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Oil prices
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teeth53
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20-Sep-2006 23:05
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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Light, sweet crude for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 66 cents to $61 a barrel in electronic trading by midafternoon in Europe, after earlier trading as low as $60.61. |
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billywows
Elite |
20-Sep-2006 22:50
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Oil falling during this period .... good time for oil stocks cos northern winter is coming! ---------------------------- |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
20-Sep-2006 11:11
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Oil prices are resuming the steepest slide in more than a decade. Oil prices have tumbled around 20% over the past two months, the steepest fall since the Gulf War in 1991. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
20-Sep-2006 09:59
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Oil prices sank to settle near a six-month low as worries about supply threats eased and signs of economic weakness in the U.S. signaled a potential cooling of energy demand. Global inventories of crude oil are rising and in the U.S. -- the world's biggest energy consumer -- demand is tapering off. "There are signs that the housing market could have a bigger impact on the economy going forward," he said. Moreover, pre-summer fears that hurricanes would disrupt Gulf of Mexico oil production have so far not materialized and speculators who had once helped to drive prices higher are now making bets on further declines. Light sweet crude for October delivery fell to US$61.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the lowest close for front-month crude futures since March 21, when oil settled at US$60.57. Oil prices have fallen 20% from a record settlement of US$78.40 a barrel on July 14. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries confirmed traders' suspicions about the impact of a slowing economy on global demand by announcing that the fourth-quarter demand for its oil would be 320,000 barrels a day lower than previously forecast. In 2007, OPEC expects demand for its crude to average 28.1m barrels per day, or 800,000 barrels per day less than the 2006 average, in part because non-OPEC supplies are rising. As a result, some analysts believe the Vienna-based cartel, which is pumping close to 30m barrels a day, may soon cut its output. |
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billywows
Elite |
19-Sep-2006 00:01
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Energy: The big picture
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
16-Sep-2006 00:03
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OPEC sharply lowered its expectations for demand for its crude, increasing the prospect that the group may reduce its production quotas later this year. In its monthly oil market report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut expected need for its oil in the last three months of this year by 320,000 barrels a day from its month-ago estimate, to 28.86m barrels per day.
Light, sweet crude for October delivery fell to $62.94 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by afternoon in Europe. In other Nymex trading, natural gas was down to $4.786 per 1,000 cubic feet, heating oil was up fractionally at $1.7125 a gallon and unleaded gasoline was up less than a tenth of a cent at $1.5529 a gallon. Natural gas futures plunged 10% to a two-year low after U.S. government data showed record supplies. The "selling was about natural gas prices," said analyst Phil Flynn at Alaron Trading Corp. "The Nigerian news was another reason to sell." |
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Livermore
Master |
15-Sep-2006 23:26
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This Week In Petroleum: Oil Prices Continue to DropSeptember 13, 2006 -- In the last 5 weeks, since August 7, oil prices, both for crude oil and petroleum products, have dropped substantially. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has fallen from $77 per barrel to below $64 per barrel. Retail gasoline prices have dropped 42 cents per gallon to $2.62 as of September 11, while retail diesel fuel prices, at $2.86 per gallon, are now about 20 cents per gallon lower than they were 5 weeks ago. Will the declines continue, or will they begin to level off and possibly increase later this year?According to EIA?s most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook released yesterday, EIA expects the price of WTI crude oil during the fourth quarter of 2006 to average around $70 per barrel, gasoline prices to average below $2.60 per gallon, and diesel prices to approach $2.80 per gallon by the end of the year. EIA is expecting the recent price decline to slow, with prices then leveling off and possibly increasing later this year. This outlook reflects our analysis of the factors driving the current price decline. For gasoline markets, the price drop that normally arrives after Labor Day and usually extends through the end of the year began a few weeks early, as the market entered the last few weeks of August with no hurricanes threatening petroleum infrastructure, such as refineries or pipelines, and with enough supplies on hand to get through Labor Day. As a result, the sell-off started before Labor Day, as along with the expected seasonal demand drop, rising refinery runs, and high import levels, markets perceived an improving supply/demand balance, pushing down prices. Currently, the near-month futures price of a barrel of gasoline is only $1 to $2 above that of a barrel of crude oil, an unusually low margin that is likely to increase over the coming months. Diesel prices have not dropped as much as gasoline, mostly because diesel demand tends to be strong in the fall with agricultural use of diesel increasing as crops are harvested, and the similarity of diesel to heating oil often causes diesel prices to rise in conjunction with heating oil as the winter approaches. Thus, declines in diesel prices have been limited to those caused by the decline in crude oil prices. Unless the U.S. economy starts showing signs of a significant slowdown, which would slow oil demand growth, or an unusually warm winter in the northern hemisphere that depresses heating-related demand, the opportunity for further improvement in crude oil markets appears to be limited. The global balance is expected to remain relatively tight as long as global demand continues to increase at a faster pace than non-OPEC supply, limiting gains in global spare production capacity, which implies that the downward trend in prices is likely to stop or reverse if one of the many potential sources of supply trouble flares up or if product pressures from heating fuels pulls up crude oil prices once cold weather begins in earnest. Regardless of what the future holds, U.S. consumers can take some comfort from the fact that U.S. average regular gasoline prices have dropped sharply over the last five weeks, and that crude oil prices are as low as they have been in several months. Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy |
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Livermore
Master |
15-Sep-2006 19:05
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VIENNA : High oil prices are still being propped up by a shortage of refinery capacity and there is little sign of the bottleneck easing until 2010, industry executives and officials discussing OPEC's future have warned.
That potential respite relies on the unlikely prospect all 66 refineries planned by oil companies and producers being built, as well as a total of about 300 billion dollars in investment by 2015, they added. "The need for downstream capacity is just as important as other issues," said Claude Mandil, executive director of the International Energy Agency at a two-day conference which was continuing Wednesday. "There is a general recognition now that no spare capacity in refining together with no spare capacity in crude production are the key factors we have to manage on high prices," he added. Mandil said: "If everything goes well, we could witness starting 2010 some spare capacity in refining. I say if - this is a huge question mark." The 11 nations in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries are pumping out about 30 million barrels of crude oil per day, according to recent data. A quota for 10 of them is set at a 25-year record high, to cope with strong global demand boosted by China 's emerging economy in recent years. Prices have fallen back from a 78 dollar peak in July in response to fears that global economic growth and therefore demand for energy is about to tail off. However, they are still high - around the 63 dollar mark. "Current downstream tightness in the form of inadequate refining capacity is putting much pressure on oil prices generally," said Mohamed Barkindo, acting secretary general for OPEC. No new refineries have been built in the United States for 30 years and for about 20 years in Europe , said Shukri Ghanem, head of Libya's National Oil Corporation. "With so much uncertainty regarding oil demand in the short term, no one can tell for sure whether all or part of this investment will materalise during the next five years," Ghanem said. Refinery capacity is essential to transform crude into petrol (gasoline), diesel, or household fuel. A shortage of spare refining capacity adds to overall supply bottlenecks. "There are 66 refineries being considered for construction, I have some doubts whether all of these will go through," Mandil said. Barkindo said 160 billion dollars needed to be ploughed into downstream capacity within 10 years, and another 150 billion dollars for maintenance and replacement. "Such amounts are not forthcoming: there is an investment gap of something like 100 billion dollars," he added. Saudi Arabia 's Oil Minister Ali al-Nuami told the conference that "prudence" was to be expected while crude prices were so volatile. "It is estimated that a difference of just one million barrels per day of projected production from OPEC entails an over or under investment of 8.0 billion dollars by 2010 and about 15 billion dollars by 2025," he explained. OPEC has long been looking to oil companies to make the kind of investment that provided large amounts of spare capacity in the 1970s. However, they were offered little respite from the Anglo-Dutch giant Shell. Chief executive Jeroen van der Veer said there were expectations of unlimited investment from industry. "This is not how we look at it at Shell," he told the conference. The refinery industry faces added challenges. On the consumer's end of the chain, more stringent energy efficiency and environmental standards translate into an upgraded need for highly refined cleaner fuels, officials said. And Nuami pointed out that on the production side, the kind of crude oil being extracted is becoming heavier and sourer, requiring even more extensive and costly refining before it is turned into fuel for transport and industry. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
15-Sep-2006 17:23
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Oil prices were softer as concern about supply eased further following the release of the latest figures on the US stockpile, dealers said. At 10.50 am here (0250 GMT), New York's main contract, light sweet crude for October delivery, was at US$63.06. "The price has fallen, but I'm surprised that it didn't fall more on Wednesday," said Tony Nunan, a Tokyo-based manager for energy risk management with Mitsubishi Corp. "The US Department of Energy statistics were bearish for distillates stocks, which were much higher than last year's," he said. Dealers said a report showing a strong build-up in US natural gas inventories -- which are now 12% above the levels normal for this time of year -- highlighted the overall easing of tensions in the energy market. Natural gas futures fell below US$5.00 per million British thermal units to their lowest point since 2004, dropping 10% in a single day. "It was a huge build. Natural gas prices are falling and dragging the rest of the market down," said Mike Fitzpatrick at Fimat USA. "It looks like the psychology right now favors lower energy prices." The market was also reacting to news that unions had called off their strike in Nigeria, Africa's biggest crude producer. They had called a three-day strike from Wednesday to protest unrest in the volatile Niger Delta region, where the country's oil lies. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
14-Sep-2006 23:39
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Executives from Exxon Mobil and Saudi state-owned Aramco have argued in recent speeches that the world's supply of oil is adequate for decades, thereby attacking the "peak oil" theory that oil supply has reached a plateau while demand continues to rise. Aramco CEO Abdallah S. Jum'ah claimed at an OPEC seminar yesterday that the earth's potential oil supply is 5.7 trillion barrels, of which only a trillion, or 18%, has so far been produced. That leaves over 140 years' supply at current output rates. In a separate speech, Exxon's Australia chief, Mark Nolan, cited a US Geological Survey estimate that the earth's capacity is over three trillion barrels of oil, of which one trillion have been produced. He argued that heavy and shale oil could add another trillion barrels to the supply, and a 10% increase in recoverability another 800 million barrels. The WSJ article notes, however, that both calculations are based on optimistic assumptions. 3.5 trillion of the 4.7 trillion available barrels that Mr. Jum'ah cited, for example, will depend on new technologies, and global demand is forecast to rise from today's 84.8 million barrels per day to to about 100 million in 2015.
The peak oil theory plus forecasts of rising demand from China and India have provided the intellectual justification for the sharp rise in oil prices over the last few years. But sentiment, rather than current supply and demand, arguably added a speculative boost to the oil price which is now unwinding. The most prominent investor to question the run-up in oil and other commodity prices earlier this year was Bill Miller (see his detailed argument). His views now look precient, though his timing resulted in short-term under-performance for his fund. The easiest way to play a pull-back in oil prices is with the US Oil ETF, though David Fry says it's hard to borrow. For more discussion of peak oil and its implications, see views from UtiliPoint, Houston Geological Society Bulletin editor Arthur Berman, Prudent Investor and Paul Kedrosky. Separately, Morgan Stanley economist Steve Roach declared earlier this week that the "mega-run for commodities has run its course." The price of oil is down 18% since its August highs after BP said it would shut down the Prudhoe Bay oil field in Alaska. More from Steve Roach here. |
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billywows
Elite |
13-Sep-2006 22:43
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U.S. crude supply falls; gasoline supply up: Energy Dept.
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Livermore
Master |
13-Sep-2006 22:33
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In a earlier post, I mentioned that refining capacity wll be tight until 2010 even though new refineries might be ready soon in some parts of the world. There was a headline tonight on channel new asia about refining bottleneck until 2010. New refineries might be ready soon in India. But just read what is happening in today's newspaper in India itself. India is on the road to becoming a major car maker as many people in India have growing disposable income. |
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chipchip66
Master |
13-Sep-2006 17:55
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Will lower oil prices promote car sales?? COE will definitely go up! Maybe for those who is going to buy, you may want to visit their show rooms now!! |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
13-Sep-2006 17:47
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Oil prices have fallen as much asUS $16 from their peaks, their steepest reversal in 16 years, in a correction that traders say may be harder to shake off than past setbacks over the market's 4-year rally.
In real terms Brent has fallen US$16.02 since it hit a high of US$78.65 on Aug. 8 - its biggest decline from peak to trough since prices fell just ahead of the first Gulf War in late 1990. Brent is down more than 20% from its peak, meeting the technical criteria for the start of a bear market. U.S. crude has dropped nearly US$15 to hit a near six-month low of $63.53 a barrel on Wednesday, a fall only a hair smaller than those in Aug-Nov 2005 and Oct-Dec 2004. In those cases, oil recovered to make new highs within five and eight months, respectively. In percentage terms there have been bigger stumbles on oil's recent ascent, propelled steadily higher since 2002 by the war in Iraq, soaring Chinese demand, constrained oilfield and refinery production, devastating U.S. Gulf Coast hurricanes, and most recently fears of a disruption to Iran's exports. But some say this setback may prove more lasting. "Even though we've retraced certain percentages similar to this, it definitely seems that the market is different now," says New York-based ABN AMRO broker John Brady. "Other times I saw (the corrections) leading to great buy opportunities, but I don't necessarily think that this time." Technical analysts who study past price action for future direction, say the drop through the 200-day MA last week and this week's fall below a three-year trend line - intact since mid-2003 - both send worrying signals. They say that the global environment is different than 2 or 3 years ago, when central banks were aiding liquidity with low interest rates and investors were seeking alternatives to sluggish equity and fixed-income markets. Tighter conditions from Japan to the United States may now limit the kind of investor influx that helped oil get back on track in each of the market's past corrections, while economic growth appears to be slowing, not accelerating. Lastly the market has been in a contango structure for nearly two years, forcing the growing number of passive long-only investors to pay up each time they roll their positions forward -- a potential deterrent for investing more. While many analysts say the worst may not be over yet in the latest shake-out, most also agree that there remains scope for another attempt at surpassing the previous summit. "If the fall is fast enough and hard enough, then there's momentum selling on the other side -- that can have a sustained influence on prices, weeks or months," says Tobin Gorey, commodities strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "I do think this dip could well outdo those last two falls, but I don't think it destroys the story." |
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teeth53
Supreme |
13-Sep-2006 08:10
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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Oil price drop another US$2/- to US$63.76, Iran said it would like it px to stick at about US$64/- per barrel. Other said about US$50-60. Oil px has since drop by 20% but oil retailer in S'pore drop only 6cents, isit abit to much to ask for another 6cents discount?, not at all. |
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teeth53
Supreme |
12-Sep-2006 23:51
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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US mkt fading into recession?? however Mr Ben can and will make must mkt do not go into hard landing pending it housing loan mkt, oil as well as coming congression election. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
12-Sep-2006 23:46
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The International Energy Agency lowered its world oil product demand forecasts for 2006 and 2007, amid sweeping declines in oil prices over the past month, and said oil consumption may be slowing for the first time in 7 years. Oil prices have declined nearly 20% from July's record highs, and the IEA said the key question now is whether this fall "marks the top of oil's seven-year bull market rally or is merely a pause before reaching greater heights". The agency noted a downgrading of hurricane forecasts, improved prospects for damaged oil fields in Alaska, receding tensions over Iran's nuclear programme and the effects of high prices on consumer behaviour has taken some of the heat out of the oil market. It added that the risks to global economic growth "are increasing" and therefore "the risks to oil product demand growth projections have also risen". In its monthly report for September, the Paris-based energy watchdog lowered its 2006 world oil product demand forecast by 100,000 bpd to 84.7m bpd and reduced its 2007 demand forecast by 160,000 bpd to 86.2m bpd. The revisions imply a 1.3% oil demand growth rate for 2006 and 1.8% for 2007. The IEA said North America accounted for most of the change in its forecasts, with large revisions to both US and Mexican demand, while milder, rainy weather dampened Asian demand. Turning to supply, the agency trimmed its 2006 non-OPEC supply forecast by 60,000 bpd to 51.0m bpd and lowered its 2007 forecast by 145,000 bpd to 52.8m bpd, citing lower output from the North Sea, Mexico, Brazil and Angola. It said the "call on OPEC crude and stock change", or demand for OPEC crude supply, remains unchanged from last month's report at 28.9m bpd for 2006 and 28.4m bpd for 2007. The agency noted the 2007 call on OPEC forecast is 0.5m bpd lower than the 2006 forecast, but said this has to be seen in the context of very tight OPEC spare capacity and a high amount of underlying data uncertainty that is likely to unravel in the months ahead. These include the risks to global economic growth and the duration of the tightness in diesel and jet markets, which in the IEA's opinion is likely to lessen only in the medium term. They also include the potential for hurricane damage, which has been downgraded but is still a danger, and the still high geopolitical and project completion risks. "In addition, for policymakers the message is still clear - more transparency would help reduce uncertainty, help planning and possibly, in the current circumstances, even reduce prices." Turning to the impact of high prices on consumer behaviour, the IEA said US "consumers appear to be switching to cheaper grades" of gasoline while "there has also been an increase in the use of public transportation in large metropolitan areas". On the other hand, however, US demand for diesel remained strong in July and although demand for airliner fuel was weak, this reflected measures by airlines to reduce their costs. The IEA said that in Japan sales of so-called "mini-vehicles" were strong, rising for the seventh month in a row in July, while Chinese "apparent" demand for oil remained strong in July. |
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alto26
Member |
12-Sep-2006 09:45
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notice that all the oil related shares, even keppel huge drop today. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
12-Sep-2006 00:31
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US crude falls below US$65, lowest since end Mar. |
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billywows
Elite |
12-Sep-2006 00:11
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OPEC officially keeps production quota unchanged
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