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Tat Hong Growing to a Global Player

yipyip
Master

10-Oct-2009 09:28

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From OCBC 7 Oct'09:    Tat Hong Holdings Ltd: On track for medium term growth
Fair Value(F):   $1.15
2010'(F) PE ratio: 11.979
Profit(F): $48,500,000.00
EPS(F): $0.096

  PE and Price List:
  PE: 11.979 Price: $1.15 Upside: 0.00%
  PE: 11.88 Price: $1.14 Upside: 0.88%
  PE: 11.77 Price: $1.13 Upside: 1.77%
  PE: 11.67 Price: $1.12 Upside: 2.68%
  PE: 11.56 Price: $1.11 Upside: 3.60%
  PE: 11.46 Price: $1.10 Upside: 4.55%
  PE: 11.35 Price: $1.09 Upside: 5.50%
  PE: 11.25 Price: $1.08 Upside: 6.48%
  PE: 11.15 Price: $1.07 Upside: 7.48%
  PE: 11.04 Price: $1.06 Upside: 8.49%
  PE: 10.94 Price: $1.05 Upside: 9.52%
  PE: 10.83 Price: $1.04 Upside: 10.58%
  PE: 10.73 Price: $1.03 Upside: 11.65%

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musicwhiz5
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07-Oct-2009 11:57

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Actually, a more rigorous approach to reviewing the performance of a company is ROE, rather than EPS. Of course, one must note that ROE also can be distorted through the use of leverage, so one must adjust for that.

I feel that what's important with AIF and Tat Hong is the synergies which they can achieve which go far beyond what the Balance Sheet can currently quantify. There is a lot of business relationships, network, Guanxi and contacts which can be shared, and analysts are loathe to put a value to this because it is an intangible aspect of the business. Truth is, with AIF's experience and their status as a pro-Asian Private Equity Fund, this will help to extend Tat Hong's footprint in S.E.A, in the long-term.

I would caution not to expect miracles or immediate results from this partnership. It will probably only bear more fruit in 2-3 years time as Tat Hong grows its China footprint. One must be patient to witness the growth of a business. Rome was not built in a day.

Also, by reviewing the terms of the RCPS, it will become extremely onerous for Tat Hong after the 5th year. This demonstrates that they have the confidence for the business to do well enough in 5 years time, so that a substantial portion (if not all) of the RCPS will be converted mandatorily to ordinary shares. Thus the dilution to EPS is delayed, though the dilution to dividend will be immediate. But I see it as cash inflow now to build a business, increase ROE and cash flows, strengthen Balance Sheet, then return the favour back to AIF and minority shareholders.

Just my 2-cents views.

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Alligator
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07-Oct-2009 08:55

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From OCBC

Partnering AIF Capital for growth. Tat Hong Holdings Ltd (Tat Hong)
hosted a joint analyst briefing with its new strategic shareholder AIF Capital
yesterday. Key takeaways from this briefing include: (i) Tat Hong's medium
term growth strategy, driven by its Tower Crane segment, remains on track,
(ii) AIF Capital's strategic investment will not only strengthen its balance
sheet, but also introduce new inorganic growth opportunities, and (iii) the
worst is over in terms of its operating environment. To recap, AIF Capital
recently invested S$65.0m in exchange for a 11.4% stake in Tat Hong,
coupled with a non-executive board representation. We view its strategic
investment positively as AIF Capital can leverage on its expertise and
network within Asia's infrastructure industry to bring inorganic growth
opportunities to Tat Hong. In addition, its investment signals a vote of
confidence in Tat Hong's prospects, as AIF Capital seeks long term
investments (7 years on average) in companies that are poised to benefit
from Asia's growth.

Earnings to rebound in 3Q10. Tat Hong has weathered several challenging
quarters as equipment sales plunged along with the global economic crisis,
leading us to project earnings contraction for FY10. On a positive note,
management believes that the worst is over. 3Q10 earnings are expected
to rebound as banks loosen their credit lines and customers regain
confidence. Tat Hong has been steadily increasing its focus on rental
income, which now accounts for 68.5% of gross profit, in order to stabilise
its earnings stream. This strategy will ensure the group's profitability through
ups and downs of economic cycles, and will capitalise on customers'
growing preference for equipment rental rather than outright capital
investments.

Value emerging. Upgrade to BUY. Tat Hong's shares have fallen by
20% over the last two months and we see value emerging at current levels.
Valuations are undemanding at 10.3x FY10F PER and 1.2x FY10F NTA,
coupled with a relatively decent 3.9% dividend yield. On top of that, recent
purchases by directors signal confidence in the company's prospects. We
upgrade Tat Hong to BUY and raise our fair value estimate to S$1.15 (from
S$1.13) as we rollover our valuations to a blended FY10/11F NTA (previously
FY10F) but on the same 1.3x peg. With slower earnings momentum, we
continue to favour NTA valuations to better capture Tat Hong's value. Our
earnings projections have been lowered slightly to reflect more conservative
revenue and margin assumptions. (Lee Wen Ching)

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Alligator
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25-Sep-2009 13:51

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Just take from share investment book.

Tat Hong NAV 0.81, PE 8.1 ( when price around 1.13), yield 4.5% , EPS.137 (end 31 mar 09), EPS 1q10 .021

Tiong Woon, Nav0.514, PE 6.5 ( when price around 82cent), yield 0.5%, EPS 30 June 09 ending = 0.125

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candle
Member

25-Sep-2009 12:57

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yes

tat hong is larger crane co than tiong woon.

but is their EPS better than tiong woon.

can some one shed some light

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derekchong
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25-Sep-2009 12:51

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tat hong is the lau ta in this crane industry but px not moving.

look at tiong woon, cheong likes no tomorrow.

director and chairman of tat hong also cannot tahan

bought 50 lots each to support

actually what happen.???????

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nickyng
Supreme

25-Sep-2009 06:44

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talking up the counter huh? hee....anyway this burger will remain weak for time being....seems may hit 1.05 range again :P

musicwhiz5 ( Date: 25-Sep-2009 02:45) Posted:

Tan Chok Kian is the Chairman of Tat Hong, not just a Director. His buying at $1.08 demonstrates confidence in the Company.

In addition to this purchase, Leong Horn Kee also purchased shares the previous day, also at $1.08.

2Q FY 2010 results should be out by mid-Nov 2009. I do not expect a dividend.

derekchong ( Date: 24-Sep-2009 19:06) Posted:

another Director buy 50 lots at $1.08 today.( SGX posting)

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musicwhiz5
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25-Sep-2009 02:45

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derekchong ( Date: 24-Sep-2009 19:06) Posted:

another Director buy 50 lots at $1.08 today.( SGX posting)

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derekchong
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24-Sep-2009 19:06

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another Director buy 50 lots at $1.08 today.( SGX posting)

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yipyip
Master

24-Sep-2009 14:42

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>> ANNOUNCEMENT DETAILS

The details of the announcement start here ...

>> PART I

1. Date of notice to issuer * 22-09-2009

2. Name of Director * Leong Horn Kee

3.	Please tick one or more appropriate box(es): *
	Notice of a Director's (including a director who is a substantial shareholder) Interest and Change in Interest. [Please complete Part II and IV]

>> PART II

1. Date of change of Interest 22-09-2009

2. Name of Registered Holder Leong Horn Kee

3. Circumstance(s) giving rise to the interest or change in interest Open Market Purchase

# Please specify details

4. Information relating to shares held in the name of the Registered Holder

No. of Shares held before the change	550,000
As a percentage of issued share capital	0.109 %

No. of Shares which are subject of this notice	50,000
As a percentage of issued share capital	0.01 %

Amount of consideration (excluding brokerage and stamp duties) per share paid or received 1.08

No. of Shares held after the change	600,000
As a percentage of issued share capital	0.12 %

>> PART III

1. Date of change of [Select Option]

2. The change in the percentage level From % To %

3. Circumstance(s) giving rise to the interest or change in interest [Select Option]

# Please specify details

A statement of whether the change in the percentage level is the result of a transaction or a series of transactions:

>> PART IV

1.	Holdings of Director , including direct and deemed interest :

	Direct	Deemed
No. of shares held before the change	550,000	100,000
As a percentage of issued share capital	0.109 %	0.02 %
No. of shares held after the change	600,000	100,000
As a percentage of issued share capital	0.12 %	0.02 %

Footnotes

The above percentages were calculated based on 506,626,723 total issued shares inclusive of 1,961,000 treasury shares.

Attachments

Total size = 0
(2048K size limit recommended)

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nickyng
Supreme

22-Sep-2009 14:18

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wow! wat happ?!? no transaction since 10.58am ??? SUDDEN DEATH !?!?? :P

Time	Last	Vol	Buy/Sell
10:58:51	1.080	10	S
10:57:52	1.080	10	S
10:43:41	1.080	10	S
10:41:03	1.080	2	B
10:39:48	1.080	5	B
10:36:42	1.080	10	B
10:08:57	1.080	23	S
10:06:47	1.080	5	S
09:34:47	1.080	20	S
09:34:24	1.080	6	S

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derekchong
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22-Sep-2009 11:02

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look at his son Yongmao, worst, no trading for days.

all in the same crane business.

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nickyng
Supreme

22-Sep-2009 10:25

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Tat Hong no action today? look at it bro TiongWoon !! wow !! :D

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Snappers
Senior

18-Sep-2009 15:03

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Yells: "Buy when there is Fear, Sell when there is Greed"

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siao liao... it's juz like a candle slowly burning till all the wax flattened.. Smiley

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Snappers
Senior

18-Sep-2009 14:07

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Yells: "Buy when there is Fear, Sell when there is Greed"

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no eyes to see.. haiz...

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nickyng
Supreme

18-Sep-2009 12:25

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cant believe it !! 1 lot game is still playing now....WOW !! :P

Time	Last	Vol	Buy/Sell
12:24:37	1.070	1	B
12:24:27	1.070	1	B
12:24:02	1.070	1	B
12:23:38	1.070	1	B
12:23:26	1.070	1	B
12:23:02	1.070	1	B
12:22:50	1.070	1	B
12:22:26	1.070	1	B
12:22:03	1.070	1	B
12:21:50	1.070	1	B
12:21:27	1.070	1	B
12:21:14	1.070	1	B
12:20:51	1.070	1	B
12:20:26	1.070	1	B
12:20:15	1.070	1	B
12:19:50	1.070	1	B
12:19:27	1.070	1	B
12:19:15	1.070	1	B
12:18:51	1.070	1	B
12:18:26	1.070	1	B

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nickyng
Supreme

18-Sep-2009 10:42

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hmm..who is this joker playing 1 lot game since 10am har ? :P

Time	Last	Vol	Buy/Sell
10:39:02	1.070	1	B
10:38:51	1.070	1	B
10:38:27	1.070	1	B
10:38:03	1.070	1	B
10:37:38	1.070	1	B
10:37:15	1.070	1	B
10:37:02	1.070	1	B
10:36:39	1.070	1	B
10:36:14	1.070	1	B
10:35:51	1.070	1	B
10:35:26	1.070	1	B
10:35:14	1.070	1	B
10:34:51	1.070	1	B
10:34:27	1.070	1	B
10:34:03	1.070	1	B
10:33:51	1.070	1	B
10:33:26	1.070	1	B
10:33:03	1.070	1	B
10:32:39	1.070	1	B
10:32:15	1.070	1	B

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DnApeh
Master

13-Sep-2009 10:45

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Bands are tightening. Make or break time very soon. Come on, guys, place your bets!!!! Mai thu liao!!

i think when IR open, i will go look for a job there. LOL!

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star-trader
Senior

13-Sep-2009 10:00

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DnApeh has a point on the short-term trading strategies...

rgds,

star-trader

Alligator ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 12:47) Posted:

Haha, thanks for your rules of 5, very easy to remember..

DnApeh ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 12:13) Posted:

if you are short term gambler like me, remember the rule of 5s.

105 cut loss.

115 immediate resistance.

125 real resistance, if this one clear, then 155. If 125 doesn't clear, also better to clear.

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jeremyow
Senior

12-Sep-2009 01:06

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Yells: "Passionate business investor"

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This is not a speculative stock in focus right now. There is no interest from speculators yet. This stock is for long term investment. Switch to more speculative stocks if one needs to see more exciting price action.........

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