We are very bullish on Singapore’s forthcoming casino market and our estimates are well above consensus. However, we have erred on the side of caution for each individual assumption. Discussing our bottom-up estimates with investors, we have concluded that there exists significant further upside. As an example we have assumed an ebitda margin of 40% vs. management guidance of 50%. We have run a number of blue sky scenarios which implies the stock could be worth as much as S$3.
We currently forecast Singapore gaming revenues of US$3.2bn. This suggests that Macau will be four times the size. We believe this implies our estimates are conservative if we consider the large potential of the South East Asian including the local Singaporean market. If we assumed Macau to be 3x or 2x the size of Singapore, then our new price targets would be S$1.61 and S$2.45 respectively.
In our recent report titled Handful of aces, we provide a bottom-up framework for estimating the size of the market – looking at number of casino visitors and average spend by customer group including locals; foreign visitors, VIPs and Malaysian day-trippers. In each case, we have erred on the side of caution. Should we take slightly less conservative assumptions for a number of these parameters we end up with a range of new price targets from S$1.32 to S$1.80.
Should we boost our Ebitda margin assumptions to management guidance of 50% (from 40%) then our price target would be S$1.40. Market share of 50% vs. 46% would boost our price target to S$1.20.
Should we add up a number of our more aggressive revenues assumptions and apply higher margins, we arrive at a price target of $2.37. We have assumed 12x ebitda. Applying 15x to existing estimates results in a price target of S$2.37. Then applying this multiple to our sum of our bottom-up blue sky assumptions we arrive at a target S$3.
Latest Forum Topics /
Genting Sing
Last:0.765
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GenSp starts to move up again
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ljkeong
Senior |
11-Sep-2009 00:22
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The good timing to enter is after XR. Maybe will drop below $1.00. |
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teeth53
Supreme |
10-Sep-2009 20:55
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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Today is almost every contra players day is a big winner, tomorro (Friday) Genting SP maybe trading within range bound (no gaping up or down), bearing unforseen. it's seen a little difficult to go beyond $1.170ct cos it was top for profit taking (just my tot) Last Updated 6 minutes ago. (money.cnn.com)
7:20am: Investors await trade and employment data, consider Obama's health care speech. More
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risktaker
Supreme |
10-Sep-2009 20:41
Yells: "Sometimes you think you know, but in fact you dont" |
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hehe seems people still dont understand what the hell is going on with Genting. Today TX has proven so much about its intention and its future price direction. Try to think like the 1%. Dude |
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teeth53
Supreme |
10-Sep-2009 20:37
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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Scare, scare lehh it was gap down for a start, lucky lehh finally it end well. Contra player most happy one.
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teeth53
Supreme |
10-Sep-2009 20:34
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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Worry me is those who have to payup, per average deal is close to S$40,000, $40,000 is not a small sum to retail players, very speculative in nature, tomorro is Friday, some do not like to take position, those bot beyond their mean. all they can do is hope, pray price don't fall further...Happy liao (T+3 to T+5 for some). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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DnApeh
Master |
10-Sep-2009 20:31
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Gap on 2 Sep & 3Sep is still intact. note that today is white candle, high volumes. Definitely good for intraday gambling. Why need to go casino leh? |
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dealer0168
Elite |
10-Sep-2009 20:22
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Still can see strong buying power. Let continue monitoring. Cheers.
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teeth53
Supreme |
10-Sep-2009 20:18
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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It closed well at $1.14 cents However take care...Ya More then 3x more then 1st run up (Oceanus), it volume hit a spectacular of 395,813,000 shares. It mean there is speculative element in buying/selling and on contra basic, it performance is within expectation of it average strike price after a bad start, However most players is willing to buy within $1.110 to $1.13, for risk investing purposes even if it fall, fall further then it pick up time (pay n wait) cos for simply reason awaiting for next rumour to arrive and sell again. Those who bot at $1.14cent above and especially after $1.15cents is far fewer in numbers as it risk is higher when oneself have to payup after T+3, maybe up to T+5 to payup and those bot at prices of $1.170 cent, (all bot up) there will 582 deal done, on average is slightly more then 33,000 share per deal indicating the price is been chase up while it shown those profiting can tell some what that it is hard to cross beyond their price (On live trading screen with numbers and fact at their finger tip).
traded summary: Happy Trading and have a nice day.
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erictkw
Veteran |
10-Sep-2009 17:58
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AmFraser Report - 10 Sep 09 GENTING SINGAPORE Investment Highlights l Maintain BUY with higher DCF-based fair value of S$1.28/share versus S$0.90/share previously. Our DCF valuation for Genting Singapore plc (GenS) has been raised to account for higher revenue coming from an increase in visitor arrivals at Resorts World at Sentosa (RWS). l We have also revised GenS’s FY11F earnings projection upwards by 33% for this reason. Our FY09F-FY10F earning forecast for GenS remains unchanged. Due to our higher fair value for GenS, our RNAV-based fair value for Genting Bhd has been raised from RM7.46/share to RM8.95/ share. l Previously, we had assumed that visitor arrivals would only expand 5% to 11.4 million in FY11F and 4% to 11.9 million in FY12F driven by traffic to RWS’ non-casino attractions. We had assumed that the number of casino patrons would remain constant throughout the 10 years from FY10F. l We are, now, assuming that the number of visitors would expand 18% to 12.9 million in FY11F and 15% to 14.8 million in FY12F. We are keeping our assumption of 10.9 million visitor arrivals for FY10F versus management’s guidance of 12-13 million. l GenS yesterday proposed a 1-for-5 rights issue at S$0.80/share. This is at a 33% discount to GenS’s closing price of S$1.19/share. Total proceeds from the rights issue would amount to S$1.63bil. The theoretical ex-rights price is estimated at S$1.13/share and GenS is expected to trade exrights on Friday, 18 September. l About 60% of the rights proceeds would be used to fund investments/acquisitions while the balance 40% would be used for working capital (including repayment of bank borrowings). l Interest income from the rights issue of an estimated S$41mil could turn GenS into a profitable position in FY10F based on our estimated net loss of S$10mil for the group. l However, looking ahead to FY11F, then GenS’s fully diluted EPS would shrink 7% to 3.14 cents Singapore due to the increase in number of shares from its rights issue. l Genting Bhd would have to fork out about RM2bil or S$839mil to subscribe for its portion of GenS’s rights issue. We estimate Genting Bhd’s FY10F net profit to decline by 7% if the group were to borrow fully to finance its subscription of the rights issue. RAISING FY11F EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND FAIR VALUE TO S$1.28/SHARE We are raising our FY11F net earnings estimates for Genting Singapore plc (GenS) from S$231mil to S$345mil. The upward revision in our earnings forecast takes into account higher number of visitors at Resorts World at Sentosa (RWS). Our FY09F-FY10F earnings projections for GenS remains unchanged. We are still forecasting a net loss of S$10mil for FY10F. Following this, we have increased our FY11F earnings forecast for Genting Bhd by 16% while our RNAV-based fair value for the group has been raised to RM8.95/share from RM7.46/share. GenS accounts for 58% of Genting Bhd’s RNAV while Genting Malaysia accounts for 30%. We estimate that for an every 5 cent Singapore increase in GenS’s fair value, Genting Bhd’s fair value would increase by 21 sen or 2%. Proposes 1-for-5 rights issue GenS yesterday proposed a 1-for-5 rights issue at an issue price of S$0.80/rights share. Total proceeds from the rights issue would amount to S$1.63bil. Issue price of the rights shares of S$0.80 is at a 33% discount to GenS’s closing share price of S$1.19. We estimate the theoretical ex-price at S$1.13/share based on GenS’s share price of S$1.19. GenS said that 60% of the net proceeds would be used to fund future acquisitions/investments while the balance 40% would be used for working capital including repayment of bank borrowings. Interest income from rights proceeds may help offset GenS’s FY10F losses Based on an interest rate of 3%, we estimate GenS’s aftertax interest income from the rights proceeds at S$41mil. This could turn our FY10F net loss estimate of S$10mil for GenS into a profit of S$30mil. However, looking ahead to FY11F, the rights issue would dilute GenS’s fully diluted EPS by 7% to 3.14 cents Singapore. The proposed rights issue would increase GenS’s basic share base by 21% to 11.7 billion. GenS’s shares will trade ex-rights on Friday, 18 September while the book closure date has been tentatively fixed on Wednesday, 23 September. Genting Bhd to borrow to subscribe for rights issue? Based on its equity interest of 54% in GenS, Genting Bhd is entitled to subscribe to 1.0 billion rights shares. Subscribing to GenS’s rights issue would cost Genting Bhd about RM2bil or S$839mil. Genting Bhd’s company level net cash stood at RM310mil as at end-FY08. We believe that Genting Bhd would either have to borrow or rely on an increase in dividends from Genting Malaysia Bhd and/or Genting Plantations Bhd. As at end-June 2009, Genting Malaysia’s cash reserves stood at RM5.1bil. If Genting Bhd were to borrow fully to subscribe to GenS’s rights issue, then the increase in interest expense would reduce Genting Bhd’s FY10F net profit by 7% to RM1.2bil. FY11F earnings assumptions revised upwards We have raised RWS’s visitors assumption for FY11F from 11.4 million to 12.9 million due to an increase in casino players. Our visitor arrivals for FY10F remain unchanged at 10.9 million compared to management’s guidance of 12-13 million. We had previously assumed that the number of casino patrons would remain constant throughout the ten years from FY10F to FY20F. We are now assuming that the number of casino patrons would rise 33% YoY to 3.9 million in FY11F and 25% to 4.8 million in FY12F. In total, we have forecast the number of visitors at RWS (including theme park, etc) as expanding 18% to 12.9 million in FY11F and 15% to 14.8 million in FY12F. From FY14F onwards, total number of visitors at RWS is projected to rise 3% annually. Previously, our earnings estimates imputed a conservative 5% increase in visitor arrivals for FY11F and 4% rise in FY12F. We have kept RWS’s gross profit assumptions of 20% for FY10F, 22% for FY11F and 24% for FY12F. On a group basis (including operations in Britain), EBITDA margin for GenS is forecast at 14% for FY10F and 16% for FY11F. Due to the above revisions, GenS’s FY11F net profit forecast has been revised from S$231mil to S$345mil (excluding effects from rights issue). We are keeping our FY10F net loss estimate of S$10mil. DCF-based fair value increased to S$1.28/share Due to the upward revision in our earnings estimates, GenS’s DCF valuation has increased to S$14.9bil. Based on a discount rate of 10% and enlarged share base from the rights issue, GenS’s new fair value would be S$1.28/share. GenS’s share price to continue rising ahead of the opening of RWS We believe that GenS will continue to rise ahead of the opening of RWS. Although there has been reports that RWS would have a soft opening in December 2009, the official opening date is still 1QFY10. The exact opening date will only be revealed in 4QFY09. However, there is a possibility that RWS will open earlierthan-expected if trial runs were smooth and successful. A recent precedent would be Star Cruises. The group’s share price rose 100% three months before its casino in Philippines opened on 28 August 2009. After the casino opened, Star Cruises’ share price inched up an additional 2% to a high of US$0.295/share before softening currently. Year-to-date, Star Cruises’s share price has more than doubled to US$0.285/share from US$0.085/share. Based on Star Cruises’ share price performance, we believe that GenS’s share price would continue to rise prior to the opening of RWS. This is in spite of the 156% climb in the group’s share price year-to-date. Delays in opening of Marina Bay Sands (MBS)? It was reported that the opening of MBS would be delayed from 4QFY09 to 1QFY10. This raises the possibility that RWS would open earlier than MBS. The advantage in opening early is that RWS would be able to reap immediate cashflows from its casino. Other than this, the plus point is that RWS would be able to lock-in Singaporeans - who want year-long entry into the casino. Annual levy for Singaporeans to enter casinos is S$2,000/each. However, even if opening dates of the two integrated resort cum casinos (IRs) were to be close to each other, we reckon that both IRs would still benefit as visitors would still patronise both casinos. MBS recently announced that it had secured commercial terms for close to 80% of its retail mall. The retail mall, Marina Bay Sands Shoppes will open with 50% of total retail space in its first phase - in early-2010. Tiffany & Co and FJ Benjamin have announced that they will have a presence at MBS’s new retail mall. |
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nickyng
Supreme |
10-Sep-2009 17:48
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DJ MARKET TALK: Genting May Need More Debt To Take Up Rights-MIBB 0838 GMT [Dow Jones] Maybank Investment says Genting (3182.KU) may need to take on new debt following 54%-owned unit Genting Singapore's (G13.SG) S$1.6 billion (MYR4 billion) cash call. House says parent will have to pay S$839.4 million (MYR2.1 billion) for its share in unit's rights issue. "As at December 31, Genting had only MYR310.3 million cash at the company level...therefore, we believe it will borrow, likely in SGD, to finance its subscription," says Maybank, adding that this could lift Genting's group net gearing to 56%. Also says an equity call unlikely, while upstreaming cash from 47%-owned Genting Malaysia (4715.KU) will result in too much cash leakage to minorities. House keeps earnings estimates unchanged pending financing details; keeps Sell call, MYR5.10 target. Stock last +1.3% at MYR6.96. (KPL) |
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teeth53
Supreme |
10-Sep-2009 17:43
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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To risk investor, speculator and die hard support.......oni word Cheongg Ahhhh. If not pay up Ahh
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teeth53
Supreme |
10-Sep-2009 17:40
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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So those bot at. For eg:
Imagine bot 5 lots for $1.19ct ($5,950), pay another $800, total is 6,750/6 lots (average is $1.125 ct). one have to pray hard px don't drop below $1.25 ct (lose money liao). Now people's bot at between average $1.10 to $1.17 cents today, so Gent SP average for today purchase is lower then before halted traded price. SI liao for those bot at higher price, die, die nad pray, pray tomorro Gent SP head NORTH, if not have to wait longer liao for price to move beyond $1.20 cent. |
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erictkw
Veteran |
10-Sep-2009 17:37
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Thursday, September 10, 2009 |
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teeth53
Supreme |
10-Sep-2009 17:34
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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So Gent SP start of buy /sell at $1.10, sort of a ref to it average strike price of $1.125ct B4 Ding Dong from $1.08ct to $1.17ct. Finally settled down at $1.14cents on very speculative spectacular buy /sell power. Good point noted is it float above average strike price, now it will depend on again, just like previous round, buying back on weak sentiment news and sell on good news, sell into strength (short term), Those who has bot recently has must be totally very happy to sell on such strength and those bot on higher price will have to wait for rumour to arrive, one well know to everyone is, such as Gent SP getting a license liao.
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danielyh
Member |
10-Sep-2009 17:31
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nickyng
Supreme |
10-Sep-2009 16:56
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haha....we shall see :)
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risktaker
Supreme |
10-Sep-2009 16:49
Yells: "Sometimes you think you know, but in fact you dont" |
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TP: $1.6 - $2.0 You sold too early la :( |
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Hulumas
Supreme |
10-Sep-2009 16:48
Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!" |
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Next price movement will be slowly yet surely to <Sgd. 0.80 Ha. ha.. ha...
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jonathant
Member |
10-Sep-2009 16:46
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Genting has so many die hard supporters, at the expense of other counters, even Bursa's... yday announcement was carefully chosen on an auspicious date 090909. what's next? |
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nickyng
Supreme |
10-Sep-2009 16:44
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DJ MARKET TALK:"Undue Investor Optimism" On Genting Singapore -GS 0727 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Goldman Sachs tips Genting Singapore's (G13.SG) rights issue as preemptive move to strengthen balance sheet, with planned 40% rights proceeds, or about S$650 million, deployment to be "very useful" to help bridge funding gap for integrated resort. Notes company secured only S$6 billion funding vs project cost of S$6.59 billion. Adds, some EPS dilution likely, partly mitigated by comparable cost of equity vs debt. Estimates 2010 net debt to equity to be reduced from 144% to 83%, more comparable vs house's gaming coverage industry median 74% net gearing levels. But keeps stock at Sell, target S$0.65. "We think the market may be too optimistic on Singapore gaming demand and the competitive outlook;" notes shares up substantially, "much inflated by undue investor optimism;" expects rights issue to weigh on stock. Shares down 3.4% at S$1.15. (LES) |
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