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SPC
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nickyng
Supreme |
25-Jan-2007 10:48
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relax man....let them buildup...US is sensing the diminishing of OIL supplies...already plan to create a new OIL reserve..doubling that of current one...oil price will be stable for sometimes....i read somewhere..they are accumulating the new reserve at 100,000 barrel per day...wonder if this is true? hee.. |
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giantlow
Master |
25-Jan-2007 10:44
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woohoo!!!! regarding this US crude oil inventories, i think they are bull shitting man. freezing winter yet their inventory still increasing. someone should audit their stocks man! |
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chinkiasu
Master |
25-Jan-2007 10:17
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i agree.. my layman way of looking at it is small traders who bought earlier at 4.1 taking profit.. & zao... I will sit this out for next few days .. anyway I note the US North east is going to experience the coldest winter in two years this weekend... |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
25-Jan-2007 10:01
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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A large upward spike yesterday will usually followed by correction today. If the correction is not too severe and with lower volumes than yesterday, then there's nothing much to worry about. |
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giantlow
Master |
25-Jan-2007 09:08
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Hmmm. SPC prices are down. wassup man? |
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jackjames
Elite |
25-Jan-2007 09:07
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agreed. The results is not good . buy price 4.30 now |
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nickyng
Supreme |
25-Jan-2007 09:04
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hee....guess who is the ga-rang to short now? hee....as expected...a non-event :D |
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NewGuy
Member |
25-Jan-2007 08:42
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Had buy SPC share around Dec 06. But I think base on the current EPS value of this stock . It may rise unless the oil prices play another major role again . |
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giantlow
Master |
25-Jan-2007 08:32
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it is interesting to note that while PATMI dropped, the revenue actually went up. this may suggest that SPC is working harder to find more customers or big contracts. (corresponding trade recievable are up too) might be good for the longer term. too bad the report didn't mentioned about revenue growth in aviation and maritime refuelling cos i think these 2 areas got profit growth potential |
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chipchip66
Master |
25-Jan-2007 08:10
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Agreed, SPC price will probably be up around $4.50 ++ but once xd, the price could slide or move up depending on core market conditions. |
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shplayer
Elite |
25-Jan-2007 08:02
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Hi All, I have been vested and following SPC since early 2004. Whilst the FY 06 results are disappointing when compared to FY 05, we should not take it as a bench mark. FY 05 was an exceptional year for SPC and is unlikey to be repeated. The 2005 refining margins were unprecedantly high and it was on the back of rising oil prices. FY05 growth over FY04 was also on the back of increasing their capacity of SRC from 33.33% to 50% and taking over BP's retail (petrol stations) outlets and LPG distribution services. Share dilution of 2.6% also contributed to the lower eps performance for FY06 Back to basics...at yesterday's closing of 4.36 P/E is 7.9X Div yield is 8.03% Tax Exempt. Today, you will be very hard pressed to find stocks with this PE and yield. |
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Livermore
Master |
25-Jan-2007 07:35
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To avoid getting "burnt", only buy warrants if you think mother share is going to go up. So best is at start of reversal not when it is still downtrending. The best is don't buy in so many lots first until your positions are "covered" ........... |
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chinkiasu
Master |
25-Jan-2007 02:57
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sorry typo error, because of jet lag.. I meant the warrant to touch 4.5 cents and the SPC stock to hit $4.70 soon.... |
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chinkiasu
Master |
25-Jan-2007 02:42
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yes giantlow, it was torment alright (in my case it was potentially 50k down the drain).. and I can really appreciate what you were going thro... I have always avoided warrants until a friend went for a course on it and got interested in SPC DB eCW070305 . He bought it at 8cts and so I thot I was going great buying it at 6 cts. And I am learning never to chase a warrant (unless you got superior info..) it is so different from trading a regular stock. At least you can console yourself with dividends or the fact that one day it will come back...I would consider myself very heng/even a miracle if I break even.. however I am still hopeful.. if elf is right, it looks like the warrant should touch 4.44 cts. tmr (my location time is GMT+3) and then using zhuge's point that Shell Refining trades at 9x, SPC should hit 4.7cts soon. btw, the fact that "a scheduled maintenance turnaround of a Residue Catalytic Cracker unit at SRC, that started in September, was completed in October" and the refinery should now operate more efficiently i.e lower cost or achieve better margins going forward. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
25-Jan-2007 01:24
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It reported a 29.5% fall in full year 2006 net profit due to a sharp drop in refining margins in the second half of the year.
SPC however, said it was optimistic over the outlook for 2007 when Asia's economic growth was likely to continue and boost demand and margins for petroleum products. "Regional demand for refined petroleum products is thus anticipated to remain robust and this, coupled with the projected tight refining capacity, will likely result in continued healthy refining margins in 2007," the company said in a statement. It earned a net profit of $284.6 million in 2006, compared with $403.6 million in 2005. That was lower than an average forecast of $313.3 million, according to Reuters Estimates' poll of three analysts. For 2007, analysts expect SPC to post a profit of $318.8 million. The statement said SPC achieved an average refining margin of just US$3.00 a barrel in the second half, compared with more than US$6.00 per barrel in the first half of 2006. "This was the result of slowing regional demand growth coupled with the high inventories of crudes and refined petroleum products globally. The late northern winter also contributed to the weaker refining margins in the second half," it said. SPC's major asset is its 285,000 bpd refinery, SRC -- a 50-50 joint venture between the company and Chevron -- which mainly exports products to China and Southeast Asia. SPC said that a scheduled maintenance turnaround of a Residue Catalytic Cracker unit at SRC, that started in September, was completed in October and the refinery has since been operating at full capacity. SPC shares trade at 6.7x their 2007 forecast earnings. Among its Asian peers, Thai Oil PCL trades at about 6.8x earnings and Shell Refining, the Malaysian refining unit of Royal Dutch Shell, trades at 9.7x. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
25-Jan-2007 00:42
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oh hullo. wasn't expecting the special divvy. not bad. think spc can clear 4.44 tmrw. |
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KiLrOy
Master |
25-Jan-2007 00:29
Yells: "I buy only what I can see." |
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Giant, heres your news. Inventories up so oil price slides. [15:34 US ECON: Oil Inventories Up 0.7M Brls; Gasoline Up 4.0M Brls] Boston, January 24. The EIA reported that crude oil inventories for the week of January 19 rose by 0.7 mln barrels. This was followed by an addition of 6.8 mln barrels in the prior week. This is the second straight rise after a seven-week drop in inventories. Crude inventories were up 1.0% from its year-ago level. Crude oil futures eased 64 cents to $54.40 a barrel after reaching highs overnight. Gasoline inventories rose 4 mln barrels, the biggest since September 2006. This is up 2.8% from a year ago. Distillate inventories rose by 0.7 mln barrels. The government made no additions to the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) for the third straight week. The current SPR to inventories ratio fell to 2.142 from 2.188. This is the lowest in a month. The Bush administration yesterday, said it plans to add 100,000 barrels a day to the SPR by the spring of this year. Gasoline consumption shrunk for the third straight week by 0.6%. Distillate consumption rose 3.2%, the biggest rise since November. Petroleum product consumption rose 0.8% after a 3.3% rise in the prior week. Myra.Dsouza@thomson.com |
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KiLrOy
Master |
25-Jan-2007 00:21
Yells: "I buy only what I can see." |
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15:27 US TECHS: Commodities Outlook; Gold and Oil] Boston, January 24. Important developments occurred in both these markets yesterday. [Gold] broke firmly past early Dec/Jan downtrends, triggering a new bullish Trend Intensity signal from the highly trend-ready level of 12. See 8033 Even with the current $4 loss, T/I will uptick favorably again. Today"s low just under $641 retested that formerly unbroken Dec/Jan trendline, which now acts as support. Monthly targets mentioned yesterday are in the $652.50-660 region, where trading accounts can consider partial profits on longs. Short-term traders should note current intraday resistance at $643-644.50. On nearest futures charts, $650-55 is a major reference zone, and a push past should be very positive. Yesterday"s strong surge in [oil] reached key reference floors set just after mid-November, and the market is pausing today. Tuesday"s advance was sufficient to topple the amazingly firm bearish Trend Intensity signal in oil, which saw seven consecutive double upticks as prices were plummeting. Given the severity of the decline since July 2006 peaks were set, a base-building exercise has in all likelihood commenced--though given the nature of the market, it will be anything but smooth. An attempt to retest Mar contract floors (near $51/barrel) should be strongly considered, and ability to hold above will usher in a sharper upside correction towards next reference levels around $60/barrel. Joel.Marver@thomson.com /cm |
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giantlow
Master |
24-Jan-2007 23:30
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my target price is still slightly below $5. i think US is releasing some key data on 25 Jan rite? need to watch for it eeh. btw, where is my good fren, elf, ah? |
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giantlow
Master |
24-Jan-2007 23:26
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chinkiasu... so sorry to hear that u also suffered the same torment that i suffered one of the reason why i bought SPC DB eCW070305 is becos i know that the results will be out in Jan but the dividend payment will only be in May. this means that the share will not go ex-dividend before the warrent expires. when times are good, companies tends to make bigger provisions so that when times are bad, they can release the provisions to ease the impact of the bad times. (look at huge trade recievables provisions). i am not accusing SPC of anything hor. basically, financial results tell us how the company perform for the past year, but share prices are expectations of how the company will perform in future. the 35cents dividend will certainly add to short term bullish sentiment for SPC, but a lot of it will still depend on crude oil prices. |
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