CHHX turn to cheongggggg ahhhh!!!!!.

Every dog has its day, every cloud has its silver lining.

I happen to agree with u on the reliability of analysts. A recent article on either Forbes or CMBC contended that over a protracted length of 30 years, analysts got 70% of their recommendations wrong. In this case, the analyst Pauline raised a few pertinent points.I personally see more downside potential than upside. Let me explain.

Downside

The money IS there in the banks which is important. This raises the question raised in the BT article u quoted - there is a huge pile of cash but not only is there no attempt to pay dividends, there is not the slightest inkling to have share buybacks to prop up prices.Why? I can only surmise they are worried. It was pointed out in another analysis in Feb that 60% of their standing orders are expiring in May. It means that they are worried about the amount of orders they can regenerate now that sales volumes are down and inventories are high.Like u say, they have to be prudent to conserve cash. Yet, rise in the demand of apparels is offset by drop in shoewear demand. Where are the profits going to come from? It'll be a constant drain on these reserves.

 u also missed out on their policy of advancing inventories to distributers. This is dangerous as it is their policy to takeover the store in the event the retailers are unable to repay debts. We dont know how good they really are at direct sales yet, compared to these retailers. As such, I accepted Pauline's RMB958m capital cost at face value and factored it in as a possible downside pressure.

 Upside

They're having a mtg in April to sort out their PR disaster when they didnt provide dividends but didnt give a thorough explanation of why they didnt do so. If they agree to both provide dvidends and buy back shares, is this truly good for the company? 

I agree with u on the effectiveness of using moving averages to gauge sentiment altho I prefer the 126day ma myself.

Conclusion

If they declare dividends, there may be a temporary upside altho it seems to have hit a resistance at 0.11. I'm inclined  to believe there's more downward pressure than upside. In fact, if they do the popular thing and allot money for dividend or share buyback, it'll deplete their cash reserves further. It would ironically be more harmful than good. Cheers.

I happen to agree with u on the reliability of analysts. A recent article on either Forbes or CMBC contended that over a protracted length of 30 years, analysts got 70% of their recommendations wrong. In this case, the analyst Pauline raised a few pertinent points.I personally see more downside potential than upside. Let me explain.

Downside

The money IS there in the banks which is important. This raises the question raised in the BT article u quoted - there is a huge pile of cash but not only is there no attempt to pay dividends, there is not the slightest inkling to have share buybacks to prop up prices.Why? I can only surmise they are worried. It was pointed out in another analysis in Feb that 60% of their standing orders are expiring in May. It means that they are worried about the amount of orders they can regenerate now that sales volumes are down and inventories are high.Like u say, they have to be prudent to conserve cash. Yet, rise in the demand of apparels is offset by drop in shoewear demand. Where are the profits going to come from? It'll be a constant drain on these reserves.

 u also missed out on their policy of advancing inventories to distributers. This is dangerous as it is their policy to takeover the store in the event the retailers are unable to repay debts. We dont know how good they really are at direct sales yet, compared to these retailers. As such, I accepted Pauline's RMB958m capital cost at face value and factored it in as a possible downside pressure.

 Upside

They're having a mtg in April to sort out their PR disaster when they didnt provide dividends but didnt give a thorough explanation of why they didnt do so. If they agree to both provide dvidends and buy back shares, is this truly good for the company? 

I agree with u on the effectiveness of using moving averages to gauge sentiment altho I prefer the 126day ma myself.

Conclusion

If they declare dividends, there may be a temporary upside altho it seems to have hit a resistance at 0.11. I'm inclined  to believe there's more downward pressure than upside. In fact, if they do the popular thing and allot money for dividend or share buyback, it'll deplete their cash reserves further. It would ironically be more harmful than good. Cheers.

 On wat basis did they "estimate that such working capital needs could potentially amount to RMB 958m", remember it is just their presumption just as they say "estimate", it could also be wrong.

Also, look at the whole mkt, how many stocks are trading at their net cash per share. Hence, never believe such thing as tgt price.

Oh yah, tell me

(1) which biz is not "facing mounting pressure in a difficult operating environment" in curent extraordinary financial tsunami, turmoil, crisis, one of the most severe crisis since the great depression,

(2)Is it not a blessing that "the management is being prudent to set aside hefty working capital needs, preserving their cashflow"

(3) Given, current mkt conditions, do u expect the trade fair to generate +nn% yoy, be realistic man!!

(4) ). Is it also not a blessing that "Total orders received for 9M09 have grown by approximately 9% yoy" in current mkt condition.

(5) Does it matter tat "Rising sales volumes of apparels (+12%) were insufficient to offset a 19% volume decline for sports footwear", the bottomline is net profit, who cares if the company generates net profit even though the rising volumes of apparels (+12%) were insufficient to offset the 19% volume decline for sports footwear.

(6)...blah.. blah...blah... it boils down to whether u choose to view a cup as half emty or half full

Finally, remember, mkts are driven by human sentiments, emotions, greed, fear, thus the beauty of TA.

Do u trust such fickle-minded analysis, one moment tgt price 23 ct, the next moment such drastic dropping of tgt price to 6 ct, wat next????... later on revise again the tgt price, maybe 50 ct, hahahahahaha!!!!!!.

If the initial prediction of 23 cts is a failure, I beg not to trust the revised fortune telling.

I never believe in such thing as target price as it is akin to shooting a live target, remember, mkt conditions keep changing.

I just read it like novels & occasional post for general info but dun read into it too much but rather trust my own TA analysis.

To make money, there is no shortcut & follow blindly analist tgt price, "they will bring u to holland", u have to learn to do own TA, set stop-loss & money management as even own TA never 100% right.

In any case, it is general knowledge that majority of analist are never right in their tgt price thus the need for frequent adjustment, u think they are god???, no they are not but just purely crystal ball gazing based on their perception of all the info they had. To me, they are just Market Fortune Teller.

Trust me, give the same set of info to 7 analist & u will have many diverse & different calls, just like asking 7 blind man to describe an elephant.

Show me an analist who stick unwaveringly to their tgt price & more than 50 % of the time are right in thier tgt & I will thank you & stick to this analist like a leech & treat him/her as my "money-god".

With the mkt so volatile, nobody can tell for sure wat will happen tomoro, let alone, trying to predict tgt price, always remember "Man propose, GOD dispose"

Chartwise, it does not seems it will drop to 0.06 as it is now supported by 8sma & in uptrend now.

But dyodd as I maybe right & also may be wrong as TA is never 100% right.

Not all S-shares are rotten apples, but the mkt now paints all s-shares with the same "fear" brush, so hope CHHX isn't rotten.

If it can withstand this recent onslaught & pass the mark & when the ill-wind blows over, then CHHX will soar.

Also read this article "Stimulus works for Chinese, IMF to emulate for emerging economies" to see why this counter is a real laggard due for upward bull run soon:

http://blogs.moneyandmarkets.com/real-wealth/stimulus-works-for-chinese-imf-to-emulate-for-emerging-economies/