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richtan
Supreme |
16-Jul-2009 00:58
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U.S. Stocks Rally on Intel Forecast, Manufacturing Improvement By Whitney Kisling July 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, extending a global rally, after Intel Corp. forecast sales that beat analysts’ estimates and New York manufacturing shrank at the slowest pace in more than a year. Treasuries fell for a third day and the dollar and yen also dropped. Intel rallied 7.3 percent, the most since March, after saying computer makers are boosting chip orders in anticipation of increased demand in the second half. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Alcoa Inc. climbed as crude and metal prices increased. General Electric Corp. and Caterpillar Inc. led industrial shares higher as the Federal Reserve’s New York economic index spurred optimism the worst of the manufacturing slump is over. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 2.3 percent to 926.04 at 12:27 p.m. in New York, extending its biggest three-day advance in six weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 184.78 points, or 2.2 percent, to 8,544.27. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations surged 2.5 percent. “It looks like we want to trend higher in this earning season,” said Peter Kenny, managing director in institutional sales at Knight Equity Markets in Jersey City, New Jersey. “The fact that Intel and Goldman Sachs, two enormous players globally, have positive numbers and positive surprises does give the market some buoyancy.” The S&P 500 has risen 5.3 percent so far this week as better-than-estimated retail sales boosted consumer shares and companies from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Johnson & Johnson reported earnings that beat analysts’ estimates. Rebound From March Low The benchmark index for U.S. equities has rallied 37 percent from its 12-year low on March 9 amid speculation the economic contraction is slowing. It rose above its average price over the past 50 sessions today for the first time in eight trading days. Earnings have topped estimates by an average 20 percent for the 16 companies in the S&P 500 that have released second- quarter results since July 8, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Analysts estimate profits slumped an average 35 percent in the period and will decrease 21 percent from July through September, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Intel climbed 7.3 percent to $18.05, the highest level since October. The chipmaker forecast third-quarter revenue will reach as much as $8.9 billion. Analysts projected $7.86 billion, based on the average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Microsoft Corp., the world’s largest software maker, jumped 2.9 percent to $23.78. Tech Rally Advanced Micro Devices Inc., the second-largest maker of personal-computer processors, advanced 9.5 percent to $3.89, climbing the most since May 4. Cisco Systems Inc. rallied 4.1 percent to $19.50. The largest maker of networking equipment was given a “buy” recommendation in new coverage at Citigroup Inc., which said “we expect the shares to outperform in the early stages of an economic recovery.” Exxon gained 1.8 percent to $67.39. Crude oil rose for the first time in four days after a report showed a bigger-than- forecast contraction in U.S. inventories contracted. Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum producer, gained 4.3 percent to $10. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world’s biggest publicly traded copper producer, increased 4.4 percent to $50.32. A gauge of industrial shares added 2.7 percent after the Fed Bank of New York’s July general economic index climbed to minus 0.6, the highest level since April 2008, from minus 9.4 the prior month. Economists in a Bloomberg survey had estimated a reading of minus 5. Readings below zero for the Empire State index signal manufacturing activity is contracting. Financials Advance S&P 500 financial shares gained 3.2 percent collectively for the second-steepest advance among 10 industries following technology. American Express Co. added 6.1 percent to $25.96. The shares have almost tripled since hitting a 14-year low on March 6, the session before the S&P 500 slid to a 12-year low. At 2:00 p.m., the Fed will release minutes of its June meeting, which will include policy makers’ most recent forecasts for growth, inflation and unemployment, plus their discussion of monetary policy. Investor sentiment for U.S. stocks fell to the lowest level since March and confidence in equities around the world declined as prospects for the global economy worsened in June, according to a survey of Bloomberg users. Confidence Slips The Bloomberg Professional Confidence Survey’s measure for the S&P 500 dropped 14 percent to 39.59 in July, its second consecutive drop. Readings below 50 show participants expect equity prices will decrease in the next six months. The rebound in the S&P 500 since March 9 shows few hallmarks of a bull market and stocks will probably stagnate for years, ISI Group Inc.’s Jeffrey deGraaf said. The S&P 500 is at a level it first surpassed in 1997 even after the steepest quarterly advance in a decade, and is down 43 percent from its October 2007 record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The main benchmark for American equities probably will continue to make “no net price progress” for at least two more years, deGraaf, who was the top-ranked technical analyst in Institutional Investor magazine’s poll for the past four years, said in an interview. Janus Capital Group Inc. slid the most in the S&P 500, losing 6.1 percent to $10.49, after Gary Black resigned as chief executive officer. He spent more than three years trying to rebuild the mutual-fund company and cut the pay and influence of individual investment managers before his resignation. To contact the reporter on this story: Whitney Kisling in New York at wkisling@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: July 15, 2009 12:30 EDT |
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smartrader
Elite |
15-Jul-2009 20:03
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All stocks will like what Richtan had said " form a higher high n higher low or re-test tat line as a support" . So if you ride the wave, remember to buy back for stock you believe in long term prospects. |
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petertan4949
Senior |
15-Jul-2009 19:17
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2588!!!! Why not??? If US just growth 0.5% to 1% ,then good day ahead for all. |
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Hulumas
Supreme |
15-Jul-2009 19:13
Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!" |
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Congratulations........ Next target STI 2588 will be easily reached. | |||||||||||||||
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richtan
Supreme |
15-Jul-2009 16:28
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STI had obviously broke above the upper sloping resistance line at 2322, now at high of 2370 as at time of this posting, confirm the H&S void n confirm the bullish contracting triangle continuation pattern. Most unlikely to be a fake breakout, but of course, void if it later falls back below tat resistance line. For it to go higher, on breakout, it must subsequently either form a higher high n higher low or re-test tat line as a support.
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richtan
Supreme |
15-Jul-2009 14:57
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Ooops, the missing chart: |
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richtan
Supreme |
15-Jul-2009 14:54
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Shrinking Trade Deficit: A Bullish Sign for Stocks? If you answered "yes," keep reading.
The economic fundamentals in the United States are showing signs of life. One of the latest such indicators is the shrinking U.S. trade deficit. Last week's number came in below expectations, which many se as a good sign:
July 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in May to the lowest level in almost a decade... “Trade looks like it’s going to be a big plus for second quarter GDP,” said ... a senior economist at UBS Securities... “It looks like the plunge in exports is over, which is of course consistent with the goal of the economy starting to stabilize after a dramatic collapse.”
That news article didn't claim that the smaller trade gap would boost the U.S. GDP number and therefore be bullish for the stock market. But it's not a stretch that many (if not most) analysts and investors see it that way. Really, how can better "fundamentals" not be good for stocks?
If you are familiar with the Elliott Wave Principle and the writings of EWI's founder and president Robert Prechter, you already know that looking at "fundamentals" to gauge the stock market's direction is like trying to drive a car while looking through the rear-view mirror. "Fundamentals" lag the stock market, not lead it.
Consider, for example, what Bob Prechter writes about trade gap as an economic indicator in chapter 19 of his "Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior" (excerpt; italics added):
In 1988, investors became “fixated” and “riveted,” according to The Wall Street Journal, upon the monthly reported U.S. balance of trade with foreign nations. As with the other figures... is derived from outside the market. It has an apparently logical explanation: trade deficits (a negative value of U.S. exports minus imports) are bad for our country’s “balance of payments,” so they are bad for the country, so they are bad for stocks. There is only one problem: The facts are once again in direct opposition to the assumption.
Figure 19-3 reveals that in fact the trade gap has followed the rises and falls of the U.S. stock market and economy very closely, but in precisely the opposite way that economists assume. The bigger has been the deficit, the stronger have been the stock market and the economy, and vice versa. Despite countless reports that “the trade deficit is slowing economic growth,” statistics reveal the opposite experience for decades.
Bob Prechter updated that trade deficit chart for the February 2005 issue of his monthly Elliott Wave Theorist:
As demonstrated in "The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior," economists have been on the wrong side of the trade balance figures for 30 years. The trade deficit has expanded all the while that stocks have risen.
This is a fact. What economists have on their side is lots of logic. When do facts contradict logic? When one’s premises are wrong. The premise that an expanding trade deficit is bad for the economy has been wrong for at least a third of a century. When the trade deficit begins shrinking again, economists will assign it a bullish value when in fact this time it will go hand in hand with the onset of a depression.
A good chart can do wonders for your understanding of the financial markets. Elliott wave analysis is a visual method, and if you liked this chart, you should see the others we have.
Seriously, you should. Right now -- and risk-free for 30 days -- you can see all the charts Bob Prechter and his colleagues present in the latest issues of EWI's Financial Forecast Service, our most popular subscription package. Get started here, risk-free.
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richtan
Supreme |
15-Jul-2009 10:18
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Asian Stocks Rise on U.S. Earnings, Metal Prices; Samsung Gains By Jonathan Burgos July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose for a second day after Intel Corp.’s sales forecast exceeded analyst projections, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported record earnings and metal prices climbed. Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s second-largest maker of semiconductors after Intel, jumped 3.8 percent in Seoul on optimism demand for personal computers is recovering. Advantest Corp., the world’s biggest maker of memory-chip testers, added 1.5 percent in Tokyo. Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, rose 1.6 percent. PetroChina Co., China’s largest oil producer, may be active when Hong Kong trading opens after its parent said the company’s refining profit climbed. “Confidence in the market is returning as economic data have been showing signs of stability and earnings have been positive as well,” said Chris Hall, who helps manage $2.4 billion at Argo Investments Ltd. in Adelaide. “The recovery is still fragile. We’re still waiting for signs that U.S. consumption is recovering.” The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4 percent to 100.92 in Tokyo at 10:32 a.m. in Tokyo, adding to yesterday’s 2.5 percent gain. The gauge has rallied 43 percent from a five-year low on March 9 on optimism government stimulus policies will revive the global economy. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.2 percent. South Korea’s Kospi Index climbed 2 percent, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 0.8 percent. The U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.9 percent yesterday as a government report showed retail sales advanced 0.6 percent last month from May, exceeding the 0.4 percent gain projected by economists. Goldman Sachs also reported a 65 percent jump in quarterly net income as revenue from trading and stock underwriting reached record highs. Intel Sales Futures on the S&P 500 climbed 0.9 percent after Intel, the world’s largest chipmaker, forecast sales will reach as much as $8.9 billion in the current quarter, surpassing the $7.86 billion estimated by analysts. The report came after U.S. markets closed. Technology shares were the second-biggest boost to the MSCI Asia Pacific Index today. Samsung climbed 3.8 percent to 658,000 won, while Advantest gained 1.5 percent to 1,741 yen. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest maker of customized chips, added 1.5 percent to NT$53.30. Intel’s forecasts and Goldman’s profit “indicate company earnings here won’t be as bad as some fear,” said Hiroichi Nishi, an equities manager at Tokyo-based Nikko Cordial Securities Inc. Metal Prices Rio gained 1.6 percent to A$49.86 after a gauge of six metals in London gained 3.4 percent, while copper futures added 3.4 percent in New York. Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. added 1.9 percent to A$3.67. Rio also said it’s continuing to sell iron ore on the spot market to Chinese customers, denying a report in the Financial Times. PetroChina’s American depositary receipts rose 1.7 percent yesterday. The company’s refining profit climbed to a record in the first half, parent company China National Petroleum Corp. said in a statement in Beijing today. To contact the reporter for this story: Jonathan Burgos in Singapore at jburgos4@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: July 14, 2009 21:33 EDT |
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el7888
Veteran |
15-Jul-2009 08:17
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WASHINGTON - PRESIDENT Barack Obama said on Tuesday he expects the US unemployment rate, currently at 9.5 per cent, to rise further over the coming months. The US president noted that 'we have seen some stabilisation on the financial markets, and that's good,' but said that history showed recoveries can take more time. 'Historically, even after you start into a recovery, positive growth, hiring, typically lags for some time after that,' he said. Unemployment rose to 9.5 per cent in June, according to Labor Department figures, shedding 467,000 jobs in that month. That figure was 45 per cent up on the previous month's losses, and pushed the level to a 26-year high. The figures dashed hopes of a rapid exit from the recession currently afflicting the world's largest economy. Mr Obama said in June that he thought unemployment would reach 10 per cent this year. The president later traveled to the state of Michigan - home to auto giants General Motors and Chrysler, both of which filed for bankruptcy and rely on government assistance to survive - where he unveiled an initiative aimed at increasing the number of college graduates as a way to help strengthen the economy. According to the White House, community colleges, which serve some six million students, represent the highest number of students in higher learning in the United States. -- AFP |
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Blastoff
Elite |
15-Jul-2009 07:06
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Stocks push higherWall Street musters gains as investors welcome a better-than-expected corporate report from Goldman Sachs, but advance is limited.NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks gained Tuesday after a choppy session in which investors welcomed Goldman Sachs' better-than-expected results but showed caution ahead of all the quarterly reports due in the weeks ahead.
After the close, Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) reported earnings and revenue that fell from a year ago but topped estimates. The chipmaker also said that third-quarter revenue will top expectations. Shares popped 7% in after-hours trading. The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 28 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index added 5 points, or 0.5%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) edged up 6 points, or 0.4%. Stocks rallied Monday after influential banking analyst Meredith Whitney said she was raising her view on Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500). On Tuesday, Goldman reported a bigger-than-expected quarterly profit, setting the stage for a week of reports from the financial sector. However, Goldman's report failed to do much for markets Tuesday. "Yesterday marked a big turnaround in sentiment regarding the financials and the stocks rallied," said Kenny Landgraf, founder and principal at Kenjol Capital Management. "So today you're seeing less of a reaction." JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) reports Thursday and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) report Friday. The sector as a whole is expected to see profits fall more than 50% versus a year ago, according to Thomson Reuters. S&P 500 earnings are expected to have declined around 36% in the quarter, versus a year ago. However, what the corporations say about the second half of the year and the economic outlook will be critical. After rallying 40% in three months, stocks have drifted lower over the last month. The second-quarter reporting period could provide the next catalyst for a move in either direction. "Caution about earnings was reflected by the pullback over the last few weeks," said Gary Flam, portfolio manager at Bel Air Investment Advisors. "But as we move through earnings season and the results are for the most part in line or better than expected, investors will move back into stocks." He said that toward the end of the third quarter, stocks are likely to see another decline, but ultimately finish the year 5% to 7% higher than where they are now. Economic news will be in focus Wednesday. Reports are due in the morning on consumer inflation, manufacturing, oil inventories and industrial production and capacity utilization. In the afternoon, the minutes from the last Federal Reserve policy meeting are due. Goldman Sachs: The financial leader said it earned $3.44 billion, or $4.93 per share, in the second quarter versus $2.1 billion, or $4.58 per share, a year ago. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected net income of $1.73 billion or $3.54 a share. Goldman, considered to be the healthiest of Wall Street banks during the downturn, benefited from strength in its fixed-income and trading businesses. In other financial sector news, small-business lender CIT Group (CIT, Fortune 500) rallied Tuesday on bets that the strapped company will get government help. Other company news: Dow component Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500) reported second-quarter earnings of $1.15 per share versus $1.18 a year ago. Analysts were expecting $1.11 per share, on average. J&J shares inched higher. Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) shares slipped 8% after the company said late Monday that it expects to see a small decline in gross margins, a key measure of profitability. Dell also said it expects to report a slight increase in revenue when its second quarter ends at the end of July. Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers seven to three on volume of 980 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners five to four on volume of 1.89 billion shares. Economy: Higher gas prices and increases in auto purchases and auto prices boosted June retail sales and wholesale inflation, the government reported. June retail sales rose 0.6%. the Commerce Department reported. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought sales would rise 0.4%. Sales rose 0.5% in the previous month. Sales excluding autos rose 0.3%, short of forecasts for a rise of 0.5%. Sales rose 0.5% in May. The producer price index (PPI), a measure of wholesale inflation, jumped 1.8% in June versus forecasts for a rise of 1%. Higher gas prices played a big role in the rise. PPI rose 0.2% in the previous month. The so-called core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.5% after falling 0.1% in May. Economists thought it would rise 0.1%. Bonds: Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.46% from 3.35% Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions. Other markets: In global trade, Asian and European markets ended higher. In currency trading, the dollar gained against the euro and the Japanese yen. U.S. light crude oil for August delivery fell 17 cents to settle at $59.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. COMEX gold for August delivery rose 30 cents to settle at $922.80 an ounce. |
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Hulumas
Supreme |
14-Jul-2009 16:59
Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!" |
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In the large extent, you are right.
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iPunter
Supreme |
14-Jul-2009 16:24
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While you watch, it will do either of two things... go up... or go down... So don't praise yourself when you are lucky... hehehe... |
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des_khor
Supreme |
14-Jul-2009 15:29
Yells: "Tell me who is the God or MFT from this forum??" |
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Watch only ! don't do anything ! | |||||||||||||||
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maxcty
Master |
14-Jul-2009 15:27
Yells: "always a learning day for me in trading" |
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something bad coming??
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ronleech
Master |
14-Jul-2009 14:41
Yells: "Believe in yourself. Ride with the waves......" |
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Watch out for property counter ...... | |||||||||||||||
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smartrader
Elite |
14-Jul-2009 14:36
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There is a way out for US if they cease to be "protectionist" .... | |||||||||||||||
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richtan
Supreme |
14-Jul-2009 14:28
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I dun think US is anymore a mkt leader as it is a debtor country, dun depend on them for consumer spending. The leader now is China as they are now the world's richest country, in time to come, mkt trader will look to SSE for direction instead of DOW.
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smartrader
Elite |
14-Jul-2009 14:19
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Thanks. My gut feel is that we will see ST1 go beyond 2400 soon ..then i will see what you meant by the higher high and high low .
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smartrader
Elite |
14-Jul-2009 14:16
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yeah..but no harm learning more about TA... when the STI corrected and start to move up again, it is good sign -- meaning people are willing to pay more for the same stock . The price of every counter will move up if STI break new high each time...
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iPunter
Supreme |
14-Jul-2009 12:59
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