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Midas
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richtan
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17-Aug-2009 10:29
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Frankly, imo, I m unfazed by this dips as it presents a good buy opportunity. Look at it in perspective, it is down bcos of the general mkt is down, nothing wrong with this counter, the wise will be buying.
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risktaker
Supreme |
17-Aug-2009 10:12
Yells: "Sometimes you think you know, but in fact you dont" |
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On sale NOW -- Kin buy bo... later cheong u cry | ||||
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richtan
Supreme |
17-Aug-2009 09:24
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From OCBC
Midas will be building three downstream fabrication lines for a total of ~S$45m that will be able to process 1000 train cars/year. The three lines are part of Midas’ strategy to cement its dominance and sustain margins in the domestic railway industry as it transforms into one-stop shop for aluminium train profiles and components. The company’s RMB1.4b order book will likely be filled more when the PRC government awards its 2nd phase of train contracts for 4000+ train cars. Today, Midas’ firm order book and more anticipated contract wins in Sep-Nov 09 for both NPRT and itself will serve to under-gird valuations. We have pegged Midas at 20x (prev. 18x) FY10F PER and our fair value is S$1.05 Maintain BUY. (Kelly Chia)
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yipyip
Master |
17-Aug-2009 09:18
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From OCBC Mon, 17 Aug 2009, 08:53:19 Market Pulse: Midas, Wilmar, Golden Agri, Tat Hong, PAH, Foreland, Hotel Grand, KS Energy, Rickmers & Z-OBEE (17 Aug 2009) FOCUS Midas Holdings Ltd: Buttressed valuations. Maintain BUY. fair value is S$1.05 Summary: Midas Holdings (Midas) posted 2Q09 revenue of S$37.8m (-2% YoY, +20% QoQ) and bottomline of S$9.4m (+10% YoY, +11% QoQ). Maximum utilisation and current favourable cost-plus contracts aided its performance. Midas will be building three downstream fabrication lines for a total of ~S$45m that will be able to process 1000 train cars/year. The three lines are part of Midas’ strategy to cement its dominance and sustain margins in the domestic railway industry as it transforms into one-stop shop for aluminium train profiles and components. The company’s RMB1.4b order book will likely be filled more when the PRC government awards its 2nd phase of train contracts for 4000+ train cars. Today, Midas’ firm order book and more anticipated contract wins in Sep-Nov 09 for both NPRT and itself will serve to under-gird valuations. We have pegged Midas at 20x (prev. 18x) FY10F PER and our fair value is S$1.05 (prev. S$0.93). Maintain BUY. (Kelly Chia) Wilmar: 2Q09 results mostly in line Summary: Wilmar reported its 2Q09 results last Friday; revenue was down 27.0% YoY at US$5,712.3m, but net profit rose 22.7% to US$407.2m. On a sequential basis, revenue rose 15.2%, which was 9.9% ahead of our estimate, while earnings rose 7.2%, about 0.5% below our forecast. For the half year, revenue fell 28.7% to US$10,670.4m, meeting 42.0% of our FY09 estimate, while net profit gained 16.6% to US$787.1m, or nearly 60.8% of our full-year number. Management remains upbeat about its 2H09 prospects. We are raising our FY09 and FY10 earnings estimates by 18.9% and 14.4%, respectively, to reflect its better profitability. This in turn improves our fair value from S$5.78 to S$7.28, still based on 20x blended FY09/FY10 PER. Maintain BUY. (Carey Wong) Golden Agri-Resources Ltd: Maintain HOLD Summary: Golden Agri Resources (GAR) released its 2Q09 results on Friday; revenue was down 30.7% YoY but rebounded 37.2% QoQ to US$565.6m; net profit tumbled 64.7% YoY but was up nearly 543.0% QoQ to US$55.1m. Operationally, it appears that the worst of the previous tree stress (due to the drought in 2006) has passed; management is hopeful of seeing better production numbers in 2H09. And while there may be a possible El Nino effect this year, management believes that the impact will probably be felt some 12 months later. We have also raised our CPO assumptions for this year from US$600/ton to US$620/ton, and this in turn bumps up our FY09 revenue forecast by 6.8%; but only raised our net profit estimate by 4.2% as GAR will still need to work through the excess fertilizer that it had bought at a much higher price late last year. Using a higher 12x blended FY09/FY10 EPS valuation (vs. 10x previously), our fair value will rise from S$0.35 to S$0.45. Given the limited upside, we maintain our HOLD rating. (Carey Wong) |
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richtan
Supreme |
17-Aug-2009 00:44
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Hi raymondho, U r most welcome, but always remember not to follow anyone's post blindly. Remember, dyodd n BOSAYOR as it is fair tat we can't blame the poster for our losses (we take responsibilty for our own actions) as likewise we dun share our winnings with the poster, right.
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raymondho
Senior |
17-Aug-2009 00:36
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Thanks, Richtan Take note of your points. As I have been losing so much in the past, this time I must equip myself and learn from all of you who have in-depth knowledge and experience, hope to recover some losing $$ and look forward to turn a bit rich... ha ha. I used to follow your post and Bintang's. Of course some more seniors'. |
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richtan
Supreme |
16-Aug-2009 23:33
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Hi Bintang, U r most welcome. We are here to built cameraderie n learn n alert each other, tats is the right mindset to adopt
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richtan
Supreme |
16-Aug-2009 23:24
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Hi raymondho, I had aredi shared with u my views on those indicators as lagging which I dun pay much attention but more as secondary indicators to lend credence and more firm support to my leading indicators if it too agrees with the leading indicators. I learnt from some TA books tat emas are better than sma, thus where I chose 3 emas, one short-term (15ema), one mid-term (25ema) and last one, long-term (65ema). The candles must be read in combination with the vol (daily and weekly), see my annotations in my chart analysis.
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richtan
Supreme |
16-Aug-2009 23:14
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I too hope tomoro, Midas shows up n plse her fans but at the same time gentle reminder not to get emotional and not let go our guard and set our stop-losses, as nothing is guaranteed
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richtan
Supreme |
16-Aug-2009 23:08
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Hi raymondho. U r most welcome. I too hope to learn from u and all fellow forumers, tats why I m always open-minded n receptive to others views. Learning is a lifelong process. Todays' National Day rally reminds us to "Live and let live", we all have differing views, we discuss and exchange views without the need to flame each other nor rate each other as bad, share a common space here. I graciously extend my hand to those tat does not see eyes to eyes with me to let past grudges, if any, be waters under the bridge, be magnanamous, let go hatred, lets be constructive and harmonious, reply and share your disagreements, I too hope to learn from u.
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risktaker
Supreme |
16-Aug-2009 22:49
Yells: "Sometimes you think you know, but in fact you dont" |
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There are things i cant share/reveal as it will make the game difficult for us. But lets see how people play catch up tomorrow.
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raymondho
Senior |
16-Aug-2009 22:28
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Hi! Richtan and Risktaker, Thank you for both your posting. Understand, now I am with better mood to see thing. Agree with you Richtan, that why I always feel confuss why the price movement shows reversed direction with those indicators. Learn a lot from you. Once again, Thank you. Hope tomolo Midas shows up and pleases all her fans.
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star-trader
Senior |
16-Aug-2009 22:15
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Me with you. rgds, star-trader |
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raymondho
Senior |
16-Aug-2009 22:10
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Thanks, Richtan, Finally manage to post it up. I do agree Midas FA is very strong with order book full up to 2010. But from the chart it shows short term downtrend even their qtr result is out, but less strenght. I doubt Monday's opening will show up. May I have your view on my interpretating of chart? Vested
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raymondho
Senior |
16-Aug-2009 22:05
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risktaker
Supreme |
16-Aug-2009 19:56
Yells: "Sometimes you think you know, but in fact you dont" |
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Passengers would be able to travel between Beijing and most capital cities in China in eight hours by 2012, through a nationwide express railway network, according to the Ministry of Railways. As about 10,000 km of passenger railways are currently under construction, a total of 13,000 km of passenger railways and intercity railways will be put into operation in 2012. The network would consist of four north-south and four west-east lines of railways throughout the country, which would connect most capital cities and major cities in China, including Shanghai, Guangzhou, Taiyuan and Nanjing. China planned to invest at least 700 billion yuan ($102.49 billion) per year in railway construction over the next three years, said Vice Railway Minister Wang Zhiguo Monday. By the end of this year, China would have a total of 86,000 km rail lines, second only to the United States, Wang said |
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risktaker
Supreme |
16-Aug-2009 19:48
Yells: "Sometimes you think you know, but in fact you dont" |
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Richtan dont worry about those unwanted noise :) Sometimes people see things differently. I agree with you that those are lagging indicators. I have a strong feeling tomorrow people will be chasing midas. lol. Midas $0.80 will be none existance after tomorrow . Huat Ah :) $1.28 here we come.
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star-trader
Senior |
16-Aug-2009 18:54
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Bintang, Thanks for that.. Yup, helping each others to learn as everyone has their own way of trading and advices which I think is necessary.. rgds, star-trader.. |
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Bintang
Elite |
16-Aug-2009 18:48
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Hi richtan , star-trader n raymondho , thanks for all your valuable comments , as we are in this risky trading market , to warn n giving advice to each others are neccessary , hoping for the best n preparing for the worst , n last but not least is setting stop-loss protection is a' must ' . Thank u all gentlemen . | ||||
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richtan
Supreme |
16-Aug-2009 17:52
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Hi raymondho, Read my ealier reply to Bintang regardind ADX. Personally, I dun read too much into those indicators u mentioned as they are lagging indicators, I pay more attention to the candles, their patterns, the emas and the vol as these are leading indicators to me. Stoch is moree applicable when the stock price is range-bound but lose its significance in a trending stock. This is based on my knowledge, feel free to disagree by sharing your knowledge, so tat we can learn from one another..
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