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richtan
Supreme |
06-Aug-2009 22:52
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Dow Gives Monthly Buy Signal ... by Larry Edelson In this week's video, I review the important monthly buy signal the Dow just hit last Friday, plus what's happening in gold, oil, the dollar, and more. To check out the video, click here now. Best, Larry |
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el7888
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06-Aug-2009 21:49
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U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fall More Than Projected (Update1) By Bob Willis Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits fell more than economists predicted, a sign some employers have stopped paring staff as the recession eases. Applications dropped by 38,000 to 550,000 in the week ended Aug. 1, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington, marking the fifth consecutive week of fewer than 600,000 claims. The total number of people collecting unemployment insurance rose. The pace of job cuts has slowed even as unemployment is projected to exceed 10 percent by early next year. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News say a report tomorrow will show the jobless rate jumped to the highest in 26 years in July. Stagnating wages and falling home values also mean consumer spending, 70 percent of the economy, will be slow to recover. “These numbers signal the worst is behind us, but we are not out of the woods yet,” said David Semmens, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York. “We are not going to see strong consumer spending with numbers that look like this.” Economists forecast claims would drop to 580,000 from a previously estimated 584,000, according to the median of 40 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 550,000 to 600,000. The four-week moving average, a less-volatile measure than weekly initial claims, fell to 555,250 from 560,000 the prior week. Continuing Claims The level of continuing claims increased by 69,000 to 6.31 million in the week ended July 25. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, held at 4.7 percent in the week ended July 25. Eight states and territories reported an increase in new claims, while 45 reported a decrease. These data are also reported with a one-week lag. U.S. employers have eliminated 6.5 million positions since the recession began in December 2007, the most of any downturn since the Great Depression. The Labor Department will probably report tomorrow that the economy lost 328,000 jobs in July, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, following a decline of 467,000 in June. The jobless rate probably rose to 9.6 percent from 9.5 percent, the survey showed. Many companies continue to cut jobs and hours even as economists forecast a return to growth in the current quarter. Auto Layoffs General Motors Co. may have to cut more U.S. hourly jobs after an offer of buyouts and early retirements fell about 7,500 workers short of the reorganized automaker’s target, Sherrie Childers Arb, a spokeswoman, said in an interview on Aug. 3. She made the remarks after GM announced that more than 6,000 United Auto Workers members, or 11 percent of the hourly workforce, left the company Aug. 1. GM’s latest voluntary exits pushed the total of U.S. hourly workers leaving through buyouts and retirement offers to about 66,000 since 2006. The biggest domestic automaker is shrinking its workforce to match reductions including the shutdown of 14 U.S. plants and 3 warehouses by the end of 2011. Jobless claims tend to be volatile in late June and July when automakers typically halt production and idle workers to re-equip factories to build new models. GM and Chrysler Group LLC halted production earlier than usual as they worked through bankruptcy proceedings. GM emerged from bankruptcy last month and Chrysler did the same in June. Buckeye Partners LP, the Breinigsville, Pennsylvania-based operator of U.S. oil- and gas-product pipelines, said July 20 that it will eliminate about 260 jobs, or 25 percent of its workforce, because of the “current economic environment” and may sell a conduit in the U.S. West. “We must continuously challenge ourselves, particularly in the current economic environment, to ensure that we are positioned to generate the highest utilization of our assets at the lowest cost,” Forrest E. Wylie, chief executive officer of Buckeye’s general partner, said in a statement on July 20. To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington bwillis@bloomberg.net Last Updated: August 6, 2009 08:46 EDT |
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Blastoff
Elite |
06-Aug-2009 21:47
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Stocks set for higher startFutures turn higher after unemployment claims fall. Investors await Friday's jobs report.NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks are expected to open higher Thursday after the number of people filing for unemployment fell. At 8:43 a.m. ET, Dow Jones industrial average, Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were all higher. Futures had stagnated prior to the jobless report. Futures measure current index values against their perceived future performance and offer an indication of how markets may open when trading begins. Economy: The number of people filing unemployment claims last week fell more than expected. The report comes a day before the U.S. Labor Department releases its closely watched monthly jobs report. Earnings: Tech bellwether Cisco Systems (CSCO, Fortune 500) reported a drop in quarterly profit and revenue after U.S. markets closed Wednesday. World markets: Global stocks headed higher. Markets in Asia finished the session in positive territory, with Japan's Nikkei adding 1%. Major European markets were also higher in morning trading. Oil hovered around $72 a barrel. The dollar was flat versus the euro and up against the yen. |
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el7888
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06-Aug-2009 16:17
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Obama launches economic counter-attack
WASHINGTON: Despite staggering job losses and nationwide financial misery, President Barack Obama has a new message for recession-weary Americans: the pulse of the sickly US economy is quickening. |
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el7888
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06-Aug-2009 07:58
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US private sector cut 371,000 jobs in July: ADP
WASHINGTON: The US private sector shed 371,000 jobs in July, sharply lower than the preceding month but more than expected amid the severe and long recession, a survey by payrolls firm ADP showed on Wednesday. |
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DnApeh
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06-Aug-2009 07:28
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good morning, richtan. last night got volume leh! :)
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el7888
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05-Aug-2009 23:34
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U.S. Stocks Retreat on Worse-Than-Estimated Jobs, Service Data By Matt Townsend Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, dragging the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down from a nine-month high, after reports on job losses and service industries were worse than economists estimated. Nine of the 10 main industry groups in the S&P 500 declined, led by industrial and consumer companies, as United Technologies Corp. and Walt Disney Co. slumped at least 1.5 percent. Procter & Gamble Co., the world’s largest household- products maker, dropped 3.2 percent after profit fell on lower sales of higher-priced skin care and detergents. The S&P 500 slipped 0.8 percent to 997.79 as of 10:07 a.m. in New York. The gauge climbed yesterday to 0.1 point below its close on Nov. 4, the day President Barack Obama was elected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 76.63 points to 9,243.56. “Data is less bad, but it’s still going to be weak,” said Tim Hartzell, who manages $300 million as chief investment officer for Houston-based Sequent Asset Management. “The talk is all about the smaller companies that are now into that next phase of downsizing. That’s what we have to go through. There’s going to be some smaller and midsize companies that have to go out of business to reduce capacity.” Yesterday’s advance pushed the valuation of the S&P 500 to about 17.5 times its companies’ earnings over the past 12 months, the highest level since May 2008, according to daily data compiled by Bloomberg. Since reaching a 12-year low of 676.53 on March 9, the S&P 500 has rebounded 49 percent, the steepest rally since the 1930s. ADP, ISM Reports Benchmark indexes opened lower after data from ADP Employer Services showed companies cut 371,000 workers from payrolls in July, more than the average estimate of 350,000 in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The figures from the world’s largest payroll processor have shown declines in employment since February 2008. Equities extended losses after the Institute for Supply Management’s index of non- manufacturing businesses, which make up almost 90 percent of the economy, fell to 46.4 from 47 in June. Fifty is the dividing line between expansion and contraction. Procter & Gamble dropped 3.2 percent to $53.69 after saying profit net income for the period ended June 30 dropped to $2.47 billion, or 80 cents share, from $3.02 billion, or 92 cents, a year earlier. Whole Foods Rallies Whole Foods Market Inc. rallied 20 percent to $29.65. The company said net income was 25 cents a share in the period ended July 5, exceeding the average estimate of 20 cents in a survey of 13 analysts by Bloomberg. Whole Foods raised its full-year profit forecast after reducing expenses and using coupons to lure customers. Garmin Ltd., the maker of car navigation devices, surged 23 percent to $33.37 after posting earnings that beat analysts’ estimates by 61 percent. The company also said the first quarter “seems to have represented the low point” in declining revenue. Per-share earnings have beaten estimates at three-quarters of the 411 companies in the S&P 500 that released second-quarter results since June 17, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Companies in the S&P 500 are still headed for a record eighth consecutive drop in quarterly profits. Per-share earnings have tumbled 31 percent on average. Analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg predict a 31 percent drop in the second quarter and a 22 percent third-quarter decline. While earnings are falling, results have surpassed projections by an average 9.5 percent. Dynavax Technologies Corp. rallied 12 percent to $2.05. The biotechnology company developing products for infectious disease said it expects to resume trials on a hepatitis B vaccine as early as next month. To contact the reporter on this story: Matt Townsend in New York at mtownsend9@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: August 5, 2009 10:10 EDT |
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DnApeh
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05-Aug-2009 23:17
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Perhaps right shoulder not yet formed. Maybe 9,321 is the 2nd point for neckline. Keeping an open mind is the way.
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richtan
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05-Aug-2009 22:56
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Agree with u, but hopefully the more than 10 days of rally after breaking the neckline compensate for the lacking volume and also hopefully the 200ema and worse case the 90ma provides support.
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DnApeh
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05-Aug-2009 22:45
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Generally agree with you, but volume, which is rather important for a reverse H&S, is missing. | |||||||||||||
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richtan
Supreme |
05-Aug-2009 22:37
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Notice tat DOW broke above the inverse H&S and now above the neckline, around the 200ema (about 8800). DOW 90ma and 200ema are turning upwards and going to crossover soon: DOW may pullback to 9000 or the 200ema (neckline) to test the neckline as a support, but tat does not negate the uptrend so l ong as it does not closed below the neckline for 2 days continuously. 
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richtan
Supreme |
05-Aug-2009 11:07
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DOW may pullback to the 200ema (neckline) to test the neckline as a support, but tat does not negate the uptrend so long as it does not closed below the neckline for 2 days continuously.
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richtan
Supreme |
05-Aug-2009 10:29
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Notice tat DOW broke above the inverse H&S and now above the neckline, around the 200ema (about 8800). DOW 90ma and 200ema are turning upwards and going to crossover soon: 
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richtan
Supreme |
05-Aug-2009 09:49
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richtan
Supreme |
05-Aug-2009 00:28
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richtan
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04-Aug-2009 23:46
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richtan
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04-Aug-2009 22:42
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Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Surged 3.6% in June By Courtney Schlisserman Aug. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The number of contracts to buy previously owned homes in the U.S. rose in June for a fifth straight month and exceeded economists’ forecasts, as lower prices and mortgage rates attracted buyers. The 3.6 percent gain in the index of signed purchase agreements, or pending home resales, followed a 0.8 percent gain the prior month that was larger than previously estimated, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. Foreclosure-driven declines in home values and tax incentives are putting houses within reach of first-time buyers, helping to stabilize the real-estate market, which has been the biggest drag on economic growth. At the same time, with mortgage rates no longer dropping and unemployment still rising, it may be months before a sustained recovery in housing takes hold. The housing market “seems to definitely be finding its legs,” Maxwell Clarke, chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal in New York, said before the report. “Both for new and existing home sales, as prices continue to come down and the tax credit is in effect, the prospect of moving into a new house or buying a new house is much more appealing.” Economists forecast the index would increase 0.7 percent, after an originally reported 0.1 percent gain in May, according to the median of 35 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a 1.2 percent drop to a 3 percent gain. Incomes, Spending A report from the Commerce Department today, meanwhile, showed personal incomes tumbled 1.3 percent in June, more than forecast and the biggest drop in four years. The report showed spending rose 0.4 percent as prices climbed. Adjusted for inflation, purchases fell 0.1 percent, the report showed. Incomes had jumped in May by the most in a year as tax cuts and the Obama administration’s stimulus package pushed the U.S. savings rate to a 15-year high. Pending resales are considered a leading indicator because they track contract signings. NAR’s existing-home sales report tallies closings, which typically occur a month or two later. The group, whose pending data goes back to January 2001, started publishing the index in March 2005. All four regions in the U.S. saw an increase in pending sales, today’s report showed, led by a 7.1 percent gain in the South and a 2.9 percent increase in the West. “Activity has been consistently much stronger for lower priced homes,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement, noting that first-time buyers must see their contracts close by Nov. 30 to get an $8,000 tax credit. Affordability Index The agents’ association said July 23 that home resales in June rose for a third straight month, supporting the case that the industry’s downturn, now in its fourth year, will end in 2009. The median price dropped 15 percent from a year earlier. Sales of new homes soared 11 percent in June, the most since 2000, according to Commerce data released July 27. The Realtors’ group’s affordability index, which takes into account home values, household incomes and mortgage rates, reached a record high of 178.8 in April. The index was at 159.2 in June. Readings greater than 100 indicate a family earning the median income can afford a median-priced home at current borrowing costs. M.D.C. Holdings Inc., the Denver-based builder of Richmond America Homes, said July 31 that its orders had increased on a quarterly basis for the first time in four years. “Building and sales activity for the industry overall improved from historic lows recorded earlier this year,” M.D.C. Chief Executive Officer Larry Mizel said in a statement. Mortgage Rates While mortgage rates have crept higher as the economy improves, they are still below year-earlier levels and near record lows. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 5.25 percent in the week ended July 30, according to Freddie Mac, compared with 6.52 percent in the same week a year earlier. Rates reached an all-time low of 4.78 percent in late April. A weak labor market is one reason economists say a rebound in housing will be slow to develop. The unemployment rate, which reached a 25-year high of 9.5 percent in June, may exceed 10 percent by early 2010, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg last month. The Labor Department is scheduled to release July payrolls data on Aug. 7. Rising defaults and foreclosures may depress property values for months, making buying a home risky even though such purchases become more affordable and perpetuating a difficult climate for homebuilders. Foreclosure filings reached a record 1.5 million in the first half of the year, according to data from RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California-based seller of default data. Ryland Group Inc., a California homebuilder that focuses on first-time buyers, reported a second-quarter loss on July 30 that was greater than analysts estimated. New orders fell 16 percent to 1,716 in the period, the company said. To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington cschlisserma@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: August 4, 2009 10:00 EDT |
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richtan
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04-Aug-2009 22:11
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DOW looks pretty resilient, looking at my DOW chart posting, believe it will head towards 10,000, albeit not in a straight line, with some corrections in between. 
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Blastoff
Elite |
04-Aug-2009 07:04
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Stocks kick off August with a rallyEconomic reports, auto sales and corporate earnings push the Dow and S&P 500 to 9-month highs, the Nasdaq to a 10-month peak. The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 115 points, or 1.3%, ending at a fresh 9-month high. The S&P 500 (SPX) index added 15 points, or 1.5%, ending above the 1,000 level for the first time since last November. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 30 points, or 1.5%, closing above 2,000 for the first time since last November. Stocks are coming off the best July in years, after a spate of better-than-expected quarterly results reassured investors that the economy is getting closer to stabilizing. Last week, the first-quarter GDP report showed the economy shrank at a 1% rate, versus forecasts for a bigger contraction. In July, the Dow gained 8.6%, its best July since 1989 and its best month overall since October 2002. The S&P 500 gained 7.4%, its best July since 1988 and its best month since April. The Nasdaq rose 7.8% in the month, its best July since 1997 and the best month overall since this past April. The July advance -- now stretching into August -- has marked something of a second leg of the rally that started in the spring, said Mike Stanfield, chief investment officer at VSR Financial Services. Between March 9 and June 12, the S&P 500 gained 40%. But for the next four weeks, stocks drifted lower as investors worried that the market had risen too far, too fast. Once the quarterly earnings reports came out better than expected, stocks resumed the climb. "The continuation of a rally is going to be dependent on leading indicators showing strength," he said, such as Monday's manufacturing report. Longer term, "I think Asia could lead us out of this worldwide slump," he said. "I think this time around we are not going to be the engines of growth, but we are going to benefit." He said that the recent rally in oil and gold prices ties into that trend. On Tuesday morning, the Commerce Department releases its June readings on personal income and spending. Also Tuesday morning, the National Association of Realtors releases the pending home sales index. Economy: The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index rose to 48.9 in July from 44.8 in June. That was better than the 46.5 economists were expecting, but still short of the 50 level that indicates expansion in the sector. Construction spending rose 0.3% in June versus forecasts for a decline of 0.5%, according to Briefing.com. Spending fell 0.9% in May. Autos: Ford Motor reported a gain in July auto sales and other major automakers cut losses, as the government's Cash for Clunkers program helped stimulate sales of cars and trucks. Ford (F, Fortune 500), the only one of the so-called Big Three automakers that didn't file for bankruptcy protection, said July sales rose 2% versus a year ago. It is the first U.S. automaker to report a rise in monthly sales since November 2007. General Motors (GM, Fortune 500), Toyota Motor (TM), Chrysler Group and Honda Motor all said sales fell versus a year ago, but rose versus June levels, thanks to Cash for Clunkers. The popular program gives consumers a rebate check for as much as $4,500 if they trade in their gas guzzlers and buy a fuel-efficient vehicle. But the program could run out of cash by mid-week if the Senate doesn't approve the additional $2 billion in funding the House of Representatives approved last week. Quarterly results: With two-thirds of the S&P 500 having reported results, profits are on track to have fallen 29.5% from a year ago, according to the latest Thomson Reuters numbers. However, that's an improvement from a month ago, when profits were expected to fall more than 35%. Profit reports have been topping expectations across the board, with roughly 74% of companies exceeding forecasts, versus the long-term average of 61% of companies. Should the figure hold up through the end of the reporting period, it would be the highest percentage of companies topping estimates in the 15 years Thomson Reuters has been tracking results. On Monday, Humana (HUM, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly earnings that topped estimates. Shares of the health insurance provider rose 2.8%. Marathon Oil (MRO, Fortune 500) reported weaker quarterly earnings on lower oil prices. Nonetheless, results topped estimates. Shares gained 1.2%. Other company news: Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) CEO Eric Schmidt has resigned from the Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) board, as the Internet search leader is developing more and more products that compete with Apple's core businesses. Google gained 2%, while Apple gained 1.9%. Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) has agreed to pay $33 million to settle charges that it mislead investors about Merrill Lynch's plans to pay bonuses to its executives. Bank of America completed its purchase of Merrill Lynch on Jan. 1. Separately, BofA said Sallie Krawcheck, Citigroup's former head of global wealth management, will run BofA's global wealth and investment management operations. Oil and gold: Commodity prices rallied as investors bet that a global recovery will boost demand for raw materials. U.S. light crude oil for September delivery rose $2.13 to settle at $71.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. COMEX gold for December delivery rose $2.90 to settle at $958.70 an ounce. Bonds: Treasury prices tumbled as investors pulled money out of the safe-haven commodity. The slump raised the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.63% from 3.48% late Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions. Other markets: In global trading, European markets rallied after Barclays reported a rise in quarterly profit and HSBC reported a drop in profit that wasn't as steep as analysts had expected. Asian markets ended higher. In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and rose against the Japanese yen. Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers four to one on volume of 1.21 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by two to one on volume of 2.19 billion shares. |
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richtan
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03-Aug-2009 22:55
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U.S. Stocks Rise, S&P 500 Tops 1,000 for First Time Since Nov. By Matt Townsend Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index above 1,000 for the first time since November, on growing speculation the recession may be ending and an unexpected profit at Europe’s biggest bank. Oil and metals advanced, while Treasuries fell. Equities extended gains as reports on manufacturing and construction spending topped forecasts. Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. rallied after HSBC Holdings Plc reported first-half net income of $3.35 billion as earnings from its securities unit doubled. Ford Motor Co. jumped 8.8 percent after a government incentive program helped it achieve its first monthly U.S. sales increase since 2007. The S&P 500 added 1.4 percent to 1,001.55 at 10:32 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 113.97 points, or 1.2 percent, to 9,285.58 and the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 1.1 percent to 2,000.42. “Earnings in some sectors have been rebounding nicely,” said Eric Teal, who oversees $5 billion as chief investment officer at First Citizens Bank in Raleigh, North Carolina. “What we need are some confirming economic data to indicate the recovery is sustainable and is on a path toward growth in the third and fourth quarters.” The S&P 500 topped 1,000 for the first time in nine months after better-than-expected profits helped restore $3.7 trillion to U.S. stock markets since March. Office Depot Inc., Genworth Financial Inc. and Fifth Third Bancorp. rallied sevenfold or more since the benchmark index for American equities fell to a 12-year low of 676.53 on March 9. They were among 16 companies that lost more than 90 percent after the gauge last closed above 1,000 on Nov. 4. Flirting With 1,000 The S&P 500 remains 36 percent below its all-time high of 1,565.15 on Oct. 9, 2007. Before November, the index traded above 1,000 for five years. Profits that surpassed analysts’ estimates at a record percentage of S&P 500 companies helped push the index to its fifth consecutive monthly gain in July. The index has risen 48 percent since March 9, its steepest advance since the 1930s, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in an interview yesterday on ABC’s “This Week” program that U.S. economic growth may resume at a rate faster than most economists forecast. “We may very well have 2.5 percent in the current quarter,” Greenspan said in the interview. “The reason is there has been such an extraordinarily high rate of inventory liquidation that the production levels are well under consumption.” Banks Gain Bank of America, the largest U.S. lender, gained 3.4 percent to $15.29. New York-based Citigroup rallied 1.9 percent to $3.23. Barclays Plc joined HSBC in rallying in London after reporting earnings. Barclays jumped to a 10-month high after saying earnings at its investment bank increased to 1.05 billion pounds ($1.8 billion), helped by the thaw in credit markets since its September purchase of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s North American unit. Ford gained 8.8 percent to $8.70 after saying it will have its first monthly U.S. sales increase since 2007 as the government’s “cash-for-clunkers” incentives boosted industrywide deliveries of new vehicles to the highest levels of this year. To contact the reporter on this story: Matt Townsend in New York at mtownsend9@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: August 3, 2009 10:34 EDT |
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