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ST Engg
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Sporeguy
Elite |
16-Jul-2008 16:43
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Hi Elfin, Well-done for the candlesticks and supports. Using wave, ST Engg may be at the 5th wave downwards. Looks like your 3rd support may be the endof the 5th wave. Yr 2nd support may becomes the 1st resistance, etc | ||||
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elfinchilde
Elite |
16-Jul-2008 15:36
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------------- ok. since i've locked in forex and am free for the day.  and as apologies to all here for kb-ing away. 
how to work with supports and resistances as per CWQuah's post, to build on it. Above is the STE weekly chart, for the past three years. I've drawn the supports and the peak on it. Why three years and weekly? because the aim is longterm, hence, you need to cancel out daily white noise of intraday fluctuations. A lot of people think you draw a line, and the support is the support, the resistance is the resistance. So if you buy at the previous support, it's "sure to win", and if you short at the resistance, it's "sure to win also." But there are two things to utilising a chart: 1) how to draw the S/R lines (support and resistance) 2) how to use it looking forward. To draw the lines are simple enough: see chart above. Where a support is formed is where the candlesticks form consistent bases at that price. it is especially good if you see a long resistance to breaking the support: notice the 1st support, the long black candlestick that touches it, and then rebounds to close above the high. that's your indication that it's a very firm support. ie, if it breaks it (and you're shortterm), you'd have cut and chose to short it. So (1): that's how you derive S/R levels: from the previous price/vol charting. 2) To apply the knowledge forward: why i keep saying the levels are fluid: note, as in the past: only when candlesticks form consistent bases is a support created. Hence, if you see the 2nd historical support, that's abt 2.66, which was what i had posted earlier. ie, somewhere around, and not exactly, that level is when you can expect the next px to dip to. BUT: will it be exactly that? Of course not! To determine where it will actually be, look at the data, realistically: Was there any consistent bases formed? No. Hence, you would not enter at 2.66 now, even though that was the previous support. The stock must find its own base before you enter. ie, support formed, then you enter. not before. o/w, it's called being trigger happy. it's buying on expectation and not reality. If i'm not mistaken, this is why i think a lot of newbies think TA is inaccurate? But methinks the course instructor/book probably failed to mention this. that applying the knowledge of S/R forwards, the candlestick bases must be consistent before you enter. o/w, really, if every support is always there, and every resistance is always there, who would lose in the market? (-_-")... hope this is helpful. and haha, stupidfool, not really. i haven't exactly had it easy, either. there are things we must always give for what we want. i'm sure you're doing well. 
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stupidfool
Senior |
16-Jul-2008 15:11
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Hi sister elf Good for u...have all ur plans set up. Obviously have ur head screwed on....not like me,still working and heading nowhere |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
16-Jul-2008 15:07
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edit: thanks to all who are giving me good ratings. apologies for being such a whiner. hehe. do remember, you fire the gun, you bite the bullet.  just as investors, be financially responsible for yourselves; and yea, a bear market is good: it knocks sense into us, who may otherwise think that money will always be easy.
and i just realised something from his lingo: trader88, you aren't just a man-off-the-streets trader. Which house you belong to? *grin* |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
16-Jul-2008 14:57
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x 0
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that's what i meant. you're a trader. so why diss a long term strat? not everyone is that tech savvy enough--how many here have CFD accounts, for eg--or have the time/tools to keep watching the market, or the temperament to: in which case, really, for these folks, it's much better going longterm. it's about risk/reward ratio, and money management. short open is good; so i guess i won't havta tell ya that a bounce is in order in the general market soon; and shortists are likely to get caught out due to the thinness of market and lots of ppl waiting on sidelines. stupidfool, HNWI at 30/31 is just the first step. there are other milestones to hit along the way. so for eg, HNWI by 30/31, overseas properties by 45, self generating folio by 55, etcetc.
hehe. cheers to all. redash, HSI will affect broad market lah. it's oversold, and ppl are hungry for a rally. so if bad news are in, it's likely to be discounted cos it's already factored in; but good news will rally the market. eg, All you need is the notice that QDII is in, and you'll likely see a relief rally. |
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redash
Member |
16-Jul-2008 14:41
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x 0
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Does the raise in HAng Seng affect this counter? | ||||
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cathylmg
Elite |
16-Jul-2008 14:37
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Look at the counter now. Rebound after lunch.
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jackjames
Elite |
16-Jul-2008 14:32
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x 0
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don't drag me in lei.... i have no hidden meaning at all... but i just talked to my friends working at ST engineering near my house, at Toh Guan... heee.... they are doing great, and somemore employee can buy small volume of stocks, and buy 1 get 1 free... believe it or not, but.. it has certain quota like buy 500 shares, and give u additional 500 shares.. first time hearing this..
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stupidfool
Senior |
16-Jul-2008 14:23
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Hi sister elf I followed ur postings since last year....hehe.And i do enjoy it. Like u said,life has to be flexible. I rem,last year,u were very keen to achieved HNWI by age 30 or 31. Now u have moved ur target to 55? |
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trader88.sg
Veteran |
16-Jul-2008 14:16
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Hey brother elfinchide, Since you talked about strike prices and brother jackjames talked about not buying at the strike prices you mentioned, I just tagged along and congratulated brother jackjames for being lucky lor. This talk of strike prices does not make me a non-trader. Talk only mah. Let me emphasize here that I am a trader who trades only on TA. I do not average down my purchase. But I average up when the next resistance is broken. FYI, I am still holding on to my short position of ST Eng opened at 2.70.
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CWQuah
Master |
16-Jul-2008 13:13
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Gave Elf a good post - If the market trend hasn't sobered the newbies yet to the cruel realities of the market, then I hope Elf's very pragmatic post will be read by more. Trying to go long in this bear market is like swimming against the currents. Just because there are previous supports/resistances, doesn't mean we buy at the support and expect 100% chance for rebound! Supports/resistances can and will break! 2.75, 2.66, 2.55 all broke. Tio boh? If there's any trading system that claims to be foolproof and doesn't require a stop loss, it's not worth buying. Hoping is not a productive activity that boosts one's coffers; every trade has to be a calculated move. Just some food for thought. |
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Farmer
Master |
16-Jul-2008 12:19
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I shared your longterm strategy on stocks just like I share some of your past views on certain counters...looking back, it's actually turn out to be quite true. A good eg. is OCBC and now ST Engg. Having gone thru' the same crisis times as you've mentioned, I can't agreed more with such a quality/considerate post. I hope more forumers will follow your style and generosity to contribute to this forum and benefit the rest. Thanks!
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elfinchilde
Elite |
16-Jul-2008 11:37
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ah, closure of airspace. no wonder the dip. foreigners must have gotten wind of it earlier. yea, supremeA. thanks for the note of encouragement. am probably too short-tempered, but i can't quite stand it when one makes an effort to post things of value, and you get such comments in return. esp when i bother to put all the caveats, and to emphasize which strategy, suitable for which kind of people, and the info about supports and exact entries: i hardly believe even TA courses here will teach in such detail. fixed, critical minds are intolerable to me. it's casual cruelty. the market proves right in the end. this may shed more light on why i post the way i do: perhaps i'm a little different from most forumers here. because my own focus has always been for the longterm portfolio: ie, what will my portfolio be decades away, when i am 55? Rather than day to day "kopi money". What i am after is consistency of returns. That is measured over years. Wealth takes years to build, not days. I have had my targets set since i was 17. '97 financial crisis, '03 sars crisis, '07 bull, '08 subprime crisis. That's three bears, one bull. I'm not yet 30 but i've been through these and made through it all. And all i'm saying is, it requires different strategies to survive in each of these markets. And why i'm emphasizing longterm DCAing now rather than fast scalps (as opposed to last year) is because the odds for survival are much higher if you do longterm now, than if you scalp (for newbies, who have always been my main focus, since experienced traders will have their own methods). The days of easy money are over, let's face it. We've got to be realistic. You scalp now, sure, you make one day, but you lose another, so what's the point of all the effort and stress over the DJIA's every blip, every drop of the STI? (unless you're after the thrill, in which case, really, that's gambling.) even if you manage to beat the odds, for that amount of time and effort spent on the screen, you can easily put your money into a good stock, make just a couple of trades in six months, and still return more. I'm very practical: it's all about the least amount of effort to make the most amount of gains. eg, right now, i'm more than 50% in cash. one of my holdings is going to return >3.5% in dividends. that's just interim dividend. Am waiting for it to drop so i can buy in more. So there's a lot of machismo and gungho-ness about being right on fast scalps, but look longterm: why the rush? And also, right time period. is this really the time to "play hero"? that's why for myself, through the years, i've learnt long, mid, short term trading, and bothered to pick up FA as well. Apart from macro-trends. Currently forex. It's about learning all the way. So final note for the newbies: when you buy a stock, do you actually have a plan? What is your stop, what is your target, what is your contingency plan? And why, precisely, are you buying? Never just answer: "like that lor." or "it will go up." It must be clear in your mind. Evidence before movement.
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kruxsj
Member |
16-Jul-2008 10:56
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x 2
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Wednesday, July 16, 2008STEng - UOBKHClosure of runway at Seletar will impact FY09’s earningsBusiness Times has reported that Selatar runway will be redeveloped in November for a period of 18 months. The runway will be closed for 14 hours a day and there will be flight restrictions during this period. The move is part of a redevelopment plans to extend the runway to allow for a wide aircraft types to access the Selatar Aerospace Park. Impact ST Aerospace operates a Hangar at Selatar with a capacity for 13 narrow body aircraft and performs Boeing 757 conversions and other aircraft maintenance works. The company has clarified that some of the conversion and maintenance works will be shifted to Paya lebar and Changi hangars, while C130 military transport related works could be moved to Selatar. Even so, we believe that utilization rate at Selatar could fall in 2009 and that the other bases might not be able to fully take up the slack. We estimate that Singapore operations accounted for about $600-650m in revenue in FY07. Given that works on the runway will only commence in November, there would be limited impact on FY08. However, FY09, could see at least see a 10% decline in revenue from Singapore operations. We have adjusted our FY09 net profit to reflect that but maintain our Hold recommendation for now. |
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SupremeA
Veteran |
16-Jul-2008 10:42
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hey chill elf, no need to focus on those ppl who complain. Can talk to the rest of us who are learning | ||||
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elfinchilde
Elite |
16-Jul-2008 10:27
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eh. you two guys are talking with the benefit of hindsight, which is 100%. it could have also went up from somewhere between then and now. plus, by your previous posts, you both are traders, not longterm holders. it's a completely dif strat you employ. and i said before so many times already, that the 'supports' and 'targets' (if this makes it clearer for people) are FLUID. what price you actually enter/exit is determined only by that week/day itself. So if i were in this counter, would i have entered at 2.66? No. Why? Because no where in the charts indicate that 2.66 is a viable support. At least 5 days closing px constant at that level. the trouble with a singaporean mentality is that it *must* be this way, or it is *that* way. So black and white. So concrete. How to succeed in a marketplace that is above all, fluid? that's one of the reasons i don't like giving strike prices and targets on SJ, you get all sorts of 'buay zhun' and 'wahhh, zhun ah!' talk. which is gambling. Differentiate between the stocks, the strategies, and the personalities required for each. |
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jackjames
Elite |
16-Jul-2008 10:20
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i was super busy last week, and next week too.. guess i will not position myself until next month... so, i just wait and see sideline la.. unless.. terribly crash that i think it is too cheap to be true.. then, maybe can take some action.. | ||||
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trader88.sg
Veteran |
16-Jul-2008 10:04
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Sounds like you are lucky you did not know the 2 higher strike prices earlier. Otherwise, you average price will be higher.
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jackjames
Elite |
16-Jul-2008 08:08
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x 0
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so, sound like I miss the first 2 strike, so, waiting for the 3rd strike at 2.32 ... possible today? nothing is impossible, heee.. By technicals, past 3 years data: you'd have to DCA to prepare for 3 strikes, in a worst case scenario. first entry is ~2.87. second strike at ~2.66. third strike at ~2.32. upside possible is to 3.2-3.3. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
16-Jul-2008 02:33
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edit: forgot one more thing: some ppl divide up by lots for DCA-ing. others go by dollars. (eg, 60k, divided into three sections for three strikes. or "I will buy 5 lots, 5 lots, 5 lots each time.") if you utilise the dollar method, when a stock goes down more than you expected, it's actually an opportunity to buy more at a lower px, thereby lowering your overall cost price. it is from this method, over the years, that some longtimers can build up portfolios of say, sembcorp at an ave of $4, or kepcorp at an average of $9 (after its split). after a period of time, the dividends will offset the cost of the mother stock, and it becomes 'self generating'. that's the ideal scenario. which is why, really, a bear market should not be feared. it should be looked upon as a chance to build serious value for the years ahead. Again, pls note that this is for a longterm strategy, so the mindset has to be there. if you're trading shortterm, you'd either have shorted this counter, or cut it long ago. haha. Also, DCA does not work for all stocks. some, esp the pennies, just languish for years. So it's impt to choose a right stock for DCAing. |
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