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Gold going up this year?
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elfinchilde
Elite |
12-Aug-2008 13:16
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yuppers, cwquah. market expects is different from the movement though. as in, most people expect the EU pair to go up, UJ to go down. going by trends tho, it's EU down to 14600 and UJ up to who-knows-where. The irony is that, for all the currencies, it's the US that has more or less factored in all the bad news already, while the Euro hasn't. So ironically, the safest currency is the USD now. Historically, the DJIA has never been down in an election year. ie, you can see central banks fingerprints all over forex, gold and equities. 
so yea, which is why gold will be down for now. the question that then remains: a temporary down, or a permanent down? it's a qn i was discussing with a friend earlier. STI/Asia doesn't look strong; money is flowing out of the commods. So where's money going? DJIA! 
what then for gold? there's been buyups these two days on the SPDR GLD; one was a 1,000 lot buyup. That's about S$100k on one trade. which is counter the major trend. Considering gold here is controlled by Citi and MS, something's cooking somewhere. i'm just KIVing til friday to make a decision. hehe. |
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ozone2002
Supreme |
12-Aug-2008 12:57
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gold in the 3Q usually is their lull period..correct me if i'm wrong.. come end 3Q beginning 4Q..with the dewali festivals in india..gold will start to push up.. and if hurricane starts stomping on the US which highly likely will... this will influence gold as oil prices start to rise.. |
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CWQuah
Master |
12-Aug-2008 12:54
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To play gold, I think also need to know a bit on the mkt expectations for USD, EUR, JPY. Especially the central banks' stance on EUR, USD. The mkt had not expected Trichet to actually sound that bearish on EUR a few days back. He's known to be very hawkish. Despite US cutting rates, so far Trichet didn't even budge much. Admitting to slowdown = rate hike put off indefinitely = EURUSD fall, USDJPY up = oil collapse/gold down. Damn interesting to see how everything links up. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
12-Aug-2008 12:10
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yuppers. don't buy all at one shot. support is at 78.5. just wait for it to bottom out. anomaly on the charts: abandoned baby formed with today's action. note: the current rise of the USD is atypical. versus the Euro, it rose 500 pips in 3 days from 7th to 10th aug without a retracement, and a further 200 pips from yest to day. (the EU traders were howling.  )
in S$ comparison: last wed, the USD-S$ was 1.38. By friday, it was 1.4. Yest, it was 1.4112. So if you factor in the exchg rate, the "dip" is actually much less steep than it appears. just wait til friday to see what next to do lah. |
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idesa168
Elite |
12-Aug-2008 10:09
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OK, took your advice, jeep a little at 79.2+. Next purchase +/- US$1.00. Cheers
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ozone2002
Supreme |
12-Aug-2008 09:37
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everytime it goes lower u buy.. graham's method of investing.. don't buy all @ one go..tat's suicide.. sell when the price is high or when there's a frenzy.. who said investing was difficult? |
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idesa168
Elite |
12-Aug-2008 09:13
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Dun seems to be stopping or slow down in the seeling. Shall wait a littlw while more then decide is it worth getting in! | ||||
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elfinchilde
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 17:10
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hmm...actually, i don't think gold will keep going down for long. it's oversold already. one reason why the px looks lower is because the USD has strengthened to about S$1.38. Previously it was about S$1.35 just last month. in other words, this current ~US85 is worth about US$87.5 previously. ie, it's actually still on its support and not broken below. that's why i gave the earlier point to note your exchg rate at pt of buy and sell. so two factors to pay attention to, for this counter: actual px, and exchg rate. |
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Hulumas
Supreme |
08-Aug-2008 16:42
Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!" |
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Is the Gold game over? Long term down trend or still short term uptrend? I personally select the first one.
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elfinchilde
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 16:30
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just fyi: 1st buy for gold was actually about 85.5-86.5, because that's the pivot. ie, gold may rebound up from there, or it may dip further. 2nd buy should preferably be for sub 84. wait for the bottoming turn up to trigger. impt: pls note your exchange rate at pt of buy and sell. the USD is strengthening, so even if gold appears to dip, you may be on profit. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
06-Aug-2008 11:00
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worth considering to start accumulating from now. be careful and go in parts tho; you're dealing with two foreign BB on automated systems for this counter. not for contra. to run on signal of RSI 14. |
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ozone2002
Supreme |
23-Jul-2008 13:24
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Wah even Soros also follow me buy gold..hor seh liaoz :):):) London Gold Market Report from Adrian Ash THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD dropped 1.3% at lunchtime in London on Friday, sliding into the US open – and heading for its first weekly loss in five – as world stock markets ticked higher. The US Dollar rose on the forex market. Crude oil futures jumped 2.1% – "a dead cat bounce," according to one trader – after suffering their worst drop since Dec. 2004 so far this week. "There was a story out yesterday that George Soros had shorted oil and bought Gold," notes Mitsui, the precious metals dealer in London, pointing to a story at Forbes.com. Forbes cites the current low in the Oil-Gold Ratio as the reason behind Soros's rumored long gold, short oil position. "How much this directly affected the market is unclear," Mitsui goes on, "but there certainly appeared to be more support for the precious metals late in the day and there is a firm tone in London this morning. "With the Gold Market holding above $950, the upward trend is still intact for now." George Soros – co-founder of the Quantum Fund with the legendary Jim Rogers in the 1970s – has reportedly traded this gold bull market all through this decade, adding to the $100 million profit he made from gold in 1993. "Gold has had a strong run from July 8 to 15," said David Thurtell of BNP Paribas to Bloomberg earlier, "and you're always going to have some profit taking after that." "The decline in oil yesterday supported capital flows into US equity markets," says Manqoba Madinane at Standard Bank in Johannesburg, "which supported the Dollar through the New York trading session. "[But] with credit spreads trending sideways, at elevated levels, and crude oil prices likely to remain resilient, Gold could attract some bargain buying at current prices." The Western world's largest banking group, Citigroup, today posted a $2.5 billion loss and said it's laid off 11,000 staff so far in 2008. Merrill Lynch, the third largest investment bank in the US, last night reported a worse-than-expected loss of $4.9bn for April to June. The fourth quarterly loss on the run, Merrill's "difficult and disappointing" results are forcing the sale of its stakes in Bloomberg News and the Blackrock fund management firm. US mortgage giant Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored agency, is said by the Wall Street Journal to be seeking $10 billion in a new capital issue. Meantime on the currency markets, the European single currency fell vs. the Dollar, dropping below $1.5850 – almost two cents beneath Tuesday's new all-time record high – after ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet forecast the "trough" in economic growth would run to October. Speaking to The Irish Times in Dublin, Trichet pointed to "growth risks [including] the very significant financial market correction, the possible further increases in oil and commodity prices, and the possible unwinding of global financial imbalances." Here in the United Kingdom, however, financial imbalances continue to mount, with private-sector debt growing by £50 billion ($100bn) in June – a new monthly record – according to the Bank of England today. June's jump in new debt more than made up for May's Decline in UK Lending, and topped the previous record set in April. It also took the growth in private debt for the first-half of 2008 above £154bn ($307bn) – outstripping the entire growth in new credit during 2003 and keeping the UK on track to match 2007's full-year record. But the risk of further money-led inflation, coming hard on the heels of this week's 16-Year Record in UK Inflation, failed to buoy the British Pound on the currency market today. With the Bank of England unlikely to raise interest rates while turnover in the housing market sinks to three-decade lows, the Pound slipped back below $2.00. The Gold Price in British Pounds rose above £480 per ounce, more than twice its price of three years ago. "Volatile stock markets and a lack of confidence in the UK banking system has boosted demand for gold bars and coins from private investors to levels not seen for 25 years," reports The Daily Telegraph online today. "Tens of thousands of investors have rushed to Buy Gold from bullion dealers over the past year." Adrian Ash Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and head of editorial at the UK's leading financial advisory for private investors, Adrian Ash is the editor of Gold News and head of research at BullionVault – where you can Buy Gold Today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees. |
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ozone2002
Supreme |
15-Jul-2008 14:50
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dont follow the herd..let them follow u.. :) | ||||
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cathylmg
Elite |
15-Jul-2008 13:53
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All the aunties and grandmothers will take out their dowry jewellrys and sell if it reach $1000 per ounces. I am also one of them. | ||||
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ozone2002
Supreme |
15-Jul-2008 13:24
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gold!..can u dig it sucka! :) | ||||
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ozone2002
Supreme |
03-Jul-2008 16:23
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gold gold gold..ale ale ale.. :) | ||||
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ozone2002
Supreme |
01-Jul-2008 15:59
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accumulate gold on dips..don't see ur money get eroded by inflation... especially if ya holding onto the depreciating US$ | ||||
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elfinchilde
Elite |
30-Jun-2008 16:46
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yeps ozone. people will always be suspicious of what they do not understand. as with zhuge liang, i've been advocating this counter since goodness knows when last year. (you can track my posts on this thread; i seem to have a lot of them here. hahaa). those who are looking for a hedge ignore this commodity at their own peril. those interested to jump in need to know however that gold does not move like a fast trading stock. for best returns, it's a sit-and-hold type. consistent scalping for mid term or just hold for longterm. whatever you do, don't just 'whack' this counter. MS and citibank are your regular BBs controlling this counter. and they control it very tightly. caveat applies as usual. |
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
30-Jun-2008 16:33
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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good option for gold at this volatile moment. exp CO will likely hike to above 150, in weeks to come. AK view only loh. | ||||
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ozone2002
Supreme |
30-Jun-2008 16:29
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GLD the sleeping beauty awakes :)
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