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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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jasonrxz
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20-May-2008 11:18
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Seems that people rushing in for the release of the upcoming result and so happen that coincide with the 6th week duration for BIG to run up..... Nevertheless, hope it shiong over .8 which is the resistance.... Huat ar...
have faith in this stock!!!!!
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jackjames
Elite |
20-May-2008 11:18
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look like your observation is true, history repeats itself, wow.... this is something new to me.
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twdan8866
Member |
20-May-2008 11:15
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yes keep it up all the ways. uppppppp. |
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PensionAlterEgo
Member |
20-May-2008 11:08
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Assuming a 50% simple majority is needed for takeover, I think JNJ still stands a chance to do a takeover. As of May 2007, Mr Lu and Associates still owns about 35% share. Of course this will be diluted if JWMS's deal goes through (maybe to about 30%)....but Mr Lu and Associates still has a significant percentage to decide on the deal.
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bengster68
Master |
20-May-2008 10:26
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What the Doctors Aren't DisclosingA new study shows how authors of medical journal articles flout rules on revealing conflicts of interestBUILT-IN LIMITATIONSSome journal editors gripe that there's only so much they can do. Once they issue disclosure rules, they have no choice but to trust authors to follow them. "I'm not a cop. I'm not the FBI," says Dr. Catherine DeAngelis, editor-in-chief of the Journal of the American Medical Assn. With several thousand authors contributing every year to her publication, DeAngelis says, she can't expect her editors to research every disclosure to determine whether it's accurate. And she's frustrated so many authors are resisting the call to disclose. "It should be a no-brainer," DeAngelis says. "It doesn't mean the worthiness of the paper is marred. But if they're not disclosing because they think it's marred, then maybe it is." Transparency has some built-in limitations. If all authors consistently disclosed every possible conflict of interest, the world would be awash in information that's hard to interpret. After all, most disclosure statements don't say how much money the authors receive, whether they're paid in cash and/or stock, or what services they provide in return. "The whole system is pretty slipshod," says Dr. Jerome P. Kassirer, former editor-in-chief of The New England Journal of Medicine and author of On the Take: How Medicine's Complicity with Big Business Can Endanger Your Health. "When you know an author has a conflict of interest, you're still in the dark." Join a debate about whether physicians should accept gifts from drugmakers. |
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Maxximo
Member |
19-May-2008 19:22
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But the fact stilll remains: - So many interesting stories .... yet share price not moving northward instead going south ... - FY08 end result coming soon on the 26th May (Monday) .... and no price movement at all as the date draw nearer. Not a very good sign but at least, there are no dumping .... - And looking at the current price movement ... is very de-moralising especially when results is drawing near ...... - Share price suppose to be forward looking .... So, if BIG future is projected to be glamour then the FY08 results which supposed to be in the red will be of no importance. Thus, i think the BB or insitutional player are still not comfortable with BIG in some ways or they know things which we don't ???? - Also, there are other DES players around and so competition remains ..... so what if your "deliverables" is good, it doesn't mean much when you are small. (i'm selling equipment with spec. that are far more superior than some of the BIG MNC company, so what ..... customer still choose them as the their branding is solid .... Just like IBM ..... IT engineer always have the mind set that use IBM will be safe ... cos even you screw up .. is alright cos everyone are using IBM wat.) - So, if BIG is going to make it "BIG".... they must really bang hard on Marketing and Branding ... and all this takes "significant time" to build up. Hope this coming results will shed more lights into what BIG is heading and their plan. I'm also holding on patiently to BIG but if BIG mgmt still dun buck up .... then good luck to all BIG supporters. Cheers. Looking forward eagerly for BIG coming result annoucement. Above not an inducement to trade. |
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bengster68
Master |
17-May-2008 23:12
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Bro Eastwind, can you be more specific and fill in the blanks for us in your item "F": f. Because the Chinese are not stupid, they must have agreed to get paid in kind as opposed to hard cash because ............? This JWMS thing is very complex and many angles to look at it. Do you still think JNJ stand a chance to buy over BIG if MDT and Wei Gao gang refuses to sell their BIG shares even after a solid $3 takeover offer has been tabled by JNJ? Maybe MDT can strike a deal with JNJ like patent breach waiver for MDT's future Zotarolimus drug on biodegradable polymer on the acceptance of JNJ's offer? |
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jackjames
Elite |
17-May-2008 19:12
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Yes, Hulumas, I tend to agree with you at this point.
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bengster68
Master |
17-May-2008 18:59
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Sorry, Medtronic pumped in US$221m for a 15% stake in WeiGao on 18/12/2007. I got the clue and wake up call from Bro EastWind and that is why i came to the conclusion that Medtronic must be also a strong contender for takeover of BIG for WeiGao to do such a share swap deal with BIG. Anything that WeiGao does must have the blessings of Medtronic. Medtronic's interests are also Wei Gao's interests. Both are the same gang.
This Dr Jack Wang guy must be close to Wei Gao also since they are founding partners of China JWMS. So i believe MDT has a certain influence over Dr Jack Wang via WeiGao. 129m BIG shares under Dr Jack Wang, 120m + 40m + 20m BIG shares under WeioGao in total equals 309m BIG shares. I think thats around 20% of BIG's fully enlarged potential shares (issued shares plus all outstanding share options, convertible loan stock, etc.). MDT and gang is already a "King Maker" in BIG's takeover deal. EastWind has a view that it is Medtronic is the number one takeover buyer instead of JNJ. Jialat like that how? Ok lah 50% to JNJ, 50% to MDT lah. Both split BIG's technology and patents. Big American boys, fellow Mafias, don't fight over BIG please. To us small shareholders, whoever offers the highest takeover price we will sell to that person. Maybe the fate of BIG has already been determined at the second WeiGao deal. JNJ may not even has a chance to takeover BIG and have full control to exploit BIG's top class DES technology and patents. The Americans have a habit of already doing behind the scene corporate / political manouvres. Trust Medtronic to do such a move man!
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EastWind
Member |
17-May-2008 18:22
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Whether it is jack wang or weigao who sold the JWS shares to BIG is not quite relevant. The question still remains, why would they (the chinese) sell it to BIG in consideration for BIG's shares. But the fact that jack wang was and still is connected to JWS makes it very interesting indeed. | ||||
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investor
Senior |
17-May-2008 18:17
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For info only. The original 50 % share of JWMS was sold to Biosensors by Dr. Jack Wang, (co-founder of the company). Dr. Wang, I believe is now the CEO of JWMS. Information extracted from a UOBKH HK report on Shandong Weigao. |
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Hulumas
Supreme |
17-May-2008 18:17
Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!" |
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Too mush stories sometimes is simply not considered a good story!!! | ||||
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EastWind
Member |
17-May-2008 18:09
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Bro Beng, thank you once again for your very indepth facts. But you miss out the essence of what I am saying - you assume that JWS was happy to have BIG's shares because a takeover at $3 will SURELY happen and eveyone lives happily together after that. To unravel the mystery, again we have to go back in time to when the transaction happened. When BIG acquired JWS, it had no CE approval, was (and still is) burning cash, was (and still is) losing money, had no DES to sell, was (and still is) an unproven company. Yet, despite all that, JWS happily sold away their company in exchange for BIG's shares. WHY?!? Because they HOPED that a take over will happen? I dont think any sensible businessman would sell away 100% of its company in exchange for hope. Hell, earthquakes can happen suddenly and who knows what tomorrow will bring, right? Even today, now that BIG has CE approval, if I were to ask any one, if you were in charge of JWS, would you sell away your profitable company in consideration for BIG's shares in the hope that in the not too distant future, BIG can prosper or in the hope that BIG will be the subject of a takeover? So, here is the summary: a. BIG wants JWS. b. BIG has no cash to pay for the acquisiton. c. At that time, BIG has no CE approval, is losing money every year and there is no guarantee that BIG can make it. d. The Chinese are willing to sell. e. The Chinese are not stupid. f. Because the Chinese are not stupid, they must have agreed to get paid in kind as opposed to hard cash because ......? |
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bengster68
Master |
17-May-2008 17:29
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For the first 50% of JWMS which was first announced in Aug 2007 and already completed (new shares of BIG issued and registered with SGX liao), the individual Chinamen took cash of US$10m plus 129m BIG BIG shares. For the second 50%, Wei Gao took all shares. It could be because BIG cannot afford an all cash purchase. We must note that Wei Gao is also very cash rich after Medtronic injected hundreds of millions of RMB cash to have a 15% newly issued shares as MDT's strategic stake in WeiGao. So cash from BIG as a form of purchase consideration is not the main concern for WeiGao. If we study the second 50% deal involving WeiGao in detail, it has 3 distinct portion: 1. The first 30% is a straight forward share swap with 120m BIG shares. 2. The second 20% is a PUT option for a considerably lesser amount of 40m BIG shares. That means it is up to Wei Gao to exercise this put option to sell the second batch of remaining 20%. 3. BIG further grant WeiGao an option to purchase a further 20m BIG shares at a price to be determined (most likely it will be at $1.08 per share or higher). I feel the first 30% at a higher price value (120m BIG shares) is an insurance buffer to WeiGao and looks detrimental to BIG's existing shareholders for so more share dilution. Its like a sweeten deal to entice WeiGao into agreeing to let BIG takeover China JWMS. If BIG intends to list JWMS, the valuation of BIG will increase tremendously and hence it makes sense for Wei Gao to want to exercise the PUT option to exchange for 40m more BIG shares. This signficant increase of BIG's valuation may also come in the form of takeover offer by either JNJ or MDT after excellent LEADERS trial results. When someone makes a $3 offer, it will definitely make sense for WeiGao to exercise the put option as 40m BIG shares will be worth $120m cash. On top of that, WeiGao wants to have the potential to make even more via the 20m option to purchase more BIG shares. I see this as a "dessert" part of the deal. If at $3 takeover offer price, WeiGao can potentially make another ($3-$1.08) X 20m shares = $38.4m cash profit (all sponsored by JNJ or MDT). I hope my analysis can help us to demistify this complex 120m share swap, 40m put option and additional 20m option deal with WeiGao with regards to acquisition of the second 50% of China JWMS. |
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EastWind
Member |
17-May-2008 16:38
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I have been thinking about the same questions too ever since news of the deal broke out. I think to get the answers, instead of asking the obvious question why JWS would sell, ask another more cryptic question - why would JWS want BIG's shares instead of hard currency?
To put it another way around - if you were a businessman in charge of a profitable enterprise, and someone wants to buy your shares, you would: a. not wanna sell because you believe that your business is a goldmine. b. sell for cash in return. In this case, JWS did not choose option a or b. Instead, it is very curious that they sold and settled for payment FULLY in BIG's shares. This must mean that they sold NOT because they did NOT believe that their china business is NOT a goldmine. IF JWS thought that their business is not good, they would have sold for cash, right? This is what any sensible businessman would do.
So, putting yourself in JWS's shoes, why would you sell your whole company and not want to be paid in cash? By settling for stock, you run the risk that BIG might never make it, or its shares remain depressed and you would have therefore given away your company for little or even nothing.
So, unless JWS made this deal with BIG in a drunken stupour after a heavy drinking session (which I am assuming that they did not), what is it in BIG that they see to be so confident to sell away the whole company for stock?
If you can connect the dots, you would have gotten the answers to your questions. I must say it would be very, very interesting to see how this works out.
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bengster68
Master |
17-May-2008 14:03
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China JWMS is clearly in breach of BIG's "limus on biodegradable polymer" patent. I mentioned before the holder of this patent can arm twist smaller companies to sell to them. EXCEL DES uses Sirolimus drug on biodegradable polymer. I think BIG can apply to stop sale of EXCEL DES for patent breach but legal process in China can be very long with no end. China is also well-known as a country with little IP rights protection. There could be something that Medtronic see in BIG to allow the share swap deal between JWMS and BIG. A few months ago i posted an analysis on Medtronic being a potential "King-Maker" in BIG's takeover deal and there is also a high chance that Medtronic themself is actually interested in taking over BIG as well. JNJ is still the number one candidate, Medtronic is the second most likely candidate. Both are super cash rich, both don't have good DES technology and patents. BIG is a perfect fit for either JNJ or MDT to deal with the next DES market leader: Xience (aka private label Promus if marketed under Boston Scientific) from Abbott. | ||||
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PensionAlterEgo
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17-May-2008 13:36
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Speaking about takeovers.. I think the idea of BIG being acquired by JNJ looks a little bit complicated. If the China deal goes through, then Weigao will own part of BIG's shares. Which actually means that Medtronic will own part of BIG since Medtronic owns part of Weigao. So if JNJ is to buy BIG, is there any complication? Can Weigao under the influence of Medtronic try to block such sales..? (I am assuming Weigao will be a significant shareholder with 14% shares) I am trying to make some sense of this entire JWMS deal. I wonder why would Medtronic, which is controlling part of Weigao allow Weigao to sell JWMS. Wouldn't it be beneficial for Weigao to hold on to the 50% of JWMS so that half of this steady stream of revenue can be accounted into Weigao's Balance Sheet each FY. And moreover, JWMS's market share is rising. If JWMS could capture 50% market share in China, I would estimate this to be US 200mill. So accounting US 100 mill yearly to Weigao would be more beneficial that selling it right? Instead, Weigao is settling for about 160 Million shares... which works out to be about US 80 mill based on today's share price. So why should Weigao settle for such a deal? What does Weigao see in BIG? And why Medtronic did not stop this deal..? Any comments? |
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bengster68
Master |
17-May-2008 13:00
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Although FDA appears to be "Mr Friendly and Nice Guy", we must remember Hollywood is in America and the Americans can be very good actors. I have a feeling that even if LEADERS results are very good, the big boys that wants to buy over BIG will arm-twist BIG into accepting a lower price because they can influence FDA's IDE approval. Delay Biomatrix's IDE approval further so they can press down the takover price that BIG wants. |
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bengster68
Master |
17-May-2008 12:38
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I just read an article somewhere that Xtent is pressing FDA to give them IDE to start another of their CUSTOM trial for USA market approval as Xtent's technology has the potential to solve a pressing need in the DES industry (very long lesion and multiple lesions). As for Xtent's CE, they are suppose to get their's around mid-2008 and start selling in 2H of 2008. The CE clogging has been cleared withTerumo's NOBORI and BIG's Biomatrx CE approval so technically CE shouldn't be delaying BIG's other licensees CE for too long. Xtent is also pressing CE to give them approval and i posted an article relating to this matter here somewhere in Feb 2008. When you don't have a big brother to take care of such things, regulatory approvals are very complicated. If i were to put it very bluntly, the big boys contol the market because they have influence on regulatory approval stages. Multi-billions are at stake with each and every regulatory approvals. That is way i have been saying medical device and drug industry is like a Mafia business but in the name of better quality of life of patients. Its freaking ironic. Mafia appoint judges, politicians appoint judges in Malaysia, confirm also got medical device companies behind the scene appoint regulatory approval panel and their panel of advisors. |
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bengster68
Master |
17-May-2008 11:54
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I think Genous stent's MACE rate and TLR is quite high but they "claim" it is low and comparable to early Taxus registery studies. Since they don't use drugs, i think their late-loss is very high (that is why they didn't report it). Genous is just a good class BMS, thats all. | ||||
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