"Recessions are a great time to figure out who is winning and who is losing," said Kim Caughey, senior equity analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Partners.

"Overall, it's been a terrible quarter. That's no surprise," she said. "But seeing who is holding it together is important to investors."

Alcoa, as is typical, marked the symbolic start of the quarterly reporting period last week. But a wider range of marquee names trickle in this week as the reporting period starts to pick up a little speed.

Five Dow components are due: financial firms Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), tech leader Intel (INTC, Fortune 500), conglomerate General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) and consumer products maker Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500). Other non-Dow companies due to report include Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) and Nokia (NOK).

Reports are also due this week on housing, manufacturing, retail sales and consumer sentiment. But with analysts unsure that investors have fully accounted for the poor quarterly results about to roll in, earnings will be critical.

Big losses ahead: S&P 500 profits are expected to have fallen 38% in the first quarter versus a year ago, according to the latest from Thomson Reuters. Another down quarter would bring the losing streak to seven in a row, Wall Street's worst run since Thomson began tracking results in 1998.

Another dubious milestone: All ten economic sectors that S&P 500 tracks are expected to post year-over-year losses, a first in Thomson's history.

"The trend we are seeing that started in the fourth quarter of '08 is that the weakness has spread to every sector of the economy," said John Butters, senior research analyst at Thomson Reuters.

He said that in the fourth quarter of 2007, in which the recession officially began, only financials and consumer discretionary - which includes Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) and General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) - posted losses. Those losses were substantial enough to drag down the overall S&P earnings and mask an otherwise mixed earnings reporting period.

But in the quarters since then, the weakness has spread to all industries.

In the first quarter, consumer discretionary is expected to post losses of more than 100% versus a year ago, due largely to the automakers and the retailers. Surprisingly, homebuilders, part of the sector, are expected to post quarterly earnings gains versus a year ago. However, that's largely because results a year ago were so abysmal that comparisons are easy.

After consumer discretionary, basic materials is expected to post losses of more than 80% versus a year ago, with weakness in chemicals, steel and mining a reflection of the slower global economy. Energy is on track to post the third-biggest year-over-year profit decline, of 56%.

Financials are expected to see profits fall by 46% versus a year ago, although once Wells Fargo's better-than-expected forecast from Friday is factored in, the number should drop down to just below 40%.

The sector expected to show the smallest drop in profits is healthcare, with forecasts for a drop of 3% versus a year ago.

The breadth of the earnings weakness is a trend expected to continue for at least another quarter, Butters said. Currently, Thomson expects second-quarter profits to have fallen 32% from a year ago.

With the economic outlook still murky, forward-looking projections are expected to be few and far between.

"Guidance is usually the key, but unfortunately managements don't know any more about the economy than anyone else does," said Timothy Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management. "A lot of companies say they won't give guidance in this environment."

Rally finding legs: Stocks have risen for five weeks straight since the Dow and S&P 500 hit more than 12-year lows. In that time, the Dow rose 22%, its best five-week run since May of 1933 when it gained 31%.

Although the initial spurt was driven mostly by traders, hedge funds and other market pros, the recent leg has seen more individual investors jumping back in.

Investors have poured money back into equity mutual funds over the last two weeks. In the week ended Wed. April 8, investors put $11.9 billion into stock mutual funds after adding $3 billion in the previous week.

Tuesday: Goldman Sachs, considered to be one of the healthier banks, is due to report results before the start of trading. The financial behemoth is expected to have earned $1.60 after earning $3.23 a year ago.

On Friday, reports surfaced that Goldman is likely to announce as soon as next week a multi-billion offering of its shares to investors, as part of a plan to repay a $10 billion government loan.

Johnson & Johnson also reports results before the start of trading. The Dow component is expected to have earned $1.22 per share versus $1.26 a year ago, according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

After the close of trading, tech leader Intel is expected to report earnings of 2 cents per share versus 29 cents a year ago.

Thursday: JPMorgan Chase, reporting before the opening bell, is expected to have earned 32 cents per share after earning 68 cents a year ago.

Nokia also reports results in the morning. The telecom is expected to have earned 15 cents per share versus 38 cents a year ago.

Google reports after the close. The Internet behemoth is expected to have earned $4.95 per share after earning $4.98 per share a year ago.

Friday: Citigroup reports results in the morning. The Dow component is expected to have lost 37 cents per share after losing $1.02 a year ago.

Dow component General Electric also reports results in the morning. GE is expected to have earned 21 cents per share versus 44 cents a year ago.

Tuesday: Standouts on a busy day for economic news include a report on wholesale inflation from the Labor Department and one on retail sales from the Commerce Department.

The Producer Price index (PPI), a measure of inflation at the wholesale level, is expected to hold steady in March after rising 0.1% in February, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. So-called "core" PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to have risen 0.1% after growing 0.2% in February.

Retail sales are expected to have risen 0.3% in March after falling 0.1% in February, economists are estimating. Retail sales excluding autos are expected to have edged up 0.1% after rising 0.7% in February.

A report is also due in the morning on February business inventories, but it is not typically a market mover.

At 1:30 p.m. ET, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at Morehouse College in Atlanta about the financial crisis.

Wednesday: The Consumer Price index (CPI) is due before the start of trading. CPI is expected to have risen 0.2% in march after jumping 0.4% in February.

March industrial production, from the Federal Reserve, is expected to have fallen by 0.9% after dropping by 1.4% in February. Capacity utilization, a measure of factory output, is expected to have fallen to 69.7% from 70.9% in February.

The NY Empire State index, a regional read on manufacturing, is due shortly after the start of trading. The index is expected to have improved modestly to negative 35 in April from negative 38.2 in March.

The government's weekly energy supplies report is due in the morning. The Fed releases its "beige book" semi-annual reading on the economy in the afternoon. Wednesday is also the deadline for income tax returns.

Thursday: March housing sector reports from the Census Bureau are the highlight of another busy day of economic news.

March housing starts are expected to have fallen to a 550,000 unit annual rate from a 583,000 unit annual rate in February. Building permits, a measure of builder confidence, are expected to have risen to a 550,000 annual unit rate, economists expect, from a 447,000 unit rate in February.

The Philadelphia Fed index, a regional read on manufacturing, is expected to have improved modestly to negative 32 in April from negative 35 in March.

The weekly jobless claims report is also due in the morning. Last week, claims stood at 654,000, while continuing claims hit an all-time high of 5.84 million.

Friday: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected to have risen to 58.5 in April from 57.3 in March

 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Wednesday at the end of a choppy session as a housing sector merger and more optimism about the recovery overshadowed sinking bank shares and the Fed's dour economic forecast.

Investors seemed to take in stride Alcoa's glum start to what is expected to be a dismal quarterly results reporting period.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 47 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index rose 9 points, or 1.2%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 29 points, or 1.9%.

Stocks slipped Monday and Tuesday following a four-week advance that sent the Dow and S&P 500 spiking more than 20% off 12-year lows. But after the brief retreat, investors managed to restart the advance Wednesday.

The market likely bottomed on March 9, said Timothy Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management. Yet, the next six months are bound to be choppy as investors try to factor in an eventual recovery.

"The selloff in February into early March was driven by speculation about the most dire outcomes for our economic systems," Ghriskey said. "That level of panic usually signals a bottom."

"We've recovered very quickly over the last month from that correction and we're on pretty solid footing here," he said. "But we're likely to remain in a holding pattern until we have more clarity on the recovery."

Stocks briefly cut gains after the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve policy meeting last month, when central bank policymakers opted to keep interest rates at levels near zero.

The bankers forecast a delay in the economic recovery until 2010, instead of the second half of this year. The bankers also thought the unemployment rate would rise more steeply into 2010.

Thursday preview: March sales from the nation's retailers are due through the morning. Sales improved in February after four straight months of declines, but investors will be looking to see if the consumer is continuing to hang in despite the recession.

The government releases the February trade balance and the weekly jobless claims report before the start of trading, along with the March report on import and export prices.

Thursday is also Passover, although many celebrations begin the night before. Financial markets are open Thursday, but trading volume is expected to be light ahead of Good Friday, when all markets are closed.

Homebuilders: Pulte Homes (PHM, Fortune 500) is buying Centex (CTX, Fortune 500) in a $3.1 billion deal - including debt - that creates the nation's largest homebuilder. The deal gave a boost to a number of other companies in the sector, including Lennar (LEN, Fortune 500) and Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV, Fortune 500).

Insurers: The sector got a lift from a published report that said Treasury will let certain insurers receive aid from its Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Gainers included Hartford Financial (HIG, Fortune 500), Genworth Financial (GNW, Fortune 500) and Lincoln National (LNC, Fortune 500).

Earnings: Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) reported a first-quarter loss of 59 cents per share after the close Tuesday, wider than the loss of 56 cents per share analysts were expecting. The aluminum maker earned 44 cents a year earlier.

Revenue fell to $4.1 billion from $7.375 billion a year ago, versus forecasts for a bigger drop to $4.08 billion. Alcoa is typically the first Dow component and major company to report results each quarter. Shares gained 3.5% Wednesday.

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY, Fortune 500) reported weaker quarterly earnings that beat forecasts on lower revenue that met estimates. Shares jumped over 24%.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers by almost three to one on volume of 1.32 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by over two to one on volume of 1.86 billion shares.

Short-selling rules: The advance was set back following reports that regulators are recommending restrictions on all short-selling, not just on financial shares, as had previously been thought.

The stock market got a boost last month on talk that the Securities and Exchange Commission would reinstate the uptick rule - that limits short-selling - on financial shares. Critics have said the absence of the rule has exacerbated the selloff in bank stocks.

Economic news: February wholesale inventories fell 1.5% versus forecasts for a drop of 0.7%. Inventories fell 0.7% in the previous month.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.88% from 2.91% Tuesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets ended lower and European markets finished mixed.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for May delivery settled up 23 cents at $49.38 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices slipped in the morning, but turned around after the government's weekly energy report showed crude supplies increased less than expected.

COMEX gold for June delivery rose $3.40 to settle at $885.90 an ounce. 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks fell Tuesday, retreating for a second straight session after a four-week advance, on worries about banks and autos and the start of the quarterly reporting period.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 186 points, or 2.3%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index dipped 20 points, or 2.4%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) fell 45 points, or 2.8%.

After the close, Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) reported a first-quarter loss of 59 cents per share, wider than the 56 cents per share loss analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters were expecting. The aluminum maker earned 44 cents a year earlier.

Revenue fell to $4.1 billion from $7.375 billion a year ago, versus forecasts for a steeper drop to $4.077 billion. Alcoa is typically the first Dow component and major company to report results. Shares fell 3% in extended-hours trading after rising just after the release of the report.

Alcoa is just the start of what is going to be a poor earnings reporting period, with results set to slump at least 35% versus a year ago, said Ram Kolluri, director and chief investment officer at ICICI Group Global Private Clients.

Stocks have been retreating this week in the aftermath of a swift rally that propelled the major gauges more than 20% off multi-year lows.

"We had this rally on optimism that the banking system is stabilizing, but the advance was somewhat premature," Kolluri said. "Now the reality of the earnings is going to hit us."

Tuesday's market: General Motors is preparing for the possibility of filing for bankruptcy, if it can't meet the government's reorganizing deadline of June 1, according to a source familiar with the company's plans. The news dragged on investor sentiment and sent GM (GM, Fortune 500) shares down by 12%. Healthier rival Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) lost 7.5%.

Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) and other oil services stocks slipped along with the price of oil, which closed below $50 a barrel.

Meanwhile, a number of bank stocks weakened for a second straight session. The KBW Bank (BKX) index lost 3.5%.

Beyond the corporate news, stocks were vulnerable to a pull back anyway, following a big four-week rally that saw all three major gauges jump at least 20%.

Since bottoming at a 12-year low on March 9, the Dow has rallied 21%, its best four-week run since 1933, when it added 31%. The advance was driven in part by optimism that the economy and financial sector are close to stabilizing.

But after such a run, a turnaround was fairly typical, said Tom Schrader, managing director at Stifel Nicolaus. He said stocks could even go back to "retest" those March lows, before making a bigger move higher.

"I think the lows will hold this time," he said, noting that the outlook was a lot more grim in the fall during previous attempts at finding a floor.

"The doomsday scenario has gone by the wayside," he said. "There's still a long way to go, in terms of the economy, the housing market, the banks, but there's definitely more optimism in the market than in those previous attempts."

On Monday, a breakdown in merger talks between IBM and Sun Microsystems weighed on techs. Bank shares were bludgeoned after an influential analyst said the default rate on loans will approach the percentages seen during the Great Depression.

GM prepares for bankruptcy: As GM struggles to meet the government's June 1 restructuring deadline, it is also preparing for bankruptcy, a source told CNNMoney.com.

The company is still trying to get concessions from its unions and creditors ahead of the Obama administration deadline, but it is also in "intense and earnest" preparations for a possible filing, the source said.

GM and privately-held Chrysler have both received billions in government aid. (Full story)

Separately, GM said that it has paired with Segway to create a two-wheeled, two-seat, electrically powered vehicle for city navigation. Project P.U.M.A. - Personal Urban Mobility and Accessibility - was unveiled Tuesday in New York.

Economic news: Borrowing costs slipped, following a one-month advance, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday. Consumer credit fell 3.5% in February after rising 1.8% in January. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would fall 1.5%.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.75% from 2.87% Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Lending rates were little changed. The 3-month Libor rate fell to 1.15% from 1.16% Monday, according to Bloomberg.com. The overnight Libor rate inched higher to 0.28% from 0.27% Monday. Libor is a bank-to-bank lending rate.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian and European markets tumbled.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for May delivery fell $1.90 to settle at $49.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for June delivery rose $10.50 to settle at $883.30 an ounce.