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Market News that affect STI
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Blastoff
Elite |
29-Aug-2009 10:36
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Dow snaps winning streakIntel's improved sales forecast and Dell's profit surprise encourage tech investors, but stocks struggle one day after the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh 2009 highs.The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 36 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost 2 points or 0.2%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 1 point, or 0.1% and managed to squeak out a fresh 2009 high, closing at the highest point since Oct. 1. All three major indexes had gained in the morning, thanks to the tech boost, but lost steam as the session wore on. Trading volume was light on the second-to-last trading session of August. Stocks managed slim gains Thursday, with the Dow stretching its winning streak to eight straight sessions, its longest run since the period ended April 10, 2007. But the gains have been tepid this week on the back of a surprisingly strong summer advance. Between the March 9 lows and Friday's close, the S&P 500 gained 52%. Intel and Dell: Chipmaker Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) boosted its revenue forecast for the third quarter, thanks to stronger PC demand, saying it expects sales of $8.8 billion to $9.2 billion. Previously, it forecast sales of $8.1 billion to $8.9 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are currently forecasting sales of $8.55 billion. Although many companies reported better-than-expected earnings in the second quarter, revenue growth has been tepid with results mostly driven by cost-cutting. Intel, a Dow component, rallied 4%. PC maker Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) reported weaker sales and earnings late Thursday that beat expectations, sending shares 1.8% higher Friday. Economy: Personal income was essentially flat in July, the government reported, versus forecasts for a rise of 0.1%. Income declined 1.1% in June. But spending perked up, thanks to the government's Cash for Clunkers program. Personal spending rose 0.2% after falling 1.1% in June. The rise was in line with estimates. Consumer sentiment was revised up to 65.7 in August from an earlier reading of 63.2. Economists expected a reading of 64. In July, sentiment stood at 66. Company news: Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) has signed a multiyear deal with China Unicom to bring the iPhone to China, the world's largest cellphone market. The deal ends months of speculation as to which Chinese firm would enable Apple's expansion into the lucrative market. Shares were little changed. Oil: U.S. light crude oil for October delivery rose 25 cents to settle at $72.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. World markets: European markets ended higher, while Asian markets ended mixed. Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.43% from 3.44% late Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions. Treasury sold $109 billion in debt this week to moderate demand. Other markets: COMEX gold for December delivery rose $11.50 to settle at $958.80 an ounce. In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the Japanese yen. Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners narrowly beat losers on volume of 1.19 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers eight to five on volume of 2.38 billion shares. |
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iPunter
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28-Aug-2009 16:25
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The market appears to be feeling tired... Except for a couple of baobeis like Banjoo, genting and Seroja, the majority are showing fatigue... Some stocks have already formed double tops... Perhaps portending the V-recovery is not to be... |
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richtan
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28-Aug-2009 14:11
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Blastoff
Elite |
28-Aug-2009 13:54
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SINGAPORE shares were lower at midday on Friday with the benchmark Straits Times Index down 3.98 points, or 0.15 per cent, to 2,638.25. About 1.6 billion shares were traded until the break. Losers beat gainers 232 to 226. |
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aleoleo
Master |
28-Aug-2009 13:20
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STI seems to be strong and running flat all the time, no big drop ..... stupid china bear has come out hunting now ...... HSI suppose to raise up, but limited upside because of the stupid downside on china .... sigh .... wat to do ... pray hard loh |
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Blastoff
Elite |
28-Aug-2009 06:36
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Dow makes it 8: Best win streak since April '07Wall Street closes at fresh 2009 highs, with blue chip average managing longest winning streak in nearly 2-1/2 years.Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) reported weaker sales and earnings that beat expectations, in a profit report that was released minutes before the close of trading, ahead of schedule. Shares gained 6.5% in extended-hours trading. The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 37 points, or 0.4%. The blue-chip average ended higher for the eighth session in a row, marking its longest winning streak since the period ended April 10, 2007. The S&P 500 (SPX) index gained 3 points, or 0.3%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) edged up 3 points, or 0.2%. Stocks ended Wednesday's session with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq at their highest levels since last fall. But investors found few reasons to extend the push Thursday, despite better-than-expected readings on housing and jobless claims. Nonetheless, the early weakness disappeared as the session ran on. "There's a floor in this market and it's probably at least 5% below the recent highs," said Tyler Vernon, chief investment officer at Biltmore Capital. "There's still so much cash on the sidelines that when we see a selloff, there are retail investors and institutional investors ready to jump back in." Stocks have essentially risen for the last five months, with the S&P 500 ending Wednesday's session up 52% from the 12-year low it hit on March 9. But the pace of the run, coupled with light August trading volume, has left markets churning over the last two weeks. Better-than-expected economic news -- and a healthy infusion of monetary and fiscal stimulus -- drove the rally. But the latest batch of economic reports have had less of an impact on investor sentiment. Reports are due Friday on July personal income and spending from the Commerce Department and August consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. GDP: Gross Domestic Product, the broadest measure of the health of the economy, declined at a 1.0% annual pace in the second quarter, unchanged from the initial reading last month. Economists thought GDP would be revised to show it slowed at a 1.5% annualized pace, according to Briefing.com estimates. In the first quarter, GDP declined at a 6.4% annualized rate. Job market: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment last week dipped to 570,000 from a revised 580,000 the previous week. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought claims would fall to 565,000. Oil: The price of oil turned higher, erasing morning lows. Oil hit 10-month highs earlier in the week. U.S. light crude oil for October delivery rose $1.06 to settle at $72.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Dow components Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) both posted modest losses after sliding 2% through the early afternoon. Financials: On the upside, shares of AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) rallied 27% after the company's CEO told Reuters that he doesn't support a fire sale of the insurer's assets. New CEO Robert Benmosche said in a year, people will say the bailed-out insurer is performing well. The stock has jumped 274% in August alone. Other financials rallying included Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500), Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) -- all of which have also received government help. The four have been responsible for much of the trading volume over the last few sessions. Also in active trading, bond insurer AMBAC Financial (ABK) jumped 28%, while CIT Group (CIT, Fortune 500) gained 12%. Company news: Dow component Boeing (BA, Fortune 500) said it will have its long-in-the works 787 Dreamliner in the air by the end of the year and that it will make deliveries in the fourth quarter of 2010. The airplane manufacturer said it will take a non-cash charge of $2.5 billion, or $2.21 per share, in the third quarter. Shares rallied 8.7%. Toll Brothers (TOL) reported a quarterly loss of $2.93 per share, versus a loss of 18 cents a year ago. The luxury homebuilder was expected to report a loss of $1.79 per share, according to Briefing.com estimates. Toll Brothers also reported a drop in revenue that nonetheless managed to top estimates. Problem banks: The number of financial institutions on the government's watch list surpassed 400 in the second quarter, the highest level in 15 years, the government said Thursday. World markets: European markets tumbled in afternoon trading, while Asian markets mostly ended higher, with the Japanese Nikkei rising 1.4%. Bonds: Treasury prices slipped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.47% from 3.43% late Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions. Treasury sold $42 billion of 2-year notes Tuesday, $39 billion of five-year notes Wednesday. The sale of $28 billion of 7-year notes Thursday saw a weaker-than-expected demand, but it didn't seem to impact the bond market much. Other markets: COMEX gold for December delivery rose $6 to settle at $951.80 an ounce. In currency trading, the dollar rose versus the euro and fell versus the Japanese yen. Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners eight to seven on volume of 1.16 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers by a narrow margin on volume of 2.16 billion shares. First Published: August 27, 2009: 9:47 AM ET |
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Blastoff
Elite |
27-Aug-2009 07:14
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Stocks eke out new highsThe Dow just manages to stretch its win streak to 7 sessions in a choppy day. New home sales rise more than expected.The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 4 points or less than 0.1%, still managing to close at its highest point since Nov. 4. The S&P 500 (SPX) index ended just above unchanged, squeaking out its highest close since Oct. 6. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) also ended just above unchanged, ending at its highest point since Oct. 1. The Dow has now gained for seven consecutive sessions, topping off a strong summer rally. After such a run, stocks were vulnerable to some choppiness Wednesday, despite the encouraging reading on new home sales. "This was a very positive report for the housing market," said Jane Caron, chief economic strategist at Dwight Asset Management. "It confirms that housing has turned the corner." She said that a bottoming in housing is one of the reasons she is expecting solid third-quarter GDP growth. Growth will also be driven by inventory rebuilding across many sectors, she said, and a rebound in auto production in the aftermath of the government's Cash for Clunkers stimulus program. Stocks have been more or less on the rise since bottoming in March. After hitting a more than 12-year low on March 9, the S&P 500 has risen 52%. The only notable pullback was a 7% slide in the run up to the start of the second-quarter earnings period. Thursday preview: A revised reading on GDP in the last quarter is due before the start of trading. The weekly jobless claims report is also on tap. Second-quarter gross domestic product growth (GDP) is expected to have contracted at a 1.5% annualized rate, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. That would be steeper than the initially reported 1% rate, but not as sharp as the 6.4% decline reported in the first quarter. The Commerce Department released the GDP report. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment is expected to have risen to 580,000 from 576,000 in the previous week. The Labor Department releases the jobs report. Toll Brothers (TOL) reports quarterly results in the morning. The luxury homebuilder is expected to have lost $1.79 per share after losing 18 cents one year earlier. After the close, tech bellwether Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) reports results. Dell is expected to have earned 23 cents per share versus 31 cents a year ago, according to Thomson Reuters estimates. Housing: July new home sales rose to a 433,000 unit annualized rate from a revised 395,000 unit rate in June. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com forecast sales at a 390,000 unit annual rate. On Tuesday, an S&P/CaseShiller report showed that home prices rose 2.9% in the second quarter versus the first, the first quarterly rise in three years. Also on Tuesday, reports showed consumer confidence and housing are starting to recover -- and President Obama nominated Ben Bernanke for a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Durable goods orders: Orders for goods meant to last three years or longer rose more than expected in July. According to a Commerce Department report released Wednesday morning, durables rose 4.9% after falling a revised 1.3% in June. Economists thought orders would rise 3.2%. Oil prices: Light crude oil prices for October delivery fell 62 cents to settle at $71.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices fell after a government report showed crude supplies rose less than expected last week, while gas and distillates - used in heating oil - rose more than expected. On the move: Vonage Holdings (VG) jumped 36% in unusually active New York Stock Exchange trade, building on its recent gain. The provider of VoIP - Internet based calling - has seen its stock bounce over 300% in the last week on speculation that the company can stay afloat, despite weaker revenue and subscriber growth. Human Genome (HGSI) also moved on unusually high volume on speculation that the company could be bought out by GlaxoSmithKline, its partner on several drugs, according to published reports. Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers topped winners by a narrow margin on volume of 1.05 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners seven to six on volume of 2.08 billion shares. World markets: European markets tumbled in afternoon trading, while Asian markets mostly ended higher, with the Japanese Nikkei rising 1.4%. Bonds: Treasury prices were little changed, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note ending at 3.43%. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions. Treasury sold $42 billion of 2-year notes Tuesday and is planning to sell $39 billion of five-year notes Wednesday and $28 billion of 7-year notes Thursday. Other markets: COMEX gold for December delivery fell 20 cents to settle at $945.80 an ounce. In currency trading, the dollar rose versus the euro and fell versus the Japanese yen. |
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richtan
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26-Aug-2009 22:29
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U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase 4.9% on Aircraft (Update2) By Courtney Schlisserman Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for U.S. goods meant to last several years jumped in July by the most in two years, stoked by a surge in demand for aircraft and communications equipment. Bookings for durable goods climbed 4.9 percent, exceeding forecasts and the most since July 2007, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Excluding transportation gear, orders increased 0.8 percent, a third consecutive gain. The administration’s $3 billion “cash-for-clunkers” plan has revived sales, indicating manufacturers such as General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. may soon be flooded with orders to restock depleted inventories. That may also give related industries a jolt, leading to a factory rebound that will help the economy emerge from the worst recession since the 1930s. “We have modest growth in demand in an environment of depleted inventories, and that will coax new output,” said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York, who had forecast orders would rise 4.4 percent. Improving conditions for manufacturers “will hopefully generate smaller declines in jobs in this sector.” Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were down 0.1 percent to 1,024.80 at 9:02 a.m. in New York. Economists forecast durable goods orders would increase 3 percent after a previously reported 2.2 percent decline for June, according to the median of 72 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from gains of 0.7 percent to 8 percent. Aircraft, Automobiles Outside of transportation, bookings were expected to increase 0.9 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey. Demand for aircraft, which is often volatile, surged 107 percent in July after falling 30 percent the prior month. Automobile orders increased 0.9 percent after a 0.2 percent decrease in June. Factories at General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC resumed production after exiting bankruptcy proceedings. Also, plants boosted output to meet demand from the government’s cash-for-clunkers trade-in program, which ended Aug. 24. The clunkers program offered auto buyers discounts of as much as $4,500 to trade in older cars and trucks for new, more fuel-efficient vehicles. J.D. Power & Associates forecast new- vehicle retail sales will probably top 1 million this month for the first time in the past year and GM last week said it called back 1,350 union workers as it boosts second-half production, partly in response to demand from the government’s program. Short-Lived Gains Some economists warn the gains in production from the auto program may be short-lived. “We borrowed heavily from future activity,” said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York. “I think you need to see numbers for September and October before you can draw any conclusions about its success.” Orders excluding defense equipment increased 4.3 percent. Bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, fell 0.3 percent after a revised 3.6 percent gain the prior month that was a percentage point larger than previously estimated. Shipments of these items, a measure used in calculating gross domestic product, climbed 0.5 percent, a second consecutive gain. Demand for communications gear jumped 9.4 percent, the biggest increase since the recession began in December 2007. Inventory Cutbacks Cutbacks in inventories in the first half of the year helped set the stage for growth. Stockpiles dropped at a record $141.1 billion annual pace in the second quarter after a $113.9 billion decline the first three months of the year. Companies reduced inventories of durable goods by 0.8 percent after dropping 1.5 percent in June, according to today’s report. Recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s probably has begun, according to a survey of economists taken by Bloomberg News earlier this month. The economy will expand 2 percent or more in four straight quarters through June, the first such streak in more than four years, according to the poll. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, nominated yesterday for a second term, pledged to work toward restoring stability to financial markets and the economy. He said Aug. 21 that the world economy is beginning to emerge from the recession after “aggressive” action by central banks and government. ‘Leveling Out’ “Economic activity appears to be leveling out, both in the United States and abroad, and the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good,” Bernanke said in a speech at the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. At the same time, he said, “critical” challenges remain including possible further losses for financial firms. Today’s report compares with regional measures showing manufacturing improved this month. The Fed Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index expanded in August for the first time in almost a year. The New York Fed measure showed growth for the first time since April 2008 and was the highest since November 2007. EnerSys, a Reading, Pennsylvania-based maker of industrial batteries, this month reported earnings that exceeded analyst estimates, and gave profit projections for the current quarter that also are above the average estimate of analysts. ‘Stable’ Orders “Recently, we have experienced stable incoming order rates, which lead us to believe that we may have reached the bottom of the declining order patterns we had been experiencing,” John Craig, chief executive officer, said in a statement on Aug. 5. Manufacturing nationwide accounts for about 12 percent of the $14.1 trillion U.S. economy, the world’s largest. Some companies continue to suffer. Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest maker of construction equipment, said Aug. 20 that declines in sales of machinery to its retailers accelerated in July. Deere & Co., the world’s largest maker of farm equipment, lowered its sales forecast for 2009 amid declining demand for lawn and construction machinery. To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington cschlisserma@bloomberg.net Last Updated: August 26, 2009 09:15 EDT |
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erictkw
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26-Aug-2009 14:59
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DJ MARKET TALK: Singapore 09 GDP May Beat Govt Forecast-Economist 0537 GMT [Dow Jones] Stronger-than-expected Singapore July manufacturing output may mean its 2009 GDP result may beat government's forecast for 2009 GDP to contract 4%-6%, Action Economics' economist David Cohen says. "Just to get the government's GDP range, you'd have to have pretty soft figures in the second half. It looks like we might do a little better than that, maybe we'll even hear from the officials recentering their range a little bit." Singapore July output +12.4% on-year vs 9.0% decline in June, 1.0% fall tipped by Dow Jones poll of economists; figure strongest since +17.8% recorded in March 2008. (VIN) |
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Blastoff
Elite |
26-Aug-2009 11:42
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STI seems to be very slowly today... hope it picks up soon. | |||||||||||||
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Blastoff
Elite |
26-Aug-2009 08:15
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Stocks touch new '09 highsWall Street advances on Bernanke appointment, signs of stability in the housing market and a rise in the consumer confidence index.News that President Obama is nominating Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke for a second term in office added to the positive sentiment. The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 30 points, or 0.3% and closed at its highest point since Nov. 4. The S&P 500 (SPX) index gained 2 points, or 0.2% and closed at its highest point since Nov. 6. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 6 points, or 0.3% and the highest close since Oct. 1. Stocks slipped Monday as investors took a step back after pushing the major gauges to new 2009 highs Friday. But after Monday's brief hiccup, stocks resumed their advance Tuesday. Stock gains were pretty broad based, with 21 of 30 Dow stocks rising, led by Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500) and Travelers Companies (TRV, Fortune 500). But falling oil prices cut into any stock gains, dragging down the influential energy sector. Dow components Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) and Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) declined and the Amex Oil (XOI) index was off 1%. Since bottoming at a 12 1/2 year low on March 9, the S&P 500 is up 52% as of Tuesday's close. The pace and breadth of the run up has left many Wall Streeters calling for a big selloff in September and October. But so far, there has been no indication of that. "Generally, the market keeps moving higher even though so-called experts are saying it's overbought," said Terry Morris, senior equity manager, National Penn Investors Trust. "It's surprisingly strong. Maybe we have turned a corner." Wednesday preview: Wednesday brings reports on new home sales and durable goods orders, both from the Commerce Department. New home sales are expected to have risen to a 390,000 unit annualized rate in July from a 384,000 unit annualized rate in June, according to Briefing.com forecasts. July durable goods orders are expected to have risen 3.2% after falling 2.5% in June. Orders excluding transportation are expected to have risen 1% after rising 1.1% in June. The weekly crude oil inventories report from the Energy Information Administration is also due in mid morning. Consumer confidence: Stocks hit the highs of the day just after the 10 a.m. ET release of the August Consumer Confidence index. The index rose to 54.1, surprising economists who thought it would rise to 47.9. The index stood at a revised 47.4 in July. While the report was significant, it doesn't often correlate to what the consumer ends up doing, said Kim Caughey, senior equity analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group. "Unemployment is continuing to rise, and that's going to keep the consumer out for the time being," Caughey said. She said inventory rebuilding on the part of corporations will help support the economy in the short term, rather than a rise in consumer spending. She said the Bernanke announcement was more notable. Fed: President Obama nominated Ben Bernanke to chair the Federal Reserve for a second term, announcing the reappointment months ahead of the expiration of Bernanke's current term. The reappointment is expected to receive the approval of the Senate. "There was a bit of uncertainty around Bernanke's reappointment and the fact that the announcement was made today is driving the gains," Caughey said. Housing: Home prices rose 2.9% in the second-quarter versus the first quarter, according to an S&P/Case-Shiller report. That's the first quarterly rise in prices in three years and could signal that the housing market has bottomed. The 20-city index declined 15.4% in June versus a year ago, but that was shy of forecasts for a drop of 16.4% versus a year ago. Budget: The White House released its deficit and economic forecast. It predicts a federal budget deficit of $9 trillion over the next decade and a deficit of $1.58 trillion in 2009. The $9 trillion is $2 trillion more than what the administration had forecast previously. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its own forecast shortly after the Obama administration. The CBO said the 2009 deficit will total $1.6 trillion. World markets: European markets rallied, while Asian markets slid, with the Japanese Nikkei losing 0.7%. Oil: U.S. light crude oil for October delivery fell $2.32 to settle at $72.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after touching a new 10-month high in the morning. Bonds: Treasury prices inched higher, lowering the corresponding yields, following a positive response to the first of three government debt auctions this week. The rise in prices lowered the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.44% from 3.47% Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions. Treasury sold $42 billion of 2-year notes Tuesday and is planning to sell $39 billion of five-year notes Wednesday and $28 billion of 7-year notes Thursday. Other markets: COMEX gold for December delivery rose $2.30 to settle at $946 an ounce. In currency trading, the dollar rose versus the euro and gained versus the Japanese yen. Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers three to two on volume of 1.14 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners seven to six on volume of 1.95 billion shares. |
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el7888
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26-Aug-2009 07:51
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GENEVA - CHINA'S goods exports edged ahead those of the world's largest exporter, Germany, for the first time ever during the first half of 2009, according to World Trade Organisation data given on Tuesday. Chinese goods exports reached US$521.7 billion (S$752 billion) over the first six months of the year, while Germany's reached US$521.6 billion. 'It is an indication that the two countries are very very close,' a WTO economist told AFP, confirming a report in the Financial Times. But he said it was too soon to judge if by the end of the year China will have overtaken Germany as the world's largest exporter of goods over the whole of 2009, and declined to make a prediction. 'It will depend on a number of parameters such as the exchange rate as well as a recovery in certain regions,' he added. Exports from both countries faltered for several months but have shown hints of a recovery recently. Germany is the biggest exporter of goods and services but has been closely tailed in recent years by China, which has been gaining ground with the explosive growth of the Chinese economy. In 2007, Germany exported US$1.32 trillion of goods over the full year while China's exports reached US$1.22 billion, according to WTO data. Chinese exports grew by an average of 25 per cent a year between 2000 and 2007 while German exports grew at a slower pace, 13 per cent per annum. However, Germany's US$210.8 billion in services exports in 2007 clearly distanced the US$121.6 billion recorded by China. -- AFP |
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chewwl88
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26-Aug-2009 06:35
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Singapore consumers growing more confident of economic
recovery
SINGAPORE: Singapore consumers are growing more
confident of an economic recovery. |
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chewwl88
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26-Aug-2009 06:31
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Singapore exports rebounded in April
SINGAPORE - Singapore's key exports grew 5.4 percent in April from the previous year, rebounding from a decline in March, driven by strong demand from the European Union, China and Indonesia, government data showed Friday. Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose to 14.02 billion Singapore dollars (10.17 billion US), reversing a 5.9 percent annual contraction in March, the trade promotion body International Enterprise (IE) Singapore said. While NODX to the United States fell 17 percent, exports to the EU rose 17 percent turning around a 24-percent drop in March, IE Singapore said. Shipments to China and Indonesia expanded 19 percent and 20 percent, respectively, also swinging back from declines. "The top contributors to the NODX rise were the EU, China and Indonesia," IE Singapore said in a statement. Non-electronics exports such as petrochemicals, pumps, metal manufactures and parts for tractors and motor vehicles grew 9.8 percent. Shipment of electronic products dipped 0.4 percent on weaker global demand, but the rate of decline was much slower than the 8.5 percent shrinkage in March. On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis, NODX gained 1.6 percent, compared with the previous month's 2.6 percent decline. Total trade climbed 21 percent to 82.30 billion dollars, faster than the 11 percent expansion in March. "The growth of 5.4 percent looks quite decent compared to a dip in the previous month," said Song Seng Wun, a regional economist with CIMB-GK Research. "At this juncture it does not seem like global demand is slowing too sharply... although going forward we'll certainly be looking at the impact of very high prices of fuel, energy, and other raw materials on household and business consumption." Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said a sustained recovery in electronics exports will depend on the health of the struggling US economy. "The bottomline here is that the US is still not out of the woods," he said. |
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Integrity
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26-Aug-2009 01:41
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Green Shoots or Greater Depression? 08/24/2009 By Bud Conrad/David Galland, Editors, The Casey Report While we aren’t contrarian for the sake of being contrary, more often than not that is the position in which we find ourselves. Today, with the media falling all over itself to paint a rosy outlook for the economy while simultaneously voicing encouragement to the new administration in its remake of the nation in previously unimaginable ways, it’s hard not to question our conviction that the worst is yet to come. Could the economy really recover this quickly from the traumatic trifecta of a record real estate bubble, leviathan levels of debt, and a global credit collapse? We don’t see it as remotely possible, but yet… but yet… there for everyone to see are countless happy headlines and breathless exhortations that the worst is behind us. So, is it Green Shoots or Greater Depression? Getting the answer right is critical, because from it flow serious consequences to each of us. And not just in our investment portfolios but in how we organize our lives. Looking for an evidence trail leading to the correct conclusion, Casey Chief Economist Bud Conrad once again put in very long hours digging through the data. Here’s what he uncovered, about the claims of green shoots, and what may actually be in store for the economy moving forward. David Galland Rather than accepting the many commentaries that our economy may be improving, let’s focus for a minute on the important forces that will play out over the decade ahead, and the minor improvements – from disastrous levels – that have given commentators such hope that the worst of our problems are behind us. What Do the “Green Shoots” Really Look Like? While some individual measures of economic activity appear slightly less dire than previously, it’s important to understand that most improvements are largely attributable to government intervention. For example, at the onset of this crisis, commercial paper spreads rose to the point that this important source of corporate short-term funding had virtually shut down. Today, those spreads have returned to almost normal levels. But the bulk of this improvement is not due to a return of confidence in the economic system but rather to the Federal Reserve directly intervening in the market with several hundred billions of dollars. And mortgage interest rates, which briefly dropped into the 4% range, did so not because of a surge in creditworthy borrowers or eager lenders… but rather because the Federal Reserve launched a program of buying $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities. Doing its part, the Treasury has poured billions into Fannie and Freddie and provides guarantees for their mortgages. In these and many other instances, the "green shoots" that optimists have spotted are really just the visible manifestations of the massive interventions by an increasingly bankrupt government. Indeed, the massive fiscal stimulus provided by the federal government – and by the Fed, which has slashed interest rates to near zero, purchased mountains of toxic waste, and bought up Treasury debt with billions in freshly printed money – are unprecedented in the history of the U.S. But even a cursory review of key metrics reveals continuing declines in housing prices, rising unemployment, and slowing consumption as measured by falling retail sales, GDP, and the collapse of world trade. Sure, housing unit sales recovered a little recently, but that’s due mostly to the distress sales of foreclosed homes and houses worth far less than the outstanding mortgage. These are not signs of a strong economy. The only rational conclusion to be drawn is that the crisis is far from over and that we are not likely to see a strong recovery anytime soon. In fact, things are likely to get much worse before they get better. The massive debt expansion that played a crucial role in creating the disastrously overleveraged economy is not shrinking. As you can see in the chart here, it’s growing ever bigger. That debt growth was fostered by U.S. government debt growth, which is now getting out of control. | |||||||||||||
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richtan
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26-Aug-2009 01:26
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U.S. Economy: Consumer Confidence, Home Prices Exceed Forecasts By Courtney Schlisserman and Shobhana Chandra Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer confidence climbed more than forecast and national home prices increased for the first time in three years, signaling government efforts to right the world’s biggest economy are starting to pay off. The Conference Board’s confidence index rose to 54.1 in August, the first gain since May, as consumers became less concerned about the outlook for jobs, the New York research group said today. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index advanced 2.9 percent in the second quarter from the previous three months, the first increase since 2006 and the biggest in almost four years. The reports underscore why President Barack Obama gave Ben S. Bernanke a vote of confidence today by nominating the head of the Federal Reserve to a second term as chairman. Indications the housing crisis that triggered the worst recession since the 1930s is dissipating boosted stocks even as the White House downgraded growth and deficit forecasts. “We’ve moved into the recovery phase,” said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economist at RDQ Economics in New York. “The talk about the recession being over, combined with better economic data, stabilization in housing and strength in equity markets is driving consumer confidence higher.” The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 0.8 percent to 1,033.35 at 11:39 a.m. in New York. Treasuries dropped, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.50 percent compared with 3.48 percent late yesterday. Four More Years Obama nominated Bernanke, who led the biggest expansion of the central bank’s power in its 95-year history to stem the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, for a second four-year term starting Jan. 31. The appointment still needs to be approved by the Senate. “It’s a reasonably positive batch of news we got this morning, including the renomination of Chairman Bernanke,” Julia Coronado, a senior U.S. economist at BNP Paribas in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. The White House Office of Management and Budget today forecast the economy will grow 2 percent in 2010, less than the 3.2 percent expected in May, and the contraction this year will be more than twice as deep as previously anticipated. Unemployment will surge to 10 percent this year and the budget deficit will be $1.5 trillion next year, both higher than the prior estimates, according to the mid-year review. Consumer confidence was projected to rise to 47.9, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 67 economists. Forecasts ranged from 42 to 51. The index averaged 57.95 last year. The Conference Board revised the July reading up to 47.4 from a previously reported 46.6. Auto Plan Consumers this quarter have benefited from government efforts such as the “cash-for-clunkers” plan and extended jobless benefits aimed at buttressing spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy. The Conference Board’s measure of present conditions increased to 24.9 from 23.3 the prior month. The gauge of expectations for the next six months jumped to 73.5, the highest since December 2007, from 63.4. “The economy is on a recovery path, that’s the overall picture,” said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse in New York. “We’re on the path but we’re not necessarily all the way to feeling better yet. We can be encouraged by the gains in expectations and we can be encouraged by the increase in house prices.” The share of consumers who said jobs are plentiful rose to 4.2 percent. The proportion of people who said jobs are hard to get decreased to 45.1 percent from 48.5 percent. Spending Limited Some retailers are finding consumers are still retrenching even as the economy shows signs of improvement. AnnTaylor Stores Inc., which sells women’s business attire, last week reported a 21 percent drop in second-quarter revenue and forecast continued pressure on sales this year. “There is no question our client is more cautious in her spending today, updating her wardrobe with fewer pieces and shopping her own closet,” Kay Krill, president and chief executive officer of AnnTaylor, said on a conference call. The S&P/Case-Shiller report showed home prices nationally were down 14.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the smallest drop in a year. The group’s monthly index of 20 cities declined 15.4 percent in June from a year earlier, the smallest drop since April 2008. The gauge rose from the prior month by the most in four years. Lower prices and government stimulus efforts have made homes more affordable to first-time buyers, spurring increases in sales that will eventually stem the slide in property values. Gains in housing and stocks will speed the process of restoring the record loss of wealth that has shackled consumer spending. “The sharp freefall in prices is over,” said Michelle Meyer, an economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. “People are entering the market and that is starting to normalize prices. It’s a clear positive.” Compared with the prior month, 18 of the 20 areas covered showed an increase, while two showed a decrease. Cleveland and San Francisco had the biggest monthly gains. To contact the reporters on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington cschlisserma@bloomberg.net; Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net Last Updated: August 25, 2009 11:44 EDT |
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Integrity
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26-Aug-2009 01:22
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If.... Fed handover the details by next week..... the bear will be back stronger.... I hope it will not happen. | |||||||||||||
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richtan
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26-Aug-2009 01:22
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Bernanke Is Nominated for Second Term as Fed Chief (Update3) By Julianna Goldman, Scott Lanman and Michael McKee Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who led the biggest expansion of the central bank’s power in its 95-year history to battle the worst economic slump since the Great Depression, was nominated to a second term today by President Barack Obama. “Ben approached a financial system on the verge of collapse with calm and wisdom, with bold action and out-of-the box thinking that has helped put the brakes on our economic freefall,” Obama said in Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts, with Bernanke at his side. Bernanke’s nomination for a second four-year term starting Jan. 31 requires Senate approval and was endorsed by the head of the Banking Committee, Christopher Dodd. The Fed chief will still face tough questioning from lawmakers who say he was slow to recognize the severity of the mortgage crisis and didn’t do enough to protect American consumers while leading bailouts of financial firms including Bear Stearns Cos. and American International Group Inc. “While I have had serious differences with the Federal Reserve over the past few years, I think reappointing Chairman Bernanke is probably the right choice,” Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, said yesterday in a statement. “There will be a thorough and comprehensive confirmation hearing.” Bernanke Pledge Bernanke today pledged to work toward restoring stability to financial markets and the economy. “I will work to the utmost of my abilities -- with my colleagues at the Federal Reserve and alongside the Congress and the administration -- to help provide a solid foundation for growth and prosperity in an environment of price stability,” he said. In the latest evidence of an economic recovery, reports today showed home values in 20 metropolitan areas decreased at a slower pace than forecast and consumer confidence rose. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index declined 15.4 percent in June from a year earlier, the smallest drop since April 2008. The Conference Board’s confidence index rose to 54.1 this month, more than forecast and the first gain in three months, from 47.4 in July. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added as much as 1.2 percent following the reports, then pared gains as a retreat in crude prices dragged down shares of oil companies. The S&P 500 Index was up 0.4 percent to 1,029.26 at 10:32 a.m. in New York. Keeping the Team Obama decided to reappoint Bernanke because he wanted to keep together the team that had weathered the crisis, an administration official said. The official said Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel and National Economic Council Chairman Larry Summers all recommended Bernanke be reappointed. Bernanke, 55, slashed the main interest rate almost to zero and pumped $1 trillion into the banking system to unfreeze credit markets. He now must guide the world’s largest economy back to growth and reduce unemployment that the Obama administration today forecast would surge to 10 percent, while also planning to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet to prevent a surge in inflation. “It’s not just that he’s done a great job of dealing creatively with the financial crisis,” said Richard Berner, co- head of global economics at Morgan Stanley in New York. “He has the capacity to deal with the challenges that lie ahead -- continuing to help the economy and markets heal and engineering the exit strategy when it’s appropriate to do so.” Bipartisan Tradition Obama, a Democrat, continues a recent tradition of bipartisanship in his decision to nominate Bernanke, a Republican, to a second term. Bernanke’s predecessor and fellow Republican, Alan Greenspan, served as Fed chief for 18 years while gaining renomination by three presidents, including Bill Clinton, a Democrat. President Ronald Reagan kept Paul Volcker, first selected by Jimmy Carter, for a second term. Almost 75 percent of investors surveyed in the first Quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll had a favorable view of the chairman in July. By almost a three-to-one margin, they said Bernanke had earned another four-year term. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has risen 52 percent since a recession low on March 9. The S&P lost 38.5 percent last year. Credit markets have also recovered: The London Interbank Offered Rate for three months loans in dollars fell to 0.38 percent today. The rate surged as high as 4.81 percent in October. Bernanke’s nomination comes as the world’s biggest economy is poised to a recover from a recession that the Obama administration today said has been deeper than previously expected. Economic Forecasts The Office of Management and Budget forecast that the economy will shrink 2.8 percent this year, worse than the 1.2 percent contraction projected in May. For next year, the budget office said gross domestic product will grow 2 percent, less than the 3.2 percent expected in May. The economy has contracted 3.9 percent since the recession began in December 2007. The Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of financial stress, fell to 20 basis points today. The spread soared to 364 basis points on Oct. 10 last year after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse. Greenspan said in a June 2008 interview he wouldn’t consider credit markets back to “normal” until the spread was at 25 basis points. Companies have sold a record $794 billion of dollar- denominated investment-grade corporate bonds this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s up from $599 billion in the same period last year. “Prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good,” Bernanke said in an Aug. 21 speech at the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole. Still, he warned of “critical challenges” ahead and added: “We have an enormous amount of work to do.” MIT Degree Ben Shalom Bernanke grew up in Dillon, South Carolina, where his family owned a pharmacy opened by his Austrian immigrant grandfather. He went north to Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, graduating summa cum laude with a bachelor’s degree in economics, then received a doctorate in economics from the neighboring Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1979. A self-described “Great Depression buff,” Bernanke joined the central bank as a governor in 2002 after serving as chairman of Princeton University’s economics department. President George W. Bush appointed Bernanke chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in 2005 before naming him a few months later to the top Fed post. “I did spend a lot of my career studying the Great Depression and other financial crises,” Bernanke said in a town-hall-style meeting on July 26 organized by PBS television. “And I didn’t expect it would be so helpful, so useful, as it has been.” Mortgage Meltdown By his own admission, Bernanke was slow to recognize the severity of the mortgage meltdown at the heart of the recession. “I and others were mistaken early on in saying that the subprime crisis would be contained,” he said in an interview last November with the New Yorker magazine. In August 2007, the collapse in credit markets forced Fed policy makers to lower the discount rate just two weeks after declaring inflation was their paramount challenge. The next month, the Fed cut its benchmark federal funds rate for the first time in four years. Bernanke came under fire for failing to prevent the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which triggered the biggest drop in the S&P 500 Index since Sept. 11, 2001, and deepened the credit freeze. “The sentiment all over the world was that such a dramatic bankruptcy of a signature institution was impossible,” said Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, in a June 15 interview. Relationship With ECB Today, Trichet said he was “extremely pleased” to learn of Bernanke’s nomination. “We have had an excellent and very close working relationship during the current episode of exceptional challenges for the world economy,” Trichet said in a statement. Bernanke called Lehman’s failure “unavoidable” in his Jackson Hole speech. No buyer could be found, he said, and the investment bank didn’t have enough collateral to qualify for a Fed loan large enough to save it. Two days after Lehman’s bankruptcy filing, the Fed took control of AIG in an $85 billion bailout designed to prevent the worst financial collapse in history. As Lehman’s collapse sent shock waves through financial markets, Bernanke launched unprecedented programs -- one to contain fallout from a run on money-market funds, and another to buy short-term debt from companies such as General Electric Co. Asset-Purchase Plan Bernanke also supported then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s proposal for a $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, initially intended to buy toxic assets from banks and later used to purchases equity stakes in the lenders themselves. In December, with the economy contracting, the Fed’s key interest rate was slashed almost to zero, where it has remained. In the following months, the Fed launched programs to pump money into the economy through purchases of mortgage-backed debt, U.S. Treasuries and securities backed by auto loans, credit cards and commercial-property mortgages. “This last couple of years has been clearly a move through uncharted territory, and as we’ve seen it’s taken a lot of unconventional moves to try to deal with the situation,” said Robert Parry, former president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank. “There’s been a lot of innovation that’s gone on, and it seems to me that much of it has been successful.” Yet the expansion of Fed authority has put Bernanke in the crosshairs of critics in Congress. Some lawmakers have accused the Fed of overstepping its authority and failing to properly supervise the financial firms that packaged and sold the mortgage-backed securities at the heart of the crisis. ‘Regulatory Malfeasance’ “I’ve been astounded and shocked by certain regulatory malfeasance of the Federal Reserve and the reserve banks in the regulatory process in the last several years,” said Alabama Senator Richard Shelby, the ranking Republican on the Banking Committee. Other lawmakers accused Bernanke of improperly pressuring Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis to proceed with its planned acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co. The House Oversight Committee subpoenaed and released dozens of Fed e-mails and other documents. Bernanke told the panel in June that the central bank acted with the “highest integrity.” There’s little indication that Bernanke would fail to gain Senate approval. The Fed chief has cultivated relationships with key members of Congress, winning their respect while they criticized some of the central bank’s actions. Senator Charles Schumer, a member of the Banking Committee and a New York Democrat, endorsed Bernanke’s reappointment, calling him “the right choice for these tough times.” To contact the reporters on this story: Julianna Goldman in Washington at jgoldman6@bloomberg.net; Scott Lanman in Washington at slanman@bloomberg.net; Michael McKee in New York at mmckee@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: August 25, 2009 10:36 EDT |
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Integrity
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26-Aug-2009 01:16
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Court Orders Federal Reserve to Disclose Emergency Loan Details Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve must for the first time identify the companies in its emergency lending programs after losing a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit. Manhattan Chief U.S. District Judge Loretta Preska ruled against the central bank yesterday, rejecting the argument that loan records aren’t covered by the law because their disclosure would harm borrowers’ competitive positions. The Fed has refused to name the financial firms it lent to or disclose the amounts or the assets put up as collateral under 11 programs, most put in place during the deepest financial crisis since the Great Depression, saying that doing so might set off a run by depositors and unsettle shareholders. Bloomberg LP, the New York-based company majority-owned by Mayor Michael Bloomberg, sued on Nov. 7 on behalf of its Bloomberg News unit. “The Federal Reserve has to be accountable for the decisions that it makes,” said Representative Alan Grayson, a Florida Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, after Preska’s ruling. “It’s one thing to say that the Federal Reserve is an independent institution. It’s another thing to say that it can keep us all in the dark.” The judge said the central bank “improperly withheld agency records” by “conducting an inadequate search” after Bloomberg News reporters filed a request under the information act. She gave the Fed five days to turn over documents it told the reporters it located, including 231 pages of reports, and said it must look for more at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which runs most of the loan programs. ‘Involuntary Investor’ The central bank “essentially speculates on how a borrower might enter a downward spiral of financial instability if its participation in the Federal Reserve lending programs were to be disclosed,” Preska wrote. “Conjecture, without evidence of imminent harm, simply fails to meet the Board’s burden” of proof. David Skidmore, a Fed spokesman who said the board’s staff was reviewing the 47-page ruling, declined to comment on whether the central bank would appeal. Bloomberg said in the suit that U.S. taxpayers need to know the terms of Fed lending because the public became an “involuntary investor” in the nation’s banks as the financial crisis deepened and the government began shoring up companies with capital injections and loans. Citigroup Inc. and American International Group Inc. are among those who have said they accepted Fed loans. ‘Public Interest’ “When an unprecedented amount of taxpayer dollars were lent to financial institutions in unprecedented ways and the Federal Reserve refused to make public any of the details of its extraordinary lending, Bloomberg News asked the court why U.S. citizens don’t have the right to know,” said Matthew Winkler, the editor-in-chief of Bloomberg News. “We’re gratified the court is defending the public’s right to know what is being done in the public interest.” The Fed’s balance sheet about doubled after lending standards were relaxed in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. on Sept. 15, 2008. For the week ended Aug. 19, Fed assets rose 2.3 percent to $2.06 trillion as it continued to buy mortgage-backed securities under a program allowing the central bank to purchase non-government securities for the first time. The U.S. House may vote as soon as next month on a bill to require the Fed to submit to audits by the Government Accountability Office, said Representative Scott Garrett, a New Jersey Republican on the Financial Services Committee. ‘Wake-Up Call’ The judge’s ruling “is strikingly good news,” Garrett said. “This is what the American people have been asking for.” The Freedom of Information Act obliges federal agencies to make government documents available to the press and public. The Bloomberg suit, filed in New York, didn’t seek money damages. “The public deserves to know what’s being done with the money,” said Lucy Dalglish, executive director of the Arlington, Virginia-based Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press. “This ought to be a wake-up call for the public that they need to be far more educated about this.” The case is Bloomberg LP v. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 08-CV-9595, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan). |
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Integrity
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26-Aug-2009 01:13
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Wall Street suffers heartburn over court order to FedNames of credit recipients should be released, federal judge saysWASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Wall Street analysts reacted with concern Tuesday after a federal judge said the Federal Reserve should release names of financial institutions that have participated in the central bank's emergency funding program over the past two years. "If this decision stands...you will see the Mother of All Runs to the Door," wrote Stephen Stanley, economist at RBS, in a note to clients. Banks will rush to exit from all of the Fed credit programs, Stanley said. Banks that cannot leave quickly will be "in big trouble" with immediate downward pressure on their share price, Stanley said. In response to the looming financial market crisis in early 2007, the Fed lowered the standards on the quality of collateral it would accept for loans from banks. It allowed other financial institutions to have access to its emergency liquidity and established several new programs to funnel credit to banks. The idea was to give banks badly needed funds to weather the crisis. The Fed does not publish any information on the new loans other than in aggregate form. Bloomberg News L.P requested the names of the institutions that were participating in the Fed programs, the type of collateral that they were giving to the Fed, and the "haircut" the Fed was demanding on the credit, under the Freedom of Information Act. When the Fed denied the request, Bloomberg filed suit. In a ruling Monday, federal judge Loretta Preska agreed with Bloomberg and said the Fed should release the names of the participants in its innovative credit programs. Preska also ordered the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to search its files for relevant information. The regional Fed banks consider themselves private corporations not subject to the FOIA law. The Fed has consistently argued that releasing the bank's names might harm the institutions. In her 47-page ruling, Preska said that the information couldn't be withheld simply because it might be negative. The next step in the case is whether the Fed decides to appeal. A spokesman for the central bank would say only that the ruling was under review |
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