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Allgreen - Can buy ?
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iPunter
Supreme |
23-Oct-2009 22:13
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There's really little point in visualising a 'shoulder' forming... It has not formed yet, and thus only a possibility... But at the same time, it is also just as likely to rise ... The danger here is we see what we want to see...  ______________________________________________ Multiple Timeframe Technical Analysis (don't trade without it!) |
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marubozu1688
Veteran |
23-Oct-2009 21:48
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Watch out! Allgreen may be forming a right shoulder! http://mystocksinvesting.blogspot.com/2009/10/allgreen-forming-right-shoulder.html | ||
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erictkw
Veteran |
23-Oct-2009 20:30
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Allgreen, Keppel Land raised to ‘overweight’ at Morgan Stanley
Allgreen Properties and Keppel Land were named as Morgan Stanley’s top picks among Singapore real-estate developers on expectations residential property prices will rise as much as 15% next year. The brokerage raised Allgreen, controlled by Malaysian billionaire Robert Kuok, to “overweight” from equal-weight” and Keppel Land, partly owned by the world’s biggest builder of oil rigs, to “overweight” from “underweight,” Morgan Stanley analyst Melissa Bon wrote in a note today. “Keppel Land and Allgreen are our new sector top picks,” Bon wrote. “We recommend investors switch from City Developments and Wing Tai Holdings into these two stocks.” Singapore’s private residential property prices rose 16% in the third quarter from the previous three months, the first increase in more than a year, as the island-state’s economy emerged from its worst recession since independence. The government raised its 2009 economic forecast on Oct 12. CapitaLand, Southeast Asia’s biggest developer, was raised to “equal-weight” from “underweight.” Morgan Stanley kept its “underweight” rating on City Developments, Singapore’s second-biggest developer, and its “equal-weight” rating on Wing Tai. “Based on what the current valuations are pricing in, physical assets first need to play catch-up, which in our view may be difficult given the lukewarm macro outlook,” Bon wrote. |
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samloh28
Member |
22-Oct-2009 19:40
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Big Boys, Investors and Retail Investors know very well that Allgreen is undervalued. Now, Morgan Stanley ugrades Allgreen to S$ 1.65. Just making a simple comparison: Keppel Land, Net Asset Value S$ 2.33 per share, current share price (21 Oct 2009) : S$ 2.72, approx 17% or S$ 0.39 above its NAV. For Allgreen, Net Asset Value S$ 1.43 per share, current share price (21 Oct 2009) : S$ 1.16, approx 19% or S$ 0.27 below its NAV. All things being equal, there certainly will be upside to Allgreen price. And Allgreen likely to surprise on the upside for 2half profit 2009. Good luck. |
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erictkw
Veteran |
22-Oct-2009 16:47
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DJ MARKET TALK: MS Raises Allgreen Properties To Overweight 0653 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Morgan Stanley upgrades Allgreen Properties (A16.SG) to Overweight from Equal-weight. Says property developer is top small-cap pick in sector as offers good upside to base case net asset value, on which target price is based. Raises target price to S$1.65 from S$0.99 to reflect roll forward of valuation to end-2010 net asset value (NAV), upgrade to NAV to reflect more positive property price assumptions. Revises up FY09, FY10, FY11 earnings forecasts by 9%, 129%, 219%. Says share price catalysts could include stronger-than-expected residential uptake and selling prices in Singapore, exposure to China, Vietnam markets. Shares +0.9% at S$1.17; FTSE ST All Share index off 0.2%%. (KIG) |
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samloh28
Member |
03-Oct-2009 19:42
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Some interesting points for investors, BB or retail investors for Allgreen, which is approx 34% owned by Robert Kwok, richest man in Malaysia, through Kerry Investment. (as reported by ST about 2 weeks ago?) Net Asset Value per share : S$ 1.43. Now share price S$1.09 is trading at 26% discount to its NAV of S$ 1.43. Greater upside, less than 2 weeks ago, it touched S$ 1.30. EPS for half-year : 3.31cents, assuming 6.6 cents for whole year (very conservative, as Allgreen management stated that 2H 2009 is expected to be better than 1H 2009), assuming 20% growth, share price should be worth 6.6 x 20 = S$ 1.32. |
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Hulumas
Supreme |
02-Oct-2009 13:22
Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!" |
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No other good way, I plan to go for money cost averaging from Sgd. 1.15 till Sgd. 0.005.
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yipyip
Master |
01-Oct-2009 15:48
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1 October 2009 https://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2009/pr09-67.html URA releases flash 3rd quarter 2009 private residential property price index The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released today the flash estimate of the price index of private residential property for 3rd Quarter 2009. Based on the estimated price index of private residential property, prices rose from 133.3 points in the 2nd Quarter 2009 to 154.5 points in the 3rd Quarter 2009. This represents an increase of 15.9%, compared with the 4.7% decline in the p revious quarter (see Annex A). URA also released today the flash estimates of the price changes in the 3 geographical regions for 3rd Quarter 2009. Prices of non-landed private residential properties increased by 16.2% in Core Central Region, 19.1% in Rest of Central Region and 15.4% in Outside Central Region in the quarter (see Annex B). In comparison, for 2nd Quarter 2009, prices of non-landed private residential properties decreased by 5.2% in Core Central Region, 4.4% in Rest of Central Region and 2.3% in Outside Central Region. The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in caveats lodged during the first ten weeks of the quarter supplemented by information on the number of new units sold. The statistics will be updated 4 weeks later when URA releases the full 3rd Quarter 2009 real estate statistics, when more data on the caveats lodged and the take-up of new projects are captured. Past data have shown that there could be significant differences between the quarterly price changes indicated by the flash estimate and the actual price changes. The public is advised to interpret the flash estimates with caution. URA will continue to release relevant price sensitive information in a timely manner to allow the public to make informed decisions. On the supply side, the statistics on private residential units in the pipeline, which were last released in April 2009, will be updated in the 3rd Quarter 2009 Real Estate Statistics to be released on 23 October 2009. |
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yipyip
Master |
29-Sep-2009 11:02
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July & Aug'09 Singapore Segment Est Revenue: $514.1mln* ^One Devonshire (Devonshire Road) Total Number of Units in Project: 152 units Cumulative Units Launched to-date: 152 units Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 149 units GFA (sf): est 179,732 July'09 Units Sold: 5 units July'09 Est Revenue: 5 / 152 x 179,732sf x $1,732psf = $10.2mln* Aug'09 Units Sold: 1 unit Aug'09 Est Revenue: 1 / 152 x 179,732sf x $2,066psf = $2.4mln* ^Pavilion Park (Phase 2) (Bukit Batok Road) Total Number of Units in Project: 298 units Cumulative Units Launched to-date: 84 units Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 82 units GFA (sf): Per Intermediate Terrace: Gross Floor Area (Sq Ft) 2274 - 2298 July'09 Units Sold: 16 units July'09 Est Revenue: 16 x 2,286sf x $751psf = $27.5mln* Aug'09 Units Sold: 2 units Aug'09 Est Revenue: 2 x 2,286sf x $750psf = $3.4mln* ^VIVA (Suffolk Walk ) Total Number of Units in Project: 235 units Cumulative Units Launched to-date: 235 units Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 218 units GFA (sf):est 354,488 Aug'09 Units Sold:203 units Aug'09 Est Revenue: 203 / 235 x 354,488sf x $1,537psf = $470.6mln* ^www.ura.gov.sg |
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paul1688
Senior |
28-Sep-2009 20:43
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We can speculate whatever reason(s) for the current lull in Allgreen price even though I think it undervalued relative to peers. I see this period as a great period and opportunity for accumulation. Definitely vested for longer term, and not too concern or distracted by current price. Remarks : Just my view. Not enticement to buy. |
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tkimcs
Member |
28-Sep-2009 18:14
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still holding, have faith in this counter. | ||
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yipyip
Master |
28-Sep-2009 00:04
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Recommendations Allgreen Properties Limited Consensus Recommendation: Outperform Analyst Recommendations and Revisions: Last Updated: 26 Sep 2009 Current: (1) BUY: 4 (2) OUTPERFORM: 3 (3) HOLD: 3 (4) UNDERPERFORM: 1 (5) SELL: 0 Mean Rating 2.09 |
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yipyip
Master |
24-Sep-2009 13:05
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'If exports picked up on a strong US economic recovery in the first half of 2010, the key driving forces of China's economic growth would still be exports, property and investment,' (BT - REUTERS, 24 September 2009) Ba Shusong with the Development Research Centre, a think tank under the State Council, or cabinet, told the China Securities Journal that economic restructuring would become Beijing's top concern once it had revived growth. 'If exports picked up on a strong US economic recovery in the first half of 2010, the key driving forces of China's economic growth would still be exports, property and investment,' Mr Ba was quoted as saying. China has enjoyed annual growth of about 10 per cent in recent years, boosted by a surge in exports that has faded because of the global crisis. As a result, growth this year is likely to be closer to 8 per cent - too weak for comfort for China's leaders. 'If exports once again become a growth engine in 2010, China would be forced to buy more dollar assets for its foreign exchange reserves. The imbalance between the Chinese and US economy would remain,' Mr Ba said. China could be enjoying double-digit growth again by early 2010 but at the cost of the persistence of economic imbalances, a government economist said in remarks published on Thursday..... |
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yipyip
Master |
24-Sep-2009 11:03
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Est profit of $336.8mln for two projects, AG 2H P&L will be achieve very pleasing result! est. profit todate for VIVA project is about $222,637,216 est. profit todate for The Cascadia project is about $114,221,670 |
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daphnecsf
Senior |
24-Sep-2009 00:38
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My est. profit todate for The Cascadia project is about $114,221,670 Project: The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road) (From CIMB 28Aug09) GFA (sf):614,095 Est ASP(S$psf)1,350 Est.breakeven(S$psf)730 Est.Profit : 614,095 x ($1350-$730) = $380,738,900 Total Number of Units in Project: 536Units *Cumulative Units Launched to-date: 187Units *Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 187Units Est.Profit for Cumulative Units Sold todate = $380,738,900x 30% sold = $114,221,670 |
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daphnecsf
Senior |
24-Sep-2009 00:08
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My est. profit todate for VIVA project is about $222,637,216. Project:VIVA Launch on 3Aug2009 Location: No. 2, 6 & 8 Suffolk Walk (From CIMB 28Aug09) GFA (sf):354,488 Est ASP(S$psf)1,550 Est.breakeven(S$psf)873 Est.Profit : 354,488 x ($1550-$873) = $239,988,376 Total Number of Units in Project: 235 units Cumulative Units Sold todate: 218 units (92.77% SOLD, From CIMB 16Sep09) Est.Profit for Cumulative Units Sold todate = $239,988,376 x 92.77% = $222,637,216 |
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daphnecsf
Senior |
23-Sep-2009 15:48
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Yanlord +0.07 now, Allgreen have 30% portfolio in China project, hope it will catch up the uptrend today. | ||
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daphnecsf
Senior |
23-Sep-2009 00:51
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China's Property sector will remain positive ! China home prices up 2 pct in August amid recovery Associated Press 2009-09-10 Housing prices in China rose for a third month in August, adding to signs of the country's economic recovery, a government report said Thursday. Prices in August climbed 2 percent from a year earlier and 0.9 percent over July, according to the Cabinet's National Development and Reform Commission and the National Bureau of Statistics. The strength in the real estate market is in line with the country's broader economic recovery, economists said. China's economic growth accelerated to 7.9 percent in the latest quarter, up from 6.1 percent the previous quarter. "The outlook for China's property sector is positive," said Sherman Chan, Moody's Economy.com economist, in a report. Chan said the revival in momentum was primarily thanks to record bank lending this year on top of the government's 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan. But some analysts have warned the excessive lending might be fueling speculation in real estate and increasing the risk of a housing bubble. In August, the strongest reported price gains for new homes was 7.5 percent over a year earlier in the eastern city of Jinhua, south of Shanghai. The strongest reported gain for secondhand sales was 14.9 percent in the southern business center of Shenzhen. That was compared with 9.6 percent growth in July, a sign that the country's special economic zone is returning to business. Real estate shares reacted positively with COFCO Property Group up 0.8 percent and China Merchants Property Dev. Co. rising 1.1 percent. Associated Press researcher Bonnie Cao contributed to this report. |
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daphnecsf
Senior |
23-Sep-2009 00:38
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China's Property sector will remain positive ! China home prices up 2 pct in August amid recovery 2009-09-10 Housing prices in China rose for a third month in August, adding to signs of the country's economic recovery,a government report said Thursday.Prices in August climbed 2 percent from a year earlier and 0.9 percent over July, according to the Cabinet's National Development and Reform Commission and the National Bureau of Statistics.The strength in the real estate market is in line with the country's broader economic recovery, economists said. China's economic growth accelerated to 7.9 percent in the latest quarter, up from 6.1 percent the previous quarter."The outlook for China's property sector is positive," said Sherman Chan, Moody's Economy.com economist, in a report. |
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daphnecsf
Senior |
22-Sep-2009 16:45
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Sweet! :) +0.02 now! Heading North Side. 
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