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singaporegal
Supreme |
27-Aug-2009 15:13
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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x 0 Alert Admin |
Many important US reports out tonight. GDP, PCE and Jobless Claims. Market will be cautious. Watch out for these. |
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Integrity
Veteran |
27-Aug-2009 13:15
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x 1 Alert Admin |
Market is beginning for correction as sellers is currently more than buyers, tomorrow is Friday so do expect even more downturn. | ||
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richtan
Supreme |
27-Aug-2009 11:18
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Hahaha... will H.S. Dent be dented like Roubini (see below): Applying Roubini Wisdom to Stocks Means Missing Out (Update3) By Whitney Kisling Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Making money on the thinking of Nouriel Roubini isn’t what it used to be. The New York University professor, who in 2006 foretold the worst financial unraveling since the Great Depression, has yet to say the economy is worth investing in again. “There is a big risk of a double-dip recession,” wrote Roubini, also known as Dr. Doom, in his column in the Financial Times this week. Anyone attempting to apply Roubini’s wisdom to stocks may be forgiven for missing the biggest rally since the 1930s as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 52 percent in six months. While Roubini said in March the advance was a “dead-cat bounce,” that it may “fizzle” in May and warned in July that the economy’s “not out of the woods,” the MSCI World Index was posting a 58 percent gain, the largest since it began in 1970. “We’re looking at a bull cycle in phase one,” Laszlo Birinyi said in a telephone interview yesterday. Birinyi was the top-ranked Dow Jones Industrial Average forecaster for most of the 1990s on PBS’s “Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser.” “No one wants to come out and say, ‘This is a bull market.’ Everyone’s just dancing around the term,” he said. The S&P 500 added 14 percent since Westport, Connecticut- based Birinyi Associates Inc., which manages $350 million, said on May 20 that a bull market had begun, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Roubini, who forecast in October 2008 that the U.S. was in a recession that would last 24 months, said on March 9 that the index might fall back to 600. It has risen to 1,028 since then. $4 Trillion Gained The S&P 500 increased 0.12 point, or less than 1 percent, to 1,028.12 at 4 p.m. in New York today, rising for the sixth time in seven days. The MSCI World Index slipped 0.4 percent. About $4 trillion has been restored to U.S. equity markets since March following better-than-forecast corporate profits and signs of an improving economy. More than 72 percent of the S&P 500’s companies beat analysts’ average estimates for second- quarter earnings, matching the highest proportion since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 1993. The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators has risen four consecutive months. Roubini’s July 2006 warning about the financial crisis protected investors from losses in the S&P 500’s worst annual tumble in seven decades. He also correctly warned investors to avoid stocks following the steepest advances in 2008. On Dec. 12, he said U.S. stocks might fall 20 percent after the S&P 500 gained 17 percent in three weeks. The index lost 23 percent through March 9, 2009. During an 18 percent jump in the index between Oct. 27 and Nov. 4, Roubini warned the S&P 500 might reverse course and lose 30 percent. It dropped 28 percent through March. ‘Understand the Market’ He may have missed this year’s bull market because Roubini isn’t focused on stocks, according to Birinyi. Roubini has “done a very good job on the economy,” Birinyi said in an interview Aug. 24. “Our approach is to try to understand the market and not try to do much more than that.” Jonathan D. Goldberg, a New York-based spokesman for Roubini, said he wasn’t available to comment because he’s on vacation. Roubini, 51, wrote this week in the Financial Times that the economy may worsen again even after it stops shrinking this year. The global contraction will bottom in the second half of 2009, and the recession in the U.S. won’t be “formally over” before the end of the year, he said. ‘Fizzle Out’ The forecast was a reiteration of Roubini’s call for an 18- to 24-month contraction that he made in October 2008. The recession began in December 2007, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee. Roubini told Bloomberg Television on May 13 that the stock market’s rally “might fizzle out,” citing expectations for weak growth in earnings. On March 9, he said it was “highly likely” the S&P 500 would fall to 600 or below because of plunging profits, an accelerating contraction in the global economy and a deteriorating outlook for banks. The index reached a 12-year low of 676.53 that day and has since climbed for almost six months. Reports on industrial production, housing starts and car sales, along with comments from the Federal Reserve that the economy is “leveling out,” helped boost equities in the world’s largest economy. In July 2006, Roubini predicted the financial crisis that led to $1.6 trillion in credit-related losses and writedowns. He forecast a “catastrophic” meltdown in February 2008, leading to the bankruptcy of large banks with mortgage holdings and a “sharp drop” in equities. Bear Stearns, Lehman Since then, Bear Stearns Cos. and Merrill Lynch & Co. were taken over, American International Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. required government bailouts and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for the world’s biggest bankruptcy. All the companies were based in New York. Birinyi, 65, who spent a decade on the trading desk at Salomon Brothers Inc. before founding Birinyi Associates in 1989, said on May 20 that the S&P 500 may reach 1,700 by 2011, shifting from his April 13 call that the market had risen too much “by almost every measure.” In October 2007, he told investors to avoid bank stocks, saying bad loans and lower revenue from underwriting would damp earnings. The S&P 500 Financials Index then plunged 82 percent through March 6, 2009. “Both of them just have a pretty deep understanding of the history of economic and business cycles,” said Eric Teal, who oversees $5 billion as chief investment officer at First Citizens Bank in Raleigh, North Carolina. “Roubini has just had more of an academic background, whereas Birinyi has been much more in the spotlight managing money and working in capital markets.” Growth Forecasts The U.S. economy has contracted four straight quarters. It will expand 2.2 percent during the third quarter and 2 percent in the fourth, before growing 2.3 percent in 2010, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Roubini, who received a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University in 1988, was a member of Yale University’s faculty until joining NYU in 1995. He started his consulting firm, Roubini Global Economics LLC, in 2004, providing subscribers access to written and broadcast commentary and archived data. The firm’s 1,300 institutional clients include asset managers and hedge funds, as well as investment banks and universities. Roubini doesn’t invest any money on behalf of customers. “There’s a lot more weight behind pundits who put their money where their mouth is,” said Jack Ablin, who oversees $60 billion as chief investment officer of Harris Private Bank in Chicago. “Where I get up and pay attention is when I see someone who’s been bearish go bullish.” To contact the reporter on this story: Whitney Kisling in New York at wkisling@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: August 26, 2009 17:43 EDT |
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HLJHLJ
Veteran |
27-Aug-2009 09:28
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CW, i'm using this as well, learning frm you and investmentu.com. This is called momentum investing. We follow the momentum and cut fast on bads news. Last time, i used taking profit method and when it rises further, I normally wait hoping for it to come down but missed altogether. Momentum investing works for me well. Again, all depends on personality. If one dares to go in again, then profit taking method works. For me, I used noise margin method and momentum investing as it works well. In markets, we have noise as well. So set a margin for no action. | ||
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cheongwee
Elite |
27-Aug-2009 02:20
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actually, you shd sell on bad news..so you dont miss more profit..and keep a few counter only.. i try this before , end up missing lot of profit...you know the day the stock market collapse it also the market high...so if we just sell to bad news, we miss a little profit...instead of sell out first, then watching ppl profiting from the side line.. what i did, last 1 week is to sell out and group into some 4 stock..so when time come i unload fast.and at the same time i did not miss out selling near the top...jmo
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Integrity
Veteran |
27-Aug-2009 01:43
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x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
Profit is more important than losses with more than 50% of profit taking, i am more than happy to have this earning in such a bad economy. |
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cheongwee
Elite |
27-Aug-2009 01:39
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
u miss some ,selling at low...
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Integrity
Veteran |
27-Aug-2009 01:34
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x 0 Alert Admin |
Yes, almost all sold... I believe i can enter later at a cheaper price. Stocks are all overpriced now, no point holding on. It is time to let go, profit in pocket is better. |
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cheongwee
Elite |
27-Aug-2009 01:31
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
u sound like u are out of the market...u sold all out , right?
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Integrity
Veteran |
27-Aug-2009 01:31
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
I think tomorrow all the markets will be in red due to the rally is loosing steam, profit takings soon. | ||
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Integrity
Veteran |
27-Aug-2009 01:28
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Life will be tough when inflation is a concern. | ||
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cheongwee
Elite |
27-Aug-2009 01:23
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
why???
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cheongwee
Elite |
27-Aug-2009 01:19
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
u could be right...everytime dollar strengthen , stock sink...tonite dollar heading north again.. i dont know the reason..safe haven???
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Integrity
Veteran |
27-Aug-2009 01:16
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Almost all the stocks are largely overpriced now and i believe with effect from this Friday onwards, shorters will be large winners. |
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Integrity
Veteran |
27-Aug-2009 01:13
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
If 2010 belong to Gold and silver, i will not be happy also... |
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cheongwee
Elite |
27-Aug-2009 01:10
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
I hope i am right...2010 belong to gold and silver... 40%.vested....you be very happy.
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Integrity
Veteran |
27-Aug-2009 01:09
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Given the increasing high unemployment rate in US, i doubt the largest economy is recovering now. Sorry, i am not optimistic at all after reviewing through the incurred huge amount of debt, high unemployment rate and the withdrawal of stimulus plans soon, i believe a major correction will be very near, latest by next month September. Keeping my fingers crossed... I hope i am wrong about this. |
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cheongwee
Elite |
27-Aug-2009 01:08
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
i sorry to tok gold here...hope ppl dont mind..for this time.. my guess is stock take a beating toward late summer, dollar soar( safe haven ) and gold collapse.. so pls dyodd to buy gold...my prediction base on reading newsletter.. |
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cheongwee
Elite |
27-Aug-2009 01:04
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
even economy recover, it is going to be inflationary, with those trillion dollar floating around......gold to benefit. | ||
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Integrity
Veteran |
27-Aug-2009 01:01
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
At least 40% of my portfolio is in Gold now. I don't really trust paper too much nowadays. Even if economy is recovering which i don't think anytime soon, Gold price will still be stable | ||
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