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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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elfinchilde
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 16:26
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edit: oh, and for the record, you do not cut capland. at least, not at this stage. way oversold and rebound likely. if you have guts, wait for bottom, go in deep and DCA it out. cos if you follow this baby, when it rebounds, it rebounds sharp and fast. be psychologically prepared for further drop to 411 possible tho (worst case scenario is a sub 4.). actually, i consider capland to be a speculative/trading counter and not a fundamental counter. it's v good for rapid trades. unlike say, STE. today may be induced by margin calls. buy support thin so when margin calls come in, the counter will dive quite a bit. easy for BB to shoot this counter down cos you only need about S$5mil or less, going by current buy Qs.. ie, 3-4 baby props can bring down this counter, don't even need a real big BB. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 16:19
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having a big heart doesn't pay, idesa. 
i'll 'fess up that i was one of those who took the opp of the previous rebound tho. played it 511 to 530 (missed the 543 cos i was sleeping.  )
sigh. humulas, sir, you seem to be holding a lot of counters.... i'm not the kind of person who whitewashes things, so 'll be frank: generally, i'd advise a cut on all dying speculatives, and use the funds to wait to shore up the better counters instead. don't think of it as loss, think of it as capital preservation and a diversion of funds, if you will. sometimes, need to cut off the rotting parts so that the tree can grow again. 
gotta be realistic and not expect profit though. you'd probably be lucky to escape with slight loss or even square. choice of counters will be what makes/breaks your decision. not all pennies are bad, not all blues are good. So if we were to divide them up (you have to look at your own folio) 1) for some counters, they're likely deader than dodos. those need to be cut. 2) some speculative counters that are too far down, you may want to try a DCA instead, average down and try later to run at slight loss or maybe even profit. 3) good counters, just hold, average them down when opportunity arises. -entire strategy will likely take 18-24 mths to bear (+) fruit. you will require funds, though. Which (1) should provide. hondastream, nothing much negative really; just general bad climate, plus its results weren't that good, prognosis isn't good, etcetc. |
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idesa168
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 16:13
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Thanks JJ, my trades are extremely short, sometimes in an hour. As I played pretty small, so no stress. Only lately my work is not so busy that I trade, if not, I long counters and dun monitors them.
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jackjames
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 16:09
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ideasa168, not sure your very short term is contra or what... but one has to admit that it is not easy to earn money at very short term. so, try longer term ba... we all see how capitaland rocket while the market sentiments turn good. so, i would advise rather don't look at the stock price every single day and trade, that is stressful man... my friend is a broker, he told me, be a broker or full time trader, whatever, they all have high blood pressure, what to do, every single day facing the stocks price and their job is to trade, of course so stressful.... |
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hondastream
Member |
08-Aug-2008 15:59
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any -ve thing that make this counter run south... ?? | ||||
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idesa168
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 15:33
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Maybe little elf with a big heart can help the poor soul here! | ||||
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idesa168
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 15:31
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I can't advise you on this, as we are different type of "investor". My intention is very short term, once I see a little profit I may go for the exit. I am not so much into stock lately as the meltdown really make my legs soft. I put my $$ in REITS which surprisingly being 'sheltered' from the storm lately. I got into CapLand, just to get kopi$$. If I feel I got in at the wrong price, I will cut. Should it goes up after I cut, I dun usually look back! I cut my CapLand at 4.96, it's now 4.91, so I made the right choice for the time being. Good luck bro!
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Hulumas
Supreme |
08-Aug-2008 15:10
Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!" |
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Aiya, even property blue chip subjected to huge paper loss, though not in term of percentage but I put more weighting of % holding in my portfolio, still my average price above Sgd. 6.50 and substantial lots holding. How am I going to do, any suggestion?
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idesa168
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 14:45
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5.02 I thought was cheap, the worst nightmare came to me, it got cheaper...LOL! Kena burnt lah! | ||||
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elfinchilde
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 14:30
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issuing caution note on capland: it's currently resting near exactly its Apr-Sept 06 support of ~5. next support is 4.11-4.2, so if it breaks this support, be prepared for quite a steep fall. alt is a ping up tech rebound from here. bias seems more likely for down tho; not fully oversold yet. plus large lots threw today from 503 (100-400 lots each throw). fyi only. not vested. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 13:06
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hopini, very difficult for people who know to share on open forums, since you could very well be marked by them. already, ppl like me, trader88 etc are taking a big risk when we post out. which is why generalities are only possible but not actual specific evidence: even tho i fully believe many here can give it if required. tactics of the BB. if there's one thing you need to know in order to beat the market, it is this. combined with technicals and discipline, you need nothing else, really. but their tactics is also the most closely guarded secret of the trade. eg, straight-off, i can tell you what you need to know to survive this counter and profit. but what's the cost to me? we still need to survive.
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hopinj
Member |
08-Aug-2008 11:13
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trade88, care to share the tactics of the BB? ganna many times from them and bleeded badly... | ||||
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Blastoff
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 07:14
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Waiting for it to break $5... | ||||
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trader88.sg
Veteran |
07-Aug-2008 22:31
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Big boys' tactics. Nothing new. It is better for small players to avoid. But I like it though, even though I am a small player. |
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winsontkl
Elite |
07-Aug-2008 22:07
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Oops $5.10 now .... will it break $5 barrier??? | ||||
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winsontkl
Elite |
06-Aug-2008 22:03
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Did went up initially to 5.43 but eventually face selling ie. many sell on strength resulting in 2 cents lost... | ||||
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Blastoff
Elite |
06-Aug-2008 06:30
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Missed the $5.01/$5.02... have to wait again..... Good for those who manage to get at that price... profit already 26/27 cents per lot. Today may go up after DOW up by 331.62. | ||||
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winsontkl
Elite |
05-Aug-2008 22:02
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ilovebull, for the near term it seems not so bullish leh....but support line at $5 will be tested again...will it hold???? Anybody guess...think will hold back buying for the moment since it has rebound to $5.28.... | ||||
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ilovebull
Member |
05-Aug-2008 14:55
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Dear winsontkl, price drop to your target level of $5.00 liao... May I know whether you are buying or still want to wait ? | ||||
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elfinchilde
Elite |
05-Aug-2008 14:08
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update: ML took first part of the short, UBS on the second part. don't know who's buying tho, or if that's them shortcovering. |
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