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STI going down to hit below 1300
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des_khor
Supreme |
06-Apr-2009 14:19
Yells: "Tell me who is the God or MFT from this forum??" |
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Just my view.... share share...
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richtan
Supreme |
06-Apr-2009 14:15
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Just as u said "might closed in red", so it also might closed in green after absorbing those profit-taking & taking a breather, army say "take 5" mah, very si peh chuan u know. So lets not be MFT & let the mkt tell us at the closed
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des_khor
Supreme |
06-Apr-2009 14:06
Yells: "Tell me who is the God or MFT from this forum??" |
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STI might closed in red as mood turn caution... | ||||
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gregorsamsa
Member |
06-Apr-2009 10:10
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STI crashing to 1300 now seems a very unlikely event. My cautious view is that the DOW/STI will go a level (9000/2000?) before it hovers around there. I think the money and volume coming into the markets are people/institutions slowly trickling in, after having stayed on the sidelines for very long. STI volume exceeding 1billion convincingly for the past 2 weeks, as compared to less than 1 billion the weeks before. If 2009 ends of worse than 2008, that will make it 3 years in a row. It has only happened during the Great Depression. And you can't compare now with the great depression, because governments have learned from it. |
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mario1
Member |
06-Apr-2009 00:38
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for me, i sold too early hence much smaller profits cos i din expect the rally to be so strong.. mkt is all abt sentiments, totally agreed, but it's not ez to anticipate how long the sentiment will last, will it con't to last, what triggers it, when will it subside.. currently i felt that the sentiments is still going strong..
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787180
Master |
05-Apr-2009 22:33
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Hi all, This is one of the news letter I subscribe to and it recently released a letter to all about a pertinent question that keeps coming up. I think this is a great article to share plus maybe give us all a little bit of fair headed perspective as to the current turmoil.. Is it still too risky to enter the market? “Lance, you are a big advocate of buying stocks now, even though it seems things are just getting worse, why?” A good question, that’s been asked in different ways, but the question remains the same, “Why am I talking people into investing now?” Here are my reasons. All recessions end, and this one will as well, but about 6 to 9 months before they do, the stock market moves up in anticipation. It happens every time. The matter is when this recession will end. The optimists, think late 2009, the pessimists think it may extend into 2010, making this the longest recession since the Great Depression. The reality lies somewhere in between. Let’s expect an end in the first quarter 2010, which is on the “gloomy side”. If that were the case, then stocks, based on history, could start moving up as early as June or as late as September 2009. So, this means you realistically will be able to buy stocks at around these prices for at least the months of March, April and May, maybe a little longer, After that, the stock market may move higher in anticipation of an end to the recession. Next, the various stimulus packages could have an effect in coming months and may increase the earnings outlook of various companies involved in the construction and infrastructure industries (which we are targeting among others). Based on history, and the Chinese experience, it takes 3 to 6 months before you start seeing some economic movement (a little sooner if it includes cash bonuses or tax cuts, as it does in Australia and the US). Again, this puts us seeing some “stimulus traction” in say, 3 to 6 months in around May to September. If that’s the case, the stock market will react in that time period, it always does. While we are still hearing about unemployment getting worse, and that the financial system is blocked up with bad loans and banks in the US still need more money, the market will sit exactly where it is, right? That’s true, however a survey just released (late February) from workforce consulting firm, Watson Wyatt Worldwide in the US concluded that more companies are resorting to pay and hiring freezes, rather than payroll reductions, to weather the recession. More than half, or 52% of the 245 companies surveyed, said they've already made job cuts. Job cuts were still being planned by 13% of respondents, but that’s down from 23% in December 2008. While all these surveys have a margin of error, it does show a trend that maybe the worst of the job losses may be over, or at worst, stabilised. Of course, there’s always an increase in risk to employment in regard to unexpected bankruptcies of companies, but at least there are signs of the trend bottoming. Companies like Caterpillar in the US are already talking of re-hiring sacked staff. As far as the US banking woes go, the Obama administration has implemented a system of stress testing of banks which will gauge the banks ability to safely operate in much worse conditions than they are currently facing. It will then let the government know which banks could be in trouble and what they need to do to fix their capital situation. This will conclude for all banks in the US by April. Now, once this is done, we will hear some good news and some bad news up until late April as regards the banks. After that, we’ll have a great deal of clarity as to what banks are good, and which ones are in strife. The market will react and buy up good banks and sell down banks that fail the “stress test”. The market overall will move strongly up on the basis of “now knowing”. The market does not like uncertainty. Once they have certainty, we may see a rally set off by US financials in late April or early May. By then Obama’s Housing Bailout Program should be arresting the foreclosure problem as it will have been in place for at least a month. This will start to add confidence to the average people on the street and give consumers just a little confidence to open their wallets. This should occur by May. Also, by May, we should have heard all the worst on the unemployment front, if we haven’t already. By this stage, the banks will have already passed their stress tests and have all the capital they need to start lending again, which will also help stressed homeowners renegotiate mortgages, the thing that started all this in 2006/7. So, to sum all this up, we may see the start of a stock market recovery as late as July 2009 or as early as April 2009. This gives you the opportunity to buy stocks at around these prices for at least another 2 months or possibly 5 months. Now, I could be wrong and the rally could start next week, or could start as late as August, but remember, when news is at it’s darkest and worst, that is the time to act. Yes, it’s also a time when you take the biggest risks, but reward, never comes without some risk. Consider this. Many stocks are down by around 55% from their highs in October 2007. In those days, many stocks had PE ratios of 15 to 20+, now they are much lower, around 6 to 10 and that’s after factoring in recent drops in earnings, which as you know always recover after a recession (for good companies anyway). Do you think these good companies (forget the bad ones, we don’t want invest in those) will ever get back to their former valuations of a PE of 15 to 20 with growing earnings and a new all time high for their share price (I’m only talking about the good companies here)? Of course you do, but it’s the time frame that’s the problem right? Well, let’s have a reality check and you’ll see why I’m always going on about buying stocks. Just say a company’s share price has fallen 55%, it will take a rise of 122% to get it back to it’s high, correct? If you bought it now, and it reached a new all time high in a year you’d make 122% on your money. But what if it took 2 years? You’d make 61%pa on your original purchase price. What if it took until 2012, 3 years from now? You’d pick up 41% each year. Amazingly good returns in anyone’s language. Even if you asked the question, “But what if it took until 2019, ten years away, to get back to a new high?” I would respond by saying, it doesn’t happen if you pick the right stock, but then you would have earned over 12%pa on your original investment. See my point, the rewards are there waiting. This opportunity, may not happen again in your life. The trouble is people can’t see past the current situation. They become “myopic”, they only see what’s right in front of them, not a little farther out. They are overcome with fear, and that’s what stops them doing anything in times like this, and it’s also the reason they will never do really well out of investing in stocks. Billionaires like Buffet and Soros are aggressively buying right now, will it be another case of looking back in years to comes and wondering, “What if……” Until Next time, Lance Spicer Editor, Trident Confidential 27 February 2009 | ||||
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787180
Master |
05-Apr-2009 22:29
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richtan
Supreme |
05-Apr-2009 22:26
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Tats why it is important not to be emotionally swayed by all this MFT but to learn & rely on your own TA & stop-loss . They are not answerable for your losses.
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Kensonic77
Veteran |
05-Apr-2009 21:50
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Honestly I got panic and sold all my capitaland shares @1.96. Total loss around 17K.
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Hulumas
Supreme |
05-Apr-2009 20:14
Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!" |
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Do you still think so? Please elaborate...
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Kensonic77
Veteran |
05-Apr-2009 19:36
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Anyone from SJ Forum after reading this post, got panic and sold their holding? Please feel free to share. Thanks. |
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bola_no1
Senior |
05-Apr-2009 18:14
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I think 1300 wont come le. Glad i picked up a few at 1600 +. | ||||
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Eagles
Member |
05-Apr-2009 01:20
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Fundamentals have shfited last week - Lots of Trillion Floating; G20 success; Obama accepted; Even George Soros felt optimisic (ie loading up)...... |
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Kensonic77
Veteran |
05-Apr-2009 00:46
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I have been waiting but it has not arrived yet. Would it going down to this level again?
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freeme
Elite |
03-Mar-2009 17:50
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after heavy fall on dow, mini rally is expected. whether can sustain anot, hard to say.. As long as it just consolidate at current point should be good news for all. | ||||
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callim22
Member |
03-Mar-2009 17:46
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Actually STI is very good today already. Although Dow close below 7000 for first time since May 1997, we didn't see STI drop so badly. In fact, it open at 1509.48 (-23.92 from prev close) and close at 1528.81 (-4.89 from prev close), it is a day of good gain already. Depending on how we see it, it may drop again or start to rally. The analyst can say for all there want but they are just predicting. It all depends on what markets wants to do and it is not definite. Different people react to news differently. I guesses we can expect some rebound to happen soon but we need to be caution of any possible downside slide. ;) |
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rabbitfoot
Veteran |
03-Mar-2009 16:53
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Dow very oversold. Tonight big, big rebound....STI turning around now.. | ||||
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
03-Mar-2009 16:47
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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Ha ha, still early before close. But the crecial time would be during pre-close 6 mins trading. That 6 mins can twist d Index. AK guess if Index during close is loss at a smaller margin, then d 6 mins boost may turn d final answer in light green liao. Hope 4 d best .
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Blastoff
Elite |
03-Mar-2009 16:44
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Maybe tomorrow....
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tanglinboy
Elite |
03-Mar-2009 16:34
Yells: "hello!" |
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I thought today will correct upwards a little but still fell even lower. SIGH |
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