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boyikao3
Master

12-Dec-2009 15:42

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Yes, CW is also right on this. EWI did point out about the "All the same market" view on this carry trade. But EWI did not mean that they will all collapse at the same time when USDI reverse direction. That's why in my previous post, I noted that there already signs of decoupling between major world indices when the USDI was starting to make a bottom about 2 weeks ago. A 'B' wave bear rally is a phoney bull - that means investors' sentiments are at their most clouded and full of illusions and optimism. Such a wave does not die easily and immediately even when all odds are against them. But eventually when it dies, those who are still in long positions will be caught totally unaware and it will be a frightening experience not meant for the weak hearted. Smiley

CWQuah ( Date: 12-Dec-2009 11:54) Posted:

Phil,

You might also be interested in the USD index chart on this site. It is one reason why I share a similar view with boyikao on USD. As to whether there is more significant impact on US equity mkts, there are additional factors to consider (e.g. how strong was the USD carry trade etc, to what degree will USD appreciation make owning USD-denominated securities worthwhile etc).

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

Philgoh57 ( Date: 12-Dec-2009 10:03) Posted:

Thanks, boyikao3 and kahchuan. Only found this out a while ago.

U.S. Dollar Index http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index

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CWQuah
Master

12-Dec-2009 11:54

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Phil,

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

Philgoh57 ( Date: 12-Dec-2009 10:03) Posted:

Thanks, boyikao3 and kahchuan. Only found this out a while ago.

U.S. Dollar Index http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index

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Philgoh57
Member

12-Dec-2009 10:03

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Thanks, boyikao3 and kahchuan. Only found this out a while ago.

U.S. Dollar Index http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index

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boyikao3
Master

12-Dec-2009 09:51

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USDI is the dollar index, formed by tracking the other 6 mjor currencies. This has been the wait of the year indeed! Last night a clear 5 impulsive waves can be seen. This means that the clock already striked 12 last week ! Next, expect the USDI to have a 3 wave decline that should corect its first wave in fibonnacci numbers sequence (1/2, 1/3, 1/5, up to 100% of wave 1). All other currencies and the stock market should rise with this USDI correction of its first complete wave. Then, make a guess in what the next wave in USDI will be ????? Smiley

Philgoh57 ( Date: 12-Dec-2009 00:47) Posted:

May i ask what USDI r u refering to? Do u mean USDJPY or USDEUR or USDSGD or all three?

Is 3rd wave the last wave before 2359? Then expect to see 鸡飞狗走

boyikao3 ( Date: 11-Dec-2009 23:11) Posted:

A super mini 3rd wave rally is starting now in the USDI. US indices will probably go either turn at this point or move to 10550 (DOW) and move in tandem with the USDI for a stretch before the clock strikes 12 ! Then pumpkins and rats everywhere! Smiley

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kahchuan
Member

12-Dec-2009 02:17

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USDI http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d1

gold is having a big opposite wave as well ...

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Philgoh57
Member

12-Dec-2009 00:47

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May i ask what USDI r u refering to? Do u mean USDJPY or USDEUR or USDSGD or all three?

Is 3rd wave the last wave before 2359? Then expect to see 鸡飞狗走

boyikao3 ( Date: 11-Dec-2009 23:11) Posted:

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cyjjerry85
Elite

12-Dec-2009 00:07

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so confident ah handon?

10.8 is 0.4 mark away from ur target

handon ( Date: 11-Dec-2009 22:18) Posted:

2nd week liao.... DOW should be 10.55....

10.8 END DEC.... else quit quit quit.... hehe.... Smiley

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handon
Master

11-Dec-2009 23:54

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one word to describe.... SONG.... hehe.... Smiley

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boyikao3
Master

11-Dec-2009 23:11

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Bon3260
Supreme

11-Dec-2009 22:44

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Hi Handon,

U really think dat Dow'll climb abv 10,500pts end of tis yr? But how cm I dun really think dat it'll climb 2 dat level... & even STI too, pple said dat it'll climb 3,000pts end of tis yr. 4 me, if STI can remain @ 2,800pts. I'm really v v happy liao...

Btw, I saw u were in Pfood's Forum posting b4. I found sth really dun understand. Y tis BBs hv collected so many stocks @ 0.60 today?

P05 (PFood)

WEIGHTED AVG PRICE : 0.6000	LAST DONE PRICE : 0.600
SPREAD/PRICE RATIO : 0.0000	AVG TRADE SIZE : 38.636

Last

Trades

Vol

BuyVol

Mid

SellVol

0.600

1,700

145

1,555

TOTAL

1,700

145

1,555

handon ( Date: 11-Dec-2009 22:18) Posted:

2nd week liao.... DOW should be 10.55....

10.8 END DEC.... else quit quit quit.... hehe.... Smiley

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handon
Master

11-Dec-2009 22:18

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2nd week liao.... DOW should be 10.55....

10.8 END DEC.... else quit quit quit.... hehe.... Smiley

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niuyear
Supreme

11-Dec-2009 13:03

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Wow, China Mobile group....... China Mobie group boosts world’s largest mobile network and the world’s largest mobile subscriber base. In 2008, the Company was once again selected as one of the "FT Global 500" by Financial Times and "The World’s 2000 Biggest Public Companies" by Forbes magazine, and was recognized on the Dow Jones Sustainability Indexes ("DJSI") listed on the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE") and The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited ("HKEx") on 22 October 1997 and 23 October 1997, respectively. The Company was admitted as a constituent stock of the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong on 27 January 1998.

AK_Francis ( Date: 14-Oct-2009 17:06) Posted:

Ha ha, talking about DOW10k cum STI just x 2700, a not bad moment to celebrate. Below just rcv fr email, for sharing:

Chinese Value Stocks! In DOW???

China's rapid economic growth will be the global story of the foreseeable future. Like the Japanese in 1980s, the Chinese are shopping for Hummer, IBM PC division, natural resources and real estate, etc.

In addition to growth, many investors look at emerging markets such as China as potential protection against falling dollars. No one wants to lose money any more after the market crash of last year, but neither can anyone afford to miss out potential huge growth ahead. Money is flying back to Chinese stocks causing valuations to rise rapidly. Are there still windows of opportunity left?

I went though all Chinese stocks listed in U.S. stock exchanges with market cap greater than $1 billion. Below are 19 with positive P/Es (sorted by P/E):

Name	Symbol	P/E	Mkt cap	% Chg. From 52wk Low
Aluminum Corp of China	(ACH)	7.9	16.02B	410%
China Petroleum &	(SNP)	9.7	76.75B	191%
Yanzhou coal mining	(YZC)	11.1	7.47B	376%
China Mobile Ltd	(CHL)	12.2	199.92B	145%
PetroChina Co Ltd	(PTR)	13.6	221.75B	215%
Sohucom Inc	(SOHU)	14.6	2.47B	189%
CNOOC Limited	(CEO)	15.3	65.35B	264%
Shanda Interactive	(SNDA)	15.5	3.22B	243%
Guangshen Railway	(GSH)	17.7	2.97B	161%
NetEasecom, Inc	(NTES)	20.1	5.23B	270%
Perfect World Co, Ltd	(PWRD)	20.7	2.15B	497%
Trina Solar Limited	(TSL)	26.1	1.03B	618%
Mindray Medical Intl	(MR)	29.0	3.24B	244%
SINA Corp(USA)	(SINA)	32.8	2.08B	216%
China Life Insurance	(LFC)	40.6	129.73B	206%
New Oriental Edu	(EDU)	52.0	3.14B	217%
Ctripcom Intl, Ltd	(CTRP)	57.4	4.14B	377%
Baidu, Inc	(BIDU)	83.4	14.61B	420%
Home Inns & Hotels	(HMIN)	108.8	1.34B	483%

The top 9 stocks in the list have a P/E ratio of less than 18. They seem to still be reasonably priced, even though some of them have bounced back more than 400% from their 52-week-lows. These 9 inexpensive stocks are in 3 sectors: commodity, technology and railroads.

Commodity

ACH, SNP, YZC, PTR and CEO are all commodity related. Although the worst is likely behind the commodity sector, weakness might persist as long as excess supply does.

A study published in Journal of Investing, spring 2009 issue found that adding a significant allocation to commodities substantially improves portfolio performance. The performance is more dramatic for indirect investment via the equities of companies than for direct investment in the commodities themselves. Gold consistently provides a greater benefit than either platinum or silver. The findings are consistent during much of the 34-year study period.

Below are comparisons between Chinese oil & gas stocks to Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM). As you can see, Chinese oil giants don’t have a clear advantage over Exxon Mobil:

Metric	SNP	PTR	CEO	XOM
P/E	9.74	13.6	15.2	11.2
Operating Margin	5%	15%	40%	15%
Debt/Operating Cash Flow	3.1	1.0	0.3	0.2

Technology

China Mobile Ltd (CHL) is a Chinese mobile-phone providers that has a huge cash stockpile it can use to continue expand. Below are comparisons between CHL and AT&T (T):

Metric	CHL	T
P/E	12.2	12.7
Operating Margin	33%	18%
Debt/Operating Cash Flow	0.1	2.1

With a higher operating margin and a much lower debt load, CHL is clearly in a much better position. Also, it doesn’t have huge goodwill sitting in its balance sheet, like AT&T does. The Goodwill results in AT&T’s negative Net Tangible Assets.

SOHU and SNDA both have much higher growth rates than CHL, though they also have higher short ratios.

Railroads

Below is a comparison between Guangshen Railway (GSH) and Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (BNI). No wonder Warren Buffett prefers BNI.

Metric	GSH	BNI
P/E	17.6	14.0
Operating Margin	14%	24%
Debt/Operating Cash Flow	2.4	2.6

ETFs

The followings are mainly China related ETFs/ETNs, including short and currency:

Fund Name	Ticker	Net Assets	Portfolio P/E
iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index	FXI	11.30B	14.6
SPDR S&P China	GXC	455.46M	17.0
PowerShares Gldn Dragon	PGJ	439.50M	16.1
UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China25	FXP	269.93M
Claymore/AlphaShares China Small Cap	HAO	182.13M	15.4
WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan	CYB	136.81M
Claymore China Real Estate	TAO	79.43M	16.0

The most popular one is FXI, which owns 25 mature, state-owned and too-big-to-fail Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong.

Small Cap

Superior growth usually comes from small to mid-cap stocks. I lowered the criteria to include any profitable Chinese stocks with a market cap greater than $100 million. Jinpan International Ltd. (JST) engages in the design and manufacture of cast resin transformers for voltage distribution equipment in China. Its P/E is 9, PEG is 0.56, debt/operation cash flow is less than 1, and short ratio is very low. However, the market cap is only $250M.

Conclusion

Investors usually have short-term memories. We seem to be driven by the most recent market rally, conveniently forgetting the lessons of last year. Hot markets eventually cool, and most investors don't catch on until it's too late.

Investors do have a habit of buying hot stocks. If a stock can be up 400% over the last 12 months, it could also be down 75% in the next 52 weeks. However, if you can tolerate this kind of risk, and have a very long invest horizon, you might want to consider these profitable and still relatively inexpensive Chinese companies presented above.

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williamyeo
Senior

10-Dec-2009 23:37

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DJIA trying 10,500 again

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louis_leecs
Elite

10-Dec-2009 23:37

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big boy just wanna to shake you out and punt hight,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,history repeat again,,,,,,,,,,,,,,just patience and wait,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,see,,,,,,,they go in again,,,,,,,,,,they also wanna earn money wah,,,,,,,,,,,,,so 11000point just ikan bily,,,,,,,,,,,,,,they want shark fin,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,so,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

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handon
Master

10-Dec-2009 23:25

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Time to load up again.... hehe.... Smiley

rebound for sure.... Smiley

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Cross_Stitch
Member

10-Dec-2009 23:24

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Oh no! Now down to only 40+ points. sigh if only it has gone up 140+ points.

So how tomorrow STI will cheong or not?

louis_leecs ( Date: 10-Dec-2009 22:48) Posted:

some one get ready to kick the ball in to 10500point,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,next stage bull is building,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,im q happy it will easy flood over 11000pont anytime at akan datang day of 2009,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,cheers

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louis_leecs
Elite

10-Dec-2009 22:48

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handon
Master

10-Dec-2009 22:42

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one word to describe..... SONG..... hehe... Smiley

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louis_leecs
Elite

10-Dec-2009 22:34

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yes,,,,,,,,hope everyone can joint the bull club,,,,,,,,,,,,,the bull is ready

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handon
Master

10-Dec-2009 22:16

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by today, DOW should be at 10.525.... catching up....

10.8 by Dec... else quit forum... hehe... Smiley

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