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BIO-TREAT TECHNOLOGY LIMITED
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FearAndGreed
Member |
14-Feb-2007 10:15
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UBS analyst put a report out today reiterating a buy rating. They rasisd their price target from .76 to .88 based on forward PE of 10X. They believe earnings have normalized and do not see financing as a major issue. The also are not concerned about the cash draw as it was expected for funding current projects. Two newer items that I haven't seen mentioned before, one positive and one negative: 1) Implied in the order book is that the co has secured roughly RMB344m of turnkey projects. This is a positive as the margin is higher on turnkey and the capex is less. 2) BIOT management indicates that the Chinese tax authority may standardize the tax rat at 25% which would take away the ability to negotiate tax concessions. UBS has been assuming progressively higher tax rates as concessions expired but if true it would mean projects from 2008 will not have any tax kickers. Overall they expect 16% reevenue rowth and 11% profit growth. This report more or less matches with my own view. I do believe that the lack of announcement on the governance issue is creating an artificial overhang on the stock. I believe this will be clarified later this month and I am still expecting the stock to move up gradually as it climbs the wall of worry. It may tend to outperform the STI if the market pulls back because at a 50% PE discount to the market it could actually be defensive. |
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FearAndGreed
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12-Feb-2007 17:41
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Citigroup maintinaed a sell rating on BIOT. They appear to be most concerned about margin pressure and management credibility. Their price target is .71 cents. In their report they identify some "unattractive statistics" citing negative FCF and increasing gearing, and increasing receivable days. My view is that these are to be expected because the cash is invested in projects. In a growing business investment and leverage can be a positive thing. I believe it makes a lot of sense to lever up the balance sheet to conduct a higher volume of business. If we are to take the management at its word, their plan is to cherry pick the best yielding opportunities rather than attempt to overexpand. Also the 'Other operating expense line' turns out to be unrealized forex loss. i.e. not an ongoing operational cost. He also cites a decline in EBITDA Margin from 38% to 33% as a concern but this is less of a problem than it seems because after adding back the FX loss, the EBITDA marginw ould have been 35.2, the difference due mainly to slihgtly higher advertising expenses and increased overhead from project companies. Gross margin was basically unchanged from last quarter at 43%. They revised their fully diluted EPS down by 1.1% and 1.4% for 07/08 respectively. Some text from the Citigroup Analyst: We maintain our Sell/Speculative Rating due to (1) board room uncertainties, (2) lower returns for BOT contracts, which average 11-12% currently, versus about 15-17% previously, (3) margin pressure on potential turnkey contracts as BIOT penetrates new markets, (4) rising taxes, and (5) continued CB amortization, higher gearing and interest expense. We adjust our earnings estimates post 1H FY07 results.
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bunbun
Senior |
12-Feb-2007 12:08
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hahaha. jackjames, we ban jin ba liang :) but i luckier than you. i got 10-lots at 0.75. heh! |
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jackjames
Elite |
12-Feb-2007 11:53
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ha ha, me too.. I bought 4 lots at 0.845.. just want to throw as soon as possible too.. |
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bunbun
Senior |
12-Feb-2007 11:30
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ya, results not fantastic leh. wonder if it will hinder the possible upward movement of Biot. i been in this counter since last year so can't wait to offload it. dear lewsh88, me still learning to curb greed. no need to wiat till $1. if can reach past $0.80, i happy liao :) |
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jackjames
Elite |
12-Feb-2007 08:43
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hey all, I just read the results, it is not that good what.. walau, make me happy for a while only...Today maybe drop somemore lei... wakau.. |
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jackjames
Elite |
12-Feb-2007 08:39
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vested too. But lewsh88, I am not that optimistic than you, I just wish it hit 0.84 first, then, lets talk about it... It is because 0.84 is a critical resistance we need to break first. |
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FearAndGreed
Member |
12-Feb-2007 08:39
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Singaporegal, could you tell us what price would need to be achieved for your analysis to suggest BIOT is on the uptrend? |
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FearAndGreed
Member |
12-Feb-2007 08:37
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Heh, thank me if we all make money. Just to clarify my note, EPS is.18 CNY, not SGD. The SGD EPS is about .0356 SGD or full year .0731 SGD cents which puts P/E at yesterday's price of 73.5 cents at 10.0X. |
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lewsh88
Senior |
12-Feb-2007 08:22
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Thanks FearAndGreed. Vested. Looking forward to 1.00. Kong Xi Fa Cai |
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FearAndGreed
Member |
12-Feb-2007 08:10
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Earnings out: Looks decent EPS is .18 for half year vs .19 cent comparable last year. (The big decline occured 2H last year so this is pretty much business as usual with a modest increase in revenue). Net profit decline looks due to 'Other Operating Expense' Not sure what this is but since this category is usually this might be related to a settlement? Just my speculation. My recommendation: BUY with upside to 1.00 to 1.10. With all due respect to TA comments, I believe the last two weeks are not really good data because the stock was idling before this important earnings release. Financial Highlights in RMB?m 6 months ended 31 Dec 2006 6 months ended 31 Dec 2005 Change (%) Revenue 712.7 634.9 +12.3 Gross Profit 309.6 273.6 +13.2 Operating Profit 206.2 196.2 +5.1 Net Profit 156.5 166.4 -6.0 From the Company: The increase in finance expense from RMB4.1 million in 1HFY2006 to RMB27.3 million in 1HFY2007 was mainly due to the notional interest expense related to CB . The increase in other operating expenses from RMB313,000 in 1HFY2006 to RMB20.8 million in 1HFY2007 was mainly due to the provision of foreign exchange (forex) loss as a result of flunctuation of RMB against SGD and HKD. During the period under review, there was an unrealized forex loss resulting from weakening of RMB vs SGD (related to CB payable in SGD) as well as strengthening of RMB vs HKD (related to HKD deposit in HK) . Profit after tax decreased by 6% from RMB166.4 million in 1HFY2006 to RMB156.5 million in 1HFY2007 mainly due to the increase in administrative expenses , other operating expenses and finance expenses during the current financial period. The increase in administrative expenses by 30% from RMB30.3 million in 1HFY2006 to RMB39.4 million in 1HFY2007 was mainly due to the increase in the number of project companies in 1HFY2007. The decrease in distribution expenses by 24% from RMB28.1 million in 1HFY2006 to RMB21.3 million in 1HFY2007 was due to the decrease in advertising expenses which were partially shared with distributors in 1HFY2007. Revenue from wastewater treatment services in 1HFY2007 increased by 6% from RMB529.6 million in 1HFY2006 to RMB563.7 million in 1HFY2007, representing 79% of the total revenue. The remaining 21% came from i) discharging fees received from BOT/TOT projects and ii) the sale of BMS products including BMS mobile toilets, BMS rubbish processors and accessories. Income Statement For 1HFY2007, the Group's revenue rose by 12% from RMB634.9 million in 1HFY2006 to RMB712.7 million in 1HFY2007, whereas net profit decreased by 6% from RMB166.4 million in 1HFY2006 to RMB156.5 million in 1HFY2007. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
11-Feb-2007 19:53
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Hi Humulas, Hopefully I'm wrong in the TA readings for this one! Let's see what happens in the next few days. |
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jackjames
Elite |
11-Feb-2007 17:06
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vested. Hulumas, finally we met again... same team ya, hee.. |
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Hulumas
Supreme |
11-Feb-2007 12:45
Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!" |
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Dear Singaporegal, I am afraid, this time you are wrong! |
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novena_33
Veteran |
10-Feb-2007 17:03
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Hi Singaporegal.... u seem to be very caution, i notice with some of ur calls....... with ur respect.... can share what the reason? chart say no good.. or some other thing..... STI too high.. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
09-Feb-2007 23:16
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Caution on this stock.... it may not be uptrending at all. But could just be moving sideways |
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chipchip66
Master |
09-Feb-2007 19:01
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up the uptrend towards $1.00 again! |
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ZhouYu
Member |
09-Feb-2007 15:23
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Hope it know when to wake up :) |
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jackjames
Elite |
09-Feb-2007 15:01
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Thank you. knigtrider, good info. |
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knightrider
Elite |
09-Feb-2007 14:41
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Franklin Resources, Inc. ("Franklin") raise their stake ! The change in the percentage level is the result of a series of transactions that occurred between the dates of December 21, 2006 and February 02, 2007. 43,884,612 to 53,665,612 (From 5.00 % To 6.05 %). Good Luck |
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