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Latest Forum Topics / ChinaAniH  Post Reply
China Animal - Force to be reckoned with
GuavaXF30
Master
27-May-2011 08:21     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hmnn. Thanks but when was this issued ? May be time to start accumulating..

kohyihan      ( Date: 26-May-2011 20:21) Posted:



DBS' buy call on China Animal Health, TP: $0.45 

Potential Catalyst: Operational performance better tender wins

More certainty at lower price
• Recent correction brings more value as fundamentals
look firm
• Expect sequential improvement from 1Q11 as vaccines
sales pick up in 2011
• Share price corrected back down to Apr’10 levels, when
it was before the announcements and materialization of
plans
• Reiterate Buy for c.70% upside to our TP of S$0.45

 

Let's hope this helps everyone who vested in this stock.

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ravikp
Member
26-May-2011 20:28     
 
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Tp 45 cents,Now only 26.5 cents leh, Double times ahead.

kohyihan      ( Date: 26-May-2011 20:21) Posted:



DBS' buy call on China Animal Health, TP: $0.45 

Potential Catalyst: Operational performance better tender wins

More certainty at lower price
• Recent correction brings more value as fundamentals
look firm
• Expect sequential improvement from 1Q11 as vaccines
sales pick up in 2011
• Share price corrected back down to Apr’10 levels, when
it was before the announcements and materialization of
plans
• Reiterate Buy for c.70% upside to our TP of S$0.45

 

Let's hope this helps everyone who vested in this stock.

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kohyihan
Member
26-May-2011 20:21     
 
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DBS' buy call on China Animal Health, TP: $0.45 

Potential Catalyst: Operational performance better tender wins

More certainty at lower price
• Recent correction brings more value as fundamentals
look firm
• Expect sequential improvement from 1Q11 as vaccines
sales pick up in 2011
• Share price corrected back down to Apr’10 levels, when
it was before the announcements and materialization of
plans
• Reiterate Buy for c.70% upside to our TP of S$0.45

 

Let's hope this helps everyone who vested in this stock.
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marubozu1688
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26-May-2011 16:16     
 
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 Alert Admin 		China Animal Healthcare is still on down trend.
http://mystocksinvesting.com/singapore-stocks/china-animal-health/china-animal-healthcare-at-corrective-elliott-wave-c/
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medivh
Elite
26-May-2011 11:06     
 
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Every stakeholder wants the share px to go up instead of the opposite lor...So they will do whatever it takes to bring it up, whatever means...


=)

wishbone      ( Date: 26-May-2011 10:03) Posted:

Well! You have to think who is paying all these guys to write all these and what is the objective behind. Surely they must be a purpose right!!!! Don't tell me they are doing this as a community service for you and me!!!

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 25-May-2011 14:03) Posted:

Dunno man. The articles was  written last Friday but no action these past few days. Maybe not true. 
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GuavaXF30
Master
26-May-2011 10:21     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Seems like it's in play today. Will be interesting to see if there is really news after all.

wishbone      ( Date: 26-May-2011 10:03) Posted:

Well! You have to think who is paying all these guys to write all these and what is the objective behind. Surely they must be a purpose right!!!! Don't tell me they are doing this as a community service for you and me!!!

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 25-May-2011 14:03) Posted:

Dunno man. The articles was  written last Friday but no action these past few days. Maybe not true. 
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wishbone
Master
26-May-2011 10:03     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Well! You have to think who is paying all these guys to write all these and what is the objective behind. Surely they must be a purpose right!!!! Don't tell me they are doing this as a community service for you and me!!!

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 25-May-2011 14:03) Posted:

Dunno man. The articles was  written last Friday but no action these past few days. Maybe not true. 

khlixin      ( Date: 25-May-2011 13:43) Posted:

If it is true, I wonder what price they can offer ? The nbv stands at only S$6 cts after taken out the intangible asset, and the eps 1.4 cts per share last yr. and the current price is 25.5 cts
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kingster
Senior
26-May-2011 09:56     
 
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 Alert Admin 		action time......................
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GuavaXF30
Master
25-May-2011 14:03     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Dunno man. The articles was  written last Friday but no action these past few days. Maybe not true. 

khlixin      ( Date: 25-May-2011 13:43) Posted:

If it is true, I wonder what price they can offer ? The nbv stands at only S$6 cts after taken out the intangible asset, and the eps 1.4 cts per share last yr. and the current price is 25.5 cts.

medivh      ( Date: 25-May-2011 13:26) Posted:



If its true then time to load up lor .. (another Allgreen??)

if you don't think its true then give up lor ..

either way also win.  (," ) (" ,)

 


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medivh
Elite
25-May-2011 14:02     
 
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ya lor.. wat goes in the animal still comes out the same..

 

khlixin      ( Date: 25-May-2011 13:43) Posted:

If it is true, I wonder what price they can offer ? The nbv stands at only S$6 cts after taken out the intangible asset, and the eps 1.4 cts per share last yr. and the current price is 25.5 cts.

medivh      ( Date: 25-May-2011 13:26) Posted:



If its true then time to load up lor .. (another Allgreen??)

if you don't think its true then give up lor ..

either way also win.  (," ) (" ,)

 


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khlixin
Member
25-May-2011 13:43     
 
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 Alert Admin 		If it is true, I wonder what price they can offer ? The nbv stands at only S$6 cts after taken out the intangible asset, and the eps 1.4 cts per share last yr. and the current price is 25.5 cts.

medivh      ( Date: 25-May-2011 13:26) Posted:



If its true then time to load up lor .. (another Allgreen??)

if you don't think its true then give up lor ..

either way also win.  (," ) (" ,)

 

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medivh
Elite
25-May-2011 13:26     
 
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If its true then time to load up lor .. (another Allgreen??)

if you don't think its true then give up lor ..

either way also win.  (," ) (" ,)

 
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E-war
Veteran
25-May-2011 13:12     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Great a buyout wld make things interesting!
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kingster
Senior
25-May-2011 13:08     
 
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 Alert Admin

How true is it ah???????????????



DEALTALK-Private equity wants to take China orphans home (2011/05/24 11:43AM)

    * Bain Capital first global buyout shop to agree such deal
    * Slew of other buyouts in the works
    * Funding of such buyouts are risky


    By Stephen Aldred
    HONG KONG, May 20 (Reuters - Private equity firms are working on a series of deals to buy so-called " China orphans" ,
mainland firms listed in the United States and Singapore, with their stocks undervalued by investors who don''t understand their
business model or home market.

    The deals are pushing ahead even as a series of accountancy and governance scandals that have tarnished the reputation of
China companies listed overseas in recent months, and hammered stock values.  

    Last week, Bain Capital Partners agreedto buy U.S. listed China Fire & Security Group Inc   for $265.5 million, becoming the first major global buyout firm to close in on such a deal.

    A slew of other buyout deals are in the works, including Kohlberg KravisRoberts & Co''s [KKR.UL] planned bid for Singapore listed Oceanus Ltd , Primavera''s privatisation of U.S.-listed Chemspec Ltd , and PAG Asia Capital''s planned buyout of *censored* China Holdings Ltd .

    Singapore''s China Animal Healthcare , backed by Blackstone Group L.P. , is in talks with investment banks to list on the Hong Kong stock exchange and delist from Singapore, according to four sources familiar with the matter. Blackstone and China Animal declined comment.

    Such buyouts, known in banking circles as " take China privates" , involve delisting companies from the U.S. or Singapore, and eventually relist them in Hong Kong or China to increase their marketvalues.  

    The deal sizes are relatively small, but history shows there is a decent upside potential for the right target.  

    Morgan Stanley Private Equity''s delisting of Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Group Ltd < 0460.HK> is regularly cited asan example of returns that can be made with the right target.

    MSPE took Sihuan private in Singapore in 2009, identifying a company that required no additional work before relisting in
Hong Kong in October 2010. The stock jumped 28 percent on its IPO, with top-end pricing valuing the company at 26.7 times 2011
earnings.

    Even hybrid firms are jumping in on the act, with Morgan Stanley-backed Hong Kong fund Abax Capital in discussions with
Harbin Electric for a buyout deal according to sources working on the deal.  

    Harbin has been in the market since last year and was previously in discussions with Baring Asia Private Equity, while banks are one point tried to line up financing to back a bid by CVC Asia Capital
   
    PLENTY OF RISKS

    Such deals are not without significant risks.

    The head of a leading regional private equity firm gave an example of a deal where his firm pulled out when it discovered
that the target company ha hidden unconsolidated shares at a subsidiary and had not disclosed that it had guaranteed loans
for the subsidiary company.  

    " I don''t see this kind of behaviour anywhere else. I can only put it down to people trying to bury their problems, and hoping to deal with them in the future," said the source, who declined to be named because the discussions were private.

    Many of the small and mid-cap firms listed in the U.S. got there through reverse takeovers, while Singapore''s small and mid-cap " S-chips" ducked the more stringent requirements on profits and management continuity required by the Hong Kong Exchange.        

    " There''s a reason why some of these companies listed through the back door. It''s because they couldn''t get i through the
front door," said one senior banker whose bank is working on a number of potential buyouts for orphan companies.

    Funding for buyouts of Chinese companies is done through an offshore holding company, but the risk of non-payment ishigh,
and many banks cannot lend on such deals.  

    Banks have to get comfortable with the risk that the firm will make enough revenue to pay the debt, that it will agree to
upstream the money to the holding company, and that the Chinese regulators will sign off on the transaction.  

    A previous Abax bid illustrated the risky nature of the deals and the need for a thorough due diligence process.  

    Abax, which styles itself as a hedge fund and private equity firm, caughttraditional private equity firms off-guard, jumping
in with a bid for Fushi Copperweld in November 2010 .

    Abax then broke off the talks in February, shortly before Fushi Copperweld restated its results for 2007, 2008 and2009.
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GuavaXF30
Master
26-Apr-2011 10:03     
 
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 Alert Admin 		New round of buy calls.

China Animal Healthcare: Slower than expected FMD vaccines ramp up (BUY, S$0.31, TP

S$0.42)

Tan Han Meng, CFA, CPA (6232 3839, hanmeng.tan@sg.oskgroup.com)

Terence Wong, CFA (6232 3896, terence.wong@sg.oskgroup.com)

1Q11 adjusted net profit of RMB39m (+8% YoY -33% QoQ) was below our expectations due to

slower-than-anticipated ramp up in food-and-mouth disease vaccines (FMD) sales. Overall

revenue growth was healthy at 14% to RMB131m, supported by 4% and 95% growth from

compound chemical and biological animal drug divisions respectively, while GPM remained

stable at 76%. Although CAL has obtained qualification rights to distribute FMD vaccines in 10

provinces and municipalities and started to deliver its first batch of vaccines in Apr11, we see

downside risks to our previous FMD estimates. We revise downwards our FY11-FY12 revenue

projections by 13%-14% to RMB850m-RMB941m (old: RMB980m-RMB1097m), and now

expect lower net profit of RMB238m-RMB246m (old: RMB257m-RMB288m) that are 13%-20%

below consensus respectively. Our new derived TP of S$0.42 (old: S$0.48) is pegged to 7x

FY11F EV/EBITDA with implied P/E at 14x. Better showing from FMD vaccines in coming

quarters could provide near-term upside catalyst to share price. Maintain BUY.

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 03-Mar-2011 09:40) Posted:

Keep eye on this. Been quiet for  some time but steady and did not drop like other China stocks. May be stirring up  again.  

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 25-Feb-2011 09:32) Posted:



Another one from DMG. Target price 0.48c.

 



4Q10 reported net profit of RMB32m (-35% YoY +136% QoQ) was on 33% revenue growth to RMB176m, stable GPM at 75% and higher-than-expected HK dual-listing expenses of RMB43m (our estimates: RMB18m). FY10 revenue and recurring net profit of RMB590m and RMB182m were within our expectations of RMB597m and RMB186m respectively. Share price was down 16% since its HK listing on 21 Dec 10, in-line with dismal post-listing share price performances that we have observed for recent dual-listed counters. However, we see accumulation opportunity at current level as share price is likely to respond positively to earnings growth of 41% in FY11, driven by full-year contribution from food-and-mouth (FMD) and blue ear vaccines. Maintain BUY at TP of S$0.48, pegged to 7x FY11F EV/EBITDA (implied P/E of 15x). Healthy 4Q10 operating performance. 4Q10 revenue growth of 33% was largely driven by RMB43m contribution from new blue ear vaccines (3Q: RMB35m 2Q: RMB6m). Gross profit and operating margins were relatively stable at 75% and 45% (4Q09: 77% and 44%) respectively. FY10 operating cash flow was RMB133m and ending cash balance was RMB489m. Non-routine items in FY10. We do not expect a recurrence from some of the one-off items i.e. RMB19m non-cash charge for employee share scheme, RMB43m HK listing expenses and RMB5m professional fees for issue of convertible bonds. However, management highlighted that subsequent fair value adjustments (non-cash) to the derivative financial instruments relating to the conversion option component of convertible bonds may affect CAL’s results. Strong growth in FY11. We expect FY11 revenue to grow by 66% to RMB980m and EBITDA by 79% to RMB498m, with positive operating cash flow of RMB340m. Key revenue drivers are RMB280m from new FMD vaccines and an increase of RMB80m from blue ear vaccines, both with expected GPM of 75%.


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GuavaXF30
Master
03-Mar-2011 09:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Keep eye on this. Been quiet for  some time but steady and did not drop like other China stocks. May be stirring up  again.  

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 25-Feb-2011 09:32) Posted:



Another one from DMG. Target price 0.48c.

 



4Q10 reported net profit of RMB32m (-35% YoY +136% QoQ) was on 33% revenue growth to RMB176m, stable GPM at 75% and higher-than-expected HK dual-listing expenses of RMB43m (our estimates: RMB18m). FY10 revenue and recurring net profit of RMB590m and RMB182m were within our expectations of RMB597m and RMB186m respectively. Share price was down 16% since its HK listing on 21 Dec 10, in-line with dismal post-listing share price performances that we have observed for recent dual-listed counters. However, we see accumulation opportunity at current level as share price is likely to respond positively to earnings growth of 41% in FY11, driven by full-year contribution from food-and-mouth (FMD) and blue ear vaccines. Maintain BUY at TP of S$0.48, pegged to 7x FY11F EV/EBITDA (implied P/E of 15x). Healthy 4Q10 operating performance. 4Q10 revenue growth of 33% was largely driven by RMB43m contribution from new blue ear vaccines (3Q: RMB35m 2Q: RMB6m). Gross profit and operating margins were relatively stable at 75% and 45% (4Q09: 77% and 44%) respectively. FY10 operating cash flow was RMB133m and ending cash balance was RMB489m. Non-routine items in FY10. We do not expect a recurrence from some of the one-off items i.e. RMB19m non-cash charge for employee share scheme, RMB43m HK listing expenses and RMB5m professional fees for issue of convertible bonds. However, management highlighted that subsequent fair value adjustments (non-cash) to the derivative financial instruments relating to the conversion option component of convertible bonds may affect CAL’s results. Strong growth in FY11. We expect FY11 revenue to grow by 66% to RMB980m and EBITDA by 79% to RMB498m, with positive operating cash flow of RMB340m. Key revenue drivers are RMB280m from new FMD vaccines and an increase of RMB80m from blue ear vaccines, both with expected GPM of 75%.


GuavaXF30      ( Date: 24-Feb-2011 12:06) Posted:



This one from DBS on CAL SP. Almost unanimous buy calls from all analysts. I know some not " choon" , but all ?

" Lower 4QFY10 net profit was expected due to several non-recurring charges. Excluding non-recurring items, FY10 net profit would have registered a

c.26% yoy growth. Feb tender for sale of FMD and PRRS vaccines should drive sales growth in FY11"

Maintain Buy, TP: S$0.45 unchanged
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GuavaXF30
Master
25-Feb-2011 09:32     
 
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 Alert Admin

Another one from DMG. Target price 0.48c.

 



4Q10 reported net profit of RMB32m (-35% YoY +136% QoQ) was on 33% revenue growth to RMB176m, stable GPM at 75% and higher-than-expected HK dual-listing expenses of RMB43m (our estimates: RMB18m). FY10 revenue and recurring net profit of RMB590m and RMB182m were within our expectations of RMB597m and RMB186m respectively. Share price was down 16% since its HK listing on 21 Dec 10, in-line with dismal post-listing share price performances that we have observed for recent dual-listed counters. However, we see accumulation opportunity at current level as share price is likely to respond positively to earnings growth of 41% in FY11, driven by full-year contribution from food-and-mouth (FMD) and blue ear vaccines. Maintain BUY at TP of S$0.48, pegged to 7x FY11F EV/EBITDA (implied P/E of 15x). Healthy 4Q10 operating performance. 4Q10 revenue growth of 33% was largely driven by RMB43m contribution from new blue ear vaccines (3Q: RMB35m 2Q: RMB6m). Gross profit and operating margins were relatively stable at 75% and 45% (4Q09: 77% and 44%) respectively. FY10 operating cash flow was RMB133m and ending cash balance was RMB489m. Non-routine items in FY10. We do not expect a recurrence from some of the one-off items i.e. RMB19m non-cash charge for employee share scheme, RMB43m HK listing expenses and RMB5m professional fees for issue of convertible bonds. However, management highlighted that subsequent fair value adjustments (non-cash) to the derivative financial instruments relating to the conversion option component of convertible bonds may affect CAL’s results. Strong growth in FY11. We expect FY11 revenue to grow by 66% to RMB980m and EBITDA by 79% to RMB498m, with positive operating cash flow of RMB340m. Key revenue drivers are RMB280m from new FMD vaccines and an increase of RMB80m from blue ear vaccines, both with expected GPM of 75%.


GuavaXF30      ( Date: 24-Feb-2011 12:06) Posted:



This one from DBS on CAL SP. Almost unanimous buy calls from all analysts. I know some not " choon" , but all ?

" Lower 4QFY10 net profit was expected due to several non-recurring charges. Excluding non-recurring items, FY10 net profit would have registered a

c.26% yoy growth. Feb tender for sale of FMD and PRRS vaccines should drive sales growth in FY11"

Maintain Buy, TP: S$0.45 unchanged

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 24-Feb-2011 10:37) Posted:

This is one of the few quality pennies around I feel. Results have continuously been on the uptrend and it straddles two key component industries. Food production and health care. Am vested and will vest, more resources willingly
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GuavaXF30
Master
24-Feb-2011 12:06     
 
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This one from DBS on CAL SP. Almost unanimous buy calls from all analysts. I know some not " choon" , but all ?

" Lower 4QFY10 net profit was expected due to several non-recurring charges. Excluding non-recurring items, FY10 net profit would have registered a

c.26% yoy growth. Feb tender for sale of FMD and PRRS vaccines should drive sales growth in FY11"

Maintain Buy, TP: S$0.45 unchanged

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 24-Feb-2011 10:37) Posted:

This is one of the few quality pennies around I feel. Results have continuously been on the uptrend and it straddles two key component industries. Food production and health care. Am vested and will vest, more resources willingly.

kiasiDBT      ( Date: 24-Feb-2011 10:07) Posted:

From DMG:

China Animal Healthcare reported 33% growth in 4Q10 revenue to RMB176m (FY10: RMB591m, +35% YoY) but 45% contraction in net profit to RMB27m (FY10: RMB120m, -24% YoY). Excluding two key non-routine expenses of RMB43m for HK dual-listing expenses and RMB19m for employee share scheme, FY10 net profit would have been RMB182m.

Our thoughts: The HK listing expenses of RMB43m was higher than our expectation of RMB18-20m. Excluding non-routine items, FY10 recurring net profit of RMB182m was higher than our
estimates of RMB174m.

Maintain BUY at TP S$0.48.
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GuavaXF30
Master
24-Feb-2011 10:37     
 
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 Alert Admin 		This is one of the few quality pennies around I feel. Results have continuously been on the uptrend and it straddles two key component industries. Food production and health care. Am vested and will vest, more resources willingly.

kiasiDBT      ( Date: 24-Feb-2011 10:07) Posted:

From DMG:

China Animal Healthcare reported 33% growth in 4Q10 revenue to RMB176m (FY10: RMB591m, +35% YoY) but 45% contraction in net profit to RMB27m (FY10: RMB120m, -24% YoY). Excluding two key non-routine expenses of RMB43m for HK dual-listing expenses and RMB19m for employee share scheme, FY10 net profit would have been RMB182m.

Our thoughts: The HK listing expenses of RMB43m was higher than our expectation of RMB18-20m. Excluding non-routine items, FY10 recurring net profit of RMB182m was higher than our
estimates of RMB174m.

Maintain BUY at TP S$0.48.
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kiasiDBT
Veteran
24-Feb-2011 10:19     
 
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 Alert Admin 		From Kim Eng's " 2011 7 top small cap picks"

To grow is to be glorious

China Animal Healthcare provides vaccination drugs for domestic meat animals in China – the potential for high earnings growth but are not yet priced as such.

This therefore opens the way for ahead‐ of‐ the‐ curve investors to make supernormal returns.

China Animal Healthcare – the healing touch

Rising meat consumption, along with higher animal drug penetration and the strong likelihood of industry consolidation, is expected to keep China’sanimal drug sector boiling over.

In our view, this sector holds tremendous promise for many years to come and CAH is well‐ positioned to ride this rising trend.

The company has set its sights on capturing a bigger market share through selling a wider range of products to retailers and expanding its current pool of sales and technical personnel.

It will also invest more in research and development to stay ahead of competition. The improving prospects notwithstanding, we believe its share price has yet to catch up with its pre‐ crisis valuations.
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