"[Shoppers] know exactly what they want, where to shop for it and who has the best deals," said Britt Beemer, retail analyst and chairman of America's Research Group.

Based on this trend, the big difference this year from years past is that Beemer doesn't expect people will deviate from their shopping lists.

That's a problem for merchants who depend just as much on the impulse buy as they do on consumers' shopping lists to get them off to a flying start on Black Friday.

Scenes from Black Friday 2008

"I talked to a number of people standing in line in stores today. All had lists. And the lists had no more than three items," Beemer said. "The real question is whether there'll be anyone left [in stores] by midday."

The holiday excitement took a tragic turn at a Wal-Mart in Valley Stream, N.Y.

Police confirmed that a 34 year-old temporary employee was trampled to death at the opening of the store in the New York suburbs. A pregnant woman was taken to a hospital for observation.

""Our thoughts and prayers go out to the families of those impacted," Hank Mullany, Wal-Mart's president for the Northeast, said in a statement. He said the company is cooperating with a police investigation into the incident. (more on Black Friday violence)

With a weak economy in the background, bargain hunters gathered to snag special deals from anxious merchants who opened stores as early as 12:01 a.m.

Some malls reported higher traffic in the morning hours this year compared to last year.

At Atlanta's Lenox Square mall, the parking lot was 30% full by 5:30 a.m. with an estimated 2,000 shoppers.

"There were lots of bags from Macy's and other retailers indicating shoppers are purchasing more merchandise this year," said Les Morris, spokesman for Simon Property Group. the nation's largest mall operator.

Lori Johnson, mother of three, came to Toys R Us at the Rockaway Townsquare Mall in New Jersey shortly after 5 a.m., straight from her bartending job.

"It's Black Friday. You have to shop on Black Friday," Johnson said, hands filled with shopping bags. "As long as I still have money, I'll last."

Johnson and her sister, Tammy Bohn, purchased video games for 50% off.

The early reports of big crowds looked positive to retailers because the holiday shopping period, which unofficially kicked off Friday, can account for as much as 50% or more of sellers' annual profits and sales. The day is dubbed "Black Friday" because of its importance in determining a store's profitability for the year.

Most merchants have had an extremely difficult sales year as Americans seriously retrenched on their shopping habits in light of a worsening economy.

What's more, a record slump in consumer spending has already forced leading store chains such as Circuit City and Sharper Image into bankruptcy. Given this scenario, the National Retail Federation (NRF) forecast holiday sales to rise just 2.2% this year, which would make it the weakest sales gain in six years.

But despite what looked like a robust start for retailers, NPD Group's chief retail analyst Marshal Cohen said he estimates that the lines of early-bird shoppers seemed 20% less than last year.

Cohen, too, cautioned that the early buying frenzy could peter out by 10 a.m., or once the doorbuster deals that are only offered for a few hours were over.

"Shoppers definitely have a mission this year," Cohen said. "They are serious about finding the best deals. They are very budget conscious, they've done their research and then they'll go home."

Both Beemer and Cohen project a first-ever decline in total holiday sales. Cohen forecasts a 3% drop while Beemer estimates sales for November and December combined will slip 1%.


However, there was pent-up demand for some items. Consumers were flocking to hot deals on electronics. A Best Buy (BBY, Fortune 500) store in Paterson, N.J., had a long line of people waiting from as early as 8 p.m. on Thanksgiving Day, according to Chuck O'Donnell, Best Buy's district services manager for New Jersey.

"We're bringing people into the store in waves. There are just so many of them," O'Donnell said, adding that most of the shoppers were eager to pick up deals on laptops, digital cameras and iPods.

O'Donnell said he expected flat-panel TV shoppers to come later in the day.

A busy Black Friday at Wal-Mart

Flatscreen TVs, Blu-Ray players, vacuum cleaners and toys were selling fast at a Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) store at Fairfax, Va. Industry watchers expect the No. 1 retailer to emerge as a big winner by Christmas because of its value prices.

The hottest items at the Rockingham Park Mall in Salem, N.H., were Nintendo's Wii Fit and Guitar Hero videogames.

Lines snaked around the block at Toys R Us' flagship store in New York's Times Square before its 5 a.m. open.

"I didn't think it would be this [crowded], with the economy the way it was, but I guess Toys 'R' Us was offering the best deals, so this is where everyone came," said shopper Nicole Williams, 29, of New York City at the toy merchant's flagship store in Times Square.

Cold shoppers seek hot toy deals

Gerald Storch, CEO of Toys R Us, said people were in line at 9 p.m. Thursday outside the Times Square store.

"I am excited and optimistic about today and the rest of the holiday season," Storch said.

One interesting trend, Storch pointed out, was that shoppers weren't necessarily buying lower-priced toys. Storch said some of the fastest-selling toys in the first hour after the store opened were the $60 Elmo Live and the $139.99 Spike the Ultra Dinosaur from Fisher-Price.

"I'm not that surprised that parents are spending money on their kids, and they want to buy a good, quality toy," he said. "Parents tell us that they will cut back on themselves, but not on Christmas gifts for their kids."

The J.C. Penney store at the Columbia Mall in Grand Forks, N.D., was packed as early as 4 a.m. Penney's customers were bagging bargains on home products and winter clothing.

Penney announced that its Black Friday sale this year will have "the most compelling Black Friday prices ever offered in the Company's history" with more than 400 categories of products featuring deep discounts.

"Given the current economic environment, [the company] understands the issues facing our customers, and we are committed to offering the season's most affordable gifts," said Ken Hicks, president and chief merchandising officer for J.C. Penney.

However, retail analysts say merchants have to keep the shopping momentum alive not just on Friday but over the weekend as well.

This will be a real challenge. While consumers are cutting back on how much they spend on gifts, the NRF estimates that Black Friday and the Thanksgiving weekend will also likely see fewer Americans hitting stores.

The trade group said about 128 million people will commence their gift buying this Friday, Saturday or Sunday after Thanksgiving, down from 135 million last year.

Some retailers didn't bother waiting until Black Friday to jumpstart their holiday sales. The Nike store at the Woodburn Company Stores in Woodburn, Ore., opened its doors at 8:45 p.m. Thursday.

"Nike had a line that wrapped across the front of the center and past five other stores," said Kristy Kummer, marketing director for Woodburn Company Stores.

Still, Beemer remained unconvinced that retailers will see a decent start to the holiday season. "It will be a disappointment," he said.

-- CNN senior correspondent Allan Chernoff, CNN's Christina Cinnici, and CNNMoney.com staff writers David Ellis and Catherine Clifford contributed to this report 

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rallied 1.2%, or 102 points, which brings the blue-chip average's gains for the week to 785 points. For the month, however, the Dow has lost 489 points.

Friday's advance marks the first time the Dow has held gains for 5 consecutive sessions since Nov. 17, 2007.

The Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index ended 1% higher and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 0.2%.

The S&P 500 advanced 96 points in the week and is up about 30 points for the month. The tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbled 191 points this week but gained a total of 151 points in November.

U.S. markets were closed Thursday for Thanksgiving, and Friday's session ended at 1 p.m. ET. Trading was light with many market participants on vacation.

Friday's advance comes at the end one of the best weeks Wall Street has seen in months.

"The upward movement has to do with the latest installment of the government's bailout plan," said Abigail Doolittle, a portfolio manager at Johnson Illington Advisors, which has nearly $700 million in assets under management.

Doolittle also pointed to the "psychological benefit" of President-elect Barack Obama's nominations of key financial officials, which she said were "more conservative" than the market had anticipated.

The Dow surged nearly 400 points Monday, extending gains from the previous session, as investors cheered the government's rescue of banking giant Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Obama named New York Federal Reserve Bank President Timothy Geithner as his choice for Treasury secretary.

Tuesday's advance was less dramatic as dour economic reports vied with news that the government will provide roughly $800 billion to increase the availability of consumer and mortgage lending.

Stocks rallied across the board Wednesday after Obama said former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker will head his economic advisory board.

Looking ahead, weekly and monthly reports on the nation's beleaguered labor market could pressure the market. And an initial reading on what is expected to be a weak holiday sales period could also push stocks lower.

"The market seems to have a very short memory," Doolittle said. This week's gains could be forgotten if next week's economic news reflects "the dire fundamental picture," she said.

Black Friday: Investors are closely watching the retail sector as the nation goes into holiday-shopping mode. On "Black Friday," the day after Thanksgiving, retailers are offering deep discounts to kick off what is traditionally the sector's most profitable time of year.

However, consumers have drastically cut back on spending as unemployment continues rising, home values are plummeting and financial markets remain tumultuous. The trend is expected to continue through the holidays.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecast holiday sales to rise just 2.2% this year, which would make it the weakest sales gain in six years.

With consumer spending accounting for nearly two-thirds of the nation's total economic activity, a weak holiday sales period could further the market's perception that a prolonged recession is on the horizon.

Still, the market may find some support if Black Friday sales look like they could beat such low expectations, Doolittle said.

"Some people are feeling positive about the large flows of people into the malls, whether or not they're buying anything," she said.

Other markets: In global trade, Asian markets rose as the crisis arising from the terrorist attacks in India entered their third day. Major indexes in Europe were mixed.

Prices for U.S. Treasurys rose. The benchmark 10-year note advanced 1-20/32 to 107-4/32 and its yield fell to 2.92% from 2.99% on Wednesday. The yield fell below 3% for the first time in history during the previous session.

Treasury prices and yields move in opposite direction and lower yields suggest that investors are less concerned with profits and more focused on safety.

The dollar gained versus the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for January delivery fell 1 cent to $54.43 a barrel.

COMEX gold for February delivery rose $7.17 to $819 an ounce.

Gasoline prices continued the fall to nearly four-year lows, with gas down 1.1 cents to a national average of $1.835 a gallon, according to a survey of credit-card swipes released Wednesday by motorist group AAA. Prices have been sliding for more than two months, losing almost $2 a gallon or 51%. 

For many retailers, their survivability depends not only on having the biggest, boldest Black Friday sales they've ever had, but also on making sure that the critical holiday shopping season doesn't begin and end on the day after Thanksgiving.

Industry analysts warn that there's a high risk of that happening, given that many Americans are in a serious spending lockdown that has already pushed several retailers - including electronics merchant Circuit City - into bankruptcy.

"The bad news is that this could be the worst holiday [shopping] season on record," said Marshal Cohen, chief retail analyst with NPD Group.

"People will line up at 5 [a.m.] for the doorbuster deals," he said. "There'll be a little bit of frenzy for the $400 computer. And it will all be over by 10 [a.m]."

Consequently, Cohen predicts that sales for the November-December gift-buying period, which kicks off on Black Friday, could fall 3%.

The day after Thanksgiving is dubbed "Black Friday" because it traditionally marked the day of the year when retailers finally move out of the red, indicating losses, and into the black, representing profits.

Any decline in holiday sales is a dire scenario in an already crippling year for retailers since the two-month period can account for as much as 50% of merchants' annual profits and sales.

Cohen said this is the first time that he's forecasted a decline in holiday sales. And he's not the only one.

Other analysts are even more bearish with their forecasts.

Richard Hastings predicts holiday sales will tumble 6% to 8% this year.

Hastings, a consumer strategist with Global Hunter Securities, cites the "collapse of home equity," "two years of soaring energy prices" and accelerating job losses leading up to the holiday season for his estimates.

Britt Beemer with America's Research Group anticipates holiday sales will slip 1%, his first negative prediction in 23 years.

"This year looks so bad that even normally good signs for retail sales, such as more Americans staying home this Christmas, can't save the season for retailers," Beemer said.

For its part, the National Retail Federation (NRF), the industry's largest trade group, is a bit more hopeful. The NRF expects holiday sales to rise 2.2%, which would still be the weakest gain in 6 years.

Not only are consumers expected to retrench on their holiday-related purchases but Black Friday and the Thanksgiving weekend will also likely see fewer Americans hitting stores.

The NRF said its survey indicates that about 128 million people will commence their gift buying this Friday, Saturday or Sunday after Thanksgiving, down from 135 million the previous year.

That said, NPD's Cohen said retailers really have to go all out and make the most of each day.

To his point, department store chain J.C. Penney (JCP, Fortune 500) announced Tuesday that its Black Friday sale will have "the most compelling Black Friday prices ever offered in the Company's history" with more than 400 categories of products featuring deep discounts.

"Given the current economic environment, J.C. Penney understands the issues facing our customers, and we are committed to offering the season's most affordable gifts," said Ken Hicks, president and chief merchandising officer for J.C. Penney.

"[Retailers] have to give people what they want at any price," Cohen said. "Shoppers will see 75% off on Black Friday and all week after that. I've been doing this for 33 years and I've never seen 75% off signs in mid-November."

Some malls are opening for business on Thanksgiving Day this year because their retail tenants don't want to wait until Black Friday to jumpstart sales.

But mall operators, too, are struggling to stay in business after several struggling retail chains shuttered their underperforming mall-based stores.

For the first time in its history, all of the 11 shopping centers owned by Craig Realty will open at 11 p.m. on Thanksgiving Day.

At one of those centers - Los Angeles-based Citadel Outlets - the Old Navy store is opening as early as 9 p.m. Thursday and both the Tommy Hilfiger and Guess stores are opening at 10 p.m., according to spokeswoman Anita Boeker.

"The earliest that we've opened our centers is midnight. But our tenants are much more aggressive this year. They are nervous," she said.

Smart online sellers, who realize that many cost-conscious shoppers will likely shift some of their holiday shopping online this year for better prices and free shipping, are rushing to grab their share of Black Friday dollars.

On Monday, Ebay (EBAY, Fortune 500) introduced "$1 Holiday Doorbusters." The company said 100 gift items, such as digital cameras and GPS devices, and one luxury item, including a brand-new Chevrolet Corvette, will be listed each day until Dec. 8 on eBay.com for a $1 fixed price.

Cohen and Beemer both expect Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) to pull in big crowds on Black Friday because of its value prices. "But then [shoppers] will go to some specialty stores as well," Cohen said.

"Look, there is pent-up demand among consumers," Cohen said, pointing to the huge demand for the $250 BlackBerry Storm smartphone that launched this week.

"In this environment, it's absolutely necessary for retailers to have compelling merchandise if they want reluctant consumers to spend money," he said. "Otherwise 2009 will be just like this year has been for retailers." 

LONDON (AP) -- European stock markets closed higher Thursday in the wake of earlier gains in Asia and Wall Street's fourth consecutive rise on Wednesday, ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. Indian markets were closed after deadly attacks in the country's financial capital.

The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares closed up 73.41 points, or 1.8%, at 4,226.10, while Germany's DAX was 104.77 points, or 2.3%, higher at 4,665.27. The CAC-40 in France was 80.54 points, or 2.5%, higher at 3,250.39.

U.S. markets were closed for Thanksgiving.

Banks across Europe, including Standard Chartered PLC, Deutsche Bank AG, UBS AG and Societe Generale SA, did well, while heavyweight energy stocks such as BP PLC, Royal Dutch Shell and Total SA firmed following Wednesday's 8 percent rally in the price of oil.

Europe's gains came as Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average added almost 2 percent to 8,373.39 points, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng benchmark rose 1.4 percent to 13,552.06.

The rise in European and Asian markets came after Wall Street reversed early losses Wednesday to end up solidly in the black. The Dow Jones industrial average closed 2.9% higher at 8,726.61, its first four-day winning streak since April 15-18. Meanwhile, the broader Standard & Poor's 500 index advanced 3.5%, to close at 887.68.

The Dow has risen 15.6% in the last four days, its biggest four-day percentage gain since 1932. The S&P 500's four-day rally was its first since May.

The rally on Wall Street came despite further poor news on the U.S. economy. Figures showed durable goods orders in October slumped by a two-year high rate of 6.2%, new home sales at a 17-year low and consumer sentiment languishing at a 28-year low.

"Four straight days of the S&P rising not only provides a welcome respite for markets it makes a half decent 'Thanksgiving Day' present," said Howard Wheeldon, senior strategist at BGC Partners.

There are some hopes in markets that a raft of policy measures around the world, such as the rescue of Citigroup Inc., may limit the scale of the global downturn next year, though the upcoming Christmas sales period is not expected to be particularly good for retailers.

Britain's home improvements firm Kingfisher PLC was down 6% Thursday after predicting a gloomy 2009 and investors took fright at the news that general retailer Woolworths PLC has been put into administration after its creditors effectively pulled the plug.

In the U.S., investors are responding to President-elect Barack Obama's pledge to have an economic plan to deal with the crisis on his first day in office in mid-January and mounting expectations that the U.S. government will bail out troubled automaker General Motors Corp.

Investors also cheered China's 1.08 percentage-point rate cut to spur private borrowing and support a multibillion-dollar stimulus package to keep the country's economy -- a key engine of growth in Asia and elsewhere -- from slowing too fast.

Across Asia, commodity and shipping stocks soared on hopes that China's rate cut -- the fourth in three months -- would underpin demand for metal, oil and other resources as well as the means to transport them.

"Overall investors are still cautious and waiting to see how things turn out, but there is definitely relief that the financial system is going to be supported by governments around the world," said D. Gorton, research analyst at Louis Capital Markets in Hong Kong.

Australian mining giant BHP Billiton Ltd. gained 5.7%, and No. 2 Chinese steel maker Angang surged 7.3 percent in Hong Kong. Japan's Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd., the world's biggest cargo shipper, jumped 7.4%.

Elsewhere in Asia, mainland China Shanghai Composite index rose 1.1 percent to 1,917.86, after gaining as much as 3.7%. Markets in South Korea, Taiwan and Australia also were higher.

In India, markets were closed after coordinated attacks by teams of gunmen across Mumbai, the country's financial capital, killed at least 101 people.

Thai shares traded 1 percent lower after authorities shut down Bangkok's second airport Thursday after it was overrun by anti-government protesters, completely cutting off the capital from air traffic as the country's political crisis deepened.

Oil prices were down slightly Thursday after rallying 8 percent the previous session. The January contract was down $0.47 to $53.97 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In currencies, the dollar was steady at 95.55 yen, while the euro was unchanged at $1.2878.