance of success if u opening a business with a plan or without a plan? Ya, we cant be 100% sure in life, but we can use probability to get the success rate we think what will be the likely outcome. In stock, 90% and 10% of winning rate is different in my view, there r not the same if i play(for new bird i dont know because they blur). Eg, Singtel. If i want to bet on 1 player assume that 90% and 10% is not useful or all is just betting as u said (Eg given is in normal market condition) -Player A long ST at $5+ -Player B long ST at $3+ -Player C long ST at $2+ -Player D long ST at $1+ (wait long long, LOL) -Player E Short ST at $1 (looking for death, ha ha) If there r 5 choices for u to bet, which player will U bets? Now U see the probability of chance? I 101% sure bet on player D cause it had the best odds and chance to win. If 90% or 10% probability is not useful and all is just a bet for uncertainty outcome. Tell me who dare to bet on player A and E, who so idiot to do that? In gamblers worlds, theres not such things as professional casino gambler, but there is professional poker player around. Those expert in WSOP, Texas Holdem or Omaha will know what i talking about. Games of chance = Pure betting. Games of skill = Higher Probability chance of winning than others that depend totally on luck. In very short time frame, maybe all is betting. But in a longer time frame, mosty skillful play will edge out. That why in stock, short term is unpredictable but long term is more predictable. If u tell warren buffeet that from the moment he invest/or bet for uncertainty outcome, i think he will F**K U, lol. Different people got different view, thats depend how well u can see through those confusion. My friend last time also told me that stock market is a big casino, all is just betting and he also lose a lots. I let him see my portfoilo and he said why like that, why can buy the same stock but different result. I told him why and he know thats all along he was just betting. Maybe we r all betting for different unknown result, but to me every bet is different if u know whats and when to bet. Betting is just a words, to me, make the right bets is the key to success. If every thing in stock is just betting and gambling, there wont be any famous legend investor or super trader around thats can show and prove u thats their account make it. Their result show all of us liao, why they can make it? Why? U know the ways to the bank? I want to said sorry sorry and more sorry to some. This is just my own view and i can be very very wrong. Lets learn from each others, cheers :) |
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medivh
Elite |
18-Sep-2011 21:33
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Nowsaday is mosty speculator, most r betting, but not totally all r betting. This statement is the best statement and most true.. Last time can hold long.. now adays even ILP or LP is all BS.. but thats another story. Alas, alot of ppl are still trying to BS me by calling me " sir, you know ah, 1 insurance plan not enough...." Now adays I only trade 1 type of equity. Fast in fast out...
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Salute
Master |
18-Sep-2011 20:20
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some signs are out...oil to be pumped to $150 in spring, gold has gone down. US mkt up in 3 days and not 200pts, but less than 80pts....are these good heralding for short term | ||||
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rotijai
Supreme |
18-Sep-2011 18:26
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wat can go wrong? fed can break the 1228 (50 ma resistance) and 1250 (great china wall resistance) and push the market back to bull market (at least in the short-mid term).. our analyse can be wrong.. but the market is never wrong uh ? :)
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xing78
Elite |
18-Sep-2011 18:16
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It depends on how much dollar the FED is going to print. TA & FA done previously can all go wrong if the FED announce plans to print another couple of trillion next week to distort the economy. LOL
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iPunter
Supreme |
18-Sep-2011 17:54
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A bet is a bet only when there is uncertainty in the outcome... And also, in stocks, saying there's 90 % or 10% probability is not useful at all, for one is still betting. And who is to determine or apportion the probability/improbability?...  |
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rotijai
Supreme |
18-Sep-2011 17:49
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master xing, which level are u looking at ? for s& p 1228?
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xing78
Elite |
18-Sep-2011 17:41
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yes it is a form of betting.
the fed is betting.
the ecb is also betting.
LOL
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Gaecia
Elite |
18-Sep-2011 17:14
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typo, wat to name it.
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Gaecia
Elite |
18-Sep-2011 16:22
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He's also thinking how to name it. *chuckles* I help u oki, call it Korean perm.
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iPunter
Supreme |
18-Sep-2011 14:46
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In stocks, it realy matter slittle whether one thinks or reckons (read analyse) tha probabiity. A 90% or 5% probability is of no practical value when speculating in stocks... It is all a matter of time frame and ability to bear big losses for long periods... and that is where the betting comes in... |
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iPunter
Supreme |
18-Sep-2011 14:40
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That is really farthest from the truth... A bet is an act when one does not have 100% certainty of the outcome. Like if one puts money in fd, one has practically is 100% certain that one get s the promised interest, and thus that is not a bet at all. But in stocks, every investor bets on the stock rising... It is a bet, regardless of amount of hope and trust put in...
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stockmarketmind
Master |
18-Sep-2011 14:32
Yells: "stockmarketmindgames" |
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betting is like killing oneself | ||||
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warrenbegger
Elite |
18-Sep-2011 14:11
Yells: "Anyhow Buy Anyhow Die ^_^" |
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Betting is just a term/words There r many kinds of bet too Eg. -Anyhow bet without thinking > 95%+ lose rate -Bet with some thinking like trend/pattern > 45% win rate -System betting with others damage control management > 55% win rate -A very experience(great market forsight/insight/outsight) market eagle with a sharp eyes > 70%+ win rate Above % i give is just a guide, may different from what others view. All is betting, but what kind of bet? Theres r good/bad bets, risky/safer bets and anyhow/rubbish bets :) |
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teeth53
Supreme |
18-Sep-2011 14:11
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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Huh...Huat Arhh...UBS...  . This one is good.
" I can tell U that most FM also lose like siao in bad markets. U lose thousand and they will lose million+++, and got 1 idiot in a big bank also lose 2billion :) "
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iPunter
Supreme |
18-Sep-2011 13:59
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Sifu's post is very valuable... lol...
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warrenbegger
Elite |
18-Sep-2011 13:53
Yells: "Anyhow Buy Anyhow Die ^_^" |
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U also right, nowsaday most player like to bet. And in internet fast trading worlds, most only want to earn quick bucks. But every player mindset is different, Maybe 90% out theres treat stock like betting, but theres also 9% out there didnt bet, they r the only real investor. Real investor is very boring (buy and hold long long), nowsaday most want to see action, now buy after 1 hrs must goes up, if not cut and play others side. If i tell u i got 1 proven strategy that could help u gain 100%+ and almost 90% winning rate, but need to see result after 10 years, U want? i think most just forget it... Nowsaday is mosty speculator, most r betting, but not totally all r betting. There's a new term in this betting world, thats call new breeds of strategic betting(this type combine the best of 3 worlds) They r the shark of the sea, is not about the size, is about their brain...
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iPunter
Supreme |
18-Sep-2011 13:39
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Sifu's posts got so much great value... Stock market is all about betting right... Value is just opinion, because - All is Betting... lol... |
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warrenbegger
Elite |
18-Sep-2011 13:28
Yells: "Anyhow Buy Anyhow Die ^_^" |
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Sometimes in very bad market condition, whole market fund is begin burn into thin air. Theory/reasoning of value/fund loss into toilet FM A load #value of stock# @ $10 and cut loss to FM B @ $9. FM B also cut loss to FM C @ $5 and FM C very shoik and happy. Market shock comes and FM C throw all @ $2 to FM D. FM D get all the cheap shit and no choice but to hold and support at this low px. 1 FM = many investor fund. FM A, B and C all lose a lots and maybe already puiii big big by their investor. FM D maybe the lucky one but... If market turn good, FM D will the top earner. If unlucky and his holding pok/crash/shock/suspended and cause bankruptcy to 0 value. Then all (FM= Funny Monkey) is lost. Maybe from beginning value of $2million to the value of $0. All fund value turn into ashes. And this is the example of only 1 stock, during market shock, the whole worlds stock fund burn by 50%+ to heaven. Most people lose their hard earn $ into air. Now most will think, why at the start why buy at so high px? Thats why the theory of value and PE comes into play... In this market, is how U see the value of each stock. But too bad many just see the ((px)) begin speculate and not the value. I can tell U that most FM also lose like siao in bad markets. U lose thousand and they will lose million+++, and got 1 idiot in a big bank also lose 2billion :) Maybe this post got some error cause i write this in 5min thinking only, wish u know what i trying to said... Maybe to those new bird still trying to learn flying. |
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iPunter
Supreme |
18-Sep-2011 13:10
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Sifu is right... In stocks betting, it is all a matter of betting right. Big boys or small boys, regardless of size, wrong bets will bring losses. All Is Betting...
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