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Midas

starlene
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28-Sep-2009 10:33

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As espected, can't go>90cts convincingly..look at Chian XLX shot to 60cts on announcement of dual listing in HK now back to 51cts,sold off all holdings of MIDAS and channnel funds to collect China Auto Electronics and Sinotel

keepnosecrets ( Date: 28-Sep-2009 10:09) Posted:

Too many failed attempts by Midas to break and stay above 90.5 and 91.5 beacons bad feelings for me. It will drop to <0.85 before it might try to stage another attempt. Hope the next round will do better.

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richtan
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28-Sep-2009 10:29

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Support at 0.865, centreline of uptrend channel (see my chart in earlier post), if break next support at 0.84 followed by 0.81.

All the trendlines ranging from 15ema to 65ema still trending up.

keepnosecrets ( Date: 28-Sep-2009 10:09) Posted:

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keepnosecrets
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28-Sep-2009 10:09

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Bintang
Elite

28-Sep-2009 06:55

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Hi richtan , u are welcomed , there are so many indicators n tools to help in analysing the charts , I would like to post in the forum to share with everyone who wants to know , just like what u have done to the forum .

richtan ( Date: 27-Sep-2009 23:19) Posted:

Hi Bintang,

Many thanks for your kind offer of help.

If there is any indicator tat is not available in chartnexus for which I need help, I will seek your kind help.

Thanks a lot, this is the beauty of a forum tat care n share n HUAT together less those ugly side tat makes a lot of distracting noises.

Bintang ( Date: 27-Sep-2009 19:12) Posted:

Hi richtan , thanks for your posting of explanation on Aroon indicator , I got this indicator from the metastock , please inform me what indicator u want , if I can get it from metastock , I will post it here for all who believe in TA to share

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richtan
Supreme

27-Sep-2009 23:58

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From Kim Eng:

Midas – Company update (James KOH 64321431)

Previous day closing price: $0.865

Recommendation: Buy (maintained)

Target price: $1.15 (Previously $0.985)

Still packing the theatre

We recently hosted a roadshow for Midas in the US, which was very well-received by funds.

The exciting growth prospects within the China rail infrastructure space continue to capture the
imagination, with the main discussion points being the competition within this space, the sustainability of growth for Midas and the progression on expansion.

A smaller share of the bigger pie

While Midas still holds a clear lead in terms of certification and track record,
management expects competition to intensify, with listed peers such as Shandong Nanshan (Shanghai) and Zhongwang (HK) stating their intentions to break into this market.

Going forward, they believe achieving a lower 50-60% market share of this growing pie would be a more reasonable target, which will still ensure strong growth.

Life after trains

Improving the rail infrastructure network is an important government initiative, with current directives providing clear visibility over the next 2-3 years. Even subsequent to the stimulus package, we expect this program to continue.

Over the longer term, management will look into other feasible, promising industries such as aviation to continue its growth.

Progress on the installation of 4th and 5th extrusion lines

We now expect the 4th and 5th extrusion lines to come on stream by 2Q09 and 4Q09, earlier than our earlier estimates.

Our model factors in Midas winning a 50%-60% market share of the upcoming round of orders, which is twice the size of the first round. This will already keep all its five extrusion lines busy at about 75% utilisation.

Much more tracks to run

We adjust our earnings to take into account higher effective capacity in FY10 and higher tax rates in FY11.

We now peg our target price to 20X FY10E.

We believe the Chinese rail industry is still at its early-mid cycle.

With the Ministry of Railway due to announce the 2nd round of high-speed train orders, we expect orders to flow down to Midas within 3-4 months

yipyip ( Date: 27-Sep-2009 23:46) Posted:

Recommendations for Midas Holdings Limited
Consensus Recommendation: Outperform

Analyst Recommendations and Revisions:

Current:
(1) BUY:                           3
(2) OUTPERFORM:          1
(3) HOLD:                         1
(4) UNDERPERFORM:     0
(5) SELL:                           0

Mean Rating 1.60

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richtan
Supreme

27-Sep-2009 23:55

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From OCBC Investment Research:

Midas Holdings:

Evaluating listing in HK.

Maintain BUY.

Midas Holdings (Midas) announced today that it is planning a secondary listing of its shares on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange of HongKong.

Midas has appointed Credit Suisse (Hong Kong) to assist the group in evaluating and preparing for this listing.

Mr Patrick Chew, CEO, says that Midas "is now ready to take Midas towards the next development phase and is optimistic that a listing on both the Singapore and HongKong bourses will allow Midas to tap into a wider investor base, increase liquidity and enhance the stock value".

Hong Kong valuations tend to be richer and this could bode well for dual-listed Singapore stocks.

Maintain BUY, fair value of S$1.05.

(Kelly Chia)

yipyip ( Date: 27-Sep-2009 23:46) Posted:

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richtan
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27-Sep-2009 23:53

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From OCBC Investment Research:

Midas's firm order book of 1.4 billion yuan (S$296 million), more anticipated contract wins in Sept - Nov 2009... will serve to under-gird valuations"

yipyip ( Date: 27-Sep-2009 23:46) Posted:

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richtan
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27-Sep-2009 23:52

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From "Lim & Tan securities":

We remain positive on Midas given its robust
growth prospects, underpinned by its robust order
books of RMB1.4bln as well as the robust prospects
of its 32.5% owned subsidiary company, also
underpinned by solid order books of RMB4.5bln.

And this in turn reflects the government’s active
efforts to support the railcar industry in China to
reduce transportation bottlenecks as well as reduce
transportation costs. Rail transportation is much
cheaper than air travel and is much safer and causes
much less pollution than automotive transportation.

The company will be increasing their production
capacity by 200% in the next 2 years to cope with
the strong order flows. Its PE of 20x remains
undemanding compared to its expected growth rate
of 40-50%.

yipyip ( Date: 27-Sep-2009 23:46) Posted:

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richtan
Supreme

27-Sep-2009 23:49

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Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.

If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the rating system by intentionally rating it as "bad post", this is not cursing but Buddhism beliefs tat intentional bad deeds will accumulate for yourself and possibly your next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing. This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.

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yipyip
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27-Sep-2009 23:46

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richtan
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27-Sep-2009 23:46

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risktaker
Supreme

27-Sep-2009 23:25

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Yells: "Sometimes you think you know, but in fact you dont"

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if your into TA KE trade offer good indicators.

richtan ( Date: 27-Sep-2009 23:19) Posted:

Hi Bintang,

Many thanks for your kind offer of help.

If there is any indicator tat is not available in chartnexus for which I need help, I will seek your kind help.

Thanks a lot, this is the beauty of a forum tat care n share n HUAT together less those ugly side tat makes a lot of distracting noises.

Bintang ( Date: 27-Sep-2009 19:12) Posted:

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richtan
Supreme

27-Sep-2009 23:19

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Hi Bintang,

Many thanks for your kind offer of help.

If there is any indicator tat is not available in chartnexus for which I need help, I will seek your kind help.

Thanks a lot, this is the beauty of a forum tat care n share n HUAT together less those ugly side tat makes a lot of distracting noises.

Bintang ( Date: 27-Sep-2009 19:12) Posted:

richtan ( Date: 27-Sep-2009 17:17) Posted:

Hi Bintang,

Many thanks for sharing this indicator, which unfortunately is not available in chart nexus (is this in your metastock?)

Anyway, just to share about aroon indicator (very cheem, dun really understand their explanation, but fortunately, chartnexus has "ADX" (also trending up n above 20 with +DI above -DI:

Aroon Indicator

What Does Aroon Indicator Mean?
A technical indicator, developed by Tushar Chande in 1995, used for identifying trends in an underlying security and the likelihood that the trends will reverse. It is made up of two lines: one line is called "Aroon up", which measures the strength of the uptrend, and the other line is called "Aroon down", which measures the downtrend. The indicator reports the time it is taking for the price to reach, from a starting point, the highest and lowest points over a given time period, each reported as a percentage of total time. Both the Aroon up and the Aroon down fluctuate between zero and 100, with values close to 100 indicating a strong trend, and zero indicating a weak trend. The lower the Aroon up, the weaker the uptrend and the stronger the downtrend, and vice versa. The main assumption underlying this indicator is that a stock's price will close at record highs in an uptrend, and record lows in a downtrend.

Investopedia explains Aroon Indicator
For example, when a stock's closing price is equal to the highest price over the given period, the Aroon up will have a value of 100, which indicates that the time it has taken for the stock to reach its highest price has elapsed 100%, indicating a strong uptrend. In addition to extreme values, transaction decisions can be based on instances when the two lines cross. For example, when the Aroon up crosses up through the Aroon down, the stock is said to be in a new uptrend and should experience some upward momentum.

This indicator is very similar to the directional movement index (DMI) that was developed by Welles Wilder, which is also a very popular indicator used to measure the strength of a given trend.

Investopedia explains Directional Movement Index - DMI
The scale for the DMI is from 0 to 100. The average directional movement index (ADX) is a moving average of the DMI.

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aabbcc
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27-Sep-2009 22:13

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yea.. i look through the website.. they even have feature for fundamental analysis as well.. but it is expensive for me... only just started out in stocks... will consider in the future

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Juzztrade
Veteran

27-Sep-2009 22:03

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Yells: "Techincal and long term investor"

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If you are serious about making profit in the stock market, you should go ahead and buy the software. They had just released a new version.

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aabbcc
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27-Sep-2009 20:10

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kk :)

Bintang ( Date: 27-Sep-2009 19:46) Posted:

Of course must pay for the software as well as subscription fee every year .

aabbcc ( Date: 27-Sep-2009 19:30) Posted:

Is this metastock stock software free or do you need to pay for it?

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Bintang
Elite

27-Sep-2009 19:46

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Of course must pay for the software as well as subscription fee every year .

aabbcc ( Date: 27-Sep-2009 19:30) Posted:

Is this metastock stock software free or do you need to pay for it?

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aabbcc
Member

27-Sep-2009 19:30

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Is this metastock stock software free or do you need to pay for it?

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tkimcs
Member

27-Sep-2009 19:22

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newbies like me learn something new today, thanks.

Bintang ( Date: 27-Sep-2009 19:12) Posted:

richtan ( Date: 27-Sep-2009 17:17) Posted:

Hi Bintang,

Many thanks for sharing this indicator, which unfortunately is not available in chart nexus (is this in your metastock?)

Anyway, just to share about aroon indicator (very cheem, dun really understand their explanation, but fortunately, chartnexus has "ADX" (also trending up n above 20 with +DI above -DI:

Aroon Indicator

Investopedia explains Directional Movement Index - DMI
The scale for the DMI is from 0 to 100. The average directional movement index (ADX) is a moving average of the DMI.

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Bintang
Elite

27-Sep-2009 19:12

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richtan ( Date: 27-Sep-2009 17:17) Posted:

Hi Bintang,

Many thanks for sharing this indicator, which unfortunately is not available in chart nexus (is this in your metastock?)

Anyway, just to share about aroon indicator (very cheem, dun really understand their explanation, but fortunately, chartnexus has "ADX" (also trending up n above 20 with +DI above -DI:

Aroon Indicator

Investopedia explains Directional Movement Index - DMI
The scale for the DMI is from 0 to 100. The average directional movement index (ADX) is a moving average of the DMI.

Bintang ( Date: 27-Sep-2009 10:58) Posted:

Although Midas did not close above 90 cents on Friday , it did not derail the upward trend . By checking its monthly chart , the Aroon Up is at 100 , n the Aroon Down is at 21 , this indicates that the uptrend has just started from here . The same thing happened in 2006 , during the last bull run , the Aroon Up went up to 100 at Dec2005 n lasted for almost 3 years then went down to cross the Aroon Down in Mar2008, then the uptrend came to an end . Therefore , Midas long term uptrend may start from this month . ( Last bull run , Midas started from 36 cents n went all the way to $2.20 according to Aroon Up n Down .)

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