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Prepare for risk of double-dip recession
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iPunter
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14-Sep-2009 06:20
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That's what it's so important to worship the spiritual beings, who have our interests at heart.... |
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
14-Sep-2009 05:05
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Sheng Siong is a good example...the boss started out in 1985...before coming to this stage today...time and effort...lots of hard work
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cheongwee
Elite |
14-Sep-2009 02:35
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we are really, nothing...look at those billionaire...how grand!!!... look at Peter Lim, 10m become 1.5b!!!..the god of the makrt must have like him very much... look at Sheng Siong,,,how he did it???.. we shd not be dissipitated, count our blessings... all are vanity, chasing after the wind...if i dont dies come Jan...i will still have to...yrs later..no escape.. the lease is getting shorter..as we grow older... |
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cheongwee
Elite |
14-Sep-2009 02:08
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no wonder it have been said that 90% of them, lose money, it is a sad true here, i still hear alot of time ppl saying..i am holding on to penny bought sometimes ago,,,shd i sell, or hold??? it sadden me ppl just buy, not knowing when to fold or sell...and before they know, they got suck .. there are alot of ppl saying this...rule 1, rule2, rule 3...so on and so on...but when come to execute, they are lost....talk is easy, but make sure you really carry it out, never wrong. never, never , never, ever , ever buy penny and mid cap...next leg down...buy blues..unless in a rally.like this... now , your penny is still some 50% over down, right?..sorry nobody can help you...unless on Mar 19 when i call buy, and you really did buy,,u would have have $$$...not only cover your losses, but make handsome profit..i know...becos i lose $$$ in 2007..due to greed, cos bought alot..(even thought that was the profit previously make)..i have recover losess with handsome profit... never mind, i just hope you dont , buy more than you can afford to lose...if you do so properly henceforth, you will make it back...just be patient... dont be afraid to lose opportunity, there are always opportunity to make $$$...in the mrket. now this market, BB is looking at all small boys like us, and small boy is looking at BB to take the lead.. what happen is that both thk the same and walk out, then markt will drop ... thus , you find sometimes counter is active for awhile then die out within the day...this is the reason...it is also telling us markt is extremely tired...and time is abt up... but again the LEI( leading economic indicater) have been up for 4 straight month in a row show markt may still got leg to rally for 2 more quater till mid 2010, but that will not be without meaning correction which will be soon... of course , this will be the best scenario, better than big bad news.,right?..hope so.. |
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cheongwee
Elite |
14-Sep-2009 01:32
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kellychang...u really did check my previous post to convince that my call are all mostly quite accurate, right??..and u agree it is "chun"..thanks ,but i am not flatter, just so...becos i know wat i am doing... so now you are convince, but that is no luck, if you are right twice, you are lucky, but if you are right 70% of the time, you call that luck.??well it u want to , up to u..... but since ppl like to call it luck or whatever, it is up to them....but i still dont agree on 50/50 chance, it is like gambling...i am not against the use of whatever method, or argue to win for that sake... in the end, it is winning trade that count, and using something that give 50/50, will never achieve what i have achieve so far,,,you can check my post for your reference.again....i am not showing off...but why throw your chance to the wind.. i am going for operation, if my doctor tell me ...cheongwee,,it is 50/50....i say leave me lone...at least i still can live awhile, better than operate on 50/50..dont you agree?? FREE THINGS IS ALWAYS GOOD, BUT GOOD THINGS IS NEVER ALWAYS FREE!!! i will continue on the next post.... |
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kellychang
Master |
14-Sep-2009 00:19
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well...i think i am quite free and went to search what mdm cheong wee last time posts... well...i think...she v zhun in predicting the things... well....believe or not..is up to u... maybe she just very good luck in this...hahah... |
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baseerahmed
Master |
13-Sep-2009 23:47
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Mdm cheongwee, reading through ur posts u mentioned : " leading economic data are more accurate to tell the state ofthe economy... you just listen and watch out for leading indicater that tell the economy " ... which are the indicators u focus on ...care to enlighten/elaborate us on those leading indicators that u focus on .....? thank you . |
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baseerahmed
Master |
13-Sep-2009 23:05
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We are likely to have a double-dip recession, and this is why. Your Uncle Sam has been having a hard time because he spends more than he makes. He engages in much unproductive behavior and wastes a lot of money on things that he doesn't really need. He is easily influenced by his irresponsible children, Nancy and Harry, whose mantra is: "Spend, Sam, spend." Sam is also sloppy with his finances. His record keeping is poor, and he is frequently ripped off by people who claim to be his friends. Recently, Sam experienced a big drop in his income, because his employer (the American taxpayer) had been taking financial hits. But Sam likes to live well, so he went to Mr. Goldman and Mr. Sachs' bank and borrowed some money. He also hit up some of his friends in China and Japan for additional loans. Sam had promised to cut back his excessive spending, but then he found he was so good at borrowing he decided not only not to cut back, but to spend more. Sam was living in a good way. He bought many new cars for his friends and a new health-insurance policy that promised to cover 100 percent of anything his friends might need forever, and Nancy and Harry told Sam he should make his employer pay for it. It was a great life. But then things began to turn a bit sour. Sam's employer said he would have to take another pay cut to pay for the health insurance and all of the new, legally required environmental equipment, which would wipe out most of the profit he had been making. Sam then did what he was good at -- he borrowed money. He found out that Mr. Goldman and Mr. Sachs' bank and his Chinese and Japanese friends would still lend him money. But since he had borrowed so much and was a credit risk, they said they were going to have to greatly increase his interest rates. Sam agreed to pay the higher interest in exchange for the additional loans, but then Sam found he did not have enough money for all of the spending he wanted and all the presents he had promised to give to others. So, as you would expect, Sam ran out of money even sooner this time. He had to run back to the bank and his friends, and borrow even more at ever increasing interest rates, until he found that he was just borrowing more money to pay the interest on all the money he had previously borrowed. Desperate, he went to see his friend Ben at the really big bank, and said: "What can I do?" Ben looked at Sam's income statements and balance sheet, and said: "You are in deep trouble, but this is what I will do for you. Because there is no way you can now earn enough to pay off all of these debts, I am going to give your employer 'new money' to pay you twice as much as you have been earning." Sam said: "Hey, that's great. But what's the catch?" Ben said: "The money will look the same, but it will only buy half as much as before. It will still be called a dollar so you can pay off your debts to your Chinese and Japanese friends, and to Mr. Goldman and Mr. Sachs' bank. They will all be hopping mad, of course, about getting dollars that can't buy much, but that's their problem." Sam said: "Wait a minute .... I will only be able to buy half the things I used to with these cheap dollars." Ben said: "That's right, Sam, it is called inflation, but it is better than debtors' prison or being knee-capped." It turns out Mr. Goldman and Mr. Sachs were not at all upset about Sam paying off the loans in "the new dollars" since they had long ago sold off Sam's loans to others who had heard Sam had always been good for the money in the past. Sam's employer is every American, and we have all been suckered by Nancy, Harry and their irresponsible colleagues. Tax revenues (Sam's income) have been falling at a record rate, and now only cover half of government spending. Spending is up more than 50 percent in one year. Consumer spending rose slightly last month, but incomes fell. As interest rates rise, as they must, and international commodity and other prices rise as the global economy recovers, real, after-tax, inflation and tax-adjusted disposable incomes will continue to fall. This means real consumption can rise temporarily but will likely fall again, giving the United States a double-dip recession. Richard W. Rahn is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and chairman of the Institute for Global Economic Growth. |
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baseerahmed
Master |
13-Sep-2009 22:54
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What Does Double Dip Recession Mean?
When gross domestic product (GDP) growth slides back to negative after a quarter or two of positive growth. A double-dip recession refers to a recession followed by a short-lived recovery, followed by another recession.
The causes for a double-dip recession vary but often include a slowdown in the demand for goods and services because of layoffs and spending cutbacks from the previous downturn. A double-dip (or even triple-dip) is a worst-case scenario. Fear that the economy will move back into a deeper and longer recession makes recovery even more difficult. |
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iPunter
Supreme |
13-Sep-2009 19:24
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Hahaha... both camps are like the Yin and the Yang... The bears are Yin, the bulls are Yang... They are not opposites, but complementary pairs... For without Bull, there cannot be Bear... And without bear, there cannot be Bull... They need each other... like light and darkness need each other... And winning and losing makes a life complete... hehehe... |
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richtan
Supreme |
13-Sep-2009 16:59
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HLJHLJ
Veteran |
13-Sep-2009 16:46
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Both of you all are good! Like kungfu from Emei and Shaolin. LOL.. Just impart more "kungfu" to newbies like us...so that we can be like GuoJin or Yangguo.
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richtan
Supreme |
12-Sep-2009 22:54
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Well, no point debating, u have your beliefs as well as TA practitioner have their beliefs, so it is best to live in harmony just as our PM said about religious harmony, so dun criticise n belittle others n debase others but glorify your own beliefs. If u dun believe in TA, jsut ignore n dun read but dun criticise it as there are others whom believe in TA will want to read. As Confucious said: "Dun do onto others wat u dun want others to do unto u"
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richtan
Supreme |
12-Sep-2009 22:49
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I m happy for u tat u amke money with your trading method, but plse dun belittle or debase others just to glorify your trading method, likewise a TA practitioner will argue tat their TA method is better, so to each his own. As our PM said, lets share a common space, practice tolerance n respect for each other's method just as in religion, mutual co-existence, we dun go around arguing with people of other faiths, tat "oh my religion is better than your religion, my GOD is more almighty than yours"
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richtan
Supreme |
12-Sep-2009 22:36
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Hi thomas, No I dun use any automated trading platform, as I believe nothing can beats the human judgement element no matter how much artificiai intelligence is built-in as chart analysis is a very complex thing with many possible scenarios n possibilities tat cannot all be covered by the automated program. I firmly believe there is no easy way out in trading, no short-cut to success in life.
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richtan
Supreme |
12-Sep-2009 21:53
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Making losses is part n parcel of a trader's lives, thus why I always abide by my 3 golden mantras: (1) Remember, "The trend is your friend, never, never go against the trend", we need to know the short-term, mid-term n long term trend n trade accordingly (2) "Plan your trade n trade your plan", which means we need to analyse the chart for buying opportunities (TA skills needed, though not infallible) n set out stop-loss point b4 enter a trade (3) "Cut losses short n let profit runs with trailing stops", we need to let profit runs as much as it can to cover all the losses made n yet make net gains. When we hit the cut-loss, never be emotional, be mechanical, immediately exit n never regret even if later it goes up bcos if dun cut, wat if it continues to go down, preserving ammunition to fight another day is the key. We can always re-enter if there is another buy sign candles, even if buying at a higher price.
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thomas_low
Veteran |
12-Sep-2009 21:41
Yells: "Gong Xi Money Made" |
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Hi Richie, do you use any automated programmable trading platform? I am looking for some recommendation of such products. Poems Pro Trader is not good enough, need something which I can set to track index and trend and recognise and place order automatically. | ||||
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richtan
Supreme |
12-Sep-2009 21:36
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If he lose big during 07 sell down, then, to me he is not a TA expert as he trades emotionally, not mechanically, without setting stops n abiding by it, remember my 3 golden mantras, it is always ingrained in me.
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richtan
Supreme |
12-Sep-2009 21:32
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Nah... nah... nah... I m not the real experts, I m just an average TA trader sharing my chart analysis in the hope tat some TA expert can exchange pointers n point out any blindspots tat I missed.
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richtan
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12-Sep-2009 21:27
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Tats why I have a 2 days rule to avoid so-called "head fakes", remember "one swallow does not make a summer", it must at the minimum, stay 2 days above the breakout or at worse test the breakout line as a support n the breakout must be support by increased vol n finally set a stop-loss point in case despite all these precautions, still kena palyed out as TA is not infallible as I always mentioned just as in live, nothing is infallible.
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